What is the percentage possibility of a global recession within the next 2-3 years?
Possibility of a Global Recession ?
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Last: 4 yr ago by LOYAL AG
My guess it that it starts to escalate through summer and shtf in August.
Could be in a month. Could be in 10 years. Despite what they may claim, nobody really knows.
Four maybe 5
in my humble opinion... 9 months to 2 years
do not take this for investing advice in any way, shape or form
my thought is that the fed is way behind on inflation corralling... they will pick up the pace later in the year... our economy will be shocked with higher interest rates... too much free money in the market right now and many parts of the economy are a sham
party is over...
do not take this for investing advice in any way, shape or form
my thought is that the fed is way behind on inflation corralling... they will pick up the pace later in the year... our economy will be shocked with higher interest rates... too much free money in the market right now and many parts of the economy are a sham
party is over...
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Economists have predicted 11 of the last 4 recessions.
One chance in three
-M. Ramius
-M. Ramius
FAT SEXY said:
30 trillion in debt and counting.. The world itching to get away from the dollar as reserve currency.. No big deal. Nothing to see here.
Need a politician that can sell the truth about fiscal responsibility to the American people like any decent parent teaches their teenage kids vs the dumbassery that passes as politics on CNN, FoxNews...etc
Until then our path is certain.
FAT SEXY said:
30 trillion in debt and counting.. The world itching to get away from the dollar as reserve currency.. No big deal. Nothing to see here.
What can actually replace it though? Euro?
Recessions are short lived. Normally 6-12 months. Then people talk about a tough economy for five years after.
When you have to watch is when the average Joe thinks the economy is good. That's when you've got to be fearful.
When you have to watch is when the average Joe thinks the economy is good. That's when you've got to be fearful.
i'm not your normal economist...Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Economists have predicted 11 of the last 4 recessions.
They will.
Perhaps no money at all in the future, minor bartering and superior resource management would eliminate the demand of money...
But will we get there before nuclear apocolypse? Doubtful.
But will we get there before nuclear apocolypse? Doubtful.
Recessions are a part of a normal business cycle.
National debt and corporate value aren't intrinsically related. Corporate value will go up forever as long as society is functioning, as long as there is any inflation and as long as the population grows.
FAT SEXY said:
Are we thinking that this inflating fiat dollar system that we have is going to go on forever?
Yes
Like housing prices in 2007
FAT SEXY said:
Are we thinking that this inflating fiat dollar system that we have is going to go on forever?
Only two ways out of it:
1. Implosion leading to death and destruction and reset, and/or
2. Switch to crypto standard that comes with certain levels of #1.
Should be fun next few decades!
FAT SEXY said:$30,000 Millionaire said:FAT SEXY said:
Are we thinking that this inflating fiat dollar system that we have is going to go on forever?
Yes
What makes this system immune to failure?
As long as the US requires taxes to be paid in dollars, there will always be a compelling need for them
-Adverse EventAdverse Event said:
Perhaps no money at all in the future, minor bartering and superior resource management would eliminate the demand of money...
But will we get there before nuclear apocolypse? Doubtful.
How come no one else is jumping on the irony of this one?
A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week.
-George S Patton
-George S Patton
Will smith slapping Chris rock was the warning sign we all ignore about the recession
Not global per say but if we hurt… the world hurts.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/03/28/us-bonds-treasury-yields-invert-flashing-recessionary-warning-sign.html
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/03/28/us-bonds-treasury-yields-invert-flashing-recessionary-warning-sign.html
I was responding to your question if stocks will continue to rise forever.
My answer is, yes, I think stocks can go up essentially indefinitely.
not to be a smart a$$ but, as inflation goes up, then the stocks may go up as well, if nothing else just to keep even. But I think they will go up even further than rate of inflation (with occasional dips), if nothing else they will increase as population increases.
My answer is, yes, I think stocks can go up essentially indefinitely.
not to be a smart a$$ but, as inflation goes up, then the stocks may go up as well, if nothing else just to keep even. But I think they will go up even further than rate of inflation (with occasional dips), if nothing else they will increase as population increases.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Economists have predicted 11 of the last 4 recessions.
how are my predictions so far?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I guess they're okay.Ag92NGranbury said:Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Economists have predicted 11 of the last 4 recessions.
how are my predictions so far?
See, I rotated out of Growth Tech stocks in June 2021 and into Value stocks. I haven't really felt economic pain, but I'm not an Economist either.
The recession will hit in the first half of 2023 and the Dow is headed lower:
CNBC CFO survey
PUBLISHED THU, JUN 9 20228:23 AM EDTUPDATED 59 MIN AGO
KEY POINTS
CNBC CFO survey
PUBLISHED THU, JUN 9 20228:23 AM EDTUPDATED 59 MIN AGO
KEY POINTS
- Amid high inflation that has become the No. 1 business risk, not a single chief financial officer surveyed by CNBC thinks a recession can be avoided.
- The macroeconomic view of CFOs informs a bearish stock market outlook, with most expecting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall to 30,000 before reaching a new high, which would represent a decline of 18% from its current level.
- The CNBC CFO Council Survey is a sample of views from the C-suite at top corporations and organizations, with this quarter's survey including responses from 22 CFOs.
Well Q1 was negative growth and the definition of recession is two consecutive negative quarters so it appears we're on recession watch now.
Someone brought up the destruction of the US Dollar and the prospects for it going away as the global reserve which isn't practical without significantly more disruption to the global system. The world exists to feed the US economy and as long as thats the case business will be conducted in dollars.
So when does that world cease to exist? When we recall the US Navy because without that global trade ends immediately. Nobody can protect their own trade vessels on the open seas never mind everyone's. That was the deal we made with the world in the wake of WWII and we've made the world richer than its ever been but it's coming to an end mainly because we don't need it anymore and it was always a bad deal for us economically. Despite our poor leadership over most of the past 50 years we have most everything we need to thrive in isolation and for better or worse we're moving back in that direction. When I say "we" and "in isolation" I really mean North America because whether they like it or not Mexico is coming with us.
20 years from now there may not be a global reserve currency that actually matters since there most likely won't be a singular nation running the world to their own benefit. Nobody else is capable of doing this. It's going to be amusing to watch the "hate the US" crowd get what's it's always longed for. A world without the US in the middle.
Someone brought up the destruction of the US Dollar and the prospects for it going away as the global reserve which isn't practical without significantly more disruption to the global system. The world exists to feed the US economy and as long as thats the case business will be conducted in dollars.
So when does that world cease to exist? When we recall the US Navy because without that global trade ends immediately. Nobody can protect their own trade vessels on the open seas never mind everyone's. That was the deal we made with the world in the wake of WWII and we've made the world richer than its ever been but it's coming to an end mainly because we don't need it anymore and it was always a bad deal for us economically. Despite our poor leadership over most of the past 50 years we have most everything we need to thrive in isolation and for better or worse we're moving back in that direction. When I say "we" and "in isolation" I really mean North America because whether they like it or not Mexico is coming with us.
20 years from now there may not be a global reserve currency that actually matters since there most likely won't be a singular nation running the world to their own benefit. Nobody else is capable of doing this. It's going to be amusing to watch the "hate the US" crowd get what's it's always longed for. A world without the US in the middle.
The federal government was never meant to be this powerful.
Quote:
When I say "we" and "in isolation" I really mean North America because whether they like it or not Mexico is coming with us.
Hell yes. Mexico is and can continue to be a manufacturing powerhouse to our south, while we focus on technology development and a refocused military aligned with our core (shared) North American interests. Canada can come too I guess...
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