Thank you

Ducks4brkfast said:

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Hugely undecided on investing or not at this valuation, however I just can't imagine a scenario where there won't be better buying opportunities in the weeks+ after the IPO.

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Agree but my wife wants to buy some immediately. With all the hype, cult of Musk, low float, and Nasdaq indexing; she thinks the price will turn stupid high. She may be right, we will buy with our dumb money (sell some crypto to buy SpaceX).

I bleed maroon said:

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Kenneth_2003 said:

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Keep in mind... The indexes have to buy in immediately, or nearly so, since the market cap puts them into the rare category for immediate indexing. Or that's my understand...

Also and equally important, what is the lock out period for insiders and those whose earlier private placements are converting to common? I think they could start a flood on the market when they're free to start realizing some (well earned) gains.

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From what I read, both of these are no longer accurate. The S&P, at least, has a formula that considers "free float", which reduces the otherwise 2.4% SPCX allocation down to around 0.2-0.5%, so it won't be as rapid a scale-up as you (and I) initially thought.

Also, I read that the seasoning / waiting period that WAS going to be significantly accelerated is no longer going to be waived (but I may have read that here, so take this with a grain of salt).

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My understanding is the S&P isn't happening anytime soon. But I believe inclusion in Nasdaq will be very fast with initial weight at capitalization x float percentage x 3. Once we get to December, when 55% is total float, the Nasdaq will weight it at just the capitalization.

Ag CPA said:

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I was a lot more excited about this IPO until they tossed xAI in.

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That makes it a much better deal. xAI is the backbone of X now. That's why X is currently one of the most trusted go-to sources for accurate, real-time news. GROK fact checking has pretty much replaced community notes. X has like 600 million monthly users. The days of free AI is coming to an end and I expect xAI to be one of the winners.

Like Ellison said recently... the leading large language models, ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, Llama, have become commodities. The real value lies in integrating these models with proprietary data, positioning companies with exclusive datasets.

They are going to use a rolling lockup expiration instead of the standard 180 day cliff, largely due to the extremely low percentage of float to outstanding. This could also make for an interesting dynamic in the options market as put writers need to be able to access shares to sell short, and betting against this valuation seems to be a popular trade idea that could become very crowded quickly.

SPACEX IPO OVER-SUBSCRIBED AHEAD OF RECORD $75B LISTING

SpaceX has already received orders exceeding available shares in its $75B IPO, suggesting strong demand shortly after marketing began. The offering, priced at $135 per share, could value the company at about $1.8T. Trading…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) June 5, 2026

Morgan Stanley predicting SpaceX revenue to hit $3.4T by 2040. Got damn.

jh0400 said:

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They are going to use a rolling lockup expiration instead of the standard 180 day cliff, largely due to the extremely low percentage of float to outstanding. This could also make for an interesting dynamic in the options market as put writers need to be able to access shares to sell short, and betting against this valuation seems to be a popular trade idea that could become very crowded quickly.

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I know someone who bought a year or so ago and they have a 180 day lockup, not rolling, to my knowledge. Assume this only applies to some?

Their lock up is almost certainly a rolling release. They can't fully exit their position, but they can sell some after Q2 earnings.

SpaceX’s IPO filing has reveals a staggered insider share lock-up structure instead of one giant unlock all at once. There's no typical 6-month lockup.

Here’s the timeline:
• After Q2 2026 earnings: up to 20% of eligible insider shares unlock
• If the stock trades 30%+ above… pic.twitter.com/OHR0aCDvgU

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) May 20, 2026