anyone notice the 30 year fixed mortgage rate just now?

6.2%

LMCane said:

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anyone notice the 30 year fixed mortgage rate just now?

6.2%

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Still historically doable, but woof if you missed the window on really cheap money.

While classically defined this way, we don't have to have two+ consecutive quarters for a recession to be called. The NBER can do so on a more brief downturn if deemed severe enough.

In any event, I don't think we will see a negative print this quarter and the downturn has not been severe enough to be in one currently, despite continued high inflation, rate environment, etc…

A material part of Q1's negative GDP print was due to inventory adjustment to GDP, which will be hard to repeat. Likely, inventories (imports) where overstated in Q4 and the two quarters smoothed to a significant degree is probably in order. Consumer spending was still tracking strong mid-way through the quarter, making it hard to have another down quarter, especially with a material negative inventory adjustment again unlikely.

Im much more strongly expecting 2023 before we see one.

Casey TableTennis said:

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While classically defined this way, we don't have to have two+ consecutive quarters for a recession to be called. The NBER can do so on a more brief downturn if deemed severe enough.

In any event, I don't think we will see a negative print this quarter and the downturn has not been severe enough to be in one currently, despite continued high inflation, rate environment, etc…

A material part of Q1's negative GDP print was due to inventory adjustment to GDP, which will be hard to repeat. Likely, inventories (imports) where overstated in Q4 and the two quarters smoothed to a significant degree is probably in order. Consumer spending was still tracking strong mid-way through the quarter, making it hard to have another down quarter, especially with a material negative inventory adjustment again unlikely.

Im much more strongly expecting 2023 before we see one.

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Good explanation of the current situation. Thank you!