Sunday Morning Thoughts - Reaching LOCK status and closing in on a protected seed

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ColleyvilleAg06
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11:45p, 2/8/25
AG
Depending on your definition for a lock you could have made this statement a week ago. My definition is - you can lose every game and still 100% be in the tournament. That is the case here. This resume is strong enough to withstand losing all of the remaining 8 games.

6 quad 1A wins, 9 quad 1 wins. Those won't go away. LOCK.

I will still do a bubble watch as we approach March, but I'll primarily support adding in tidbits into Bobinators seed watch posts.

My thoughts on how many wins are required for each seed line (+/- 1 seed line based on everyone else)

8-0 = #1 overall seed
7-1 = 1 seed
6-2 = 2 seed
5-3 = 3 seed
4-4 = 4 seed
3-5 = 5 seed
2-6 = 7 seed
1-7 = 9 seed
0-8 = 10 seed

With Auburn and Duke both losing today I am not sure anyone is truly "uncatchable", some we will just need more help than others

Quick ranking of top 5 seed lines as of Saturday evening:

1 seeds
1- Auburn (yes still- but the margin shrinks)
2- Alabama
3- Duke
4- Florida

2 seeds
5- Tennessee
6- Texas A&M - the top 5 profiles are still clearly better than A&M imo. I give the edge to A&M over Purdue based on H2H and also over Houston based on their lack of quality wins (sub .500 vs quad 1).
7- Purdue
8-Houston

3 seeds
9- St. John's
10- Iowa State
11- Arizona
12- Wisconsin

4 Seeds
13- Texas Tech
14- Kansas
15- Michigan State
16- Marquette

5 Seeds
17- Kentucky
18- Ole Miss
19 - Michigan
20- UCLA
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ColleyvilleAg06
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6:53a, 2/9/25
AG
The full numbers are in and just to reiterate…they barely moved an inch on Saturday. Saturday was still a great day to solidify the positioning as a 2 seed, bring a 1 seed into the conversation and stack another quad 1A win to the profile… but everyone around us in all the computer numbers added good wins too, sometimes there will be days like this….

Resume #s are solidly a 2 seed …
KPI 6….6
SOR 8…..7
WAB 6…7 (Florida passed us)

Predictive metrics with a slight improvement but still suggest a 4 seed (14th best profile)

BPI 15….15
Kenpom 15…..14
Torvik 20….17

Putting these 2 together and looking at no other part of the profile would push Purdue and Houston higher than A&M but St. John's has worse predictive than we do and no other team has as good of a combo in both sets.

As suggested in the OP, things that also matter to the committee are what pushed us ahead of Purdue and Houston (non conf resume, wins on a neutral court, quad 1A and quad 1 wins, head to head, non conf sos, etc)
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ColleyvilleAg06
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7:03a, 2/9/25
AG
By the way- don't expect these numbers to change much even if we have another 2-0 week coming up. They are pretty much baked at this point unless unexpected events happen. A 2 seed team SHOULD beat the (by the metrics) 36th (Georgia) any 43rd best (Arkansas) team when playing at home and should do so comfortably.


Don't expect a ton of movement in these either way unless we either start losing games we shouldn't or win a game that is a surprise (Auburn, @Florida)
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94chem
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 7:28a, 2/9/25
ColleyvilleAg06 said:
By the way- don't expect these numbers to change much even if we have another 2-0 week coming up. They are pretty much baked at this point unless unexpected events happen. A 2 seed team SHOULD beat the (by the metrics) 36th (Georgia) any 43rd best (Arkansas) team when playing at home and should do so comfortably.


Don't expect a ton of movement in these either way unless we either start losing games we shouldn't or win a game that is a surprise (Auburn, @Florida)


There's a reason why Duke has lost more times as a #1 seed than any other team.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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Zigzig
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7:59a, 2/9/25
Love your work Colleyville, thx!. How refreshing to not be on bubble watch like we have been the past few years.
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caleblyn
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8:09a, 2/9/25
No Memphis?
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Michael Cera Palin
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8:19a, 2/9/25
AG
What are people referring to as Quad 1A wins vs just a standard Quad 1? This is the first year I've seen people mention it and a quick internet search didn't pull anything up
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caleblyn
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8:31a, 2/9/25
Basically the upper half of Q1
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halfastros81
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8:32a, 2/9/25
AG
Where does Mizzou fall in your current seeding? They have a reasonably favorable schedule down the stretch and if they could get Bama at home I feel like they'd be in the running for a 4 seed.
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PJYoung
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In reply to Michael Cera Palin • 8:35a, 2/9/25
AG
Michael Cera Palin said:
What are people referring to as Quad 1A wins vs just a standard Quad 1? This is the first year I've seen people mention it and a quick internet search didn't pull anything up



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PJYoung
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8:36a, 2/9/25
AG
The top is our quad 1A record, bottom is the requirements for regular quad 1.

1A is just taking the top half of quad 1 requirements.
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SeattleAg05
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8:38a, 2/9/25
AG
Love it Colley!! Thanks as usual.

This team is a blast to watch.
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Michael Cera Palin
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In reply to PJYoung • 8:39a, 2/9/25
AG
Got it, thanks!

This quad business is funny because when the NET came out they all swore each win in a quadrant was treated equally, but I guess now some Quad 1s are more equal than others…anyway, just glad the Ags are crushing it.
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halfastros81
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In reply to PJYoung • 8:42a, 2/9/25
AG
Is it based strictly on opponents current ranking or ranking when the game was played ? I ask because of Creighton . I suspect it's the former .
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bobinator
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In reply to Michael Cera Palin • 8:46a, 2/9/25
AG
At no point did they swear this. And in fact the tendency for people to do so is why a lot of bracketology nerds like me hate it to begin with,

There's obviously a difference between beating the #1 team and the #75 team, and practically no difference between beating the #75 team and the #76 team.
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bobinator
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In reply to halfastros81 • 8:48a, 2/9/25
AG
Ranking now. College basketball has been better about this than football, but ranking at the time you played someone doesn't mean anything if it's radically different at the end of the season.
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bobinator
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 8:52a, 2/9/25
AG
Absolutely unprecedented stuff could be coming in a month.

In the updated NET WAB, the top five teams are all SEC teams.

1 - Auburn
2 - Alabama
3 - Tennessee
4 - Florida
5 - A&M

If Duke or Houston stumble a couple more times could we really see an SEC sweep of the 1 seeds?
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halfastros81
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In reply to bobinator • 8:55a, 2/9/25
AG
So if Creighton goes on a tear it could reappear as a Quad 1a W or if say Ole Miss went into a slump it could disappear .


The other thing that feels funny about it to me is if a one pt loss to Texas is a Q1a loss then a 20 pt win should also be a q1a win but I get the criteria of home vs away and that winning margin doesn't matter.
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bobinator
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In reply to halfastros81 • 8:56a, 2/9/25
AG
Correct on Creighton. Why Rutgers going on a heater would be nice too.
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PJYoung
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In reply to bobinator • 9:20a, 2/9/25
AG
bobinator said:
Absolutely unprecedented stuff could be coming in a month.

In the updated NET WAB, the top five teams are all SEC teams.

1 - Auburn
2 - Alabama
3 - Tennessee
4 - Florida
5 - A&M

If Duke or Houston stumble a couple more times could we really see an SEC sweep of the 1 seeds?


SE16 talked about this yesterday. That group of 5 teams play each other enough that their resumes will only continue to improve.

I would think the committee would do everything possible to throw a non SEC 4th team in there at #1, damn the #s.
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bobinator
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In reply to PJYoung • 9:21a, 2/9/25
AG
Yeah I think the numbers have to be absolutely overwhelming for it to happen.
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PJYoung
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In reply to halfastros81 • 9:22a, 2/9/25
AG
halfastros81 said:
So if Creighton goes on a tear it could reappear as a Quad 1a W or if say Ole Miss went into a slump it could disappear .


The other thing that feels funny about it to me is if a one pt loss to Texas is a Q1a loss then a 20 pt win should also be a q1a win but I get the criteria of home vs away and that winning margin doesn't matter.


Blowout wins absolutely help other #s tho, just like close wins at home against bad teams can hurt you.
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ColleyvilleAg06
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In reply to caleblyn • 10:29a, 2/9/25
AG
caleblyn said:
No Memphis?


Memphis would be in the mix to be my top 6 seed. Their metrics are just so atrocious, lack the top end elite wins and 2 quad 3 losses.
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ColleyvilleAg06
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In reply to Michael Cera Palin • 10:42a, 2/9/25
AG
Michael Cera Palin said:
What are people referring to as Quad 1A wins vs just a standard Quad 1? This is the first year I've seen people mention it and a quick internet search didn't pull anything up


Quad 1 is (vs. net rankings
Home vs top 30
Neutral vs top 50
Away vs top 75

Quad 1A is vs. top 15, top 25, top 40 respectfully.
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ColleyvilleAg06
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In reply to halfastros81 • 10:49a, 2/9/25
AG
halfastros81 said:
Where does Mizzou fall in your current seeding? They have a reasonably favorable schedule down the stretch and if they could get Bama at home I feel like they'd be in the running for a 4 seed.


Missouri is on the back end of the 6 seed line. Yes they have a favorable schedule but that may actually work against them a bit in terms of moving up too far.
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ColleyvilleAg06
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In reply to halfastros81 • 10:51a, 2/9/25
AG
halfastros81 said:
Is it based strictly on opponents current ranking or ranking when the game was played ? I ask because of Creighton . I suspect it's the former .


It is a moving target and will be based on the ranking on selection Sunday (or realistically when they lock in their brackets on Wednesday and don't bother printing new team sheets)
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ColleyvilleAg06
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In reply to bobinator • 10:58a, 2/9/25
AG
bobinator said:
Absolutely unprecedented stuff could be coming in a month.

In the updated NET WAB, the top five teams are all SEC teams.

1 - Auburn
2 - Alabama
3 - Tennessee
4 - Florida
5 - A&M

If Duke or Houston stumble a couple more times could we really see an SEC sweep of the 1 seeds?


I know the committee will swear up and down that conference affiliation doesn't matter but I don't see any scenario where the sec gets all 4 #1 seeds.

And I think they will do anything possible to talk their way into only handing out 2. So unless Alabama or Auburn stumble we have a very tough hill to climb.
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BQ_90
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11:00a, 2/9/25
AG
Yea it'll be inserting to de how the committee handles the sec, I can see one or two brackets loaded up to knock out as many sec teams as possible
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bobinator
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In reply to BQ_90 • 11:08a, 2/9/25
AG
There's some bracketing principles that should keep them from loading them up too much. They also can't just load most of the SEC into two brackets or they'll end up loading the others with Big Ten and Big 12 teams.

We're talking about the committees problems with the high end SEC teams but the harder challenge is actually going to be slotting all the Big Ten and Big 12 teams into the middle seeds.
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AggiesinNC
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11:41a, 2/9/25
AG
I don't think a 1 seed is in play without Alabama or Auburn stumbling bad.

Finish at least 5-3 and get a 2/3 seed (really not much of a difference). Five games most likely to win: Georgia, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, @LSU, and then ???? (@Miss State or Tennessee).
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TjgtAg08
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In reply to AggiesinNC • 12:10p, 2/9/25
AG
AggiesinNC said:
I don't think a 1 seed is in play without Alabama or Auburn stumbling bad.

Finish at least 5-3 and get a 2/3 seed (really not much of a difference). Five games most likely to win: Georgia, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, @LSU, and then ???? (@Miss State or Tennessee).


We would need some help, but it's not crazy. Bama and Auburn play each other twice, so if one team sweeps the other, that's 3 conference losses for that team right there. And we play Auburn at home, so we have a chance to gain a tiny bit of ground on them by beating them.

Realistically though, it's probably UT/UF/A&M competing for a 1 seed, as I do agree that Auburn and Bama probably lock 2 of them up unless something crazy happens.

We play both UT and UF to finish, so you could argue we "control our own destiny" as it pertains to those two teams - beat them both and we would be in/near the drivers seat for a 1-seed.

Not likely, just considering how good they both are and who else we have to play, but I would say we have a large bit of control over whether we get a 1-seed or not. Not complete control, but a large portion of it.
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ColleyvilleAg06
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In reply to TjgtAg08 • 12:14p, 2/9/25
AG
TjgtAg08 said:
AggiesinNC said:
I don't think a 1 seed is in play without Alabama or Auburn stumbling bad.

Finish at least 5-3 and get a 2/3 seed (really not much of a difference). Five games most likely to win: Georgia, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, @LSU, and then ???? (@Miss State or Tennessee).


We would need some help, but it's not crazy. Bama and Auburn play each other twice, so if one team sweeps the other, that's 3 conference losses for that team right there. And we play Auburn at home, so we have a chance to gain a tiny bit of ground on them by beating them.

Realistically though, it's probably UT/UF/A&M competing for a 1 seed, as I do agree that Auburn and Bama probably lock 2 of them up unless something crazy happens.

We play both UT and UF to finish, so you could argue we "control our own destiny" as it pertains to those two teams - beat them both and we would be in/near the drivers seat for a 1-seed.

Not likely, just considering how good they both are and who else we have to play, but I would say we have a large bit of control over whether we get a 1-seed or not. Not complete control, but a large portion of it.



If we win out we will 100% be a 1 seed no matter what. And likely will be if we only lose 1 more, depending on how Duke, Houston, etc fare.
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NyAggie
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 12:39p, 2/9/25
AG
ColleyvilleAg06 said:
TjgtAg08 said:
AggiesinNC said:
I don't think a 1 seed is in play without Alabama or Auburn stumbling bad.

Finish at least 5-3 and get a 2/3 seed (really not much of a difference). Five games most likely to win: Georgia, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, @LSU, and then ???? (@Miss State or Tennessee).


We would need some help, but it's not crazy. Bama and Auburn play each other twice, so if one team sweeps the other, that's 3 conference losses for that team right there. And we play Auburn at home, so we have a chance to gain a tiny bit of ground on them by beating them.

Realistically though, it's probably UT/UF/A&M competing for a 1 seed, as I do agree that Auburn and Bama probably lock 2 of them up unless something crazy happens.

We play both UT and UF to finish, so you could argue we "control our own destiny" as it pertains to those two teams - beat them both and we would be in/near the drivers seat for a 1-seed.

Not likely, just considering how good they both are and who else we have to play, but I would say we have a large bit of control over whether we get a 1-seed or not. Not complete control, but a large portion of it.



If we win out we will 100% be a 1 seed no matter what. And likely will be if we only lose 1 more, depending on how Duke, Houston, etc fare.


Yeah, it's not crazy to think we can play our way into a 1 seed.

Heck, had we beaten UCF and tu on the road we'd probably already be a 1 seed
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Complete Idiot
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1:19p, 2/9/25
The best seeding A&M basketball has ever received is a 3 seed.
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caleblyn
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 2:08p, 2/9/25
ColleyvilleAg06 said:
caleblyn said:
No Memphis?


Memphis would be in the mix to be my top 6 seed. Their metrics are just so atrocious, lack the top end elite wins and 2 quad 3 losses.


The positive and the problem for Memphis. They are a good team. They had a good non-con schedule and won. They have a very high SOS and are presently #7. The problem…none of their remaining games will help their RPI. They are projected to be around 28 for SOS. Even if they win-out, they may not move up due to bad games left. They could be a two-seed if they win out or maybe one loss. However, two or threes losses could drop them to the 5ish seed. As I type this, they are tied with Temple at half.
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