Another week, another format change. Trying to make this as user-friendly as possible. Going to put less raw data on here so this is maybe easier to read and digest. Also added location preferences for those interested in how that's going to shake out.

The whole reason I wanted to starting this as a projection-based seed watch is so that people can see that at this point of the season single game results don't make huge swings. If you've been following this each week, you know that a 2 seed was already unlikely unless we really outplayed the projections.

A home loss to Vanderbilt was a bad result, no question, but the end result of that game and the loss is to Tennessee is that our projection this week is only one seed line worse than it was a week ago.

To also put that in perspective, a 5 seed would still be one of the best seasons in school history. It was the best seed Mark Turgeon ever achieved here, in 2010, and would only trail the 2016 and 2007 teams. Still very good!

And here's the thing, a projected 5 seed assumes 9 and 6 point losses to Florida and Auburn respectively. Out play that projection and we've still got a chance to make a move up.

Something to consider...

How much do we believe the committee tipped their hand in the initial reveal that they're going to lean on the new NET WAB metric this year? Here are the initial 16 teams and how far they were from their WAB ranking on 2/15 when they revealed the top 16:

Auburn, Alabama, Duke (+3), Florida (-1), Tennessee (-1), Texas A&M (-1), Purdue, Houston (+1), Iowa State (+3), Kentucky (-2), Wisconsin, Arizona (+6), Texas Tech (+8), Michigan (-1), Kansas (+4), St. John's (-1)

With a couple of exceptions, three of which were Big 12 teams, they stayed pretty close to the WAB. How much do we buy that holding true in a few weeks? Going to make a big difference for a few teams below.

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Forget about it...

1 - 1 | Auburn (25-2) | Lexington
Projected results: at Kentucky (W -5), at Texas A&M (W -5), vs Alabama (W -10)
1 - 2 | Duke (25-3) | Raleigh
Projected results: Florida State (W -24), Wake Forest (W -20), at North Carolina (W -11)
1 - 3 | Houston (24-4) | Wichita
Projected results: Cincinnati (W -15), Kansas (W -12), at Baylor (W -8)
1 - 4 | Alabama (23-5) | Lexington
Projected results: at Tennessee (L +3), Florida (W -5), at Auburn (L +10)

• Couple notes on this group:
• Auburn could drop a game, maybe two, and stay the overall #1 seed.
• Note that this projection for Alabama includes two losses, they're the only team of this group not projected to win out.

2 - 5 | Tennesseee (23-5) | Lexington, Raleigh
Projected results: Alabama (W +3), Ole Miss (W -2), South Carolina (W-15)
2 - 6 | Michigan State (23-5) | Cleveland
Projected results: Wisconsin (W -3), at Iowa (W -6), Michigan (W -6)
2 - 7 | Florida (24-4) | Lexington, Raleigh, Cleveland
Projected results: Texas A&M (W -9), at Alabama (L -5), Ole Miss (W -11)

• I considered flipping Tennessee and Alabama here because if the Vols do beat them tomorrow as projected I think the committee would likely put them ahead, but going to stick with the Torvik projection for now. I'd consider the Torvik projection as what the committee *should* do, but despite Alabama's superior resume numbers I wouldn't be surprised if the committee flips them.
• What an absolutely incredible run recently for the Spartans. Two weeks ago I didn't even include them in the Seed Watch because the projections for their remaining games included five losses. Three Quad 1A wins and another Quad 1 win later, here they are, now projected to win out.

Unlikely but not impossible

2 - 8 | Wisconsin (22-6) | Milwaukee
Projected results: at Michigan State (L +3), at Minnesota (W -8), Penn State (W -15)
3 - 9 | Missouri (21-7) | Wichita
Projected results: at Vanderbilt (W -2), at Oklahoma (W -6), Kentucky (W -7)
3 - 10 | Kentucky (19-9) | (ineligible for Lexington), Raleigh, Cleveland, Milwaukee
Projected results: Auburn (L +5), LSU (W -14), at Missouri (L +7)
3 - 11 | Arizona (19-9) | Denver
Projected results: at Iowa State (L +2), Arizona State (W -14), at Kansas (L +1)

• I think Torvik's model is overshooting on Arizona.. I just don't see it, especially if they lose two more games. They already have a WAB ranking of 22.
• I thought the model was overshooting on Kentucky last week as well but after they pulled out that road win at Oklahoma this is probably close to on target. The resume numbers are actually better than the predictives, and they did beat Duke, A&M and Tennessee twice. Still, if they lose two more times as projected I'm not entirely convinced they end up here.

Battling

3 - 12 | Texas Tech (21-7) | Wichita, Denver
Projected results: at Kansas (L +1), Colorado (W -17), at Arizona State (W -6)
4 - 13 | St. John's (25-4) | Providence
Projected results: Seton Hall (W -23), at Marquette (L +1)
4 - 14 | Iowa State (21-7) | Milwaukee, Wichita, Lexington, Denver, Cleveland, Raleigh, Providence
Projected results: Arizona (W -2), BYU (W -4), at Kansas State (W -3)

• Iowa State is a team to watch, they've got three games left that could really go either way. A lot of these teams have a fairly narrow range of possibilities but Iowa State has a fairly large one.

4 - 15 | Purdue (19-9) | Milwaukee, Lexington, Cleveland, Raleigh, Providence, Wichita, Denver, Seattle
Projected results: UCLA (W -5), Rutgers (W -13), at Illinois (L +3)

• Now that Purdue has started losing games they might as well keep going.

4 - 16 | Michigan (22-6) | Milwaukee, Cleveland, Lexington, Raleigh, Providence, Wichita, Denver, Seattle
Projected results: Illinois (W -3), Maryland (W -2), at Michigan State (L +6)
5 - 17 | Maryland (21-7)
Projected results: at Penn State (W -6), Michigan (L +2), Northwestern (W -11)

• If Maryland wins out and teams ahead of them underplay their projections they could be haunted by that 2/3 court heave from Michigan State the other night. One spot on the seed lines in here somewhere is going to be the difference between playing in Providence and playing in Seattle.

5 - 18 | Texas A&M (20-8)
Projected results: at Florida (L +9), Auburn (L +5), at LSU (W -4)

• Hard to overstate how helpful it could be to even keep tomorrow's game close.

5 - 19 | Kansas (19-9)
Projected results: Texas Tech (W -1), at Houston (L +12), Arizona (W -1)

• Kansas is going to have a lot to say about where the Big 12 teams are seeded, quite the stretch of games there.

5 - 20 | Marquette (21-7)
Projected results: at Georgetown (W -4), at UCONN (L +2), St. John's (W -1)
6 - 21 | Clemson (23-5)
Projected results: at Virginia (W -6), at Boston College (W -11), Virginia Tech (W -17)

The next group

6 - 22 |UCLA
6 - 23 |Illinois
6 - 24 |Ole Miss
7 - 25 | St. Mary's

Weekending viewing guide:

Friday 2/28

• UCLA (6) at Purdue (4) - 7 PM - FOX - It doesn't matter if we get our doors blown off, but while UCLA is close behind us on the seed list, we want them to win if we're trying to climb the ranks.

Saturday 3/1

• Clemson (6) at Virginia - 11 AM - ESPN2
• (5) Maryland at Penn State - 11 AM - BTN
• (1) Auburn at (3) Kentucky - 12 PM - ABC
• (3) Texas Tech at (5) Kansas - 1 PM - ESPN - Choose your own adventure here. Optimists are for Kansas, pessimists are for Texas Tech
• Seton Hall at (4) St. John's - 1:15 PM - CBS
• ***BUBBLE GAME OF THE WEEK***
  (1) Alabama at (2) Tennessee - 3 PM - ESPN
• Cincinnati at (1) Houston - 3:30 PM - CBS
• (3) Missouri at (9) Vanderbilt - 5 PM - SECN
• Pittsburgh at Louisville (7) - 5 PM - ESPN2 -
• Marquette (5) at Georgetown - 7 PM - Peacock
• (5) Texas A&M at (2) Florida - 7:30 PM - SECN
• (3) Arizona at (4) Iowa State - 8 PM - ESPN - Side eye this game and if it looks like we might win then we're for Iowa State. If we're losing then Arizona.

Sunday 3/2

• (2) Wisconsin at (2) Michigan State - 12:30 PM - CBS - Likely doesn't matter but if we were happen to beat Florida and Auburn, Michigan State is more likely to be catchable because they still have several losable games. Wisconsin is probably home free after this game.
• (6) Illinois at (4) Michigan - 2:45 PM - CBS - TBD: Illinois if we win or keep it really close, Michigan if we lose badly

Monday 3/3

• (B- out) Wake Forest at (1) Duke - 6 PM - ESPN
• (5) Kansas at (1) Houston - 8 PM - ESPN

Thanks for doing this Bob. Interesting reading as always. And nice to have commentary that is not so damn negative like a lot of the other dialogue on this board right now. I've been watching Aggie Basketball for 30 years and this is still one of the best teams I have witnessed.

It's because everyone is doing it "as if the season ended today."

Bobinator,
Thanks for doing this post. You are easily the most knowledgeable, level headed poster on the basketball board. And your input is greatly appreciated.