Educate me on bitcoins fall

20,779 Views | 177 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by MRB10
Ulrich
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This post is a great example of why bitcoin evangelists are often so ineffective. You're calling people ignorant lemmings, which is hardly a good opening move.

As far as understanding the dollar… I work in finance and have a pretty solid grounding in economics and psychology. Currency in general is a complex social technology, and by living with it and the mechanisms that make it work personally and professionally for 30 years I've developed an understanding that, if not perfect, is pretty good. And in a thread about the USD I would be (and often have) criticized government's stewardship of its currency.

You're trying to bootstrap an unfamiliar idea over an entrenched incumbent. People mostly learn, or at least get comfortable as you allude to, by participating. Chicken or egg problem here, but I'm not sure there an educational solution good enough to allow bitcoin to overcome established currencies in a big way.

The solution is probably to get people to participate for free somehow and then expand that economy from the grassroots. There are many technical hurdles yet to be solved; the tech is still in its infancy, but the problem seems basically the same as getting a social network off the ground. I still wonder if bitcoin is MySpace.
Adverse Event
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Quote:

I have not made a focused, extended effort to understand bitcoin

Could be stated no differently:
Quote:

I remain ignorant on bitcoin as I have made no efforts to understanding it


Why do people get hung up on recognizing their ignorance, or is it that a random stranger recognizes and properly labels ignorance as ignorance?

I'm truly confused why your statement of ignorance on the topic inflames you when it's pointed out.

What Der problem here?



Secondly, if you've specialized in finance, meaning that you've become so encapsulated in the jargon, education, business of finance and someone comes up and says "hey, I know you learned all this stuff, but with this new thing you're gonna have to unlearn and relearn some of the basics again. Also some of those theories that are taken at face value nl longer apply. This means all of our current assumptions are bunk. Time to begin again."

I think most people would wait until they cannot perform their day-to-day without this change in reality, similar to business adoption of internet/etc.
Deluxe
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AG
Yesterday said:

I figured with inflation and the end of the world upon us that bitcoin would be doing well. Why is it sucking so bad right now and is it worth buying?
Off the top, as it relates to Bitcoin, I'd encourage you and just about anyone to focus more on learning about the Bitcoin network, how it functions and what it's forward use cases are than watching to see whether price goes up or down.

Whether price go up or down is easily the least interesting aspect of Bitcoin. If you're investing with a long term horizon, the "price" will take care of itself so long as layer 2-4 use cases of the network are properly executed. It's fascinating to watch play out in real time right now.

But if I were to offer my two cents on price, Bitcoin the asset is subject to the same market forces as just about any other asset that trades in a sophisticated marketplace. It doesn't exist in a vacuum and doesn't offer a perfect negative correlation against inflation (not in the short term anyway). Bitcoiners who suggest otherwise are wrong.

I wrote this recently on another thread, but there's three main components of supply/price:

1) Long term holders - About 65% of supply hasn't moved in a year. The raw number of long term holders is growing and supply available for them to purchase is will continue to decline with halving cycles. But this is the illiquid supply that only effects price in long term/macro ways. Shorter term price moves are driven by the liquid supply...

2) Macro tech investors - Those who see Bitcoin as an extension of NASDAQ/FAANG etc. These investors are risk-off right now and likely will be for a while. Alot of capital is sitting on the sidelines waiting until the market de-risks before putting it back at work. And...

3) Traders - Those who trade on charts/quant analysis. Currently that analysis is pretty bearish (not just for Bitcoin but for the market as a whole). They're going to use leverage to drive the price down to certain resistance levels and then wait and see what the updated chart/quant analysis tells them. They aid the acceleration down in bear markets but aid acceleration up in bull markets.

Making shorter term (<1-2 year) price predictions on Bitcoin is generally fruitless, but if forced to have an opinion, I think the price of Bitcoin will go down quite a bit more in the short term. Assuming interest rates continue to rise, there's alot more leverage to shake out and more liquidations will inevitably occur to drive supply that will have to be gobbled up by the market (which is already gobbling up 900 new Bitcoin everyday).

Over the long term, the macro tech investors/traders will ebb and flow with general market forces. Sometimes they'll work for you and sometimes they'll work against you. Pay them no mind. Understand the network, how it functions and how it will be used. Understand the problems it solves that the current global financial transaction/digital money system cannot solve. I did my thousand hours of research and think Bitcoin as digital property/energy is the best way to store value over the 10+ year long term. With that time horizon, I sleep great (and will continue to sleep great even if it drops another 50% in the next year).
Definitely Not A Cop
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AG
Second this advice. I also recommend to people to stop thinking about BTC as a way to make bank in a year. It's a true 5 year investment with the way halving cycles are set up to take place every four years. If you are unsure and have never owned it, I encourage you to buy a small amount you are comfortable with losing. Then hold on to it for 5 years and see how much it appreciated.

I did this back in 2017 when everyone was telling me I was too late, I had missed out, and was an idiot for buying it. It had tripled in value by 2021, and even with the recent crash I'm up 3 times what it was back then.

Take a look at the all time chart. It's about as regular as it gets. Every 4 years, the halving cycle starts and you see the price increase with its own scarcity.
Deluxe
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AG
Even though it appears we are mostly in alignment, I'd offer one caveat.

I'm not a huge fan of using the halving cycle as a stand-alone reason why price will go up. That has been true historically but isn't guaranteed to be true in the future. The demand component still needs to exist as a compliment.

Lots of alts have supply issuance reduction mechanisms and most of those are ultimately going to zero. Also, more of the market will be aware of and anticipate each subsequent halving, thereby absorbing some of its effect on price.

The demand component is still very important will be driven by use cases built on top of the base layer and how many people adopt the POV that Bitcoin is the best way to store digital energy for the long term. That number has grown steadily over the years (on a raw basis) and I think we're still in the early stages of S shaped growth, but we'll see.

I still think the most important thing anyone can do is understand the network, how it works, its layer 2-4 uses cases, and how the network can resolve issues that the current global monetary transaction system cannot.
Definitely Not A Cop
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AG
Fair enough, all excellent points.
cjsag94
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AG
TxAG#2011 said:

Fall? I believe it's the best performing major asset over the past two years


Your statement is very relative... Maybe it's fine for those who owned it 2 years ago... But this isn't an investment, it is nothing more than a bet on something you believe will happen in the future. But even that is irrelevant... The volatility is completely indicative of nothing but a high speed speculative trade.

And I'm no economist, but I can't imagine a world where the governments of the world cede control of their economies to a digital whimsical market.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/05/09/40percent-of-bitcoin-investors-underwater-glassnode-data.html
XpressAg09
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AG
Cyp0111 said:

I'm still curious what the true value is. i know it has a relative opex to produce but outside of that. It seems like a rather speculative play which would explain all the pumpers adn excess surrounding it.
When Justin Trudeau froze bank accounts of private citizens participating in the Ottawa traffic jam, the protestors organized and passed out Bitcoin on private ledgers (think a removable hard drive). Justin Trudeau couldn't stop the truckers from then transacting for goods and services using bitcoin.

That's just one use case, but some folks like the private aspect of it, some folks see it as becoming as easy to transact as credit cards are now, and some folks don't trust governments to not send $40B of money they don't have to Ukraine.

It's a very different investment/currency/bubble/mindset/insert-noun-here and should not necessarily be viewed through the same lens as a ETF, stock, or bond.

It's best to think of it as a foreign government currency, just not tied to a government and all the transactions are available for anyone to view but not tamper with. (this is a 30,000 foot view definition and someone will poke holes, but I'm optimistic about the long-term potential for bitcoin)
XpressAg09
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AG
AggieBaseball06 said:

TxAG#2011 said:

Cyp0111 said:

I'm still curious what the true value is. i know it has a relative opex to produce but outside of that. It seems like a rather speculative play which would explain all the pumpers adn excess surrounding it.
Bitcoin cannot be seized by a government or regulatory entity. What is the value of that? Nothing to some and a lot to others.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/04/irs-has-seized-1point2-billion-worth-of-cryptocurrency-this-year-.html

Quote:

The IRS has seized $1.2 billion worth of cryptocurrency this fiscal year here's what happens to it


I'm admittedly a novice to all of this. Your statement and that headline seem to clash. Could you please explain what I'm missing?


Quote:

"There was a wallet with approximately 30,000 bitcoin in it, which we were able to identify and seize. At the time, it was probably the largest bitcoin seizure ever, and it sold for around $19 million," said Levin.
and
Quote:

During the seizure itself, multiple agents are involved to ensure proper oversight. That includes managers who establish the necessary hardware wallets to secure the seized crypto. "We maintain private keys only in headquarters so that it can't be tampered with," Koopman said.
indicates to me that the wallets seized were online and are much less secure than the bolded 'hardware wallets.' The fact that the government uses hardware wallets to secure seized crypto shows the value of hardware wallets. "Not your keys, not your coins."
XpressAg09
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AG
birdman said:

@NFLPlayerProps said:

Cyp0111 said:

Has anyone had anyone explain a crypto currency to them in less than 2 sentences ?
Can you explain how USD works in less than 2 sentences?
It's a piece of paper that I can use to buy nearly anything I want from nearly any place in the world.
Except you probably use debit cards more often than cash. So your not transacting the paper. You're swiping a magnetic strip, which Chase Bank recognizes has a 16 digit account number associated with it. Chase Bank removes the amount of dollars assigned to your account, updates their bank ledger and assigns those dollars to someone else's account. Their bank recognizes it and updates their bank ledger.

Same thing with Crypto except the blockchain isn't run by a bank.
fightingfarmer09
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Kenneth_2003 said:

Cyp0111 said:

Has anyone had anyone explain a crypto currency to them in less than 2 sentences ?


Check Crypto Casey. She has a bunch of really good videos that do offer some concise info for beginners. She also seems to have a very good understand of markets and market drivers in general and it reflects in some of her longer videos.

You can find her content on YouTube, audio only on your podcast platform of choice, and I think a host of other socials.

https://youtube.com/c/CryptoCasey


So we are looking for a 2 sentence explanation. Maybe a <1 min video.

You recommend an entire YouTube channel and a couple podcasts. Many of those videos are >30 min.
AggiEE
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Berkeley Computer Science professor with a scathing assessment of Crypto

bmks270
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AG
I really liked crypto at first. As I had more time to give deeper thought to human psychology and the function of money crypto lost some of its appeal. Things like how crypto functions, and what underlies demand for currencies, assets, commodities, and collectibles.
2002reb
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AG
Bitcoin is not "crypto". Bitcoin is the best money ever invented. Avoid the rest.
Deluxe
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AG
Did you actually watch it or are you just posting it here because someone on Twitter said it was a "scathing takedown"?

I just skimmed through it myself. The irony is that I agree with alot of what he's saying. I can get into some specific rebuttals of things I don't agree with/think are misleading, but I'd like for you to demonstrate that you at least watched it before engaging in a discussion. Be specific and technical.
Deluxe
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AG
AggiEE said:

Crypto is highly speculative junk that's significantly fueled by stimmies and margin

Stimmies are now gone and margin is now expensive

To make matters worse, the margin calls are forcing liquidation of crypto further adding to the decline

There's only so many fools that Matt Damon can sell to before everyone rushes to get out first

As Warren Buffett eloquently put it, Crypto is rat poison and a lesson on the mass delusional greed of crowds
It's funny how much we agree on.

I definitely agree on the margin aspect. Debt was way too easy for too long in a macro sense. But perhaps more relevant is the ability to go 20x margin on unregulated exchanges. Agree that we will see continued liquidations. There's still quite a bit more room to the downside IMO.

Big traders take advantage of greedy high leveraged traders and take their coins. This happens in both directions, but the general trend for a while will be downward. That's fine with me. Like I said in my post above, those traders ebb and flow with the times and ultimately cancel out when viewed through longer time horizons.

Agree that the Matt Damon's of the world don't "help". They build up hype and lure in sheep for the wolves to slaughter. VCs turned "crypto" into a casino and muddied it up for the masses. It's a shame because it deflects attention from real innovation that is going on.
TxAG#2011
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It's funny watching the same people crawl out every time it crashes. And go completely silent when it inevitably heads back up
Deluxe
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AG
TxAG#2011 said:

It's funny watching the same people crawl out every time it crashes. And go completely silent when it inevitably heads back up
Obviously I have my reservations about certain aspects of "crypto" and think this current cycle probably still has room to the downside (as does the broader market), but I agree that the phenomenon you're referring to is pretty funny. It reminds me of this meme:
htxag09
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AG
What confuses me about Bitcoin is the currency part. I see it more as an investment, yes, investments can be traded. But the volatility of it makes it pretty irrelevant to me as an actual currency. If the goal is to be a secure and dominant currency, wouldn't the value need to be more stable?
@NFLPlayerProps
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fightingfarmer09 said:

Kenneth_2003 said:

Cyp0111 said:

Has anyone had anyone explain a crypto currency to them in less than 2 sentences ?


Check Crypto Casey. She has a bunch of really good videos that do offer some concise info for beginners. She also seems to have a very good understand of markets and market drivers in general and it reflects in some of her longer videos.

You can find her content on YouTube, audio only on your podcast platform of choice, and I think a host of other socials.

https://youtube.com/c/CryptoCasey


So we are looking for a 2 sentence explanation. Maybe a <1 min video.

You recommend an entire YouTube channel and a couple podcasts. Many of those videos are >30 min.
A 2 sentence explanation of bitcoin is not really possible, its too complex. You could try but it wouldn't sufficiently explain how it works. Just like a 2 sentence explanation of USD is not possible. Although I see a few tried and failed miserably. A full explanation would need to get into topics like the the Federal Reserve, T-bonds, T-notes, and T-bills, the fed funds rate, treasury repos, rehypothecation, money market funds, Eurodollars, Petrodollars, Modern Monetary Theory, inflation, etc. People assume they understand it and it just works, but in reality most people have no idea what is going on or why it actually doesn't work even though the proof is right in everyone's faces. But its the only thing most people have ever known, and they incorrectly assume that the status quo will just extended on into the future indefinitely despite millennia of evidence to the contrary.

If you are interested in how bitcoin works, there are so many great resources available. Read the whitepaper. Read Gradually, Then Suddenly by Parker Lewis. Read The Bitcoin Standard. Read The Bullish Case for Bitcoin by Vijay Boyapati. All of these are available for free online. Close texags and invest a little time in educating yourself on why a completely new asset class has formed and gone from $0 to $600B in value in only 13 years.

If you aren't willing to invest the time to read anything, watch this 5 minute video:

There is no excuse for being ignorant on this topic anymore other than willfully ignoring the endless amount of information that is readily available to everyone. If you honestly want to understand what bitcoin is it is very easy to find that information. If you don't care and would prefer to just continue on utilizing your own pre-conceived notions and biases to inform you on the topic, that is fine as well. But acting like it is some impenetrable black box that nobody can understand is disingenuous. You just have to put in a little effort instead of expecting someone to spoon feed you.

On the other hand, I can explain how all other cryptos work in 2 sentences or less. They are all affinity scams preying on people who think they understand bitcoin but actually don't, and they will all eventually trend to $0 in value.
XpressAg09
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AG
htxag09 said:

If the goal is to be a secure and dominant currency, wouldn't the value need to be more stable?
It's my own personal opinion that until we get closer to no more new bitcoins getting created, thereby halting supply, we're still guestimating at what the value of one Bitcoin is. When COVID started, BTC was at $10k per coin. It's gone up, and so has the number of shiitcoins. Those shiitcoins' demises doesn't make crypto look good right now, but as many folks have pointed out, BTC is in a world of its own. Still though, in the minds of most, it's lumped into the same category as a LUNA or DOGE.

Should BTC be back at $69k? Is it going to get back down to $10k? Short-term, no one can say with 100% certainty, but to me, so long as the printers go brr, BTC isn't a bad 'investment.' Eventually, economics dictates that if there's demand and no supply, price goes up.

Deluxe
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AG
htxag09 said:

What confuses me about Bitcoin is the currency part. I see it more as an investment, yes, investments can be traded. But the volatility of it makes it pretty irrelevant to me as an actual currency. If the goal is to be a secure and dominant currency, wouldn't the value need to be more stable?
Here's one take on it by Parker Lewis:

https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/bitcoin-is-not-too-volatile/
JDCAG (NOT Colin)
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AG
Deluxe said:

htxag09 said:

What confuses me about Bitcoin is the currency part. I see it more as an investment, yes, investments can be traded. But the volatility of it makes it pretty irrelevant to me as an actual currency. If the goal is to be a secure and dominant currency, wouldn't the value need to be more stable?
Here's one take on it by Parker Lewis:

https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/bitcoin-is-not-too-volatile/


Interesting article, but even they seem to be pointing to a very long term future (which I agree with) vs being a type of currency in the near future.

Quote:

While central bankers all over the world point to bitcoin as a poor store of value and not functional as a currency because of volatility, they think in days, weeks, months and quarters while the rest of us plan for the long-term: years, decades and generations.


I definitely understand their perspective, but I think most people that say "it's too volatile" are talking about present day...it seems the article mostly says "it won't be in the future", but I wonder if that will slow some of their predictions on growth and long term adoption. From a currency standpoint, I guess my question is - if they're claiming BTC will continue to reset at newer and newer highs as adaption increases, why would anyone spend BTC today? Doesn't that disincentivize using BTC as currency?

I've got it bookmarked, cause it seems like a good article (just skimmed it a minute ago), but it seems like it is more about "long term it is built to be stable" (which I agree), but I think people questioning are talking about buying things with BTC now....perhaps they addressed it and I missed it (will read again later though!)

Thanks for the link!
Deluxe
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AG
Appreciate you reading it with an open mind.

As the Bitcoin space evolves and I would say there's currently less emphasis on it being a stable currency in the near future than there was a few years ago. Adoption in that regard will happen in longer term cycles. That might slightly contradict what Parker said in that piece, but it was written 3 years ago.

In the meantime, USD will remain supreme as currency. USD isn't designed to be held. It's designed to be spent. What the USD system lacks is efficiency in transporting on a worldwide scale. There's alot of demand for dollars in the world, but not many good ways to transport. Western Union is slow and expensive. Merchants pay fees to access the Visa/Chase system. Lots of fixed costs, overhead, human labor, bricks and mortar, etc stand between the sender and the recipient. That's where Bitcoin/Lightning comes in. USD pegged stablecoins will travel on Bitcoin rails.

That's a big part of the reason why the main concern in the "crypto" space among regulators right now is stablecoin reserve requirements and whether they may have to charter like banks. That's when you might see JPM or Goldman step in with their own stablecoin, thus negating the need for Tether, Terra, etc.

Bitcoin the asset is more like digital property than digital currency right now, IMO. Like I said in my post above, it's not immune from market forces and will accelerate up in good times/down in bad times. Alot of that is due to high amounts of leverage available on exchanges (which I hope regulators reign in). I personally don't think there's a harder asset you can hold in the long term than a piece of Bitcoin's base layer. It's hard to get into all the reasons why I think that while keeping this post succinct.

In the meantime, if you liked that piece I posted about volatility, here's a link to all of Parker Lewis's "Gradually Then Suddenly" series:

https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/series/gradually-then-suddenly/
deadbq03
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AG
That's a good read and I tend to agree that the overall premises are plausible:

1) Volatility doesn't necessarily mean it's not a good long-term store of value.
2) Volatility will wane as BTC matures, and then it will become more of a currency.

But I'd argue that it can't truly become a currency until world population stabilizes too. If the amount of BTC stays the same - once mined - but population keeps growing as rapidly as it does now, then you have a currency that is always rapidly deflationary... and what the fiat-bashing inflation fearmongers fail to admit/realize is that rampant deflation would also be economically problematic.

Here's a couple of thoughts (and probably huge speculations on my part) about what might be happening to BTC recently:

1) No public trust (or perhaps misplaced public trust). A core principle of BTC is Public Trust, and like y'all have mentioned, BTC gets drug through the mud because of all the ****coin out there.

2) Greedy miners. The concept was that as BTC becomes harder to mine, BTC miners would be able to make money via transactions. This is speculative on my part, but I think most miners aren't that patient. They're mining to get rich quick... and I think that's why you see an explosion in ****coin as BTC has become harder to mine. These guys are jumping ship and looking for the next get-rich-quick option. I think there's also a whole cottage industry of crypto propaganda that's embedded in the mining industry to prop up their product, so as miners bail on BTC, they're going to stop pimping BTC and start pimping out other coins. (Which back to #1 leads to mistrust)

3) New BTC Futures ETFs. GBTC has been around forever as a trust that held BTC, but new ETFs for futures have been approved in the past year… and they're optionable. BITO, for example has at times in recent months been one of the most widely traded ETFs for options (like, just below SPY and QQQ)... think about how easy it would be for an algorithm to manipulate prices when you could trade BTC and BITO at the same time against each other. If folks wanna gamble and buy BITO calls, the algo is happy to sell those calls, and then sell some undervalued BTC at appropriate times to keep things neutral/down (but volatile).
Deluxe
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AG
Good post. Point #3 is something I think about too. I think paper markets can be too easily manipulated (just look at gold) and wish BITO had never been approved. Spot ETF or nothing.
LMCane
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Best way to deal in this space:

I have been on Coinbase but with their announcement that a bankruptcy leads to losing all your stored coins, that made me buy a Ledger Nano S

1) best site to purchase BTC? thoughts on FTX? coinbase is expensive and they jack up the sales price right before you buy

2) is it best practice to use an external hard wallet rather than keep your coins as part of a site?
currently own .47 BTC and 3.3 ETH
DTP02
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AG
Can you expand on the layer 2-4 BTC applications?

Because of its size (along with other problems, but size seems to be the biggest inherent issue) which is only increasing as I understand it, each BTC is ponderously inefficient to use for the purchase of goods and services.

So I'm making an inferential leap from the mentions of layer 2-4 uses, as well as just common sense, that those layers would be the mechanisms which we need to have for a more efficient way to transfer some measure of the store of BTC's current value to purchase goods and services. But how do you transfer a satoshi or a fraction of a BTC without referencing the entirety of the BTC, which is the crux of the inefficiency?

Are we counting on computer processing outpacing the increasing BTC size, is the theoretical answer that simple?
Definitely Not A Cop
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AG
DTP02 said:

Can you expand on the layer 2-4 BTC applications?

Because of its size (along with other problems, but size seems to be the biggest inherent issue) which is only increasing as I understand it, each BTC is ponderously inefficient to use for the purchase of goods and services.

So I'm making an inferential leap from the mentions of layer 2-4 uses, as well as just common sense, that those layers would be the mechanisms which we need to have for a more efficient way to transfer some measure of the store of BTC's current value to purchase goods and services. But how do you transfer a satoshi or a fraction of a BTC without referencing the entirety of the BTC, which is the crux of the inefficiency?

Are we counting on computer processing outpacing the increasing BTC size, is the theoretical answer that simple?


There are only so many transactions that can be reported in a certain time period with Most base layers of crypto. So one thing they do is create layers of micro transactions, and then roll them up into a larger lump sum for the base transaction. So a party sells 10 coins to 20 different people, but they only record the a single 10 coin transaction to the base layer.
AggieAL1
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Definitely Not A Cop said:

DTP02 said:

Can you expand on the layer 2-4 BTC applications?

Because of its size (along with other problems, but size seems to be the biggest inherent issue) which is only increasing as I understand it, each BTC is ponderously inefficient to use for the purchase of goods and services.

So I'm making an inferential leap from the mentions of layer 2-4 uses, as well as just common sense, that those layers would be the mechanisms which we need to have for a more efficient way to transfer some measure of the store of BTC's current value to purchase goods and services. But how do you transfer a satoshi or a fraction of a BTC without referencing the entirety of the BTC, which is the crux of the inefficiency?

Are we counting on computer processing outpacing the increasing BTC size, is the theoretical answer that simple?


There are only so many transactions that can be reported in a certain time period with Most base layers of crypto. So one thing they do is create layers of micro transactions, and then roll them up into a larger lump sum for the base transaction. So a party sells 10 coins to 20 different people, but they only record the a single 10 coin transaction to the base layer.
Really? Just how does that work? Say in bitcoin, where transactions must be verified and added to the blockchain to be final, what address is used to roll the coins up, and what address allows for a single blockchain entry to get those coins to 20 different people?

I fear the touted levels solutions are mere gossamer.
Deluxe
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AG
DTP02 said:

Can you expand on the layer 2-4 BTC applications?

Because of its size (along with other problems, but size seems to be the biggest inherent issue) which is only increasing as I understand it, each BTC is ponderously inefficient to use for the purchase of goods and services.

So I'm making an inferential leap from the mentions of layer 2-4 uses, as well as just common sense, that those layers would be the mechanisms which we need to have for a more efficient way to transfer some measure of the store of BTC's current value to purchase goods and services. But how do you transfer a satoshi or a fraction of a BTC without referencing the entirety of the BTC, which is the crux of the inefficiency?

Are we counting on computer processing outpacing the increasing BTC size, is the theoretical answer that simple?
I'm not sure if this is answering your question but I think it's metaphorically akin to going to a casino (which will be an ironic analogy for some of the "haters" on this thread haha).

Base layer - USD "system"
Layer 2 - the casino chips that represent USD but operate outside the base USD system
Layer 3 - the games that use casino chips

You make one conversion from USD to casino chips at the beginning of your session. Then you settle every blackjack hand in casino chips. Then you make one conversion back to USD at the end.

To access Lightning, you transfer Bitcoin from the base layer to the Lightning layer. Then you open an account with another person, vendor, company, etc. You make transactions with that counterparty via the Lightning layer. Then you make one settlement on the base layer at the end.
Definitely Not A Cop
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AG
AggieAL1 said:

Definitely Not A Cop said:

DTP02 said:

Can you expand on the layer 2-4 BTC applications?

Because of its size (along with other problems, but size seems to be the biggest inherent issue) which is only increasing as I understand it, each BTC is ponderously inefficient to use for the purchase of goods and services.

So I'm making an inferential leap from the mentions of layer 2-4 uses, as well as just common sense, that those layers would be the mechanisms which we need to have for a more efficient way to transfer some measure of the store of BTC's current value to purchase goods and services. But how do you transfer a satoshi or a fraction of a BTC without referencing the entirety of the BTC, which is the crux of the inefficiency?

Are we counting on computer processing outpacing the increasing BTC size, is the theoretical answer that simple?


There are only so many transactions that can be reported in a certain time period with Most base layers of crypto. So one thing they do is create layers of micro transactions, and then roll them up into a larger lump sum for the base transaction. So a party sells 10 coins to 20 different people, but they only record the a single 10 coin transaction to the base layer.
Really? Just how does that work? Say in bitcoin, where transactions must be verified and added to the blockchain to be final, what address is used to roll the coins up, and what address allows for a single blockchain entry to get those coins to 20 different people?

I fear the touted levels solutions are mere gossamer.


https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lightning-network.asp

Here's a good basic summary.



Quote:

Say Alice opens a channel with her favorite coffee shop and deposits $100 worth of bitcoin in it. Her transactions with the coffee shop are instant because she has a direct channel with it.

Bob, who has another channel open with the grocery store he visits most frequently, also buys coffee from Alice's shop. The connection between Alice, the coffee shop, and Bob ensures that Alice can use funds from her balance with the coffee shop to buy groceries from Bob's store. Similarly, Bob can use his grocery store balance to conduct transactions with businesses in Alice's network.

If Bob closes his channel with the grocery store (and there are no other customers in common between the coffee shop and grocery store), then Alice will have to open another channel with the grocery store to make purchases there. In this way, a web of transactions is created and routed between multiple lightning nodes in a decentralized fashion.

On a more technical level, the lightning network uses smart contracts and multi-signature scripts to implement its vision. An initial transaction, called the funding transaction, is created when one or both parties fund a channel. In a typical multi-signature environment, two master keys (one public and another private) are initially exchanged. The exchange facilitates access and spending of funds.

In the case of a lightning node, however, the signatures are not exchanged. This is done to prevent the funding transactions' spend from being recognized by the main blockchain. Instead, the two parties exchange a single key that is used to validate spending transactions (also called commitment transactions) between themselves.

The two parties can conduct endless commitment transactions between themselves and other nodes on a lightning network. They exchange their master keys only when the channel between them is closed.


AggieAL1
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Definitely Not A Cop said:

AggieAL1 said:

Definitely Not A Cop said:

DTP02 said:

Can you expand on the layer 2-4 BTC applications?

Because of its size (along with other problems, but size seems to be the biggest inherent issue) which is only increasing as I understand it, each BTC is ponderously inefficient to use for the purchase of goods and services.

So I'm making an inferential leap from the mentions of layer 2-4 uses, as well as just common sense, that those layers would be the mechanisms which we need to have for a more efficient way to transfer some measure of the store of BTC's current value to purchase goods and services. But how do you transfer a satoshi or a fraction of a BTC without referencing the entirety of the BTC, which is the crux of the inefficiency?

Are we counting on computer processing outpacing the increasing BTC size, is the theoretical answer that simple?


There are only so many transactions that can be reported in a certain time period with Most base layers of crypto. So one thing they do is create layers of micro transactions, and then roll them up into a larger lump sum for the base transaction. So a party sells 10 coins to 20 different people, but they only record the a single 10 coin transaction to the base layer.
Really? Just how does that work? Say in bitcoin, where transactions must be verified and added to the blockchain to be final, what address is used to roll the coins up, and what address allows for a single blockchain entry to get those coins to 20 different people?

I fear the touted levels solutions are mere gossamer.


https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lightning-network.asp

Here's a good basic summary.



Quote:

Say Alice opens a channel with her favorite coffee shop and deposits $100 worth of bitcoin in it. Her transactions with the coffee shop are instant because she has a direct channel with it.

Bob, who has another channel open with the grocery store he visits most frequently, also buys coffee from Alice's shop. The connection between Alice, the coffee shop, and Bob ensures that Alice can use funds from her balance with the coffee shop to buy groceries from Bob's store. Similarly, Bob can use his grocery store balance to conduct transactions with businesses in Alice's network.

If Bob closes his channel with the grocery store (and there are no other customers in common between the coffee shop and grocery store), then Alice will have to open another channel with the grocery store to make purchases there. In this way, a web of transactions is created and routed between multiple lightning nodes in a decentralized fashion.

On a more technical level, the lightning network uses smart contracts and multi-signature scripts to implement its vision. An initial transaction, called the funding transaction, is created when one or both parties fund a channel. In a typical multi-signature environment, two master keys (one public and another private) are initially exchanged. The exchange facilitates access and spending of funds.

In the case of a lightning node, however, the signatures are not exchanged. This is done to prevent the funding transactions' spend from being recognized by the main blockchain. Instead, the two parties exchange a single key that is used to validate spending transactions (also called commitment transactions) between themselves.

The two parties can conduct endless commitment transactions between themselves and other nodes on a lightning network. They exchange their master keys only when the channel between them is closed.



Accepting any scalability benefits in the web design, there remains a number of puzzlers in the explanation that give pause.

One is that Alice cannot commit Bob's bitcoin to buy groceries at Bob's market, so her bitcoin must be encumbered. However, her initial funding transaction would appear to be an open-ended base-level deal with the coffee shop, so there seemingly could be no subsequent commitment transactions involving a third party (the grocery store).

If a smart contract option is used, Alice would commit the grocery payment to the coffee ship under their base agreement, the coffee shop would commit a like amount to Bob under their channel pact, and Bob would cover Alice's bill through his bitcoin stash with the grocery. Those payments might be instantaneous on Lightning's network books, but they are IOUs and virtual liens in original bitcoin's eyes.

If all goes well, the sums would square when all the accounts are settled and posted to a bitcoin block, but suppose the coffee shop didn't want open-ended commitment transfers on its books? Or how would such transfers affect Bob's tax returns?

In any case, it doesn't seem to explain how micropayments from multiple sources can be bundled and distributed to multiple recipients under a single bitcoin blockchain entry (as implied by various posters).

AggiEE
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Deluxe said:

Did you actually watch it or are you just posting it here because someone on Twitter said it was a "scathing takedown"?

I just skimmed through it myself. The irony is that I agree with alot of what he's saying. I can get into some specific rebuttals of things I don't agree with/think are misleading, but I'd like for you to demonstrate that you at least watched it before engaging in a discussion. Be specific and technical.

I watched the entire thing. He literally says in the opening statements he hopes the entire idea will die in a dumpster fire.

So...it is very scathing and he breaks down why it is not good as a store of value, as a technology it isn't even all that novel (in current form), how it's not ideal as a currency, how it's not efficient at all at transfers, how heavily manipulated and shilled the market is since it's highly unregulated, and that many of the problems it attempts to solve are already largely implemented in a superior and more secure form with traditional financial institutions.

What exactly did you disagree with and why did you think his assessment wasn't extremely harsh?
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