I'm not so sure about the numbers including the large adj. factors floating through the system. API printed big this afternoon but expect the EIA to be a smallish build given the massive adjustment factor from last week.

I think there is alot of noise in the data. I think products will lead the way and we are still critically low.


I think crude and gas are on different paths. Crude oil is getting harder to find in shale and we will continue to see GOR increase as we move down the acreage tiers.

I think crude will be pressured/range bound until early May. From that point, I struggle to see how output truly keeps up with demand.

Do you trade natty for a living or is trading natty coming out of winter something to get the adrenaline flowing?

I'll say what I think he's trying to say. If this account is a gambling account, then go for it, because you're gambling on weather models at this point.

We're really over-supplied and it's a shoulder month. Supply isn't going to rapidly change and the cold weather models fell apart, hence the $.40 drop in price.

Historically speaking , March and April have been some of the best months to invest in. January is hands down the worst followed by February. Not sure why everyone thinks buying in now is a bad time.

bc anyone playing natty futures via an ETF needs their head examined.

Yeah. Nearing a low only hit a handful of times in the past 25 years. Terrible time to buy. Outside of a personal attack, I haven't heard a valid argument against getting in at the low 2s.

Go listen to earnings calls from public's that are playing around over there. Then ask why they love to talk about the sustained production rates, but say it's too early to discuss costs. Maybe because they're north of $25MM and won't generate a good return at these prices.

Philip J Fry said:

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Yeah. Nearing a low only hit a handful of times in the past 25 years. Terrible time to buy. Outside of a personal attack, I haven't heard a valid argument against getting in at the low 2s.

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Hard to compare historical's when we've never been able to grow supply as quickly as we can now. I'd say the argument is we responded way too aggressively to $6+ gas and it will take several months to drop rigs, release frac crews, and slow production. Given we're heading into summer months, near-term gas ETF's still have more down-side risk than up-side potential. I'd love nothing more than gas to rebound, but I don't see it happening in 2023.