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If the government removed all of the social distancing guidelines, but coronavirus related deaths were still increasing daily, how well would the economy be realistically performing?

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If death rates continue to climb it will wreck many businesses, but others could still survive (shipping and logistics, health care, agriculture, infrastructure jobs, etc.)
We had FDR's New Deal during the depression to keep people employed.
The key is getting people back to work before it is too late.

To me, this is kind of like going to war.
Declaring war on an enemy should never be taken lightly and if done, you expect that there will be tremendous loss of life. This fear of loss of life didn't stop past leaders from facing their enemies head on for the greater good of the country.
COVID19 is our enemy and I think at some point we will have to face it head on to save our country.

ham98 said:

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When we believe we have enough hospitalization capacity to handle the remaining population who will get sick

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Simply put, this better be the only consideration.

mccjames said:

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Ok talk me off the cliff, why should I not be worried about great depression levels? What gives you hope that we can recover from 3 months of shelter in place?

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I'm not saying that we can. I'm saying that it's naive to think that no one at the federal, state and local level is giving the long-term economic impact any thought.

Whichever side your political leanings are on, it's clear to most that Trump very much likes to measure the job he is doing by the success of the economy and the stock market. So doesn't it stand to reason that if he decides to make long-term extreme suggestions/guidelines such as shelter-in-place for 3 months that him and his team believe the economic impact if we DON'T do it will be even greater?

Thanks for sharing that

I don't make predictions so good lucky finding where I once said what this virus would do, other than saying that any theory could be right, but in the end, it would probably be somewhere in between.

Saying millions will be out of work and it could push this country into a depression aren't my predictions. It is simply repeating what numerous economists have been saying for weeks.

mccjames said:

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Ok talk me off the cliff, why should I not be worried about great depression levels? What gives you hope that we can recover from 3 months of shelter in place?

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Well, judging the character of the current sitting president, along with his own self-interests, I don't think there is anyway he lets things run for so long that every business tanks. I think he, more than most, is more inclined toward err more on the side of saving the economy rather than saving lives.

And I am not criticizing him for that. This is an impossible dilemma he has been placed in.

Italy seems to have control of the virus, but now they have to deal with the fall out.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/italy-coronavirus-lowest-daily-infections-2-weeks-poorer-south-rioting-looting-mafia

beerad12man said:

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PFG said:

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And you have millions of morons cheering them on.

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(Raises hand) Over here cheering. Keep shutting it down.

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At what point does it stop? This isn't to save every single life. If that was always our goal, we ban traveling by motor vehicle, we shut things down just like we are now every flu season. I mean, every life counts!

No, IMHO the main reason we are doing this, as noble as it sounds, isn't to save every single life. It's to keep hospitals from being overrun. Once the curve dips below the capacity, we have to start getting back to normal. Even if it means easing back into it by only allowing restaurants to operate at 25% capacity, making sure HEB/Walmart/all department stores limit their capacity and maintain the 6 foot rule, etc. We can get back to relative normal and still take measures to keep from rampant spreading. I understand why we are doing it now, and potentially the next month as we run into what is predicted to be the peak. But once we dip below the peak and can be relatively certain hospitals aren't overrun, it's time to start getting back to normal.

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Rapier108 said:

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I don't make predictions so good lucky finding where I once said what this virus would do, other than saying that any theory could be right, but in the end, it would probably be somewhere in between.

Saying millions will be out of work and it could push this country into a depression aren't my predictions. It is simply repeating what numerous economists have been saying for weeks.

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Just like there's numerous medical professionals who have forecast what would happen to our population if this thing went unchecked.

There's "those morons" that favor every life over any $ and "those morons" that favor every $ over any life.

Don't kid yourself that you are somehow above that fray when you post - you are just on one side of it so you naturally can't see the other.

"I'm not saying that we can. I'm saying that it's naive to think that no one at the federal, state and local level is giving the long-term economic impact any thought."

I am not naive, however I have not had many good experiences with government and long-term thoughts on anything economic. Especially when it comes to small business survival.

We will see.

HotardAg07 said:

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Trigger for Moving to Phase II
A state can safely proceed to Phase II when it has achieved all the following:

• A sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days,
• Hospitals in the state are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care,22
• The state is able to test all people with COVID-19 symptoms, and
• The state is able to conduct active monitoring of confirmed cases and their contacts.23

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https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

That report goes through all the phsaes, talks about transitioning from one phase to the other. One of the coauthors is the Scott Gottleib, Trump's former FDA Commissioner.

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I think that's a great read. Thanks for posting it.

Seems a clear path.

Need testing, that seems to be on the way.
Need treatment for those that get it, sounds like we are figuring that out every day.
Need a vaccine or a cure for those that can't beat it on their own, doesn't seem like that's too far off either.
Need to be able to handle an influx of patients, I see temp hospitals going up and more ventilator capacity coming in (although slowly).

If I read Governor Abbot's decree from yesterday correctly, this new decree overrides all city and county orders and suspends the law that gives county judges and mayors the authority to make such orders.

In this new order of the Governor's religious gatherings are now identified as "essential" as long as they follow the social distancing guidelines.

Watch for the governor to be vilified for putting lives at risk and removing local controls.

OldCamp said:

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Italy seems to have control of the virus, but now they have to deal with the fall out.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/italy-coronavirus-lowest-daily-infections-2-weeks-poorer-south-rioting-looting-mafia

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This kind of stuff happens in the southern part of Italy from time to time, whether there is a crisis in the country or not. It's kind of what people in and around Naples do.

As we have seen the virus hit the Texas and Texags communities, it dawned on me that more and more people will have
1) Personally had it and gotten over it
2) Known someone who had it and gotten over it, both mild or even asymptomatic cases if antibody testing is rolled on on a huge and accurate scale

I think as the number of people in each category grows, fear will subside. I think by that time we'll a much clearer data picture, gathered in our own country, to work with as well. As a result, sheltering of individuals will be more targeted and those that have the option to go out or work, but are afraid to, will start to go out. So, kind of driven by public sentiment and good data.

If you believe the graphs showing when this would peak and subside, you would think by mid to late May we would then see things open up. But I struggle to believe those curves - nearly every infection and every death will happen in next 8 weeks? We will see.

Unfortunately you're right - this peak subsiding doesn't mean the pandemic is over. That doesn't happen until we get herd immunity, or we stamp it out by really, really effective quarantine and isolation, or we get a vaccine.

Dallas extending till May. My fear is being confirmed, we shelter in place which slows the spread, this in turn pushes the peak down the calendar, so then we push the shelter in place down the calendar as well. This will keep moving indefinitely.

Unemployment is going to sky rocket, business closures are going to skyrocket, tax revenue will plummet and deficit will skyrocket.

I was scared before, I am terrified now, I am 100% sure we are heading into economic hard times like we have never seen and it will take a decade to recover from.

mccjames said:

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I am in the truck, trailer agriculture parts industry, trust me, from conversations with the guys that haul your food and the guys who are relying on fertilizers and materials to plant your food, you will not have any food if this goes on for 3 months.

It is already getting bad with trucking due to finances, but now the farmers are coming in and telling us they can't get materials due to shutdown.

I really do not think everyone fully understands the potential collapse of infrastructure due to business failures. I am not talking temporary closures, 3 months will cause non recoverable failures.

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What materials are unavailable?

That is probably because I own a small business. 35 employees, considered essential. However I am looking at 35% revenue reduction currently and can see that falling further as this goes on. So even with the care package which I am applying for and the loan which I really do not want to do based on my age. I see the potential for my company to burn too much cash to survive. So yeah I am very very concerned. I see economic disaster at a level none of us have ever experienced, and therefore really do not know how to fix.

Won't matter after a while. Any place you would want to go will be out of business.

TCTTS said:

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mccjames said:

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Dallas extending till May. My fear is being confirmed, we shelter in place which slows the spread, this in turn pushes the peak down the calendar, so then we push the shelter in place down the calendar as well. This will keep moving indefinitely.

Unemployment is going to sky rocket, business closures are going to skyrocket, tax revenue will plummet and deficit will skyrocket.

I was scared before, I am terrified now, I am 100% sure we are heading into economic hard times like we have never seen and it will take a decade to recover from.

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You know how so many of you gripe about those losing their heads and claiming the sky is falling when it comes to virus deaths and what not? Well, the "government is going to keep us on lockdown forever" crowd is starting to sound just as hysterical and panicky.

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I agree with you that a lot of the "government is going to keep us locked down forever" is getting into the area of hysteria.

But you have to admit, sitting here on April 3, 2020, Dallas county already extending their SIP order until the end of May is concerning.

I'm in Harris County and am concerned my county will follow suit soon based on Dallas County's decision.

Why couldn't they have waited until the end of April to see how things are going. Hell, even mid April. Did they go back and look at actuals to date against their prior forecast before the initial and subsequent SIP orders? Making decisions based on forecasts is common, but your forecast better have a damn good foundation in regards to facts and variables otherwise it's useless.

What's your opinion?

mccjames said:

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That is probably because I own a small business. 35 employees, considered essential. However I am looking at 35% revenue reduction currently and can see that falling further as this goes on. So even with the care package which I am applying for and the loan which I really do not want to do based on my age. I see the potential for my company to burn too much cash to survive. So yeah I am very very concerned. I see economic disaster at a level none of us have ever experienced, and therefore really do not know how to fix.

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The alternative to what we are doing now is to take the leash off and let people do what they want. Even if you are lucky enough to come through that scenario unscathed, your business will still fail because too many of your customers will be dead....

30,000 new infections & 1,000 deaths per day. Enough said.

Again I am not saying we just go back to zero efforts. However the statistics do not show that everyone who gets this just drops dead!

Keep the highest risk of mortality, which is overwhelming older, heart disease, diabetic, respitory, and high blood pressure in full lockdown. Let the rest of us work with monitoring, social distancing, PPE, and we can pay for the lockdown people.

We have over 1 million cases worldwide we have some pretty accurate stats at this point.

beerad12man said:

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ham98 said:

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When we believe we have enough hospitalization capacity to handle the remaining population who will get sick

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Simply put, this better be the only consideration.

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But how do you know when you get there. If you are not measuring infection rate accurately or recovery rates accurately (what % has antibodies)....then how will we ever know we have enough hospital capacity. Leads me to believe that we will have to have an effective therapy, before opening up the gates, which seems too far away not to risk economic sucide.

Also, I don't see Houston area doing anything to build icu capacity, health care worker capacity or even hospital capacity. The only thing being actively driven by county/city leaders seems to be social distancing. This can't be the only answer. Will our inept political leaders take the risk to avoid economic disaster before a legit therapy is available.....doubtful. I don't see any easy answers and few working are the hard decisions

I think we really need a reliable, cheap and fast antibody test. Anyone that test positive for the antibody would theoretically be able to resume normal life after a 2-3 week quarantine. Basically the clock for your return to normalcy would start at the time of your positive test.

This would get those asymptomatic people back into the workforce ASAP. The remainder may have to wait for a decline to signal the shelter in place being lifted for specific areas. I'm really hoping that there is a large percentage of asymptomatic people that never knew they had it. This would really boost the economy but we need a reliable antibody test to get there.

Without a reliable antibody test, I guessing late May or early June for most locations in Texas to lift the shelter in place. This is just an guess based on the data I have looked at and the human nature of those in charge not wanting to be 1st or pull the trigger too fast. Similar to how it went when the shelter in place was put in place too late in a lot of places.