SS: are you taking at 62 or 70?

13,805 Views | 125 Replies | Last: 12 hrs ago by RAB83
SteveBott
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AG
Not sure your complaint.

Is SS slow, inefficient, non responsive? Yes.

But be a turtle and win the race. I've done it.
northeastag
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EliteZags said:

the projected at 70 won't show COLA increase estimate either so it will end up being higher as well

Really? I understand that the amount I collect each month will be higher based on the longer I wait to collect. But the amount that is being shown that I will collect when I'm 70 (on the SS website) hasn't changed since I stopped contributing to the system 3 years ago. It's hard to believe that I will receive a higher amount than what is shown on the site when I finally get there.
MemphisAg1
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northeastag said:

EliteZags said:

the projected at 70 won't show COLA increase estimate either so it will end up being higher as well

Really? I understand that the amount I collect each month will be higher based on the longer I wait to collect. But the amount that is being shown that I will collect when I'm 70 (on the SS website) hasn't changed since I stopped contributing to the system 3 years ago. It's hard to believe that I will receive a higher amount than what is shown on the site when I finally get there.

I'm pretty sure all those estimates by age are shown in today's dollars and don't account for COLA adjustments. COLA isn't known each year until the SSA calculates it based on the prior year's inflation. It could be zero. I wouldn't think of future COLA adjustments as "more money." They're simply an inflation adjustment to keep you whole in comparison to today's dollars.

Of course, there's a whole other discussion about how accurately the COLA adjustment mirrors real inflation, but I won't derail this thread with that.
one safe place
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SteveBott said:

Not sure your complaint.

Is SS slow, inefficient, non responsive? Yes.

But be a turtle and win the race. I've done it.

Read my post again, then. SS is slow, is inefficient, and is non responsive, like most governmental and quasi-governmental entities. That is my complaint. Being slow, inefficient, and non responsive, they are bloated with employees and we get to pay for it.
HECUBUS
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70, need to reduce taxable income as long as possible for retirement account conversions.
halfastros81
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They adjust the monthly benefit for COLA annually in most years so unless we go deflationary which is highly unlikely you will at some point indeed collect more than what your SS page shows your benefit will be at a specific claiming age . Believe it or not.

They only make adjustments for COLA starting after you claim for the most part. They generally do not change what your SS page shows as your base benefit at specific ages. So for planning purposes consider what it shows as you base benefit at whatever age you plan to claim and then it will adjust for COLA from there or if you want to be more conservative just plan for what it shows but expect that to go up over time. You can probably safely assume it will rise 2% per yr from the base if you really need to project the COLA adjustments in your planning. The median adjustment over the past 20 yrs has been 2.15%.

Go to your AI of choice and ask the question and it will explain it.

If you're delaying , the 8% per yr increase way more than offsets them not adjusting your projected base benefit for inflation. Granted the benefit of delaying is not a true 8% because inflation isn't figured in but it's still a net positive in most yrs. I can only think of one year where that wasn't the case thanks to President Autopen.
northeastag
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Thank you, halfastros81. That's a pretty good explanation and fits with what I'm seeing.
lobopride
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Social Security isn't going anywhere but the benefits will be worth less every year. The country needs high inflation to survive. I know they are adjusted for inflation, but guess whose numbers they use.
Pacifico
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lobopride said:

Social Security isn't going anywhere but the benefits will be worth less every year. The country needs high inflation to survive. I know they are adjusted for inflation, but guess whose numbers they use.

The country needs high interest rates to survive.
Buck Turgidson
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gggmann said:

FYI, Open Social Security is a pretty good tool for evaluating different scenarios.

https://opensocialsecurity.com/

I can't figure out what lifespans that site assumes.
lobopride
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Pacifico said:

lobopride said:

Social Security isn't going anywhere but the benefits will be worth less every year. The country needs high inflation to survive. I know they are adjusted for inflation, but guess whose numbers they use.

The country needs high interest rates to survive.


$2 Trillion in deficits and growing every year won't pay for themselves.
we are going to make the debt worth less by making the currency worth less (inflation/money supply increases). That is the only play in the playbook. We have no other choices. Fiat currencies always go to zero.
AgLaw02
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Federal government spending exceeds revenue by 40%. If the plan is to print money to make up the difference, does that mean we'd have to print enough for a 40% inflation rate?

I never took economics, so I don't know what I'm talking about, but I don't think you can print THAT much money every year without people completely abandoning the dollar.
P.H. Dexippus
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They don't have to print 40%. They just have to print enough to cover what taxes and borrowing don't. The plan is to keep taxing, printing, borrowing and inflating as much as they can without courting revolt, leaving the bill to future generations to figure out.

Insert M2 chart here.
lobopride
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Found this X post that was pretty interesting on this topic.

A. G. Pennypacker
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P.H. Dexippus said:

They don't have to print 40%. They just have to print enough to cover what taxes and borrowing don't. The plan is to keep taxing, printing, borrowing and inflating as much as they can without courting revolt, leaving the bill to future generations to figure out.

Insert M2 chart here.

M2 took a big jump during Covid years going from roughly 15.5 trillion in Feb 2020 to 21.8 trillion in April 2022. It's been pretty flat since then - at 22.7 in March 2026.
Ogre09
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I won't be eligible until the 2050s, so I'm planning on not getting any SS payouts ever. Pretty sure I'll be means tested out. I'm just hoping they don't come after me for taxes on my Roth, but I'm hedging my bets on even that.
halfastros81
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You're smart not to plan on SS benefits . I didn't either but now it looks like I will get some benefits. Will they be greater than what I put into it at gunpoint considering the opportunity value of that money … probably not.

Taxing you on your Roth would be double taxation. I wouldn't rule it out but it's going to be a tough argument by the feds and also will be very unpopular among a group of people that collectively have a lot of power .
MyMamaSaid
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Buck Turgidson said:

gggmann said:

FYI, Open Social Security is a pretty good tool for evaluating different scenarios.

https://opensocialsecurity.com/

I can't figure out what lifespans that site assumes.

I'm a data nerd, so wanted to know as well. Per ChatGPT Enterprise:

The "optimized" scenarios on OpenSocialSecurity.com are based on mortality assumptions that you choose (or leave at defaults), combined with actuarial probability tables. It is not using a single fixed life expectancy like "age 85."
By default, the calculator uses:
  • Social Security Administration cohort life tables
  • Probability-weighted survival modeling
  • Present-value calculations of lifetime benefits
In other words, it computes the expected lifetime value of each claiming strategy by weighting outcomes across many possible lifespans. It is essentially doing actuarial math, not assuming one deterministic death age.

So….basically uses your DOB and SS mortality tables. Seems like a decent input.
1626
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Ogre09 said:

I won't be eligible until the 2050s, so I'm planning on not getting any SS payouts ever. Pretty sure I'll be means tested out. I'm just hoping they don't come after me for taxes on my Roth, but I'm hedging my bets on even that.


Taxing my Roth retroactively would not be cool!
Z3phyr
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Ogre09 said:

I won't be eligible until the 2050s, so I'm planning on not getting any SS payouts ever. Pretty sure I'll be means tested out. I'm just hoping they don't come after me for taxes on my Roth, but I'm hedging my bets on even that.

Same, plan is heavy roth right now and start to add some single family real estate in my mid 30s. Never counting on social security and I think if I do get it I'll probably give it straight to church or charity
Z3phyr
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Less and less people will be prepared for retirement as social security gets weaker and weaker. I wouldn't be shocked if the majority votes to raise taxes wherever possible on the minority that took care of themselves
Ogre09
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Z3phyr said:

Less and less people will be prepared for retirement as social security gets weaker and weaker. I wouldn't be shocked if the majority votes to raise taxes wherever possible on the minority that took care of themselves



This is my concern. When I have $,$$$,$$$ and the majority of my peers have $$$, I'll get nothing and will probably told to give more.
VaterAg
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Initially I thought of taking SS at 62, but now that ive had more time to plan, I think we might be right smack in the middle of Roth conversions then and taking SS would push us to higher tax brackets. It's going to take some careful planning .
LMCane
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for the other old guys out there-

I could not get the ID to work on the Social Security Administration page which seems to be a common problem

so you have to print out a bar code and go to a participating US Post Office where they will check your ID and enter it into the system

I did this last friday and miraculously it actually worked- I was able to get into my account yesterday.

shows at age 62 I am on track for $3100 a month

and at age 65: $4300
The Collective
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Stive said:

For those who are older than their spouse



Life goals
Ag CPA
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Ogre09 said:

I won't be eligible until the 2050s, so I'm planning on not getting any SS payouts ever. Pretty sure I'll be means tested out. I'm just hoping they don't come after me for taxes on my Roth, but I'm hedging my bets on even that.


More realistic funding solution is that they will push the retirement age back to make sure most people are dead by the time they are eligible for benefits.
SteveBott
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Another option, the one I expect has the highest probability, eliminate the income cap. That provides up to 75 years of solvency.
Kool
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Ag CPA said:

Ogre09 said:

I won't be eligible until the 2050s, so I'm planning on not getting any SS payouts ever. Pretty sure I'll be means tested out. I'm just hoping they don't come after me for taxes on my Roth, but I'm hedging my bets on even that.


More realistic funding solution is that they will push the retirement age back to make sure most people are dead by the time they are eligible for benefits.

Why not both???
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AgOutsideAustin
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LMCane said:

for the other old guys out there-

I could not get the ID to work on the Social Security Administration page which seems to be a common problem

so you have to print out a bar code and go to a participating US Post Office where they will check your ID and enter it into the system

I did this last friday and miraculously it actually worked- I was able to get into my account yesterday.

shows at age 62 I am on track for $3100 a month

and at age 65: $4300


Nice numbers for you.

App works fine for me. Seeing the income statement broken down all those years I'm surprised at what I feel is not much income over a long working life. Nowhere near Texags levels but I guess it worked out in the end.
Ogre09
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Ag CPA said:

Ogre09 said:

I won't be eligible until the 2050s, so I'm planning on not getting any SS payouts ever. Pretty sure I'll be means tested out. I'm just hoping they don't come after me for taxes on my Roth, but I'm hedging my bets on even that.


More realistic funding solution is that they will push the retirement age back to make sure most people are dead by the time they are eligible for benefits.



As they should. Current SS ages are ridiculously low. They need to adjust upward as life expectancy increases. Start a ramped increase for anyone currently under 50.
M.C. Swag
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one safe place said:

Pacifico said:

752bro4 said:

41? lol. I'm 43, SS is in no way shape or form apart of my retirement calculations despite paying in the max for the better part of my post-grad life.




This fake news has been around since the 1960s.

It amazes me every time someone says they won't get a dime of SS or it won't be around because it will be out of money. We will never cut SS benefits because that would mean those who did would not get reelected. We will deficit spend, just like we do with everything else.

SS is entirely self funded and doesn't add a single penny to the budget. For decades, Social Security actually ran surpluses, meaning it collected more in payroll taxes than it paid out. Those surpluses were invested in Treasury securities, which helped finance other parts of government. Those surpluses are about to run out, but that doesn't mean SS will be defunct. It will just mean a reduction in benefit payout. Unless something truly bizarre happens, everyone should expect at least 70-80% of the payout amount. There is no likely future with 0 payout.
HarleySpoon
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M.C. Swag said:

one safe place said:

Pacifico said:

752bro4 said:

41? lol. I'm 43, SS is in no way shape or form apart of my retirement calculations despite paying in the max for the better part of my post-grad life.




This fake news has been around since the 1960s.

It amazes me every time someone says they won't get a dime of SS or it won't be around because it will be out of money. We will never cut SS benefits because that would mean those who did would not get reelected. We will deficit spend, just like we do with everything else.

SS is entirely self funded and doesn't add a single penny to the budget. For decades, Social Security actually ran surpluses, meaning it collected more in payroll taxes than it paid out. Those surpluses were invested in Treasury securities, which helped finance other parts of government. Those surpluses are about to run out, but that doesn't mean SS will be defunct. It will just mean a reduction in benefit payout. Unless something truly bizarre happens, everyone should expect at least 70-80% of the payout amount. There is no likely future with 0 payout.

Why a reduction in benefit and not a repayment from the general fund back to the social security INSURANCE fund for the amounts the insurance invested for 90 years when there were surpluses?

It is an insurance fund/act which is why it says SSI on your paystub. Insurance funds don't become insolvent just because payouts exceed premiums eventually….thats when they start cashing in the investments they made when there were surpluses. Change the name, pass a new law if it is not an insurance fund/act.
LMCane
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northeastag said:

EliteZags said:

the projected at 70 won't show COLA increase estimate either so it will end up being higher as well

Really? I understand that the amount I collect each month will be higher based on the longer I wait to collect. But the amount that is being shown that I will collect when I'm 70 (on the SS website) hasn't changed since I stopped contributing to the system 3 years ago. It's hard to believe that I will receive a higher amount than what is shown on the site when I finally get there.


that is clearly incorrect

there is a COLA increase all the time due to inflation
topher06
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Agreed. And freeze COLA adjustments entirely for the current recipients as they receive far more than they ever put in, knowing it's a failing system. Need to spread the pain, not just tax young people to pay for entitlements that current retirees voted in for themselves knowing the bleak future for the current workforce.
P.H. Dexippus
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Ogre09 said:

Ag CPA said:

Ogre09 said:

I won't be eligible until the 2050s, so I'm planning on not getting any SS payouts ever. Pretty sure I'll be means tested out. I'm just hoping they don't come after me for taxes on my Roth, but I'm hedging my bets on even that.


More realistic funding solution is that they will push the retirement age back to make sure most people are dead by the time they are eligible for benefits.



As they should. Current SS ages are ridiculously low. They need to adjust upward as life expectancy increases. Start a ramped increase for anyone currently under 50.
just let me opt out. I never want a dime from the system for the 20+ years I've paid in. Just let me invest my money on my own.
 
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