All this VIX juice and can't even reclaim the lows from Friday and Monday. Hopefully that's a good sign.

flashplayer said:

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Other than a liquidity surge via a covid like giveaway, there's not really a thing either party can do short term to boost the broader market. It will ebb and flow on its own. The shutdown means next to nothing big picture.

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Know what is scary? The totality of the US stock market is ~$63T. The top 10 US companies make up ~$23.2T of that. Over 1/3 of the US total stock market cap is in just 10 companies...

MrWonderful said:

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Regionals have been super aggressive with loan underwriting for the last couple of years. Between regionals taking it in the shorts, and the fed comments on liquidity, consumer sentiment, there are some cracks starting to show.

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I think that private credit is going to be the bigger issue, I spend most of my time these days working with PE portfolio companies funded by the Antares & Blue Owls of the world and feel like someone is going to holding a big bag for many of these deals sooner than later.

Agreed with that, the regionals being aggressive has pushed private credit to some extreme leverage positions, and seems like there's a big focus on unitranche debt (vs a turn of mezz on a lot of different companies) which means they are more exposed to individual businesses than ever before.

Good cheat sheet https://t.co/K9DTnzoJsI

— Scott Redler (@RedDogT3) October 16, 2025

Howdy….

So….VIX 25+

1D, 4H, 1H

Trader? Opportunity ahead if you execute.

Not the best look dropping the channel and being rejected…more than once. VIX 25+ and if I was a trader I would at least have a trading plan for tomorrow with targets. RR levels and targets shown. 50EMA depending on 'tweets' looks fun.

But…I'm rusty…

Trade wisely!

Heineken-Ashi said:

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People still don't quite understand how much exposure there is to shadow banks (NDFI's). Most of these also have massive exposure to CRE that is already dead but hasn't been reported yet. And many have triple exposure to the numerous other rotten debt and credit segments in this country.

Banks are going to take it on the chin. I've been saying it for years. And it's going to screw everyone in this country.

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The ndfi mortgage exposure is still too broad to have any clear understanding. Just off the top of my head, it includes:
- mortgage warehouse (short term and mostly traditional SFR)
- commercial bridge loans
- fix and flip
- owner occupied RE
- tax lien loans

In each of these spaces, there are borrowers that range from conservative to aggressive. And Banks that are conservative and some that are aggressive.

Where ive seen these companies struggle is when they sacrifice diligence and credit standards to achieve a return. They also over leverage at banks (I've seen some offer 90% advance rates) which gives no room to work out problem loans.

It's going to be interesting to watch. As banks consolidate, they'll get more conservative. Which will drive more private credit. Which will get bank leverage.

Hot take but I am bullish for the foreseeable future, at least through 2026 and 2027. Semi's, small cap miners, and nuclear are my trending rotations for the next few years until I see otherwise.

Liquidity will keep fueling the fire as there is still too much $$$ sitting on the sidelines right now. Every dip keeps getting bought back with ferocity. The money supply is too large. Cash is trash at this point.

Still in for the long term on Bitcoin in retirement accounts. Not too worried about its action in the near term.

Your canary is down 6% and broke a short term support level since you posted that. It's tweeting like a mfer right now.

It's no where close to this yet but $95k is the big one I'm watching for next.

flashplayer said:

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Fear greed index flashing near extreme fear. Last time it did this looks to have been December before we went higher into the February selloff and then into April's liberation day low. Do we still get a breather bounce and chance to liquidate before everything goes on sell for some potential huge gains?

My gut says we have another down day tomorrow then everyone realizes over the weekend that the world isn't ending and we surge back to ATH next week as earnings continue to show strength.

But then again, bitcoin seems like it has been serving as kind of a canary lately and it's up 1% tonight, so maybe it's the opposite of what I think.

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every "expert" financial host keeps trying to force an economic depression with comparisons to 1999

but then every single actual metric shows there is fear and trepidation about this market and NOT irrational exuberance!

the valuations are coming due to reporting companies beating on the top and bottom line, not because PETS.COM just was offered a billion dollar IPO.