How is the war in Iran going to effect the stock markets?

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YouBet
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In reply to jh0400 • 9:48a, 3/28/26
AG
jh0400 said:
YouBet said:
Sapper Redux said:
YouBet said:
bigtruckguy3500 said:
I think the key to doing well is knowing someone in the administration. Apparently some big insider trading going on.


Welcome to the US government. That has always been the case. See Pelosi and Crenshaw.


Should it not be investigated and prosecuted?


Assuming we are investigating regardless of political party, then yes.

If it were up to me, none of those m'fers would be allowed to trade while in office. They would have to put everything in a trust or some other temporary holding vehicle. Or be limited to public mutual funds or time horizon based funds.


This is required of almost any other profession that has the ability to influence stocks. Investments are entirely restricted or subject to compliance scrutiny. The fact that Congress gets by with things that the SEC would hang a normal person for is ridiculous.


I agree.
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Fredd
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In reply to He Who Shall Be Unnamed • 10:30a, 3/28/26
AG
He Who Shall Be Unnamed said:
I gave up on trying to time the market several crashes ago. I rarely keep any significant amount in cash, and I am always very heavy in equities. Just passed the $700,000 loss mark today and the market shows no sign of doing anything but dropping more. Love it!!!



Humble brag
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He Who Shall Be Unnamed
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In reply to YouBet • 11:38a, 3/28/26
YouBet said:
He Who Shall Be Unnamed said:
I gave up on trying to time the market several crashes ago. I rarely keep any significant amount in cash, and I am always very heavy in equities. Just passed the $700,000 loss mark today and the market shows no sign of doing anything but dropping more. Love it!!!


What's your time horizon?

I have at least 2 1/2 years more to work full time. At that time, a confluence of things will all occur (won't be contractually obligated to work full time, penalty for early retirement will be lessened, son will finish up with undergraduate studies, and a retirement condo I have $$ down on will be built). My Financial Advisor wants me to put three years of living expenses into cash equivalents prior to my retirement, so that is also a consideration for investing new funds as they come in (I am not going to put more than two years away, I have decided). If I do that, I won't be able to invest much while the market is down.

I also look at different buckets of my portfolio as having differing time horizons. A portion I hope to never touch and pass down to my son in the hopes that he either uses it to start a business, fund his children's education, etc. Another portion is going to be needed rather acutely in the form of a draw to fund the retirement home's construction. I am 15 years away from RMD. So, "time horizon" is all over the map.

As I said, I made the decisions a long time ago that I cannot time the market - also, that, long term, equities are what outperform other investment vehicles. Because of this, I am currently suffering through the significant downside of a near correction. And it sucks. I did nothing in April and it all came back. All I can do (unless I change my game plan) is to hope the same happens here. And ***** on TexAgs about watching the equivalent of a really nice house get whisked away, at least on paper, because of political decisions.

Loosely paraphrasing the poet and prophet Butthead, "If nothing ever sucked, Beavis, how would you know when something kicks ass?". I hope he's right (again).
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Mr.Milkshake
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4:14p, 3/28/26
You have $0 until you exit the market. Until then whatever you gain or lose is imaginary.
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bigtruckguy3500
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In reply to YouBet • 5:01p, 3/28/26
YouBet said:
bigtruckguy3500 said:
I think the key to doing well is knowing someone in the administration. Apparently some big insider trading going on.


Welcome to the US government. That has always been the case. See Pelosi and Crenshaw.

100%. However, as far as I know, those two (and others) aren't making public announcements to manipulate the market right before massive insider trading occurs. If certain people are to be believed, there was hundreds of millions of dollars in unexpected option trading that occurred before one of Trump's announcements last week, and similar around the time of all the tariffs.
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Dan Scott
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6:01p, 3/28/26
AG
There is a record of every transaction. The SEC could look into if they wanted.
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water turkey
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In reply to Dan Scott • 7:03p, 3/28/26
Dan Scott said:
There is a record of every transaction. The SEC could look into if they wanted.


The SEC ain't looking at anything these days
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chris1515
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In reply to water turkey • 7:55p, 3/28/26
AG
The next administration will have some fertile ground for all kinds of investigations.
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jh0400
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In reply to Dan Scott • 7:57p, 3/28/26
AG
Dan Scott said:
There is a record of every transaction. The SEC could look into if they wanted.


From what I understand, the big trades last week were done in futures, and the CFTC doesn't have the same enforcement as the SEC.
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YouBet
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In reply to bigtruckguy3500 • 9:49p, 3/28/26
AG
bigtruckguy3500 said:
YouBet said:
bigtruckguy3500 said:
I think the key to doing well is knowing someone in the administration. Apparently some big insider trading going on.


Welcome to the US government. That has always been the case. See Pelosi and Crenshaw.

100%. However, as far as I know, those two (and others) aren't making public announcements to manipulate the market right before massive insider trading occurs. If certain people are to be believed, there was hundreds of millions of dollars in unexpected option trading that occurred before one of Trump's announcements last week, and similar around the time of all the tariffs.


Well, I'm not sure what is being referred to here but I'm quite sure whatever it is, is not the first time it's happened.
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bigtruckguy3500
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1:36p, 3/30/26
Apparently a lot of countries in Asia are starting to ration gasoline, and some have even gone to a 4 day work week. Europe is hurting a lot more than we are at the pump as well. And supposedly the effects of all these won't be fully felt for months, even if the war ended today - certain facilities and infrastructure will take a long time to get repaired.

I think if we start seeing foreign economies go into recession, we won't be far behind. Looking at my accounts this morning and feeling some pain. But luckily I have probably over 20 years till I'll need any of it. Just going to continue to buy, rather than sell and lock in my losses if things suddenly do go up.
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Bayou City
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In reply to bigtruckguy3500 • 5:11p, 3/30/26
Be greedy when others are fearful
"I've lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened."

Mark Twain
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JohnClark929
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In reply to Bayou City • 7:11p, 3/30/26
Bayou City said:
Be greedy when others are fearful


Almost all investors are riding this out. This ain't fear. Fear goes much lower and last much longer.
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Hoyt Ag
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In reply to bigtruckguy3500 • 8:06p, 3/30/26
AG
Friends of mine operate 3 dives shops in the Philippines. They stocked up on as much fuel as they could but will be unable to run soon due to govt restrictions on fuel in the coming weeks.

We have a house in Thailand and our German neighbors WhatsApp messaged me the other day and said that we shouldn't come anytime soon since fuel will be restricted soon.
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bigtruckguy3500
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8:42p, 3/30/26


Can't verify if these numbers are true. Coming from a likely AI generated video. Could be Chinese propaganda. But the general principles hold.
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jamey
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9:35p, 3/30/26
AG
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He Who Shall Be Unnamed
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In reply to jamey • 6:32a, 3/31/26
jamey said:

So we would start a "war" which disproportionately affects our allies, since we are less reliant on oil flowing through the disrupted Strait of Hormuz than they are, then ask them to clean up the mess (which they aren't really even capable of doing)? That'll go well.
ETA: Point 4 of the full X post
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JohnClark929
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In reply to JohnClark929 • 4:26p, 3/31/26
JohnClark929 said:
Captain Winky said:
Define "soon".

I think Trump will declare victory this month but definitely before May 1.


My prediction wasn't special; everyone saw this coming..
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Captain Winky
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In reply to JohnClark929 • 9:23p, 3/31/26
I'm not sure what you are getting at. The war isn't over and Trump says whatever he wants to whether it is true or not.
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MarvZindler
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4:07p, 4/1/26
If it wasn't clear before, it's clear now that Iran's enriched Uranium has always been more of a bargaining chip, than actual nuke threat.

They are sitting on the Hormuz and would gladly cash in that Uranium for a new international shipping business. Trump claims victory for saving the world. Iran keeps their regime in charge and gets new cash flow. This is best outcome for markets IMO.

All other alternatives almost certainly take markets lower.
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YouBet
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In reply to Captain Winky • 5:34p, 4/1/26
AG
Captain Winky said:
I'm not sure what you are getting at. The war isn't over and Trump says whatever he wants to whether it is true or not.


He's getting at that we are now 4 weeks in and Trump always said this would be a 4-6 week effort. Consequently, you now have multiple signals and statements from Trump in the last couple of days about winding this thing down which is right on schedule with the original timeline.

Pretty straight forward.
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double aught
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8:32p, 4/1/26
AG
Spent over $100 on gas two days ago. Thanks Trump.
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Hill08
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In reply to double aught • 8:35p, 4/1/26
double aught said:
Spent over $100 on gas two days ago. Thanks Trump.


How much you spend 3-4 years ago? Suck it up.
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double aught
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In reply to Hill08 • 8:49p, 4/1/26
AG
Good talk.
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Sapper Redux
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In reply to Hill08 • 6:41a, 4/2/26
Hill08 said:
double aught said:
Spent over $100 on gas two days ago. Thanks Trump.


How much you spend 3-4 years ago? Suck it up.


So we shouldn't complain about a war of choice absolutely exploding fuel costs because a global supply shock caused high prices a few years ago?
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Captain Winky
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In reply to Sapper Redux • 7:53a, 4/2/26
Nope. When the DiMs do it, it's because they are evil and want everyone to be trans. When Trump does it, it's because it was absolutely necessary and he is playing 4D chess and if you question it, you are too stupid to be helped.
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JohnClark929
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In reply to double aught • 10:09a, 4/2/26
double aught said:
Spent over $100 on gas two days ago. Thanks Trump.


Just wait till June. Will be much worse.
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water turkey
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In reply to JohnClark929 • 12:22p, 4/2/26
JohnClark929 said:
double aught said:
Spent over $100 on gas two days ago. Thanks Trump.


Just wait till June. Will be much worse.


Wait til you see food prices inn6 months if farmers can't get urea for their crops….
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Captain Winky
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In reply to YouBet • 9:17p, 4/6/26
Pretty straightforward, indeed. Things are definitely winding down.
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YouBet
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In reply to Captain Winky • 9:51a, 4/7/26
AG
Captain Winky said:
Pretty straightforward, indeed. Things are definitely winding down.


We are still within the original 4-6 week time frame. His highly provocative statement today is obviously his Hail Mary to get Iran to the table because he's running out of time. And it looks like it didn't work so far, so it's off to Bridge and Plant day to try and get them to still capitulate on his time frame.

Seems doubtful that will work but who knows. If it does, then he still has time to meet his timeframe and winding down applies. If it doesn't, then we are in a new phase that I doubt many of us wanted to be in. I also still think Congress will shoot him down on going any further when May 1 gets here. And then this becomes a major domestic political crisis that I think he loses.
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Dr. Doctor
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In reply to YouBet • 12:09p, 4/7/26
AG
But what's the end goal? What are we trying to negotiate?

Open the Strait? It was open before. They closed it because of us.

Get rid of nuclear materials? Don't destroy the treaty you had in place before.


Stablize the region? Yeah, good luck on that.


What Iran has shown is that A) they are stronger than others thought, B) the US is flailing around, C) don't trust the US (killed 1, 2 negotiation groups; shown our air defenses won't protect assets) and D) we didn't have a plan and are trying to polish a turd on action.

The actions shown by the US are that of a mob boss. They are trying to push and get 'protection' money, but Iran don't care.

SO what happens if they blow up all the civilian infrastructure (War Crime, BTW)? Iran takes the hit, but then hits Saudi, Qatar, UAE production sites. Give the Houthis a bunch of drones and close the other side of SA on ship traffic. Now oil goes to $200 a barrel. During the attacks, the US loses more planes (how much hardware did we lose to get 2 pilots?), we shoot a bunch of missles/bombs that are slow to replentish and we expend MORE interceptors on the counter-attack (that are slow to replenish as well).


But I'll ask this again: we've declared once (twice) now that we've "won". Why give a deadline/time line if we've won? If we're giving a timeline/deadline, then, by definition, we haven't won.

This, being Tuesday, means it TACO day, IMHO.

~egon
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YouBet
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In reply to Dr. Doctor • 2:34p, 4/7/26
AG
Dr. Doctor said:
But what's the end goal? What are we trying to negotiate?

Open the Strait? It was open before. They closed it because of us.

Get rid of nuclear materials? Don't destroy the treaty you had in place before.


Stablize the region? Yeah, good luck on that.


What Iran has shown is that A) they are stronger than others thought, B) the US is flailing around, C) don't trust the US (killed 1, 2 negotiation groups; shown our air defenses won't protect assets) and D) we didn't have a plan and are trying to polish a turd on action.

The actions shown by the US are that of a mob boss. They are trying to push and get 'protection' money, but Iran don't care.

SO what happens if they blow up all the civilian infrastructure (War Crime, BTW)? Iran takes the hit, but then hits Saudi, Qatar, UAE production sites. Give the Houthis a bunch of drones and close the other side of SA on ship traffic. Now oil goes to $200 a barrel. During the attacks, the US loses more planes (how much hardware did we lose to get 2 pilots?), we shoot a bunch of missles/bombs that are slow to replentish and we expend MORE interceptors on the counter-attack (that are slow to replenish as well).


But I'll ask this again: we've declared once (twice) now that we've "won". Why give a deadline/time line if we've won? If we're giving a timeline/deadline, then, by definition, we haven't won.

This, being Tuesday, means it TACO day, IMHO.

~egon

That agreement didn't mean dick and blowing up infrastructure is not a war crime. That's been roundly debated and shot down on F16 so I don't care to rehash here. You can go read the thread over there and see arguments around these two topics.

Arguing against rescuing pilots over loss of hardware is a bad take and position if that's what you are arguing here. Good luck on that one.

I think the rest of what you say has some merit regarding this plan either not being fully baked or the plans we had have been degraded enough that we could end up in a bad outcome. Time will tell.
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Sapper Redux
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In reply to YouBet • 4:50p, 4/7/26
The agreement was working. No serious organization or expert in the area could deny it was working as designed. It stopped working when we broke the agreement unilaterally and demonstrated that we are completely unreliable as negotiating partners.

Also, destroying civilian infrastructure as punishment or not directly linked to a military target is absolutely a war crime. It's also one of the stupidest ****ing things you can do. "Bombing to the Stone Age" does not work. Period.
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LMCane
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In reply to Bayou City • 4:58p, 4/7/26
Bayou City said:
Be greedy when others are fearful

I have been buying $1000 a day for the past month

will be going up to $2000 as soon as there is some type of ceasefire

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TTUArmy
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In reply to Sapper Redux • 5:03p, 4/7/26
Sapper Redux said:
The agreement was working. No serious organization or expert in the area could deny it was working as designed. It stopped working when we broke the agreement unilaterally and demonstrated that we are completely unreliable as negotiating partners.

Also, destroying civilian infrastructure as punishment or not directly linked to a military target is absolutely a war crime. It's also one of the stupidest ****ing things you can do. "Bombing to the Stone Age" does not work. Period.

Well, the enemy does get a say when it's all over, or at least until there are none left to oppose. Given the nature of the people fighting the great Satan, "Bombing to the Stone Age" may be an awful and terribly unfortunate option. If nuclear annihilation is between us or them, I'd turn it all to glass to keep mine safe. And, I'd wear a ridiculous war criminal badge with pride.
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