Times like this are why hedges are important as an operator. Hope everyone is hedged.

That's great in hindsight. Every analyst was questioning why operators were so heavily hedged this time last year.

Most the public's rolled into 2023 very lightly hedged

You're coming across as pretty condescending here, and yeah I assume most people know the EIA releases that on Thursday.

topher06 said:

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You're coming across as pretty condescending here, and yeah I assume most people know the EIA releases that on Thursday.

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He said I've provided no valuable information but I'm condescending. And I'm assuming nothing on what people know here. I legit don't want people losing money on things they don't understand and hubris is probably the biggest cause of investment losses out there.

You call this condescension, but I really am just trying to give a wider perspective here. Sometimes laying that out for people who need to see it doesn't return a pleasant picture they want to see.

You're really full of yourself aren't you. Let me give you a little perspective. No one, I mean no one, can fully understand what's going to happen in the next week or month in any market, much less the wholesale natural gas market. If they did, they would be a trillionaire. Sure , it's fine to educate yourself as much as possible, but there's going to be risk is any investment. We live in a volatile world.

And as I've stated previously, I literally have .5% of my non real estate investments in UNG and a lot lower percentage in my overall portfolio of investments. So it's play money.

And I'm sure you're going to come back by saying UNG isn't an "investment", but pure gambling and I should have just used it to buy a nice steak dinner for my wife.

I don't need to do that as I grill a mean sirloin.

Heres a chart for you. look at the 10 year chart and tell me prices arent 'low'.

Natural Gas Prices - Historical Chart | MacroTrends


Look at the 30 year chart and tell me prices aren't "low"

ATM9000 said:

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topher06 said:

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You're coming across as pretty condescending here, and yeah I assume most people know the EIA releases that on Thursday.

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He said I've provided no valuable information but I'm condescending. And I'm assuming nothing on what people know here. I legit don't want people losing money on things they don't understand and hubris is probably the biggest cause of investment losses out there.

You call this condescension, but I really am just trying to give a wider perspective here. Sometimes laying that out for people who need to see it doesn't return a pleasant picture they want to see.

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Correct.

Quote:

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Anyhow, remember this post when after you've gone through 3 or 4 Futures rolls with UNG and realized losses that could have been a nice steak dinner with your spouse and decide to punch out.

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This is not a "looking out for people" type of post, and you know that. This is a post an ******* makes when others are losing money so that everyone sees how much smarter they are.

It's funny to me how many people continue to make this type of post, then pretend to be offended like they're just trying to be helpful. Give me a damn break.

You: Come in and act like an arrogant *****.

Get called out on it.

Also you: Act surprised, deflect, and gaslight like you're trying to be helpful.

Sorry I can see through your bs.

nancydeedavis said:

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txaggieacct85 said:

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Heres a chart for you. look at the 10 year chart and tell me prices arent 'low'.

Natural Gas Prices - Historical Chart | MacroTrends


Look at the 30 year chart and tell me prices aren't "low"

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Prices are low right now. They can easily drop another 50% over the next 12 months. I think that's where most here disagree with the investment decision.

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Possible, but highly unlikely and would be unprecedented

I never expected oil to go negative either.

Comeby! said:

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I never expected oil to go negative either.

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Neither did I but it was a historical event that's never happened and only lasted less than one month and crude oil rebounded quite nicely.

I have my own company and we implement and support ERP systems and I got a call I never thought I would get.

"Does the system support negative prices?" I didnt know that was possible.

If we all plan on historically negative occurrences, we might all crawl up in a ball and hide in the closet.

ATM9000 said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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You: Come in and act like an arrogant *****.

Get called out on it.

Also you: Act surprised, deflect, and gaslight like you're trying to be helpful.

Sorry I can see through your bs.

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Oh grow up. At least the other guy has a sense of humor about it.

If this play isn't making you poor, giving you guys grief for investing in an ETF that eats itself when the underlying is in heavy contango in the long run and the short term fundamentals both in the US and globally are stacked against you is fair game. It really is no different than laughing at a dope in the sports book for putting $200 down on a 10 game NFL parlay.

If this play IS making you poor, I'd urge you to see past the ball busting at the wider perspective.

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As much as you seem to like talking about gambling, I'm assuming this is classic projection on your part.

txaggieacct85 said:

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Comeby! said:

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I never expected oil to go negative either.

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Neither did I but it was a historical event that's never happened and only lasted less than one month and crude oil rebounded quite nicely.

I have my own company and we implement and support ERP systems and I got a call I never thought I would get.

"Does the system support negative prices" I didnt know that was possible.

If we all plan on historically negative occurrences, we might all crawl up in a ball and hide in the closet?

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Good luck with that ace.

Did you all buy in when it was negative?

Didn't have a choice. Had thousands of barrels of oil producing on my wells. I was as bought in as you can get.

txaggieacct85 said:

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nancydeedavis said:

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txaggieacct85 said:

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Heres a chart for you. look at the 10 year chart and tell me prices arent 'low'.

Natural Gas Prices - Historical Chart | MacroTrends


Look at the 30 year chart and tell me prices aren't "low"

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Prices are low right now. They can easily drop another 50% over the next 12 months. I think that's where most here disagree with the investment decision.

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Possible, but highly unlikely and would be unprecedented

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I don't think they drop this much, but $1.50's is realistic. I don't know if I'd focus on historicals too much. Look at storage forecasts. I just spent two days at DUG Haynesville and most operators aren't planning on significant curtailments. Oversupply in 2023 is still a really big concern.

ThreeFive said:

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txaggieacct85 said:

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nancydeedavis said:

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txaggieacct85 said:

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Heres a chart for you. look at the 10 year chart and tell me prices arent 'low'.

Natural Gas Prices - Historical Chart | MacroTrends


Look at the 30 year chart and tell me prices aren't "low"

---

Prices are low right now. They can easily drop another 50% over the next 12 months. I think that's where most here disagree with the investment decision.

---

Possible, but highly unlikely and would be unprecedented

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I don't think they drop this much, but $1.50's is realistic. I don't know if I'd focus on historicals too much. Look at storage forecasts. I just spent two days at DUG Haynesville and most operators aren't planning on significant curtailments. Oversupply in 2023 is still a really big concern.

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I concur.

I think the market is still try to solve for shut in, $1.50 plus differentials. One clarification is that the hub could be further pressured by continued, uneconomic drilling from the Haynesville bois.

Gotta be "LNG READY", lol.

UNG up 7% this morning

Was able to play these gap ups pretty nicely for the past week.

congrats on the winning trade.

Vegas loves people to win a bit. it keeps them coming back not unlike people trading things they don't understand and hitting it everyone once in awhile.

Furlock Bones said:

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Vegas loves people to win a bit. it keeps them coming back not unlike people trading things they don't understand and hitting it everyone once in awhile.

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when you're investment is a tiny percentage of your overall portfolio it really doesnt matter does it.

And I certainly understand plenty about natural gas prices and what drives them.

No matter how you slice it, currrent prices are historically low. Does that necessarily make it a good buy, no.

But they are still historically low.

I think the underlying product to effectuate the investment is key. A negative roll product into a contango market isnt ideal.

Still waiting on Proshares to do a reverse split so I can sell BOIL calls to degenerates again. Last time they went under $4 they reverse split the very next day (4/3/20). Not this time.

UNG up over 6% today. futures up for prompt month 7.7%

boom

Checking in.