Educate me on bitcoins fall

20,773 Views | 177 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by MRB10
JDCAG (NOT Colin)
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LMCane said:

Cyp0111 said:

I'm not a beginner in investing etc. I've just yet to hear a clear fundamental case for Crypto from anyone. The tangent always goes off topic to justify the value.

Crypto and NFTs in my opinion were the first and most tangible sign that the economy at the time had significant excess liquidity.
you haven't heard of the Blockchain?!
the metaverse?


I think one can see immense value in blockchain and related technologies without necessarily seeing a ton of value in specific coins.
Double Oaked
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But that only works if every bank uses the same blockchain. And they would need to develop it and maintain it. And if it's not open for everyone to view and validate, then it doesn't solve any problem.

The whole point of Bitcoin's blockchain is that it's a trustless public record of exchange. You don't have to know who the public key belongs to, but you can validate that every transaction in it's history took place. There are no secrets or questions when it comes to where each Bitcoin sits within the network, from the time first block was mined, to now.
JDCAG (NOT Colin)
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TxAG#2011 said:

bmks270 said:

ac04 said:

Cyp0111 said:

I'm still curious what the true value is. i know it has a relative opex to produce but outside of that. It seems like a rather speculative play which would explain all the pumpers adn excess surrounding it.
what is the true value of being able to monetize wasted energy? or of being able to teleport billions of dollars in value anywhere on earth for less than $1 without permission or involvement from any third party? or of a pre-defined and unalterable monetary policy protected by the most secure network that has ever existed?

efficient market theory would posit that a global TAM and 24/7 liquidity means the true value is updated every minute of every day. although i think you could definitely argue that most people do not have all the information about what bitcoin is or why its important.


We may eventually learn that the value of those things is only $10 per Bitcoin. Nobody really knows, it's just a bunch of speculation. Big banks can also implement their own blockchains for transferring funds, they don't absolutely need Bitcoin for anything, banks can exist without Bitcoin. And so is it's volatile pricing. Bitcoins primary use case today is simply to be traded as a currency with other currencies just because.
I don't think anyone at this point really cares what banks need, don't need, or can implement themselves.

It's completely irrelevant to Bitcoin.


Honestly asking, because I honestly don't know - but is there any way at the moment to buy bitcoin without having a physical bank account (assuming you have no other entry point to start with)?

Until/unless things progress to the point where you can enter the BTC market without having to go from USD (or some other government backed currency), then there is always going to be some limit to the promise of "no government oversight". People can argue about whether or not something is the fault of crypto, or simply a fault of the surface area it has with traditional accounts, but at the end of the day for most people and for most practical purposes, I would think governments and banks can still exercise an immense amount of control over people.
JDCAG (NOT Colin)
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I should be studying 11 said:

But that only works if every bank uses the same blockchain. And they would need to develop it and maintain it. And if it's not open for everyone to view and validate, then it doesn't solve any problem.

The whole point of Bitcoin's blockchain is that it's a trustless public record of exchange. You don't have to know who the public key belongs to, but you can validate that every transaction in it's history took place. There are no secrets or questions when it comes to where each Bitcoin sits within the network, from the time first block was mined, to now.


Again, let me caveat this by saying that I really want to learn more about this stuff, so I'm happy to admit my navete and learn from it. I have no real dog in this fight, having played some with BTC, but not being firmly pro or against. It is still fascinating to discuss.

I definitely think there is a ton of value in the underlying technology here (blockchain, open ledger, etc.), but I guess my long term concern is that nothing in that statement specifically indicates BTC as the vehicle, right? If an alternative was developed and had the backing of banks (and their underlying products like credit cards, traditional accounts, loan products, etc.), you will have a definite segment of the population that refuses to buy in - probably a large majority of the current folks who champion BTC....but you would have a HUGE amount of the population that happily jumped on board....and if something like that were to happen, and the commercial sector followed the same big banks they're used to dealing with, would that hurt the ability of BTC itself to grow beyond some theoretical value store?

I guess what I'm saying is how do folks that are hopping on different coins know which ones are VHS and which ones are BetaMax....and if you're in a situation where the government has a vested interest in promoting their horse in the race, does that change your calculus at all?
bmks270
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Maybe I am in a minority in my beliefs regarding Bitcoin adoption, but I think the average human is too irresponsible and simply, too dumb, to understand the blockchain and to maintain their own wallets and keys. People aren't going to like not being able to reset their password. So because of that, Bitcoin will never see full adoption, and will always only ever be a tool for humans that are more responsible than average. There may be enough of them to support a vibrant Bitcoin economy, but I just don't see Bitcoin ever becoming adopted across all levels of society.
QBCade
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AggieBaseball06 said:

TxAG#2011 said:

Cyp0111 said:

I'm still curious what the true value is. i know it has a relative opex to produce but outside of that. It seems like a rather speculative play which would explain all the pumpers adn excess surrounding it.
Scarcity, utility, and decentralization. These things have value to some people, an no value to others.

Bitcoin cannot be seized by a government or regulatory entity. What is the value of that? Nothing to some and a lot to others.

Also provides me the opportunity to buy cheap and sell high


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/04/irs-has-seized-1point2-billion-worth-of-cryptocurrency-this-year-.html

Quote:

The IRS has seized $1.2 billion worth of cryptocurrency this fiscal year here's what happens to it


I'm admittedly a novice to all of this. Your statement and that headline seem to clash. Could you please explain what I'm missing?



Yeah, seems like the Feds have figured out that they can do a really good job of seizing BTC and crypto. It's all public ledger transactions and they've figured out how to trace. So, security of assets is pretty close to ZERO now.
Deluxe
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bmks270 said:

Maybe I am in a minority in my beliefs regarding Bitcoin adoption, but I think the average human is too irresponsible and simply, too dumb, to understand the blockchain and to maintain their own wallets and keys. People aren't going to like not being able to reset their password. So because of that, Bitcoin will never see full adoption, and will always only ever be a tool for humans that are more responsible than average. There may be enough of them to support a vibrant Bitcoin economy, but I just don't see Bitcoin ever becoming adopted across all levels of society.
I agree that owning a piece of the Bitcoin base layer probably isn't for everyone. Perhaps similar to how owning a bar of gold or a barrel of oil isn't for everyone. Each comes with a set of logistical hassles and consequences for not handling the responsibility with attention and care.

Common folks will interface with Bitcoin via layer 3-4 applications. The winning applications will be the ones that offer the best, most user-friendly experience for merchants and consumers.

The fact that final transaction settlement of layer 3-4 payments will occur on Bitcoin's base layer will be irrelevant to most users, just like all the hoops that Chase/Visa jump through to settle electronic transactions today is irrelevant to most people.

For the foreseeable future, the Bitcoin network will be effectively processing payments in USD/other fiat currencies. A full-on Bitcoin standard/revolution is not required to leverage the power of the Bitcoin network. Might there come a day when people decided to cut out the middleman (ie fiat currencies) and just remit BTC itself for payment of goods/services? Maybe. I don't know when though and honestly it's not really that important right now.
Double Oaked
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JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

I should be studying 11 said:

But that only works if every bank uses the same blockchain. And they would need to develop it and maintain it. And if it's not open for everyone to view and validate, then it doesn't solve any problem.

The whole point of Bitcoin's blockchain is that it's a trustless public record of exchange. You don't have to know who the public key belongs to, but you can validate that every transaction in it's history took place. There are no secrets or questions when it comes to where each Bitcoin sits within the network, from the time first block was mined, to now.


Again, let me caveat this by saying that I really want to learn more about this stuff, so I'm happy to admit my navete and learn from it. I have no real dog in this fight, having played some with BTC, but not being firmly pro or against. It is still fascinating to discuss.

I definitely think there is a ton of value in the underlying technology here (blockchain, open ledger, etc.), but I guess my long term concern is that nothing in that statement specifically indicates BTC as the vehicle, right? If an alternative was developed and had the backing of banks (and their underlying products like credit cards, traditional accounts, loan products, etc.), you will have a definite segment of the population that refuses to buy in - probably a large majority of the current folks who champion BTC....but you would have a HUGE amount of the population that happily jumped on board....and if something like that were to happen, and the commercial sector followed the same big banks they're used to dealing with, would that hurt the ability of BTC itself to grow beyond some theoretical value store?

I guess what I'm saying is how do folks that are hopping on different coins know which ones are VHS and which ones are BetaMax....and if you're in a situation where the government has a vested interest in promoting their horse in the race, does that change your calculus at all?
You are 100% right that there "could" be something else that comes along and offers the same base functionality of Bitcoin but goes by another name. There are other projects now that have a different layer 1 blockchain and completely separate ecosystem in place (Ethereum being the 2nd largest).

We are still extremely early in the use-case department when it comes to cryptocurrency and their practical application. Bitcoin by itself doesn't do too much right now other than exist as a means of payment and money transfer. It's the best at what it does and is the most secure for a number of reasons; mostly being that there is no centralization at all. It was created and the code distributed and people have joined organically by mining and running nodes since inception. There is no company, group, or board that controls Bitcoin. All development is done by volunteers who propose changes and network participants running validator nodes get to vote on any changes. Since Bitcoin is Proof of Work, meaning it requires real money in the form of ASICs and power to mine new Bitcoin, it is theoretically impossible for any one person, country, or group to ever take control of the network. If you try to get 51% of the hash power of the network (meaning you control it) you would be constantly chasing a moving target since the network responds to the increased hash rate with increased difficulty in solving the next block.

Others are moving to, or already have, a Proof of Stake validation methodology. This means that in order to run your own validator node, or participate in the network, you have to "stake" your own coin, sort of like collateral. The thesis is that since you have to put your own money into the network to harden the network, a 51% attack is extremely unlikely because you would be throwing your own money away. Both methods have their pros and cons, but I tend to align more with Proof of Work as more secure.

The future use cases for Bitcoin, or any crypto, will rely on layer 2/3/4 technologies that operate on top of it. That's where things like Smart Contracts, NFTs, dApps come into play and have real-world utility. All of those utilities built on top of Bitcoin will eventually require the use of Bitcoins (really Satoshis, or Sats, which are the smaller pieces of a Bitcoin. Kind of like cents to the dollar) to operate.

There are so many things that will be built on top of the blockchain over the next 5 to 10 years but because of the different layer 2/3/4 protocols, you'll never really need to know how they work. They'll just work and be more secure because of the underlying technology. I think that underlying technology will end up being Bitcoin, but, it could be something else. Time will tell.
JDCAG (NOT Colin)
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Appreciate the response!
Deluxe
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I attest to most of the above post. At this stage of the game, it's almost impossible to imagine that macro/internet payment processing infrastructure won't be built on top of Bitcoin's base layer.

This is a really good piece about the trade-offs between proof of work and proof of stake... and why proof of stake will inevitably trend toward a centralized protocol.
Definitely Not A Cop
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bmks270 said:

Maybe I am in a minority in my beliefs regarding Bitcoin adoption, but I think the average human is too irresponsible and simply, too dumb, to understand the blockchain and to maintain their own wallets and keys. People aren't going to like not being able to reset their password. So because of that, Bitcoin will never see full adoption, and will always only ever be a tool for humans that are more responsible than average. There may be enough of them to support a vibrant Bitcoin economy, but I just don't see Bitcoin ever becoming adopted across all levels of society.


You are correct that right now it is too complicated. But so we're computers 30 years ago, or any basic technology. Hell, look at how much Facebook has changed to make even the most Luddite of people have their own personal web page and upload photos and videos. I believe as it becomes more and more mainstream, people will come up with ways to make it more accessible and functional for the average person.
barnag
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Definitely Not A Cop said:

bmks270 said:

Maybe I am in a minority in my beliefs regarding Bitcoin adoption, but I think the average human is too irresponsible and simply, too dumb, to understand the blockchain and to maintain their own wallets and keys. People aren't going to like not being able to reset their password. So because of that, Bitcoin will never see full adoption, and will always only ever be a tool for humans that are more responsible than average. There may be enough of them to support a vibrant Bitcoin economy, but I just don't see Bitcoin ever becoming adopted across all levels of society.


You are correct that right now it is too complicated. But so we're computers 30 years ago, or any basic technology. Hell, look at how much Facebook has changed to make even the most Luddite of people have their own personal web page and upload photos and videos. I believe as it becomes more and more mainstream, people will come up with ways to make it more accessible and functional for the average person.


This. I remember hearing about btc many years ago but it seemed so complicated. Mining? What is that? And then all of these exchanges came about where you can easily buy it. I'm sure it will continue to get easier and thus more adopted and used.
AggieAL1
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Quote:

The future use cases for Bitcoin, or any crypto, will rely on layer 2/3/4 technologies that operate on top of it. That's where things like Smart Contracts, NFTs, dApps come into play and have real-world utility. All of those utilities built on top of Bitcoin will eventually require the use of Bitcoins (really Satoshis, or Sats, which are the smaller pieces of a Bitcoin. Kind of like cents to the dollar) to operate.

There are so many things that will be built on top of the blockchain over the next 5 to 10 years but because of the different layer 2/3/4 protocols, you'll never really need to know how they work. They'll just work and be more secure because of the underlying technology. I think that underlying technology will end up being Bitcoin, but, it could be something else. Time will tell.

The problem with relying on level 2/3/4 bitcoin technologies, is that no bitcoin, not even a single satoshi, can be securely re-spent until it clears original verification requirements. So people may devise more systems like Lightning but they face severe limitations under such tunnel and clearance setups.

And with Bitcoin's prime network unable to process more than a handful of transactions per second, widespread use would leave a lot of sweating people wondering whether the check really is in the mail.
@NFLPlayerProps
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Cyp0111 said:

Has anyone had anyone explain a crypto currency to them in less than 2 sentences ?
Can you explain how USD works in less than 2 sentences?
Double Oaked
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AggieAL1 said:

Quote:

The future use cases for Bitcoin, or any crypto, will rely on layer 2/3/4 technologies that operate on top of it. That's where things like Smart Contracts, NFTs, dApps come into play and have real-world utility. All of those utilities built on top of Bitcoin will eventually require the use of Bitcoins (really Satoshis, or Sats, which are the smaller pieces of a Bitcoin. Kind of like cents to the dollar) to operate.

There are so many things that will be built on top of the blockchain over the next 5 to 10 years but because of the different layer 2/3/4 protocols, you'll never really need to know how they work. They'll just work and be more secure because of the underlying technology. I think that underlying technology will end up being Bitcoin, but, it could be something else. Time will tell.

The problem with relying on level 2/3/4 bitcoin technologies, is that no bitcoin, not even a single satoshi, can be securely re-spent until it clears original verification requirements. So people may devise more systems like Lightning but they face severe limitations under such tunnel and clearance setups.

And with Bitcoin's prime network unable to process more than a handful of transactions per second, widespread use would leave a lot of sweating people wondering whether the check really is in the mail.


The whole point of Lightening is to have an off-chain ledger for small transactions which are then bundled up and recorded on the blockchain for final settlement in large batches, resulting in fewer overall TPS. You don't have to worry about re-spending while it's in a lightening channel. I use my debit card to make purchases daily rather than wire money any time I want to buy something. Similar idea - there will be companies using lightening (layer 2) who manage those channels and smart contracts and then settle on the blockchain. Strike is sort of there now, but I believe it will happen at scale with more projects offering even better solutions in the years to come.
LMCane
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Cyp0111 said:

Again, it's intrinsic (which is fine) but the value seems to be rather discretionary to the one holding. It's a pump game imo. It doesnt produce any tangible value outside of the above mentioned items.

what value comes from a piece of paper with green paint on it and the picture of a dead president? it's not backed up by the gold standard or gold reserves for the last 5 decades.
Deluxe
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I think the one of the big value drivers that Musk is after in Twitter is development of a creator economy for journalists, artists, and other content producers. Lightning network is already integrated into Twitter and will facilitate the micropayments that go directly from content consumers to content producers.

Per Mallers, this will be applied in the real world too. The Twitter app will double as a payment app via lighting (ie pay for a cup of coffee with Twitter as your method of payment).
birdman
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@NFLPlayerProps said:

Cyp0111 said:

Has anyone had anyone explain a crypto currency to them in less than 2 sentences ?
Can you explain how USD works in less than 2 sentences?
It's a piece of paper that I can use to buy nearly anything I want from nearly any place in the world.
Cyp0111
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and is the reserve currency for the world.

Again, i'm not dogging on crypto. I just haven't seen a simple explanation for the value (at current levels) in a concise manner.

I get the appeal of non fiat currency transactions, however, at what cost does that lose it's value.

More importantly, what is the value proposition of bitcoin at $29K. When is it a good buy ?
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Cyp0111
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I guess the market is saying less adoption since it's value has been cut in half. It's a highly speculative play which is fine. I've the investment thesis is adoption driving value, no one knows .
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bmks270
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@NFLPlayerProps said:

Cyp0111 said:

Has anyone had anyone explain a crypto currency to them in less than 2 sentences ?
Can you explain how USD works in less than 2 sentences?


If you can't provide USD to the United States federal government to pay taxes, you go to jail.
ballchain
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AggieAL1
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I should be studying 11 said:

AggieAL1 said:

Quote:

The future use cases for Bitcoin, or any crypto, will rely on layer 2/3/4 technologies that operate on top of it. That's where things like Smart Contracts, NFTs, dApps come into play and have real-world utility. All of those utilities built on top of Bitcoin will eventually require the use of Bitcoins (really Satoshis, or Sats, which are the smaller pieces of a Bitcoin. Kind of like cents to the dollar) to operate.

There are so many things that will be built on top of the blockchain over the next 5 to 10 years but because of the different layer 2/3/4 protocols, you'll never really need to know how they work. They'll just work and be more secure because of the underlying technology. I think that underlying technology will end up being Bitcoin, but, it could be something else. Time will tell.

The problem with relying on level 2/3/4 bitcoin technologies, is that no bitcoin, not even a single satoshi, can be securely re-spent until it clears original verification requirements. So people may devise more systems like Lightning but they face severe limitations under such tunnel and clearance setups.

And with Bitcoin's prime network unable to process more than a handful of transactions per second, widespread use would leave a lot of sweating people wondering whether the check really is in the mail.


The whole point of Lightening is to have an off-chain ledger for small transactions which are then bundled up and recorded on the blockchain for final settlement in large batches, resulting in fewer overall TPS. You don't have to worry about re-spending while it's in a lightening channel. I use my debit card to make purchases daily rather than wire money any time I want to buy something. Similar idea - there will be companies using lightening (layer 2) who manage those channels and smart contracts and then settle on the blockchain. Strike is sort of there now, but I believe it will happen at scale with more projects offering even better solutions in the years to come.
I'm afraid it's not quite the same. Your use of a debit card authorizes your bank to make an immediate transfer of dollars from your account to the seller's. He can (usually) spend it the next day (or perhaps sooner).

However a Lightning Network bitcoin purchase only provides a claim against a dedicated store of bitcoin. An IOU so to speak. And it applies only to predesignated pairings. Neither party in such transactions can expend the bitcoin until both agree to settle the account and record the balance on the bitcoin chain.

For it to be otherwise would defeat speed and fee-savings features of the Lightning network.


Ulrich
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I have not made a focused, extended effort to understand bitcoin/blockchain. I have probably spent a few hours over the years trying to understand. Most discussions devolve into some wannabe tech bro flaming everyone who doesn't already understand.

As far as the underlying tech goes, I have a basic understanding. Personally I am VERY interested in seeing alternate currencies pop up as valid competitors to state currencies, so any resistance I have is not because I just want to use the dollar forever.

This is the detailed explanation for why I don't own any:
Right now it really only looks like a speculative play to own the currency. It doesn't seem very useful when it comes to buying and selling goods. That being the case, it's not useful as a store of value because you're frequently going to have to swap it into a government-backed currency. I don't really trust the wallets. And finally, I have concerns about the underlying design of the technology and the possibility that it will eventually become unusable due to some blend of transaction volumes, computing requirements, and the underlying architecture. I freely admit that I can't explain either of the last two points very well.

The short version is that I understand the dollar in my guts, but in spite of some intellectual knowledge I don't understand bitcoin in my guts.
Ulrich
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If I had thrown a hundred bucks at it when I found out about it, I would have retired a couple years ago. No denying that.
MavsAg
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@NFLPlayerProps said:

Cyp0111 said:

Has anyone had anyone explain a crypto currency to them in less than 2 sentences ?
Can you explain how USD works in less than 2 sentences?
Printer go brrr. Bitcoin fixes this.

Anymore brain busters?
FrioAg 00
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Long term, hopefully.

However the last 18 months the printers have cranked harder than at any time in history - yet each dollar can buy LESS Bitcoin than it could

That instability is setting back the public confidence by quite a bit (which is still key to BTC success)
Adverse Event
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Ulrich said:

I have not made a focused, extended effort to understand bitcoin/blockchain. I have probably spent a few hours over the years trying to understand. Most discussions devolve into some wannabe tech bro flaming everyone who doesn't already understand.

As far as the underlying tech goes, I have a basic understanding. Personally I am VERY interested in seeing alternate currencies pop up as valid competitors to state currencies, so any resistance I have is not because I just want to use the dollar forever.

This is the detailed explanation for why I don't own any:
Right now it really only looks like a speculative play to own the currency. It doesn't seem very useful when it comes to buying and selling goods. That being the case, it's not useful as a store of value because you're frequently going to have to swap it into a government-backed currency. I don't really trust the wallets. And finally, I have concerns about the underlying design of the technology and the possibility that it will eventually become unusable due to some blend of transaction volumes, computing requirements, and the underlying architecture. I freely admit that I can't explain either of the last two points very well.

The short version is that I understand the dollar in my guts, but in spite of some intellectual knowledge I don't understand bitcoin in my guts.


If you understand the dollar "in your guts" you don't get it, you're just so used to using it, it's become 2nd nature not to concern yourself with the mechanisms.

It's almost painful to dive deep into the mechanisms, because so much trust is incorporated into your belief of your guts.

Speaking generally, not to you specifically.

CC09LawAg
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If this board has taught me anything, I learned my lesson in this regard. The next thing I see mentioned here that I think is stupid or unrealistic will at least get a few minutes of my time rather than an eye roll….
TriAg2010
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AG
Alright, if this is true, I've seen enough about crypto. Stick a fork in it.

Gordo14
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Blockchain is over a decade old at this point and we're still "early". Maybe this is just what blockchain is - excessively ineffecient databases.
Ulrich
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Apologies if the thread moved on, I started writing this post several hours ago and got distracted before finishing.

My largest sources of income (salary and dividends) are denominated in dollars. My largest expenditures (taxes, mortgage) are denominated in dollars. Even if I could find a way to do everything else in Bitcoin, it doesn't seem worth it to go to the extra effort to have two currencies in my life, especially since the second one is less convenient and more risky. The USD is off ~15% in the last year. BTC is worth 25% fewer of those less valuable dollars than it was last year.

If I could buy a barrel of supplies for $100 a year ago, I would have to pay $115 today. Last year 1 BTC would buy 40,000 dollars. This year 1 BTC will only buy $30,000 dollars. A bitcoin buys fewer dollars, and those dollars are worth less. You get hit coming and going.

Last year my barrel cost 0.0025 BYC; this year it takes 0.0038, a 53% increase.

If the barrel is actually denominated in Satoshis then who knows how it changed, but since it's unlikely that a whole supply chain exists in BTC this effect likely occurred to some extent no matter how enlightened the barrel maker is.

That alludes to the basic question I have: do currencies need to be the base of a vertically-integrated economy to function as anything other than an appendage to another currency?
 
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