AggiEE said:

---

Gigemags382 said:

---

deadbq03 said:

---

Gigemags382 said:

---

How is TSLA at 3/4 the value of AMZN?!

---

Basically the same reason GME can still be 40x its Summer 2020 value.

Fundamentals are dead.

---

Granted, Amazon itself was the king of "fundamentals are dead" criticism for years

---

Just goes to show you how much speculation is abound in this market. It's surpassed the 2000s in certain aspects

Not going to end well for many

---

Your takes have been spot on on TSLA...keep it up!

Been a bit nervous on this one lately and went net free today. Granted I only have 20 shares left but feel a little better getting my money back.

edit - spelling

I have never seen more idiotic comments on a easy to analyze stock. Average selling price of a Tesla in 2025 around $40000 per unit, times 5 million cars per year ( increase this number by 50% each year) equals 20 Billion in revenue, assign Tesla a conservative multiple of 100 you have a 2 Trillion dollar company and a $2000 per share stock price ( bear case because it does consider robotaxi, Tesla Insurance, Tesla energy, the Tesla Robot, etc.,etc.,etc.

12thmanfootball said:

---

I have never seen more idiotic comments on a easy to analyze stock. Average selling price of a Tesla in 2025 around $40000 per unit, times 5 million cars per year ( increase this number by 50% each year) equals 20 Billion in revenue, assign Tesla a conservative multiple of 100 you have a 2 Trillion dollar company and a $2000 per share stock price ( bear case because it does consider robotaxi, Tesla Insurance, Tesla energy, the Tesla Robot, etc.,etc.,etc.

---

What is the net income on this 200 billion in revenue?

Toyotas revenue was 270 billion in 2020.

Toyota market cap 300 billion with 270 billion in revenue.
Tesla market cap 1,000 billion with 30 billion revenue.

You may choose only one of the answers below, pick the one you most agree with.
Toyota is undervalued
Tesla is overvalued.

Tesla is overvalued.

I have a personal return on Tesla of 1000%+

Malachi Constant said:

---

Tesla is overvalued.

I have a personal return on Tesla of 1000%+

---

I do admire investors like yourself who can profit off of overvalued companies by riding the momentum, but also recognize the company is overvalued.

Seems to be in pretty bad faith to use year end 2020 revenues for year end 2021 valuations for a company that grew revenues by ~60% YOY vs a company that grew by 10% YOY.

Tesla is the market leader in an emerging market, while Toyota is the market leader in a declining market. They shouldn't be valued the same on the same amount of revenue. You're not buying a stock based upon what they have done, you're buying it based upon what you expect them to do, and absent some pretty significant attitude changes it, to my eyes, appears that Toyota is headed for some pretty serious declines over the next decade while Tesla is headed for serious growth.

12thmanfootball said:

---

I have never seen more idiotic comments on a easy to analyze stock. Average selling price of a Tesla in 2025 around $40000 per unit, times 5 million cars per year ( increase this number by 50% each year) equals 20 Billion in revenue, assign Tesla a conservative multiple of 100 you have a 2 Trillion dollar company and a $2000 per share stock price ( bear case because it does consider robotaxi, Tesla Insurance, Tesla energy, the Tesla Robot, etc.,etc.,etc.

---

Cathie Wood is that you?

hph6203 said:

---

Seems to be in pretty bad faith to use year end 2020 revenues for year end 2021 valuations for a company that grew revenues by ~60% YOY vs a company that grew by 10% YOY.

Tesla is the market leader in an emerging market, while Toyota is the market leader in a declining market. They shouldn't be valued the same on the same amount of revenue. You're not buying a stock based upon what they have done, you're buying it based upon what you expect them to do, and absent some pretty significant attitude changes it, to my eyes, appears that Toyota is headed for some pretty serious declines over the next decade while Tesla is headed for serious growth.

---

So with 270 billion revenue Tesla do you think growth will still be 50%?
Do you think Toyota and others can't shift to electric cars?

If we use the ratio between revenue and price Tesla would be a 10 trillion dollar market cap at Toyota revenue. It is nonsense.

The path from 500k vehicle sales (Tesla) to 10 million (Toyota) is a long one.

Yes I think they'll grow at that rate. I think their competitors don't understand how quickly the transition is going to come. Some of them are catching on. Ford just doubled their production estimates for 2023, they will only be 1/5th of what Tesla is projected to produce that year.

Tesla is going to deliver over 850,000 vehicles this year, not 500,000. By the end of next year they'll have an annual production rate of 2 million. The factories are already built, they just have to begin production/ramp to capacity, which took a year for the Shanghai factory. Both of those factories were completed in under 18 months and each added 500,000 vehicle capacity. Both were announced before Tesla was regularly turning a profit/adding cash to their balance sheet.

When Ford's CEO says Tesla is kicking their ass, you should listen.

When VW's CEO says Tesla is kicking their ass, you should
listen.

When Democrats are going against their party platform to appease their party donors, because the company is growing so fast, you should pay attention.

Toyota is the last company I'm worried about for competition to Tesla. They've announced one electric vehicle, and have dragged their feet in transitioning, because they invested so heavily in hybrid and hydrogen technologies.



I think you underestimate how different engineering an electric vehicle is than a combustion vehicle. You're far more constrained on energy efficiency, you can't just put in a larger gas tank and call it as good. That's where most of Tesla's competitors fail, and the ones that aren't failing there are failing in the financials of the vehicle. None of them are putting together the full package the way Tesla is and most of them are pumping out cars comparable to what Tesla released in 2015. When Tesla first built the roadster they thought they could just do some part swaps, but by the time the vehicle was delivered they had replaced 90% of the components.

Why does that matter? Because if the vehicle sucks, no one will buy it, and if the financials don't work on a good vehicle the manufacturers won't want to sell it. Tesla's production ramp will be faster than any of the competitors will transition production and consumer demand will be and has been better than people expected.

I'm doubling down on my double down

So where will Tesla get all the lithium needed for these lofty goals? Are we going to turn a blind eye of the obvious pressure against gas by the current administration to prop up the need or even desire for electric cars? Musk just happens to benefit from this trend and couldn't possibly be in support of such trends or even aiding them. Naww, he's cool and neat and stuff and posts cool stuff on Twitter.

Difference in being pro business and pro labor.

100% agreed

Excellent points, thank you for clearing that up for me.

Appreciate you for your reading of my arguments, you're not wrong that lithium production is a constraint on the adoption of electric vehicles, but my perspective is that it's not as much of a constraint on Tesla as it's core to their overall business, but a constraint on the wider adoption of EVs as an alternative mode of transportation. They have massive influence in the space because of their demand levels.

Companies like Ford and GM are going to have more issues with that reality than Tesla, because Tesla has established themselves as the largest consumer of lithium batteries, which establishes themselves at the front of the line of that production, because suppliers can rely on them as a consistent purchaser of those raw materials. Other manufacturers are merely dipping their toes into the sector.

If your concern is on the overall production of EVs it's a valid concern, but I don't think that Tesla will ultimately be the victim of supply constraints.

I think EVs are the future, but I think their competitors have rosoy projections on their ability to fulfill their orders to meet their expected growth in the market, which is part of the reason why I'm not concerned when people suggest that major manufacturers of combustion vehicles pose a major threat to Tesla's growth over the next decade.

Tesla will get the lions share of that production while other autos will struggle to meet their goals, because Tesla is at the front of the line. Tesla has a competitive advantage in that regard, because they were the first mover in the space and have proven they are successful in it.

It's just certainly not a case where government officials have their thumb on the scale propping up Tesla, because they are currently signaling they intend to do the opposite, they're in bed with unions. It doesn't matter, because Tesla's engineering and business integration is far superior to other companies that have stablished business models that place them in a spot where they're sipping their toes rather than going all in.

It's similar to when Apple launched the iPhone, people thought Nokia and Blackberry would ultimately catch up and crush Apple's efforts, but we all saw how that played out.


If you ask me GM, Toyota and BMW are in trouble, Ford is waking up to the future. I'm not optimistic about GM and Toyotas long term futures. That doesn't mean they'll be out of business in 5 years, but I think they will start to be distressed within 5 years.

I think Tesla is a company that is aimed at changing society, rather than just changing how our vehicles use and store transportation energy, which is why I think it's worthwhile investing in the company.


I put 11,000 in Tesla in a leap in Feb 2020, sold that option in September of 2020 for 95,000 (had I held it it would've been worth over 200,000), bought back into a leap in November of 2020 for 21,000 that's valued at 58,000 today. I also hold an additional 15,000 in stock. That initial leap allowed me to pay off half of my mortgage and I intend on holding the current leap until expiration or 2,000 stock price, whichever comes first.

I don't think 10 trillion by 2030 is out of the realm of possibility, I'm just not aggressive enough to make that assumption because there are many things that can go wrong.

I can say that my Tesla is by far the best car with the least amount of maintenance I have had. It blows my X5 in every aspect other than high end finish that people may like but the clean look is fine with me. The seats in the Tesla is by far the most comfortable.

I have had two minor service calls and both were seamless. No other maintenance, only had tires changed in 40K miles. There are no service maintenance schedules, just bring it in if there are any issues. No fluid to change other than wiper. I have saved hours not going to a gas station, supercharged twice.

I have a great deal of money in Tsla, just added some more last week. They have many advantages that other legacies do not have. I believe they are over valued as a car company, but if you look at Rivian and Lucid, TSLA is a bargain.

What many people are missing, and this point is debatable, is Tsla is much more than a car company compared to Rivian and Lucid which are crazy over priced.

Tsla has
Autonomy/AI
Solar
Energy storage
Battery production
Insurance
Tesla phone

People may think Tesla phone will never challenge the Iphone, but Tesla car owners will have an incentive to purchase one if it is uniquely integrated with the car. Also, if the phone has proprietary use with starlink, then everyone with poor cell tower service will buy one. This is a potentially huge market for Tesla.

Irish 2.0 said:

---

AggiEE said:

---

Gigemags382 said:

---

deadbq03 said:

---

Gigemags382 said:

---

How is TSLA at 3/4 the value of AMZN?!

---

Basically the same reason GME can still be 40x its Summer 2020 value.

Fundamentals are dead.

---

Granted, Amazon itself was the king of "fundamentals are dead" criticism for years

---

Just goes to show you how much speculation is abound in this market. It's surpassed the 2000s in certain aspects

Not going to end well for many

---

Your takes have been spot on on TSLA...keep it up!

---

Gamblers in a gambling market gonna gamble

I ain't shorting the stock, neither is Michael Burry, because speculative manias are like cults to some people and can last a long time. I can't predict when the cult will finally take their last sip of kool aid.

Tesla's a good company. It's not a 1.2T company. The marginal buyers are using lofty growth assumptions (higher than AMZN performed by multiples over), and they are not using reasonable DCF models to base their purchase price. There is no price at which TSLA is a bad buy, in other words. 10T is in the cards, yada yada. Good luck with all that. My exposure remains limited to whatever portion it's in for my index funds

Oh but they are "changing the world", well sort of but not really. Still going from A to B, just now fueled by natural gas largely. It's more efficient than ICE, which is good. But still going to point A to point B. I'm only interested once total cost of ownership and transport for cheaper models is less expensive than ICE.

As you can see I am bullish on Tsla. LEAPs are interesting to me and never done options trading but looking at the current Tsla call options for expiration 1-19-14

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/TSLA/options?expiration=2024-01-19-m

If I buy the Call option with strike $1375 (current price $1137), each contract will cost me about $330. So if I bought $33000 worth of call options, I would get 100 contracts = 100x100 = 10000 shares.

If at expiration or anytime before I execute the option:
1. Tsla below $1375 my Leap is worthless and I lost $33000
2. Tsla at $1378.30, my Leap is now worth $33000 thus I break even given the $33000 I paid for my Leap
3. Tsla at $2000, my leap is now worth $625x10000 shares = $6,250,000

Medaggie said:

---

As you can see I am bullish on Tsla. LEAPs are interesting to me and never done options trading but looking at the current Tsla call options for expiration 1-19-14

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/TSLA/options?expiration=2024-01-19-m

If I buy the Call option with strike $1375 (current price $1137), each contract will cost me about $330. So if I bought $33000 worth of call options, I would get 100 contracts = 100x100 = 10000 shares.

If at expiration or anytime before I execute the option:
1. Tsla below $1375 my Leap is worthless and I lost $33000
2. Tsla at $1378.30, my Leap is now worth $33000 thus I break even given the $33000 I paid for my Leap
3. Tsla at $2000, my leap is now worth $625x10000 shares = $6,250,000

---

off by a factor of 100. Each contract is 100 shares. Each share of each contract is $330. So, $330 x 100 x 100.

Makes sense, so break even is essentially $1700

1705 is breakeven on the option, actually returning value is quite a bit higher than that, because you have to consider the amount of the option vs how many shares you could buy with the same amount of money.

At 1150 stock price, you could buy ~29 shares with your 33,000. If the stock moves from 1150 to 1705 your stock would be valued at 49445 and the option would only be valued at 33000.

If the stock moved from 1150 to 2000 the stock would be worth 58000 (for 29 shares) and the option at expiration would be valued at 62,500, so you've returned more than the underlying stock would have.

+1 on TSLA being a good company but grossly overvalued.

The biggest issue is going to be Musk's mortality/that he has to keep selling stock to pay his taxes.

Has their executive turnover calmed down?

Any thoughts on Apple getting into the EV market as well? Musk has admitted they will be getting involved and it's an open secret.

Tibbers said:

---

Any thoughts on Apple getting into the EV market as well? Musk has admitted they will be getting involved and it's an open secret.

---

AAPL just had PR on it. It's not even an open secret

Given the money they have, they could just cherry pick what they want from any auto company.

Not sure what they will do.

An acquaintance turned down working for Tesla years ago, because it was all tech folks, and they didn't have a grasp of how to make something like a car - they've learned a lot, but the suspension on my 3P is terrible, compared to any other car I've driven.

I think Tesla pointed out how inefficient car making is.

I'm certainly not going to second guess Apple.

The self-driving on my '19 Tesla was useless/dangerous. (It came with a trial period. I turned it on, once and it promptly tried to drive under a semi, then run off the highway.). Given how poor the navigation still is, in Miami, I can't see it working for some time.

Apple does have a vastly better nav system, but I'm not sure how that relates to self-driving.

Bradley.Kohr.II said:

---

Given the money they have, they could just cherry pick what they want from any auto company.

Not sure what they will do.

An acquaintance turned down working for Tesla years ago, because it was all tech folks, and they didn't have a grasp of how to make something like a car - they've learned a lot, but the suspension on my 3P is terrible, compared to any other car I've driven.

I think Tesla pointed out how inefficient car making is.

I'm certainly not going to second guess Apple.

The self-driving on my '19 Tesla was useless/dangerous. (It came with a trial period. I turned it on, once and it promptly tried to drive under a semi, then run off the highway.). Given how poor the navigation still is, in Miami, I can't see it working for some time.

Apple does have a vastly better nav system, but I'm not sure how that relates to self-driving.

---

Self driving is the biggest risk with TSLA, so much of their valuation is wrapped up in that mirage, it's no different from Theranos claiming they have a machine that can instantly sample your blood

Fine line between visionary and fraud. Musk claims LIDAR isn't necessary and bet the farm on it but FSD looks behind competitors that have it.

Irish 2.0 said:

---

Tibbers said:

---

Any thoughts on Apple getting into the EV market as well? Musk has admitted they will be getting involved and it's an open secret.

---

AAPL just had PR on it. It's not even an open secret

---

Will their cars have FM radio disabled?

What's going on with this these days...

Malachi Constant said:

---

What's going on with this these days...

---

It's a high beta speculative growth stock the way it's been priced. The macro economic turmoil has been bearish on most stocks, especially growth. TSLA held up better and longer than most of these before it finally got under it's 50-ema and then fell rapidly after that. If the market goes up from here, TSLA should be one of the leaders. Likewise if the market goes down further, TSLA may lose a lot more value from here.

Tesla going down is a combination of its perceived high valuation, current macroeconomics which is dragging most tech stocks down, and also risks of Musk selling to buy Twitter.

The last two will resolved by the end of the year if not sooner. Their high valuation/PE will continue to go down as their earnings continue to increase.

Many on here may disagree but I believe Tsla will march higher as they continue to increase earnings.

Their current PE is high @ close to 100 and forward PE is 59. Compared to Ford that has a forward PE of 6.6
This may seem high but PE without factoring in growth doesn't tell the whole story. Add in Growth and Tsla PEG is 2 while ford is 2.2

If you look at PEG and believe that tsla will continue its growth, they seem like a bargain to me at this price.

Thus, I plan to load up on more Tsla this month as I believe the headwinds will die down and will pop once they split.

At a PE ratio of 90, I don't know what buying TSLA is but it's hard to call it investing