What lifts the shelter in place?

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mccjames
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4:50p, 3/30/20
AG
So I keep trying to figure out what lifts the shelter in place orders around the country?

Is it a decrease in deaths or new infections?

Is it a cure or a vaccine?

Is it flattening the curve or delaying the inevitable 80% infection rate?

I read 1 more week, 2 weeks, end of April, end of May, next fall etc...

It really looks like an open ended decision by the Mayors and Governors with no real trigger for lifting.

On of the Stats web pages https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections says Texas will peak on May 2, do we lift at the peak or does that trigger another peak down the road which will trigger another shelter in place?

I am just trying to figure out when we can get back to some sense of normalcy.
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ham98
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4:52p, 3/30/20
When we believe we have enough hospitalization capacity to handle the remaining population who will get sick
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mccjames
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4:59p, 3/30/20
AG
Well according to the link in Texas at least we have the capacity of hospital and ICU beds for the peak day in May.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections you have to click on the UNITED STATES and you can select by State.
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Dad
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4:59p, 3/30/20
AG
The peak of infections is not the peak of hospitalization which would be a week or two after that.

Also, it may not be so obvious when we hit the peak because we may see a drop then a rise then a drop then a rise then a drop in new cases.

I think the big thing is finding a cure that will reduce hospitalization and death by a great deal and having enough of that cure to go to mild cases. This also means that we are not waiting a week on test results.

Once we have the quick tests and a cure with plenty of supply we don't need to worry about the peak overwhelming our hospitals.
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Capitol Ag
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In reply to mccjames • 5:04p, 3/30/20
AG
Where are you getting an inevitable 80% rate?
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mccjames
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5:15p, 3/30/20
AG
One of the early reports I read, will have to search, see tons of different predictions though so probably none of them are very accurate. This one throws around 40%-70% as a possibility but thinks 50% is more likely.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/coronavirus-will-get-worse-in-america.html

This one uses 40%-70% and also says "attack rate" whatever that is could be 60% - 80%

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for
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Johnny2Fan
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5:48p, 3/30/20
Two weeks before election.
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Jet Black
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6:13p, 3/30/20
Another month max imo. People aren't going to put up with this forever.
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RM1993
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In reply to mccjames • 6:20p, 3/30/20
AG
mccjames said:
Well according to the link in Texas at least we have the capacity of hospital and ICU beds for the peak day in May.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections you have to click on the UNITED STATES and you can select by State.


I think it is a huge fallacy to look at beds for the entire US or beds for the entire state of Texas. The real question is whether Houston has enough for their peak, Dallas for theirs, etc. 500 available beds in El Paso don't mean squat if Houston is overwhelmed and vice a versa.
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Dad-O-Lot
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7:02p, 3/30/20
AG
I'm afraid that lifting them will be more political than putting them in place.

I guarantee that whichever Judge or Mayor lifts the restrictions first will be sued by someone whose loved one contracts and dies from Covid-19 after the restriction is lifted. They will not win because of governmental immunity, but it will be a public relations nightmare for that judge or mayor. This will be made even worse if that judge or mayor is Republican. It will be off the charts if that judge or mayor has ever publicly said anything less than disparaging about Trump.
People of integrity expect to be believed, when they're not, they let time prove them right.
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Dad-O-Lot
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7:05p, 3/30/20
AG
If we can put politics aside, I would hope/expect that in a county that sees a reduction in hospitalizations that sustains for more than a few days, the Judge would issue a revised order to remove the "stay home" restrictions and allows any business to operate but with certain "social distancing" and other heath-related restrictions in place.

If hospitalizations in that county due to Covid-19 continue to drop, then I would expect to see further lifting of restrictions on a weekly basis.
People of integrity expect to be believed, when they're not, they let time prove them right.
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DadHammer
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9:34p, 3/30/20
AG
Plenty of fast test kits and a cure like HCQ and Zpacs and zinc for a large population.
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mccjames
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10:24p, 3/30/20
AG
So basically there isn't any defined reason for lifting, that scares the crap out of me, I can see months going by.
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ham98
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In reply to mccjames • 10:29p, 3/30/20
mccjames said:
So basically there isn't any defined reason for lifting, that scares the crap out of me, I can see months going by.
That would result in economic armageddon.
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Federale01
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In reply to mccjames • 11:42p, 3/30/20
AG
mccjames said:
So basically there isn't any defined reason for lifting, that scares the crap out of me, I can see months going by.

But we aren't the government so our inability to define a reason is pretty meaningless.

My guess is it would be when the experts think we have moved from exponential growth to a time where we can use testing, tracking, and isolation at the individual level effectively enough to contain it.
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Justin2010
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12:36a, 3/31/20
AG
2nd or 3rd week of April. Treatments are proven to work, drugs have been mass produced and are readily available, an testing available almost instantly.

We may not be back to normal by then, but things will start to loosen up.
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AgsNguyen
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1:00a, 3/31/20
AG
April will be a lost month. Peak in Texas hopefully by beginning of May, late May stuff starts loosening, June 1 we're really rolling.

In Fall, when it comes back, treatments and prior exposure to a point where we don't have to shut anything down again.

That's what I think we're hoping for.
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mccjames
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In reply to RM1993 • 1:44p, 3/31/20
AG
It would be nice to have the data by county but it does not seem to be available.
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HotardAg07
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1:59p, 3/31/20
AG
Quote:
Trigger for Moving to Phase II
A state can safely proceed to Phase II when it has achieved all the following:
  • A sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days,
  • Hospitals in the state are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care,22
  • The state is able to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms, and
  • The state is able to conduct active monitoring of confirmed cases and their contacts.23


https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

That report goes through all the phsaes, talks about transitioning from one phase to the other. One of the coauthors is the Scott Gottleib, Trump's former FDA Commissioner.
Shaun Shaikh '07
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Proposition Joe
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2:12p, 3/31/20
It will vary from state-to-state based on where they are in their wave, but for Texas I'd venture to guess May 15th or June 1 is when we'll be given the clear to resume activities (possibly May 15th on the business/personal side of things, June 1 on events of any size over 50).

With the size of events being increased on an every-other-week basis depending on how things are looking. Possibly with a requirement to wear masks if attending those larger events.

By May 15th we should be through the initial big wave in Texas (I'm guessing that starts around April 10th and goes through the 25th), and with capacity increased, load decreasing, hopefully a good medical "attack" plan for infected patients and increased infection testing and antibody testing we can start getting back to the normal things in life -- though likely with a pretty high monthly death rate to the virus.
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J. Walter Weatherman
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2:23p, 3/31/20
Have to love a bunch of scientists and government officials who will never have to worry about a paycheck making decisions that will completely ruin businesses across the country.
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PFG
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2:33p, 3/31/20
AG
Not this...

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Jet Black
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2:36p, 3/31/20
I don't see anyway this goes on for another 2 months.
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mccjames
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In reply to HotardAg07 • 2:50p, 3/31/20
AG
HotardAg07 said:
Quote:
Trigger for Moving to Phase II
A state can safely proceed to Phase II when it has achieved all the following:
  • A sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days,
  • Hospitals in the state are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care,22
  • The state is able to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms, and
  • The state is able to conduct active monitoring of confirmed cases and their contacts.23


https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

That report goes through all the phsaes, talks about transitioning from one phase to the other. One of the coauthors is the Scott Gottleib, Trump's former FDA Commissioner.

If this is the case then I do not see us averting a full fledged depression like we have not seen in our generation.

I would guess that at least 50% of all business will close if they cannot operate until we have 14 days of reduction in cases, that will most likely not occur until June at the earliest. 3 months of shelter in place will destroy our economy and will result in such damage that it will be years to recover.

The government does not have the money to bail out everyone for 3 months of lost revenue.
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Rapier108
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In reply to mccjames • 2:53p, 3/31/20
mccjames said:
HotardAg07 said:
Quote:
Trigger for Moving to Phase II
A state can safely proceed to Phase II when it has achieved all the following:
  • A sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days,
  • Hospitals in the state are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care,22
  • The state is able to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms, and
  • The state is able to conduct active monitoring of confirmed cases and their contacts.23


https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

That report goes through all the phsaes, talks about transitioning from one phase to the other. One of the coauthors is the Scott Gottleib, Trump's former FDA Commissioner.

If this is the case then I do not see us averting a full fledged depression like we have not seen in our generation.

I would guess that at least 50% of all business will close if they cannot operate until we have 14 days of reduction in cases, that will most likely not occur until June at the earliest. 3 months of shelter in place will destroy our economy and will result in such damage that it will be years to recover.

The government does not have the money to bail out everyone for 3 months of lost revenue.
At this point, I don't think the government cares about the economic impact. Many mayors and county officials have said they will not take economic impact into consideration as they impose their orders on the population.

They would rather send the country into a 20 year depression than risk the death toll increasing by even .1%.

And you have millions of morons cheering them on.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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PFG
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In reply to Rapier108 • 2:56p, 3/31/20
AG
Quote:
And you have millions of morons cheering them on.


(Raises hand) Over here cheering. Keep shutting it down.
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texags08
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In reply to mccjames • 3:05p, 3/31/20
AG
mccjames said:
It would be nice to have the data by county but it does not seem to be available.
Try this site...

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
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River Bass
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3:05p, 3/31/20
Quote:
Many mayors and county officials have said they will not take economic impact into consideration as they impose their orders on the population.
I imagine most of inner city America will start ignoring shelter in place orders by late April and they will start roaming the streets and mayors and county officials wont be able to do a damn thing about it.

As mentioned on another thread, if the federal government can keep the power and internet on and keep pantry's full for every American then we can shelter in place indefinitely.
If not, then shelter in place ends as soon as people start getting hungry (or bored)
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walton91
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In reply to River Bass • 3:07p, 3/31/20
River Bass said:
Quote:
Many mayors and county officials have said they will not take economic impact into consideration as they impose their orders on the population.
I imagine most of inner city America will start ignoring shelter in place orders by late April and they will start roaming the streets and mayors and county officials wont be able to do a damn thing about it.

As mentioned on another thread, if the federal government can keep the power and internet on and keep pantry's full for every American then we can shelter in place indefinitely.
If not, then shelter in place ends as soon as people start getting hungry.
Um...what?
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Rapier108
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In reply to PFG • 3:09p, 3/31/20
PFG said:
Quote:
And you have millions of morons cheering them on.


(Raises hand) Over here cheering. Keep shutting it down.
Then don't cry if we reach a point where 1929 seems like a good year.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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In reply to River Bass • 3:09p, 3/31/20
HotardAg07
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In reply to mccjames • 3:16p, 3/31/20
AG
If the government removed all of the social distancing guidelines, but coronavirus related deaths were still increasing daily, how well would the economy be realistically performing? It seems like a fair bar to clear to say that the virus should be on a downward trend, or else people won't feel safe going out and spending money anyways.
Shaun Shaikh '07
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mccjames
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In reply to PFG • 3:16p, 3/31/20
AG
I am in the truck, trailer agriculture parts industry, trust me, from conversations with the guys that haul your food and the guys who are relying on fertilizers and materials to plant your food, you will not have any food if this goes on for 3 months.

It is already getting bad with trucking due to finances, but now the farmers are coming in and telling us they can't get materials due to shutdown.

I really do not think everyone fully understands the potential collapse of infrastructure due to business failures. I am not talking temporary closures, 3 months will cause non recoverable failures.
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to Rapier108 • 3:16p, 3/31/20
Rapier108 said:
PFG said:
Quote:
And you have millions of morons cheering them on.


(Raises hand) Over here cheering. Keep shutting it down.
Then don't cry if we reach a point where 1929 seems like a good year.

Just like you chide any of the people concerned about this virus for being dramatic about potential deaths, don't be dramatic about great depression level economic depths.

Don't assume policy makers at the federal, state and local levels haven't taken into consideration economic impact just because you don't like the decisions being made. It's as intellectually dishonest as saying that if Trump loosens economic restrictions that he "doesn't care about people dying".
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mccjames
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In reply to HotardAg07 • 3:23p, 3/31/20
AG
I understand this argument, I have no problem with what we are doing right now to slow and attempt to flatten the curve. However I am getting very worried about out long term survival if this keeps going for 3 or more months.
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