AggieFrog said:

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HotardAg07 said:

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AggieFrog said:

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HotardAg07 said:

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TexasAggie008 said:

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It just isn't going to happen

Accept it and move on

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That's a very close minded attitude.

If our leaders said that this was the fastest way to get back to "normal" and if the masks were readily available, I bet there would be rapid adoption.

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I have yet to see where wearing a non-N95 mask prevents anyone from become infected. It would be more for morale and social signaling than public health.

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If it had mass adoption, like in Japan/Korea, then it would help to prevent asymptomatic people from spreading it.

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Marginally. High availability, rapid testing would be much more helpful.

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It's not an either/or scenario. Do both.

I'm sticking with my original guess of things starting to revert in mid-April. Fully back to normal over the summer, except maybe in a few places like NYC/SF, and a few things like travel from China.

The same forces that push our politicians into overreaction one way will work in reverse. As soon as one says something like "our measures worked, it's time to return to normal instead of living in fear" and it makes people happy... all the rest of the politicians will do it.

That said, the economic toll of the crisis bill will likely crush the economy anyway.

and to protect others from asymptomatic/ mild symptomatic spread

What are the chances kids will get to go to summer camps this year?

My kid has been looking forward to camp since he left last summer.

KT_Ag08 said:

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Zero chance you are going to have mass gatherings allowed in church at what many people predict will be the peak of the virus here.

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Yup - Fort Worth just extended the emergency declaration until May 15th. No in-person church through at least then. I expect other localities to do the same.

how expensive is a test compared to a mask?

how ubiquitous can masks be as opposed to testing?

this isn't hard

cone said:

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how expensive is a test compared to a mask?

how ubiquitous can masks be as opposed to testing?

this isn't hard

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How effective is a mask (not very is my point) vs mapping out hot spots of virus (which is).

Texicurean said:

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What are the chances kids will get to go to summer camps this year?

My kid has been looking forward to camp since he left last summer.

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I think that's going to depend on how well opening up the businesses work. Parents are going to need kids out of the house to open up the country full-steam. If we get to May with businesses & restaurants reopening with the curve staying flat then there's a good chance the camps come back. If we struggle through the beginning of the summer, everything school-aged childcare related stays closed until August.

I do think any deadlines are completely pointless right now. If things are looking better in 3 weeks, any state's of emergency can be canceled. If they aren't, they can be extended.

As far as camps go, I talked to a higher up at one of the larger ones in Texas last week. They are planning to start on time, but obviously watching things. They are also working on contingencies to cancel a a few weeks and add capacity to the remainder of the summer if they have to.

you're going to catch asymptomatic cases with your magic test wand? or pre-symptomatic spread?

good luck

curious why you think a mask isn't effective at preventing a sick person from spreading germs

cuz the CDC explicitly says it is

AggieFrog said:

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cone said:

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how expensive is a test compared to a mask?

how ubiquitous can masks be as opposed to testing?

this isn't hard

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How effective is a mask (not very is my point) vs mapping out hot spots of virus (which is).

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Again, why do you treat these things as mutually exclusive?

I think that schools will not restart this school year - and that everyone goes back in August as normal.

I believe the SIP orders around the country, outside of New York and a few other large metroplex areas will be lifted in a few weeks with ongoing restrictions on sizes of gatherings until July 1. People want to get back to work and normal activities as soon as possible.

Normalcy will return until only after the presidential election. The dems want this to hurt as much as possible in order to reclaim the presidency.

Once the election is over, regardless of the outcome, most restrictions are gone. If the country tragically elects a dem/socialist president, then all of this will be over on Nov. 3, with credit assigned by the media to the glorious leader in the office of the president elect.

Our kid is going to a couple different overnight camps this summer. One has already canceled and one hasn't.

1/2 Man 1/2 Amazing said:

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Normal being, school starts again and people can start going back to work...what say you?

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School is almost certainly done for the academic year, so if that is part of the criteria then not until August.

My thoughts as well

cone said:

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curious why you think a mask isn't effective at preventing a sick person from spreading germs

cuz the CDC explicitly says it is

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Because people aren't hygienic, will still touch their face then other surfaces, will likely not wear it correctly, will not clean it regularly, etc. It may slow a bit what is spread via the air, but they're still breathing and plain masks don't prevent that air from escaping.

As I said, it may be marginally helpful but does that outweigh the costs of the masks? Maybe. Still seems more for morale than anything.

My wife's an RN and just chuckles when seeing folks walk around with surgical masks/gloves at the grocery store.

I can't imagine we'll be able to go back to Zambia any earlier than August but to be honest it will probably be longer than that.

schwabbin said:

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The longer this goes on the bigger the party is going to be when it's all lifted.

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I'm taking my happy ass to the local watering hole from open to close the first day it's open.

month or two

I tend to think May as well, but that assumes: new case and death rate start flattening; tests are widely available and fast; protective masks (NOT surgical) are widely available and large events (lots of strangers, close together) remain banned for a while - probably this time next year. And I don't know about Texas, but zero chance churches are open in Washington for Easter. None.

I hope we do not see crowds at baseball games this season (serves absolutely no purpose economically - very definition of recreation). I also tend to think, barring a vaccine, we should have football without fans too - television and team support people as well as players can be tested weekly.

When local, city and state governments fully realize how long they can't function without tax revenue or OPM, then we will begin to see restrictions ease.

Record UE
Tax revenue decrease
Shift to WFH business
Cost increases for required PPE and safe work practices
Etc
Etc
Etc

My WAG is May 4...everyone back to the grind...

i'll just offer this as a counter point to your wife

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html

it's not just security theater in Japan and wouldn't be here

i know i won't be shopping without a mask, both to help break the taboo and to protect myself and others

i wish you felt the same

this whole thread is worth the view

No chance for school. I image bars, restaurants, etc will start coming back around May but most companies that have workers WFH willl make going into the office optional

TecRecAg said:

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schwabbin said:

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The longer this goes on the bigger the party is going to be when it's all lifted.

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I'm taking my happy ass to the local watering hole from open to close the first day it's open.

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I'll just have to go back to it being my own fault I'm an incel.

Hoping for may 1st

Rally continue through tomorrow? My vote is a lot will exit before the weekend and we will end down 7-8%. Still a solid week.

thelaw4 said:

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No chance for school. I image bars, restaurants, etc will start coming back around May but most companies that have workers WFH willl make going into the office optional

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But based on current CFR rates...shouldn't the youngsters be the first set of folks back...and the kids and the parents still young enough to have school aged children just take great care when being around the olds?

We will have to see. I want schools back, but would be concerned that enough teachers would be able to make it happen. In my department alone 30 percent of us would be considered directly at risk. Pregnant, older, asthma, autoimmune. And those are just the ones I know well enought to know those things about them. Another ten percent are caregivers with high risk people living in their homes. So how do you reopen with that many staff members not able to work.

If the current shelter-in-place orders work to flatten the curve, I think people can start returning to normal once we get sufficient testing capacity to handle it the way South Korea handles it. That is, to quickly test those that each confirmed case had contact with. This testing will allow us to isolate those likely to have it while allowing others to return to work.

Besides the test kits, we will also need sufficient swabs, PPE, and test processing capacity.

Finding a treatment that will lessen the need for hospitalization and ventilator use would also help.

I'd bet things start going back to normal, at least in parts of the county, by early May.