flashplayer said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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FireAg said:

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Okay so still no real rhyme or reason for it to be climbing like this from a profitability standpoint…

You think geopolitical factors are likely the best explanation at this point?

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I have no idea. Maybe somebody knows Trump is about to announce a stake.

Breakout sentiment doesn't always make sense. The stock market has an emerging quality to it. Sentiment leads fundamentals always.

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I thought about that (some in the know scooping up before federal acquisition/ support), but it doesn't really stand to reason because if that were the case, they would buy a whole hell of a lot more of it than that. I mean, it was just a penny stock. Even at these prices the entire float is worth chump change for most the big buyers. Price would be $50/ share if that were the case.

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It's been a joke of mine, but I literally can't rule it out. Moves like this usually equate to either massive meme adoption or significant institutional pumping. Institutions can pump to make a quick buck, being the first to sell and turnaround short. They can also pump because they feel strongly in the company. We just don't know right now. That's why I follow the waves of sentiment. Every move in this pattern has been 3-waves until it got over $2.20 with force. That blew out my diagonal thesis (combos of 3-wave moves up and down with each one never exceeding 161.8% of the prior move in the same direction). Like I said before, penny stocks are weird. There's usually no sentiment that can be reliably modeled.. until there is.. then its all at once.

If I can ask…is it possible to do a behavioral compare/contrast with say something like NVIDIA?

I know…not the same tech sectors, but in terms of stock value behavior early on…any interesting parallels worth noting?

FireAg said:

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If I can ask…is it possible to do a behavioral compare/contrast with say something like NVIDIA?

I know…not the same tech sectors, but in terms of stock value behavior early on…any interesting parallels worth noting?

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Well, first it was cheap. Then … WHAMO! To the moon!

Well yeah…that's the easy route…was really more interested in whether or not NVIDIA followed a similar wave pattern…

Has anyone been selling puts? The $1 May puts look nice. 37% return if you don't get assigned and 0.63 cost basis if you do? I think I am jumping on those in the morning.

flashplayer said:

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Has anyone been selling puts? The $1 May puts look nice. 37% return if you don't get assigned and 0.63 cost basis if you do? I think I am jumping on those in the morning.

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My only issue in doing this is that May is such a long way away to tie up cash or margin for this trade

Yeah but is there something out there doing better than 63% adjusted annually? Obviously there's no guarantees but it seems like most here don't expect a revisit to anywhere near the 60 cents area or much under a dollar for that matter.

Let me acknowledge your fair point as it looks like November puts are bringing 7% / 84% annual. So that could be a consideration for an easy 7% and then turn around and sell a Feb one if that expires worthless.

If something BIG is going on I happen, I hope it happens by Friday.

I have been regularly (and regretfully) selling calls against some of my positions. But as a cheap insurance policy, I bought a handful of Oct $5 calls for .05 today. Maybe they will pay off and help recover some of my other Nov and Feb call sales

flashplayer said:

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Yeah but is there something out there doing better than 63% adjusted annually? Obviously there's no guarantees but it seems like most here don't expect a revisit to anywhere near the 60 cents area or much under a dollar for that matter.

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I agree and am thinking the same thing. Will be curious to see where the stock opens up tomorrow and at what price the options price at.

I wonder how many people would buy the $1 puts, as their upside is limited. After they pay the premium of 30+ cents, they can only hope that the company goes bankrupt, to make any money

The volume today on every expiration was decent at the $1 level so people are buying them. Probably people who bought in the 40s and 50s who are hedging mostly is my guess.

FireAg said:

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If I can ask…is it possible to do a behavioral compare/contrast with say something like NVIDIA?

I know…not the same tech sectors, but in terms of stock value behavior early on…any interesting parallels worth noting?

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Sure. compare anything you want. But I'll tell you something I learned a long time ago but didn't practice until it was too late..

Each chart on its own.

The market can be fractal in nature. That means that sentiment in moves in waves that are rhythmic, sometimes repeatable, and often measurable. But it's NEVER the same. And what works for one rarely works the same way for another.

So in other words, it's a crap shoot each time…

That's fair…I'm guessing we won't see this stock each the 100s…but even 10-20s makes me feel good…

FireAg said:

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So in other words, it's a crap shoot each time…

That's fair…I'm guessing we won't see this stock each the 100s…but even 10-20s makes me feel good…

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Not so much a crapshoot as it is that each stock is a different beast with the same instincts. Some of the moves will be predictable and some won't, but you can't use one to predict the path of the other due to all the extraneous factors. Also think of each stock as being in a different part of a life cycle. You can't compare one thats a teenager to another that is an old fart. And it's less helpful to compare one from a different sector to one in another. Similar to different cultures that influence someone's actions. Lots of nuance. The best thing you can learn by studying the charts is human psychology. Start to look for patterns and go from there.

flashplayer said:

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The volume today on every expiration was decent at the $1 level so people are buying them. Probably people who bought in the 40s and 50s who are hedging mostly is my guess.

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Surely those $40 - 50 tax lost harvested at some point and bought back in much lower 30 days later? I bought and sold this a bit since first introduced to the board in I believe Aug 2020. Flipped quick gains, sold covered calls then got caught with with some pretty depressed shares in late maybe 2021 or 2022 and sold to take my losses in mid/late Nov so I could buy back late in the same hoping to catch a lot of very late year tax loss sellers pushing it down even lower. I'm not a day trader by any means but this one has been a ride. Especially these last few days. I'm going to sit on hands and watch right now. Appreciate all the discussion on this one

Woah there. I meant 0.40-0.50. Talking cents man. More recent buyers of the lows.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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FireAg said:

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It's seems that it is slightly outperforming even your bullish predictions…

In your opinion, what is driving the value on this stock right now?

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Bullish sentiment.

The pragmatist in me says this move will sell back at some point, as the company still isn't THAT close to becoming profitable. This seems all geopolitical. Reality would come back, it would base at a higher low, and then proceed higher on next

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Sort of reminds me of OKLO who only applied for and received one permit and don't expect the plant to be open till 2029.

flashplayer said:

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Woah there. I meant 0.40-0.50. Talking cents man. More recent buyers of the lows.

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Ok my bad!!!

Sorry I missed the whole point. In at $.81

Let's go WWR

Y'all seen the futures for this today yet????

jokershady said:

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Y'all seen the futures for this today yet????

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Dos Lamborghinis Day

It's already way outside the upper band before today's open and assuming the futures hold it'll be even crazier….gotta be a pull back today question is just how much?

jokershady said:

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Y'all seen the futures for this today yet????

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Meh. In it to win it. $120+ or bust.

jokershady said:

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It's already way outside the upper band before today's open and assuming the futures hold it'll be even crazier….gotta be a pull back today question is just how much?

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Curious…why does there have to be a pullback today?

Because human nature.

Somewhere today there's folks going, "holy crap a 300 - 600% return! I'm out!"

Or more recently, "holy crap a 40 - 80% return. I'm out!"

Also it's barely over 3 bucks could be a psychological barrier and duck under 3…..

Who knows i could be completely wrong….also a pull back doesn't have to be something huge either….

And it's under 3 already…..

jokershady said:

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And it's under 3 already…..

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Oh no! Only 16.5% higher than yesterday's close.

Run fir the hills!!!!

So far your human nature theory is coming to fruition…

Very interesting…

And I set a $2.50 limit….yipee

Bought the dip at 2.65.