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116% increase on lumber

7,530 Views | 40 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by OverR
Three Twenties and A Ten
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5:35p, 3/8/22
AG
Talking with a decent sized custom home builder in Montgomery county (Willis, Conroe, Montgomery, The Woodlands) and he said their Pricing Manager told them today their lumber costs had increased 116% over the last 90 days!! This doesn't even take into account the unprecedented increases in 2020/2021, which never really decreased. This builder focuses on multi-million dollar custom homes and he said that even some of their clients are having to rethink size, upgrades, etc. bc of the massive swing in cost.

Still mind blowing what the last 2 years has done to our global economy and how it is eroding wealth at all levels!!

*I believe this was a cumulative increase on all residential construction lumber
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mazag08
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In reply to Three Twenties and A Ten • 5:44p, 3/8/22
AG
What's happened to our economy was no accident. You don't fail this spectacularly unless your purpose is to reset the world in a new image.
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Three Twenties and A Ten
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In reply to mazag08 • 6:06p, 3/8/22
AG
mazag08 said:
What's happened to our economy was no accident. You don't fail this spectacularly unless your purpose is to reset the world in a new image.
100% agreed!! The last 2yrs were merely Phase 1 of the operation. Russia-Ukraine is beginning of Phase 2.

I fully believe it will continue until either we look something akin to the Venezuela of today (2 class system -- poor and elites) or there is a true uprising/revolt against our government and/or a separation of the states. Even then, I'm not fully convinced it can be stopped, only subdued.
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JP76
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6:27p, 3/8/22
I framed a barndominimum back in mid sept and studs were $2.86 then and 4x8 osb was around $19. Same studs are now $7.75 and osb is $50



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TikkaShooter
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6:57p, 3/8/22
Lol. Who let the flat earth whole world resetters in here
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Three Twenties and A Ten
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In reply to TikkaShooter • 7:10p, 3/8/22
AG
TikkaShooter said:
Lol. Who let the flat earth whole world resetters in here


I certainly don't claim to be the smartest in the room (and I know this isn't the Politics board), but am happy to consider alternative theories/viewpoints on why we're not headed the direction described.
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Three Twenties and A Ten
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In reply to JP76 • 7:20p, 3/8/22
AG
JP76 said:
I framed a barndominimum back in mid sept and studs were $2.86 then and 4x8 osb was around $19. Same studs are now $7.75 and osb is $50


~270% increase on both items in 6 months...mind blowing!!
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Jason_Roofer
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11:20p, 3/8/22
We've had several roofing projects in areas that are prone to bad weather. It provides an Avenue to see costs associated with roof builds that are no more than two years apart and are exactly the same materials. We've seen currently that the same roof 2 years ago is 75% more expensive to do today, on average. Today, after conversations with our vendors, those prices are going up again. Due to our industry being heavily dependent on petroleum, were seeing another 20-25% increase. We had a similar situation in 2008. We're about to double the pricing again. Fortunately, we're very heavily geared toward insurance restoration, so that 25,000 dollar roof being 50,000 now isn't a big deal since homeowners still pay the same. However, it won't be long until those costs are passed on to the consumer with their premiums. The carriers' pricing lists and software cannot keep up with labor and materials increases.

There is currently no end in sight for pricing increases.
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TikkaShooter
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In reply to Three Twenties and A Ten • 5:35a, 3/9/22
Quote:
happy to consider alternative theories/viewpoints on why we're not headed the direction described

Was the 2001-2008 stretch of world conflict and financial doom a failed attempt by the world elites to "hit the reset button"? You know how it all went down...A terrorist attack on US soil (to rob us of personal freedoms, of course), drag the US into a long, unending war (to drain the US military of resources, of course) and then a home grown financial crisis (the final piece of the reset puzzle, of course!).

Sure looks familiar to right now, right? This is just another attempt after that one failed, right? A change in US political parties (facilitated by a fake election, of course), followed by a world wide pandemic (created in a lab to show the world who's in charge and remove personal freedoms, of course), and then a geopolitical war (the final piece of the reset puzzle, of course!)

All to say....I think its cute when people pick a time of conflict and unrest and call it the end of times/great reset. There have been periods of conflict and unrest and economic instability in every darn decade since I've been alive. And in every darn decade before then.

But yeah, sure. This is the one. This is the reset.

:|
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NoahAg
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In reply to TikkaShooter • 6:14a, 3/9/22
So obtuse.
Let's go, Brandon!
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Sea Speed
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In reply to NoahAg • 7:39a, 3/9/22
AG
Ho hum just a bunch of random bad things happening. No big deal. The reactions by the politicians, banks, other powerful entities definitely don't matter at all.
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Aggie71013
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In reply to Jason_Roofer • 7:43a, 3/9/22
AG
This is depressing.
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TikkaShooter
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In reply to Sea Speed • 7:44a, 3/9/22
Ho hum ignore history bc this is THE one bc Tucker Carlson told me so. Ho hum.
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Sea Speed
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In reply to TikkaShooter • 7:49a, 3/9/22
AG
Yes, when someone challenges your viewpoint accuse them of getting their POV from a talking head. That will definitely show them how correct you are and the error of their ways.
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TikkaShooter
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In reply to Sea Speed • 7:56a, 3/9/22
Im open to hearing how 2019-current is different than 2001-2008 or any other period of disturbance in recent history. And why now is "The Reset".
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Sea Speed
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In reply to TikkaShooter • 8:04a, 3/9/22
AG
Personally I do not think there is one single event that is a switch like event that is "the reset", the world isn't a Nintendo. Rather, all of the events happening, in the period you are stuck on and now, are used to restle more control from and exert more power over the people. If you are happy to cede control of your existence to the government thsts on you, but q whole lot of us don't want to come along for that ride.
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TikkaShooter
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In reply to Sea Speed • 8:07a, 3/9/22
Quote:
all of the events happening, in the period you are stuck on and now, are used to restle more control from and exert more power over the people


I'm going to ask, rather than assume, but does the above quoted portion of your response mean that you believe the events in 2001 were part of a world/US elitist plan to exert control? That Sept 11 was "part of the plan"?
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Sea Speed
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In reply to TikkaShooter • 8:10a, 3/9/22
AG
Did you not read my initial post or did you not comprehend it? The one where I talked about reactions by politicians and others.
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TikkaShooter
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In reply to Sea Speed • 8:13a, 3/9/22
I read it.

Reaction comes from action. Action that, as it appears, many believe are controlled. In order to control the reaction.

So are you a 9/11 truther or will you avoid that question a second time?
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Sea Speed
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In reply to TikkaShooter • 8:15a, 3/9/22
AG
It is ridiculous that I even need to answer that question. No I dont think it was a planned attack. What on God's green earth would make you even think that besides trying to accuse someone you disagree with as a conspiracy theorist, which is par for the course these days.

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TikkaShooter
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In reply to Sea Speed • 8:17a, 3/9/22
Glad we got that out of the way. We can be friends now
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texAZtea
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12:15p, 3/9/22
AG
/real estate
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Diggity
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1:22p, 3/9/22
AG
what the **** happened here? I read something about a $50K roofing bill and my head exploded
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evestor1
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In reply to Diggity • 1:57p, 3/9/22
He was talking about an insurance replacement for 50k
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RAB87
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In reply to TikkaShooter • 10:59p, 3/9/22
AG
TikkaShooter said:
Lol. Who let the flat earth whole world resetters in here
Somewhere Joe Biden is mumbling incoherently and laughing at you.
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AndesAg92
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9:40p, 3/11/22
AG
Working on equity placement of a MF development. We've been plugging in $150-$155 PSF hard cost very conservatively in our model based on market feedback (garden deal) from the main merchant builders and this deal they're at $200 which is insane. The norm was $125 not long ago.
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Diggity
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11:30p, 3/11/22
AG
The numbers I'm seeing for medical office buildouts are ridiculous as well.
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mazag08
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In reply to AndesAg92 • 5:31a, 3/13/22
AG
AndesAg92 said:
Working on equity placement of a MF development. We've been plugging in $150-$155 PSF hard cost very conservatively in our model based on market feedback (garden deal) from the main merchant builders and this deal they're at $200 which is insane. The norm was $125 not long ago.


Still better than the resale market.

I'm seeing 200+ per foot for a lot of value add class B deals.

As expensive as it is, development is still the quickest route to the lowest basis. There might be higher stabilized yield in value add returns, but likely not by much. We're pretty much solving to 5.25% YOC which makes me cringe every time.
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shhopkins
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In reply to Diggity • 8:58a, 3/13/22
AG
Diggity said:
The numbers I'm seeing for medical office buildouts are ridiculous as well.


$150+ ???
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Red Pear Luke
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6:57p, 3/14/22
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AG
Spent $250 on lumber alone for building a new work bench for the garage. 2 x 3/4 inch oak plywood, 8 2x4s and 3 2x6s.
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AgProgrammer
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9:52p, 3/14/22
AG
Capitalism, baby! As long as demand keeps increasing and supply is tight, prices will continue to rise unchecked.
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JP76
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1:18p, 3/15/22
Bought 14 boards this morning for a job
1x4,1x6 hardiplank and 2 sheets of smart siding

Total was $449
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ktownag08
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11:09p, 3/16/22
AG
If there's any hope, lumber futures fell hard today!
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Three Twenties and A Ten
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In reply to ktownag08 • 12:11a, 3/17/22
AG
ktownag08 said:
If there's any hope, lumber futures fell hard today!


Any knowledge as to why? Curious if tied to the big drop in oil.
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ktownag08
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7:55a, 3/17/22
AG
Not really. Building a custom house soon though so been keeping tabs on.
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