SpaceX IPO for Retail Investors

5,570 Views | 58 Replies | Last: 7 min ago by 2wealfth Man
Ghost of Bisbee
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1:43p, 5/21/26
AG
Who else gonna try?

I'm going to give it a shot through Schwab. I imagine it'll be very difficult, if not impossible, to get an allocation via retail because of the demand.
Schwab issues in lots of 100 shares, so I'm estimating ponying up ~$25K to have a chance.

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GeorgiAg
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3:14p, 5/21/26
AG
SpaceX to the moon!

I'm going to let y'all mess with this one.
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themissinglink
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4:05p, 5/21/26
AG
I think it's an incredibly innovative company, but I have no idea how to model this to justify a $1.75 trillion EV (95x revenue!).

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
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The Pilot
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4:54p, 5/21/26
AG
Gonna try.
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Monywolf
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7:05p, 5/21/26
This is, by far, the largest IPO in history. It's very likely that retail investors will get an allocation.
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chris1515
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7:30p, 5/21/26
AG
If you're invested in Fidelity Contrafund, you already own a piece of SpaceX, I'm not sure what other mutual funds have similar exposure.
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I bleed maroon
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In reply to chris1515 • 7:33p, 5/21/26
AG
chris1515 said:
If you're invested in Fidelity Contrafund, you already own a piece of SpaceX, I'm not sure what other mutual funds have similar exposure.

BPTRX has SpaceX as 33% of its' holdings. TSLA is another 23%. So, while not a pure play, it's relatively concentrated.
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Monywolf
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8:09p, 5/21/26
XOVR has a 20% allocation to Spacex and a large allocation to Alphabet, which owns 7% of Spacex. But just buy Spacex if you want Spacex.
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Holistic Planning
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9:23p, 5/21/26
Sponsor
Barron's is saying it'll be roughly $160 per share. 2.2 trillion value.

13-14 months ago we helped clients get it at 350 billion valuation.
www.holisticplanning.com/intro
Remarkably personal financial advice for a fuller life.
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Diggity
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In reply to Monywolf • 9:16a, 5/22/26
AG
yep...they have also indicated they're planning on ~30% of the IPO being available to retail investors, which is much higher than typical.

Probably lends credence to the "greater fool" theory but there's no denying the irrational exuberance in the current market.
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BTHOtrolls
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3:03p, 5/22/26
AG
SpaceX's greatest asset is Elon Musk and unless he invents immortality beforehand has 20 years of career longevity.

SpaceX vs. Blue Origin become the equivalent of Coke vs Pepsi once Elon is no longer active in the company.

Hard to imagine SpaceX can grow into let alone exceed a 2 trillion valuation within Musk's remaining career.

It's exciting to be alive at same time as Elon and watch how he's been able to move the world in a positives direction, but…

Still doesn't make SpaceX IPO a good investment.
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AW 1880
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In reply to Holistic Planning • 9:15a, 5/23/26
AG
TFTI
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I Am A Critic
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In reply to BTHOtrolls • 10:12a, 5/23/26
BTHOtrolls said:
SpaceX's greatest asset is Elon Musk and unless he invents immortality beforehand has 20 years of career longevity.

SpaceX vs. Blue Origin become the equivalent of Coke vs Pepsi once Elon is no longer active in the company.

Hard to imagine SpaceX can grow into let alone exceed a 2 trillion valuation within Musk's remaining career.

It's exciting to be alive at same time as Elon and watch how he's been able to move the world in a positives direction, but…

Still doesn't make SpaceX IPO a good investment.

Underestimate Musk at your own peril.
Username checks out.
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AustinAg2K
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In reply to BTHOtrolls • 10:30a, 5/23/26
BTHOtrolls said:
SpaceX's greatest asset is Elon Musk and unless he invents immortality beforehand has 20 years of career longevity.

SpaceX vs. Blue Origin become the equivalent of Coke vs Pepsi once Elon is no longer active in the company.

Hard to imagine SpaceX can grow into let alone exceed a 2 trillion valuation within Musk's remaining career.

It's exciting to be alive at same time as Elon and watch how he's been able to move the world in a positives direction, but…

Still doesn't make SpaceX IPO a good investment.

I'm not sure how you can say SpaceX vs Blue Origin is Coke vs Pepsi. In the history of the company, Blue Origin has had 38 successful flights. SpaceX does that about every other month. There are competitors coming, but as of right now, SpaceX pretty much has a monopoly, and it's a difficult market to break into.
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Kenneth_2003
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In reply to BTHOtrolls • 12:32p, 5/23/26
AG
BTHOtrolls said:
SpaceX's greatest asset is Elon Musk and unless he invents immortality beforehand has 20 years of career longevity.

SpaceX vs. Blue Origin become the equivalent of Coke vs Pepsi once Elon is no longer active in the company.

Hard to imagine SpaceX can grow into let alone exceed a 2 trillion valuation within Musk's remaining career.

It's exciting to be alive at same time as Elon and watch how he's been able to move the world in a positives direction, but…

Still doesn't make SpaceX IPO a good investment.

If you want an example of what happens to SpaceX when Elon is gone... And baring something tragic that should be a while, I'd look at Apple following Job's death.

Blue Origin was years behind schedule getting the BE4 engines to ULA for Vulcan (100% expended) , and their most recent New Glenn (partially reusable) launch failed to get the customers cargo to orbit. At BEST Blue Origin is where SpaceX was in 2015... 2015 marked the first successful landing, but they already had a very high launch cadence due to rapid and affordable manufacturing.

When was SpaceX last failure to reach orbit? July 12, 2024... Second stage developed an O2 leak that resulted in engine failure during the 2nd burn to circularize the orbit resulting in an off nominal orbital insertion and loss of the Starlink Cargo (they were deployed but could not achieve sufficient altitude on part of the orbit to overcome atmospheric drag and subsequently deorbited.
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AggiEE
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1:06p, 5/23/26
No thanks

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jamey
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1:33p, 5/23/26
AG
Won't it be some uncomfortably large chunk of S&P
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AggieInHouston
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In reply to jamey • 3:36p, 5/23/26
AG
jamey said:
Won't it be some uncomfortably large chunk of S&P

Not at first. Only publicly traded shares count towards market weighting.
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Fightin_Aggie
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4:07p, 5/23/26
AG
Is there a required hold period for the ipo purchase?
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OldArmyCT
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In reply to Fightin_Aggie • 10:53p, 5/23/26
AG
Depends on the broker usually.
And to the guy worried about the stock because Elon will age out in 20 or so years, WTF? That's almost the definition of buy and hold.
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to BTHOtrolls • 7:48a, 5/24/26
AG
BTHOtrolls said:
SpaceX's greatest asset is Elon Musk and unless he invents immortality beforehand has 20 years of career longevity.

SpaceX vs. Blue Origin become the equivalent of Coke vs Pepsi once Elon is no longer active in the company.

Hard to imagine SpaceX can grow into let alone exceed a 2 trillion valuation within Musk's remaining career.

It's exciting to be alive at same time as Elon and watch how he's been able to move the world in a positives direction, but…

Still doesn't make SpaceX IPO a good investment.


Musk wasn't the CEO of Tesla 20 years ago and Tesla had $0 in revenue 20 years ago. Now they have $1.6T market cap and have done things that 20 years ago were unthinkable and are poised to do some other amazing stuff with Optimus Prime and licensing FSD to legacy manufacturers who are years behind Tesla in developing self driving systems.

20 years is an eternity right now. I'll be shocked if SpaceX doesn't grow into that market cap in the next decade.
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techno-ag
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In reply to BTHOtrolls • 8:12a, 5/24/26
AG
BTHOtrolls said:
SpaceX's greatest asset is Elon Musk and unless he invents immortality beforehand has 20 years of career longevity.

SpaceX vs. Blue Origin become the equivalent of Coke vs Pepsi once Elon is no longer active in the company.

Hard to imagine SpaceX can grow into let alone exceed a 2 trillion valuation within Musk's remaining career.

It's exciting to be alive at same time as Elon and watch how he's been able to move the world in a positives direction, but…

Still doesn't make SpaceX IPO a good investment.
Username checks out LOL.
The left cannot kill the Spirit of Charlie Kirk.
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jh0400
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In reply to themissinglink • 10:13a, 5/24/26
AG
themissinglink said:
I think it's an incredibly innovative company, but I have no idea how to model this to justify a $1.75 trillion EV (95x revenue!).

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm


They are getting there with constrained demand. $75B in primary issuance is a huge number (interesting to see what this does to OpenAI and Anthropic with regard to available capital for their offerings), but at the same time it's only around 3-4% of the total outstanding shares. Good for the company for maximizing proceeds, but I don't see any way it sustains that value once the lockup expires.
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bigtruckguy3500
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12:12p, 5/24/26
I don't really do IPOs. But in the past I have noticed that really big, highly hyped, IPOs tend to open really strong. Usually the institutional investors get their shares first, then the average person gets in on the hype. The stock goes up. Then slowly it tends to downtrend over the course of a few months to a year. Then it stabilizes and starts to accurately reflect the fundamentals of the company.

I don't have the time to really do adequate research or watch my portfolio multiple times a day to sell/buy at the right time, so I tend to stay away from stuff with potential volatility. I'm looking at a 5-10+ year buy and hold strategy on most things.
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BTHOtrolls
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In reply to techno-ag • 10:58a, 5/25/26
AG

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Ag CPA
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11:44a, 5/25/26
AG
I was a lot more excited about this IPO until they tossed xAI in.
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I bleed maroon
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In reply to Ag CPA • 11:48a, 5/25/26
AG
Ag CPA said:
I was a lot more excited about this IPO until they tossed xAI in.

Agree. A pure play was more valuable for SpaceX, in my opinion. The xAI was essentially a bail-out of Elon for his overpaying for Twitter (also just my opinion). Unbundled, xAI would have likely been worth significantly less than book value, causing Elon to take a big writedown of the value of his shares. This action muddied the waters a bit, and is almost all to benefit Elon - it may work out in the end, but a truly independent board probably never would have pursued such an unrelated acquisition.
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MaroonStain
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In reply to chris1515 • 5:45p, 5/25/26
AG
chris1515 said:
If you're invested in Fidelity Contrafund, you already own a piece of SpaceX, I'm not sure what other mutual funds have similar exposure.


4.3% of fund per Grok
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TexAgs91
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In reply to I bleed maroon • 1:57p, 5/27/26
AG
I bleed maroon said:
Ag CPA said:
I was a lot more excited about this IPO until they tossed xAI in.

Agree. A pure play was more valuable for SpaceX, in my opinion. The xAI was essentially a bail-out of Elon for his overpaying for Twitter (also just my opinion). Unbundled, xAI would have likely been worth significantly less than book value, causing Elon to take a big writedown of the value of his shares. This action muddied the waters a bit, and is almost all to benefit Elon - it may work out in the end, but a truly independent board probably never would have pursued such an unrelated acquisition.

The xAI merger makes sense because the largest project SpaceX is about to take on is Terafab and orbital data centers for AI which will be launched using SpaceX's reusable rockets.
No, I don't care what CNN or Miss NOW said this time
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hph6203
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In reply to I bleed maroon • 4:48p, 5/27/26
AG
I bleed maroon said:
Ag CPA said:
I was a lot more excited about this IPO until they tossed xAI in.

Agree. A pure play was more valuable for SpaceX, in my opinion. The xAI was essentially a bail-out of Elon for his overpaying for Twitter (also just my opinion). Unbundled, xAI would have likely been worth significantly less than book value, causing Elon to take a big writedown of the value of his shares. This action muddied the waters a bit, and is almost all to benefit Elon - it may work out in the end, but a truly independent board probably never would have pursued such an unrelated acquisition.
Is a telecom business unrelated? Biggest sources of revenue currently are Starlink and xAI leases. The launch business is a nothingburger. Will never be a major driver of profit. The profit is in space based services, which is what xAI is going to become.

That said the $1.75T price tag is inflated. The near term future for SpacexAI is terrestrial data centers and Starlink/Starlink Mobile and that's not going to justify at $2T price tag any time soon. They have to get to orbital data centers, which I suspect will take at least until the end of the decade for them to actually be routinely launching capacity into orbit.


My hope is it pops at IPO, levels out within a year, and Tesla/SpaceX merge for orbital compute/automated construction tasks when the actual market value of each company reflects the appropriate ratio. No way in hell is SpaceX more valuable than Tesla in reality right now.
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BigPete3281
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4:55p, 5/27/26
It seems to me, it would make the most sense that data centers be put in space. So this should be THE stock to have, right?
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Dr. Doctor
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6:10p, 5/27/26
AG
The idea of data centers in space is dumb. Like really dumb.

One of the main issues is heat rejection aka keeping it cool.

Heat transfer in space is order of magnitude harder in space than earth. And it's hard on earth.
~egon
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jh0400
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In reply to Dr. Doctor • 7:09p, 5/27/26
AG
I thought the idea of data centers in space was due to the amount of readily available cold air for cooling.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to jh0400 • 7:55p, 5/27/26
AG
jh0400 said:
space

air

Pick one.
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I bleed maroon
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In reply to jh0400 • 7:55p, 5/27/26
AG
There's no air up there!

I have no idea about the how, but some smart people believe it's possible, so who knows…
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