It's been real good to my Canadian oil and gas stocks, Exxon, and Riley Exploration.

Sapper Redux said:

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The agreement was working. No serious organization or expert in the area could deny it was working as designed. It stopped working when we broke the agreement unilaterally and demonstrated that we are completely unreliable as negotiating partners.

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It really wasn't. After we pulled out of Obama's nuclear deal, the IAEA found that Iran had maintained a secret weapons program at multiple undeclared sites with undeclared materials until the early 2000's. They'd conducted undisclosed weapons and enrichment research with materials they never told the IAEA about, and very likely still had them. They were lying about their nuclear materials and research before, during, and after the JCPOA. Iran was always going to pursue high enrichment research and a bomb. They only agreed to the JCPOA to get out from under sanctions while maintaining the ability to research enrichment, albeit at a lower baseline.

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/iaea-investigations-irans-nuclear-activities

Quote:

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The IAEA's December 2015 report concluded that a "range of activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device were conducted in Iran prior to the end of 2003 as a coordinated effort, and some activities took place after 2003." The report further assessed that there were "no credible indications" of activities relevant to weaponization after 2009 or any diversion of nuclear materials for military purposes. The agency indicated in its report that Iran did not fully answer all of the IAEA's questions but provided enough information to address the inquiry. Following the report, the IAEA's Board of Governors passed a resolution in December 2015 closing the military dimensions investigation. Closure of the investigation was required to implement the JCPOA.

The IAEA's second investigation into Iran's past nuclear activities began in 2018 and is focused on evidence suggesting that Iran failed to declare all nuclear materials and activities from its pre-2003 nuclear program as legally required by its safeguards agreement. The investigation does not re-open the military dimensions file: it is focused on Iran's nuclear material accountancy obligations under its safeguards agreements.

As part of this investigation, the IAEA visited three undeclared locations in 2019 and 2020. Environmental samples taken from all three sites indicated that processed uranium had been present at all three locations. Iran has yet to provide the IAEA with technically credible explanations for the presence of uranium at two of those sites, Turquzabad and Varamin. In a May 2023 report, the IAEA said it had no further questions regarding the third site where uranium was detected, Marivan. The IAEA assessed that Iran conducted "explosive experiments with protective shielding in preparation for the use of neutron detectors." Iran claimed that a third-party state operating a mine and chemical lab at the site contaminated the area with uranium. The IAEA said this was a "possible" explanation.

---

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iaea-report-says-iran-had-secret-activities-with-undeclared-nuclear-material-2025-05-31/

Quote:

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The IAEA is still seeking explanations for uranium traces found years ago at two of four sites it has been investigating. Three hosted secret experiments, it found.
The IAEA has concluded that "these three locations, and other possible related locations, were part of an undeclared structured nuclear programme carried out by Iran until the early 2000s and that some activities used undeclared nuclear material", the report said.

Nuclear material and/or heavily contaminated equipment from that programme was stored at the fourth site, Turquzabad, between 2009 and 2018, it said.

"The Agency concludes that Iran did not declare nuclear material and nuclear-related activities at three undeclared locations in Iran, specifically, Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, and Turquzabad," the report said.

At Lavisan-Shian in Tehran, a disc made of uranium metal was "used in the production of explosively-driven neutron sources" at least twice in 2003, a process designed to initiate the explosion in a nuclear weapon, the report said, adding that it was part of "small-scale" tests.

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I would say the IAEA is a serious organization of credible experts with extensive knowledge of the situation, and their findings were pretty conclusive that Iran was not forthcoming about its nuclear ambitions, actively hid research and nuclear materials, and did so in the negotiations leading up to the JCPOA as well as during our participation.

Thank you. It's incredible that people think that deal was working. It's Iran - they lie.

And war is war; civil infrastructure has always been a target in war. I guess we need to go back and prosecute every country that has ever fought a war now. Typical left wing revisionist history on display.

Sapper Redux said:

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TTUArmy said:

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Sapper Redux said:

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The agreement was working. No serious organization or expert in the area could deny it was working as designed. It stopped working when we broke the agreement unilaterally and demonstrated that we are completely unreliable as negotiating partners.

Also, destroying civilian infrastructure as punishment or not directly linked to a military target is absolutely a war crime. It's also one of the stupidest ****ing things you can do. "Bombing to the Stone Age" does not work. Period.

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Well, the enemy does get a say when it's all over, or at least until there are none left to oppose. Given the nature of the people fighting the great Satan, "Bombing to the Stone Age" may be an awful and terribly unfortunate option. If nuclear annihilation is between us or them, I'd turn it all to glass to keep mine safe. And, I'd wear a ridiculous war criminal badge with pride.

---

That's what the Nazis thought about Jews and other undesirables, too. So much for helping the Iranian people. Looks like you're cool with genocide regardless of the merits.

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I'm "cool" with protecting my own first. Everything else is second. Everything...

Tell me, was it the CIA who got the Shah deposed and the Ayatollah seated, or did the Iranian people choose a dangerously devout, theocratic government to lead them? I'd like to know how much help we should offer the Iranian people for the mess they may or may not have created.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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TTUArmy said:

---

Sapper Redux said:

---

TTUArmy said:

---

Sapper Redux said:

---

The agreement was working. No serious organization or expert in the area could deny it was working as designed. It stopped working when we broke the agreement unilaterally and demonstrated that we are completely unreliable as negotiating partners.

Also, destroying civilian infrastructure as punishment or not directly linked to a military target is absolutely a war crime. It's also one of the stupidest ****ing things you can do. "Bombing to the Stone Age" does not work. Period.

---

Well, the enemy does get a say when it's all over, or at least until there are none left to oppose. Given the nature of the people fighting the great Satan, "Bombing to the Stone Age" may be an awful and terribly unfortunate option. If nuclear annihilation is between us or them, I'd turn it all to glass to keep mine safe. And, I'd wear a ridiculous war criminal badge with pride.

---

That's what the Nazis thought about Jews and other undesirables, too. So much for helping the Iranian people. Looks like you're cool with genocide regardless of the merits.

---

I'm "cool" with protecting my own first. Everything else is second. Everything...

Tell me, was it the CIA who got the Shah deposed and the Ayatollah seated, or did the Iranian people choose a dangerously devout, theocratic government to lead them? I'd like to know how much help we should offer the Iranian people for the mess they may or may not have created.

---

There is a lot more to it than that. The islamists were kind of a minority that came to power as part of an alliance of convenience. The uprising against the Shah was not a single popular group, but a handful of socialist, communist, islamist, and Arab nationalist groups. Ultimately though, support coalesced around Khomeini because he said the right things and he'd spent quite awhile building a support network from exile. After the revolution, he and his fellow islamists purged the socialist and communist elements and consolidated their power. The Iranian people did not choose the islamist government they ultimately got.

---

That's a very interesting perspective. Thank you.

Anyone ever watch that series on TV called, "The Blacklist" or read a Tom Clancy novel? There's always an agenda playing out in the shadows that most laypeople never know about. Nothing is ever black-and-white. What is black-and-white for me:

• Iran has been a hardline, Islamic nation since the 80's that openly supports the destruction of the US
• Iranian leadership is adamantly developing nuclear arms
• They are an immediate threat to the US and other nations in the ME...not just Israel

So, can we trust the Iranian government to keep their word in negotiations? I don't believe we can. I think Trump is pissing in the wind trying to negotiate with them. I'm certainly glad he is trying because I don't want to see human suffering or death here or there...I'm not a mad man.

Iranian leadership, guided by their deep religious fanaticism, will likely have to be compelled to drop their nuclear ambitions through strong actions. I don't think it's negotiable for them. They will simply buy time in a negotiation to keep doing what they are doing.

How does this information shape the markets? I think big capital has already rotated into energy and defense. That's where it will stay until there is a resolution to this Iran business. I think AI is crippled for the moment and private equity is on terribly shaky ground. Maybe the gains made in energy and defense will offset some of the bad bets made in private equities; helping the banks and Wall Street deleverage from that mess. And maybe...tinfoil hat placed on head...this Iran conflict is some shadow agenda by the Trump administration to help Wall Street out of a financial mess.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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TTUArmy said:

---

Sapper Redux said:

---

TTUArmy said:

---

Sapper Redux said:

---

The agreement was working. No serious organization or expert in the area could deny it was working as designed. It stopped working when we broke the agreement unilaterally and demonstrated that we are completely unreliable as negotiating partners.

Also, destroying civilian infrastructure as punishment or not directly linked to a military target is absolutely a war crime. It's also one of the stupidest ****ing things you can do. "Bombing to the Stone Age" does not work. Period.

---

Well, the enemy does get a say when it's all over, or at least until there are none left to oppose. Given the nature of the people fighting the great Satan, "Bombing to the Stone Age" may be an awful and terribly unfortunate option. If nuclear annihilation is between us or them, I'd turn it all to glass to keep mine safe. And, I'd wear a ridiculous war criminal badge with pride.

---

That's what the Nazis thought about Jews and other undesirables, too. So much for helping the Iranian people. Looks like you're cool with genocide regardless of the merits.

---

I'm "cool" with protecting my own first. Everything else is second. Everything...

Tell me, was it the CIA who got the Shah deposed and the Ayatollah seated, or did the Iranian people choose a dangerously devout, theocratic government to lead them? I'd like to know how much help we should offer the Iranian people for the mess they may or may not have created.

---

There is a lot more to it than that. The islamists were kind of a minority that came to power as part of an alliance of convenience. The uprising against the Shah was not a single popular group, but a handful of socialist, communist, islamist, and Arab nationalist groups. Ultimately though, support coalesced around Khomeini because he said the right things and he'd spent quite awhile building a support network from exile. After the revolution, he and his fellow islamists purged the socialist and communist elements and consolidated their power. The Iranian people did not choose the islamist government they ultimately got.

---

Hmm, and where do we see that happening now? Hmm. A coalition of scum right there.

Little dip was a fine time to move money from traditional to Roth IRA…..

How's that timeline working out?

TTUArmy said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

---

TTUArmy said:

---

Sapper Redux said:

---

TTUArmy said:

---

Sapper Redux said:

---

The agreement was working. No serious organization or expert in the area could deny it was working as designed. It stopped working when we broke the agreement unilaterally and demonstrated that we are completely unreliable as negotiating partners.

Also, destroying civilian infrastructure as punishment or not directly linked to a military target is absolutely a war crime. It's also one of the stupidest ****ing things you can do. "Bombing to the Stone Age" does not work. Period.

---

Well, the enemy does get a say when it's all over, or at least until there are none left to oppose. Given the nature of the people fighting the great Satan, "Bombing to the Stone Age" may be an awful and terribly unfortunate option. If nuclear annihilation is between us or them, I'd turn it all to glass to keep mine safe. And, I'd wear a ridiculous war criminal badge with pride.

---

That's what the Nazis thought about Jews and other undesirables, too. So much for helping the Iranian people. Looks like you're cool with genocide regardless of the merits.

---

I'm "cool" with protecting my own first. Everything else is second. Everything...

Tell me, was it the CIA who got the Shah deposed and the Ayatollah seated, or did the Iranian people choose a dangerously devout, theocratic government to lead them? I'd like to know how much help we should offer the Iranian people for the mess they may or may not have created.

---

There is a lot more to it than that. The islamists were kind of a minority that came to power as part of an alliance of convenience. The uprising against the Shah was not a single popular group, but a handful of socialist, communist, islamist, and Arab nationalist groups. Ultimately though, support coalesced around Khomeini because he said the right things and he'd spent quite awhile building a support network from exile. After the revolution, he and his fellow islamists purged the socialist and communist elements and consolidated their power. The Iranian people did not choose the islamist government they ultimately got.

---

That's a very interesting perspective. Thank you.

Anyone ever watch that series on TV called, "The Blacklist" or read a Tom Clancy novel? There's always an agenda playing out in the shadows that most laypeople never know about. Nothing is ever black-and-white. What is black-and-white for me:

• Iran has been a hardline, Islamic nation since the 80's that openly supports the destruction of the US
• Iranian leadership is adamantly developing nuclear arms
• They are an immediate threat to the US and other nations in the ME...not just Israel

So, can we trust the Iranian government to keep their word in negotiations? I don't believe we can. I think Trump is pissing in the wind trying to negotiate with them. I'm certainly glad he is trying because I don't want to see human suffering or death here or there...I'm not a mad man.

Iranian leadership, guided by their deep religious fanaticism, will likely have to be compelled to drop their nuclear ambitions through strong actions. I don't think it's negotiable for them. They will simply buy time in a negotiation to keep doing what they are doing.

How does this information shape the markets? I think big capital has already rotated into energy and defense. That's where it will stay until there is a resolution to this Iran business. I think AI is crippled for the moment and private equity is on terribly shaky ground. Maybe the gains made in energy and defense will offset some of the bad bets made in private equities; helping the banks and Wall Street deleverage from that mess. And maybe...tinfoil hat placed on head...this Iran conflict is some shadow agenda by the Trump administration to help Wall Street out of a financial mess.

---

Right now theyre not negotiating. Next phase comes out of the Putin playbook where they pretend to negotiate but its a lie

Captain Winky said:

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How's that timeline working out?

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Well, his ceasefire strategy let him do an end around and "reset" right before his timeline ran out. Pretty clever.

We will see if Congress balks but so far it doesn't look it.

Captain Winky said:

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Are you really spinning that as clever and a win? At some point you have to take the blinders off.

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It's absolutely clever as a way for him to get around the War Powers Act deadline. It was flat out announced they were going to try and just freeze them out with the blockade and try to avoid a confrontation with Congress by not going kinetic non-stop past the 60 days.

By doing a ceasefire, he can now use that as his reason for resetting and then going kinetic again if wants to. Will it work? Don't know but it looks like we might find out shortly since Iran has started slinging **** at us again.

I have no blinders. I wasn't 100% on board with this adventure in the first place. I'm just able to be objective about it because I can see why he's doing it. There is much more than just Iran going on here which others and I have posted about many times on other threads... and maybe this one too...I've lost track across the various ongoing Iran threads where all I've posted.

Sapper Redux said:

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YouBet said:

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Captain Winky said:

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How's that timeline working out?

---

Well, his ceasefire strategy let him do an end around and "reset" right before his timeline ran out. Pretty clever.

We will see if Congress balks but so far it doesn't look it.

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It's not clever. It's pretty stupid. He just has a compliant Congress that refuses to perform oversight so he gets away with it.

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It's clever because he didn't give Congress a blatant finger in the eye and dare them to stop him. He stopped on his own and pivoted. And now he's banking he can pivot back to fighting if Iran gives him reason to and he will claim "we reset the clock so you can't stop me".

You aren't thinking about this correctly.

Sapper Redux said:

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YouBet said:

---

Sapper Redux said:

---

YouBet said:

---

Captain Winky said:

---

How's that timeline working out?

---

Well, his ceasefire strategy let him do an end around and "reset" right before his timeline ran out. Pretty clever.

We will see if Congress balks but so far it doesn't look it.

---

It's not clever. It's pretty stupid. He just has a compliant Congress that refuses to perform oversight so he gets away with it.

---

It's clever because he didn't give Congress a blatant finger in the eye and dare them to stop him. He stopped on his own and pivoted. And now he's banking he can pivot back to fighting if Iran gives him reason to and he will claim "we reset the clock so you can't stop me".

You aren't thinking about this correctly.

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He didn't stop. A ceasefire is not an end to a conflict. It's a lull. It's an agreement to not shoot while the conflict remains ongoing and unresolved. Furthermore, the conflict never actually stopped. There's been sniping and violence throughout the time and the U.S. military was actively engaged throughout. All he did was make up an excuse to keep going without Congress. And Congress is sitting back and taking it because we don't have a functional government with actual separation of powers.

---

Irrelevant. You said what he did was stupid. What he did was make a chess move to give himself buffer against the next obvious call by Congress that could have potentially forced a domestic squabble that he doesn't want.

He got ahead of that for now and negated it with the ceasefire. Which you then state yourself in bold. What about that is "stupid"? He sidelined Congress so he could keep going, if he needs to.

This isn't hard.

Sapper Redux said:

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YouBet said:

---

Sapper Redux said:

---

YouBet said:

---

Sapper Redux said:

---

YouBet said:

---

Captain Winky said:

---

How's that timeline working out?

---

Well, his ceasefire strategy let him do an end around and "reset" right before his timeline ran out. Pretty clever.

We will see if Congress balks but so far it doesn't look it.

---

It's not clever. It's pretty stupid. He just has a compliant Congress that refuses to perform oversight so he gets away with it.

---

It's clever because he didn't give Congress a blatant finger in the eye and dare them to stop him. He stopped on his own and pivoted. And now he's banking he can pivot back to fighting if Iran gives him reason to and he will claim "we reset the clock so you can't stop me".

You aren't thinking about this correctly.

---

He didn't stop. A ceasefire is not an end to a conflict. It's a lull. It's an agreement to not shoot while the conflict remains ongoing and unresolved. Furthermore, the conflict never actually stopped. There's been sniping and violence throughout the time and the U.S. military was actively engaged throughout. All he did was make up an excuse to keep going without Congress. And Congress is sitting back and taking it because we don't have a functional government with actual separation of powers.

---

Irrelevant. You said what he did was stupid. What he did was make a chess move to give himself buffer against the next obvious call by Congress that could have potentially forced a domestic squabble that he doesn't want.

He got ahead of that for now and negated it with the ceasefire. Which you then state yourself in bold. What about that is "stupid"? He sidelined Congress so he could keep going, if he needs to.

This isn't hard.

---

His "chess move" was that of a pigeon. He **** on the board and walked away. It's not an actual argument he's making. He just made up something that the spineless lackeys in Congress could shrug at.

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It's worked so far, hasn't it? He neutered Congress on WPA while still pressuring Iran. About the best move he could have made to avoid a two front battle - against Iran and against Congress. If Congress chooses to lay down over it, that's their problem and doesn't make Trumps strategy stupid.

They still might wake up and run another vote out there to tell him to stop. They've tried 2-3 times already. If gas prices keep going up, he's going to bail and declare victory. Then we can debate if it really was.

Another month of gas prices north of $3.50. You ready to admit this whole thing has been stupid, or are you just going to move the goal posts and somehow spin this all as a genius move?

To answer the OP question, one could say that the Iran war has boosted the stock market and the closing of the SOH that was going to cause a world catastrophe, a global recession has not come to fruition.

For decades, we have been told that the commodities coming out of that part of the world are essential for our financial health and President Trump has proved that to be one big ass lie.

The SOH had been closed for weeks and oil prices have dropped and will continue to drop. Those rare commodities that are blocked from leaving that area, the stocks representing those commodities are flat.

As far as high gasoline prices, more people out driving in those gas guzzling big ass pickup trucks, unless you are LOLPOOR in case u pound the keyboards claiming how bad it is.



A.I.
Key Factors for 2026
Record precedent from 2025: AAA projected 72.2 million Americans traveling 50+ miles from home over the extended Independence Day period (June 28July 6, 2025), up 1.7 million from 2024 and 7 million from 2019. This included ~61.6 million by car (highest ever) and ~5.84 million by air.
2026 specifics: July 4 falls on a Saturday, creating a long weekend (with Friday, July 3, often observed as a holiday). This alignment typically boosts leisure travel. It's also the U.S. semiquincentennial (America 250), with major celebrations in places like Philadelphia, Washington D.C., New York, and Bostonlikely increasing demand for patriotic/historic destinations.