Sea Speed said:

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Are y'all not moving now?

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Pushing it to next year. We aren't desperate to sell so we will just float between the two. Timing just didn't work out.

This market is terrible. We've been tracking ~25 homes in our comp range for a month and only 2 have sold after dropping significantly in price. I'm not willing to sell my home for what I paid 7 years ago so we will just stay here and do 50/50.

edit: First world problems.

Yes I've been trying to buy another house and sellers aren't realizing how bad the market is and are still pricing then like it was last year. Every home I'm watching has been sitting and sitting with reduction after reduction and then longer this goes on the more they are going to have to lower that price because of inflation and interest rates. I'm hoping for some really good deals soon, for a new family home and as rentals. A lot of folks are going to be taking haircuts soon I think. I'm seeing some nice houses sit.

Sea Speed said:

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Yes I've been trying to buy another house and sellers aren't realizing how bad the market is and are still pricing then like it was last year. Every home I'm watching has been sitting and sitting with reduction after reduction and then longer this goes on the more they are going to have to lower that price because of inflation and interest rates. I'm hoping for some really good deals soon, for a new family home and as rentals. A lot of folks are going to be taking haircuts soon I think. I'm seeing some nice houses sit.

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Yep, most people probably haven't done the math to realize that an entire swath of buyers who could previously purchase A class houses at 3% are now priced out and have to resort to buying D class houses at 6+%.

The available pool of buyers for houses in my range has all but disappeared.

Not that my house is A class...this is for illustrative purposes.

No I completely understand what you're saying. I think the folks who were scraping together everything to buy a 150-200k class home are the real lovers here. Stuck renting because the interest rates alone make it like having 2 P&I payments. I'm very very glad I'm not a first time home buyer.

"guts"... That's a nice way to put it.

exp said:

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txaggie_08 said:

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exp said:

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Money Printer is coming. House prices will not fall that much.

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Why? Why would it make any sense to print more money right now?

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Because if they don't the USA will default on it's debt. The current Fed actions are a show that will be cancelled soon to literally save the global us Treasury based fiat financial system from collapsing.

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- 31 trillion in official debt
- 161 trillion in unfunded liabilities - "unofficial debt"
- 4.1 trillion in revenue from an economy fueled by Trump tax and fiscal policies that, should a recession occur, could easily go to 3 to 3.5 trillion.

192 trillion x 2% = 3.8 trillion
192 trillion x 3% = 5.7 trillion
192 trillion x 4% = 7.6 trillion

This is the annual interest payment on debt if our debt was fixed at these rates. No principle. The good news is the debt percentage rate is staggered over countless bonds and the last decade got us, the United States, some low interest rates on our debt. But considering the simplistic math problem above, we are going to have trouble making the interest payments when rates get too far above 2%. Forget about the principle. And don't forget about our $1 trillion annual deficit.

Higher Fed rates and the higher income and corporate tax rates will hurt the economy bad enough to where we are going to have a tax revenue problem. We need a juiced economy and high inflation. A new college grad making 100k and paying $30k in taxes won't cut it. We will all see college kids make 500k coming out of college and paying $150k in taxes. A $500k house now will be $2.5 million in the future and a $75 meal now will be $300. But everyone will be making "more" money. That is only we pay our interest payment on the debt.

The alternative is defaulting on our debt obligations. Then dollar becomes worthless and we are a third world country. But this would solve our illegal immigration problem, so we will have that going for us.

We are going to have low rates and high inflation. There is not an alternative.

Medaggie said:

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Small time investors like me have essentially left the buying market. People wanting to go from renting to buying are drying up facing 1.5-2x P&I on a similar home at 3%. I am hearing large VCs also are being very picky b/c financing is difficult.

Economics are about supply and demand. So if demand is going down, to keep prices stable, supply has to go down. If supply increases due to lost of job, then you will see a sharp drop.

I would be willing to take on a 6-7% interest rate if I am getting a 30% reduction from last year. No way am I taking on this much risk for a 10-15% reduction.

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Its as simple as this.

What I was basically saying earlier in the thread.

(Its the sunshine pumper RE people that were saying there was the ever present supply shortage that was going to keep the prices up as mortgage payments essentially doubled for normal folks). For the same reason sellers are reluctant to lower prices on the belief that their real estate is some how immune from monetary policy, the same reason buyers aren't buying just reflected. Something will give eventually.

I was on a call yesterday with people from various banks and other mortgage lenders and this was discussed.

Let's say you signed a contract with a production builder in the spring at $500K and now as the house is nearing completion the market has changed and the appraisal for your purchase money mortgage comes in at $470K. Does the builder drop the price? Do you have to come up with an additional $24K now that your max loan (using 20% down as an example) since $$376K is now your max loan instead of $400K?

Contract would typically say buyer has to come up with the difference. Weather they choose to enforce that would depend on the builder (and how large the deposit is)

The conversation was started by someone who said his market has had a rash of buyers walking away in that case. There is always the other issue of having been prequalified at 3% and now long maybe struggling to qualify at 6% or whatever.

A house in the area we're looking at went on the market today, viewings starting tomorrow. Reached out to my realtor and set up a viewing at lunch and already 10+ appointments set up.

htxag09 said:

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A house in the area we're looking at went on the market today, viewings starting tomorrow. Reached out to my realtor and set up a viewing at lunch and already 10+ appointments set up.

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May i ask price of home? I'm assuming it's below $700k?

Where we are, $700K seems to be the magic stopping point now. If it's below that, things are still moving. If it's above that, nothing at all.

Having said that, we had a showing this afternoon out of the blue. Lady is coming back on Sunday with her kids. We are going to play this lead out and if nothing comes of it, we are shutting it down.

Slightly above $1mm

Millennial: can't afford a house?

Trumpism, though not necessarily solipsistic and undisciplined Trump himself, matters here:

- Bad actors such as BlackRock really do distort the market
- Land use regulation, which can work with conservationism IF there is minimal immigration
- WHY DO WE ALLOW FOREIGN BUYERS? WHO ELSE DOES THIS ? (NO ONE)

Thank God the dollar is mostly the global reserve currency.

Pat Buchanan was always correct.

Dan Scott said:

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I knew I was relocating at end of this year so earlier this year had target around $800K around $650K loan for comfortable payment. With these rates now, a 650K loan is now around $500K so I need to put additional $150K down or buy a home for around $600K. There is big difference between $800K and $600K home.

Pisses me off especially having to move out of my near perfect home with 3% mortgage.

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Don't worry. Prices are going to come down a lot more. I sold a house I lived in for over 20 years in Nov 19 for $1mm and we bought a tear down in West Austin for $780 with plans to build new. Covid hit - my old house went to $2mm and our tear down project we said no. Sold it in Feb for $1.4mm. Sorry your timing sucks and Biden f'k you. Housing is screwed. Institutional Money is leaving the space with rates rising. No more large land grabs for Blackstone et Al.

YouBet said:

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No one really knows what they are talking about at this point.

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No kidding.

My money is on a straight up recession next year. There has been nothing "subtle" about the economy so I just can't see a "soft landing." But thats just a pure guess.

Redstone said:

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For those reasons, a housing crash is contextual. I doubt it hits Texas.

We are at a new plateau. Both political parties are at fault (remember moron W and his "ownership society," ie no lending standards) … and the Left is most delusional.

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It hits Texas. To what extent. Don't know. But its not possible that Texas is immune for monetary policy of the fed which directly affects the market.

Tex117 said:

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YouBet said:

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No one really knows what they are talking about at this point.

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No kidding.

My money is on a straight up recession next year. There has been nothing "subtle" about the economy so I just can't see a "soft landing." But thats just a pure guess.

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Interestingly, the former head of Goldman predicts a 95% chance of recession next year. Now that he's out and maybe doesn't have clients on his jock I guess he can be real.

YouBet said:

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Tex117 said:

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YouBet said:

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No one really knows what they are talking about at this point.

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No kidding.

My money is on a straight up recession next year. There has been nothing "subtle" about the economy so I just can't see a "soft landing." But thats just a pure guess.

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Interestingly, the former head of Goldman predicts a 95% chance of recession next year. Now that he's out and maybe doesn't have clients on his jock I guess he can be real.

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Ha! Probably right.

Medaggie said:

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Small time investors like me have essentially left the buying market. People wanting to go from renting to buying are drying up facing 1.5-2x P&I on a similar home at 3%. I am hearing large VCs also are being very picky b/c financing is difficult.

Economics are about supply and demand. So if demand is going down, to keep prices stable, supply has to go down. If supply increases due to lost of job, then you will see a sharp drop.

I would be willing to take on a 6-7% interest rate if I am getting a 30% reduction from last year. No way am I taking on this much risk for a 10-15% reduction.

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I'm in the same boat...I've been looking hard for awhile to add another rental to my portfolio in BCS and it appears there's very little that make it worth it. Most of what I see would be negative cash flow, especially with rates today.

And the ones that are rentals and listed aren't going to budge from their number. They have tenants paying the bills so no reason for them not to test the waters and no reason to sell below their threshold.

AgsMyDude said:

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YouBet said:

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Tex117 said:

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YouBet said:

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No one really knows what they are talking about at this point.

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No kidding.

My money is on a straight up recession next year. There has been nothing "subtle" about the economy so I just can't see a "soft landing." But thats just a pure guess.

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Interestingly, the former head of Goldman predicts a 95% chance of recession next year. Now that he's out and maybe doesn't have clients on his jock I guess he can be real.

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Recession next year? As in another one or simply a continuation of the recession were currently in.

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Exactly.

YouBet said:

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AgsMyDude said:

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YouBet said:

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Tex117 said:

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YouBet said:

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No one really knows what they are talking about at this point.

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No kidding.

My money is on a straight up recession next year. There has been nothing "subtle" about the economy so I just can't see a "soft landing." But thats just a pure guess.

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Interestingly, the former head of Goldman predicts a 95% chance of recession next year. Now that he's out and maybe doesn't have clients on his jock I guess he can be real.

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Recession next year? As in another one or simply a continuation of the recession were currently in.

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Exactly.

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Well, which is it?

AgsMyDude said:

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YouBet said:

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AgsMyDude said:

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YouBet said:

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Tex117 said:

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YouBet said:

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No one really knows what they are talking about at this point.

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No kidding.

My money is on a straight up recession next year. There has been nothing "subtle" about the economy so I just can't see a "soft landing." But thats just a pure guess.

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Interestingly, the former head of Goldman predicts a 95% chance of recession next year. Now that he's out and maybe doesn't have clients on his jock I guess he can be real.

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Recession next year? As in another one or simply a continuation of the recession were currently in.

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Exactly.

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Well, which is it?

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Why not both at this rate. Everyone has manipulated the meaning of it to the point that we no longer live in reality.