Models for Texas

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JB99
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11:26p, 4/1/20
AG
Has anyone seen any models showing predictions for Texas?

Do we know when it's supposed to peak? How many deaths per day at the peak?

What's the estimated range for deaths and over what time period?

Are there estimates for infections and hospitalizations as well?
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5StarShield
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11:28p, 4/1/20
AG
I don't know how anyone could create models based upon how limited the testing has been in Texas.

Edit -spelling
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Fitch
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In reply to JB99 • 11:30p, 4/1/20
AG
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

You can change the selection to Texas or other states or the US overall. This is the model the federal task force has mentioned on TV a few times now. It is revised daily with actuals, so it does shift around.

Currently looking at a peak in early May, with +/- 150 deaths a day. Total fatalities for the state are projected around 6,100 Texans.
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Not a Bot
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11:37p, 4/1/20
AG
We can likely estimate total deaths even without mass testing as the people being tested are severe cases requiring hospitalization. Can't determine mortality rate or total infected without mass testing or retrospective studies sampling antibodies.
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OldArmyBrent
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11:40p, 4/1/20
AG
Definitely expected something else when I opened this thread.
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JB99
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11:52p, 4/1/20
AG
Thx. The next two weeks in NY looks bad. 12,000 dead
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Gap
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In reply to Fitch • 2:34a, 4/2/20
AG
Fitch said:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

You can change the selection to Texas or other states or the US overall. This is the model the federal task force has mentioned on TV a few times now. It is revised daily with actuals, so it does shift around.

Currently looking at a peak in early May, with +/- 150 deaths a day. Total fatalities for the state are projected around 6,100 Texans.


So the Texans that are going to die during the peak in early May, wouldn't have the virus yet given the incubation period and time from onset to a potential death.

What are the assumptions I am missing to make this work with most things shut down and people at home?
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Newoldarmy
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In reply to Gap • 5:59a, 4/2/20
AG
I think it follows this course everywhere and this projection takes into account the stay at home measures.

I live in a central Texas county where we've had a case here and there for a couple of weeks with pretty good adherence to the restrictions.

By this time next week we are projected to have about 35 cases then jump to 50 or 60 after another week. Then, a huge jump up with a lot of infections on scales other places under restrictions have seen. Apparently, it's going to be transmitted to some degree unless absolutely everyone stays home completely.

I'm hoping we'll do a lot better than the projections based on having a lot more spread out, rural lifestyle.

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Drip99
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In reply to Newoldarmy • 7:21a, 4/2/20
AG
Newoldarmy said:
I think it follows this course everywhere and this projection takes into account the stay at home measures.

I live in a central Texas county where we've had a case here and there for a couple of weeks with pretty good adherence to the restrictions.

By this time next week we are projected to have about 35 cases then jump to 50 or 60 after another week. Then, a huge jump up with a lot of infections on scales other places under restrictions have seen. Apparently, it's going to be transmitted to some degree unless absolutely everyone stays home completely.

I'm hoping we'll do a lot better than the projections based on having a lot more spread out, rural lifestyle.



I'm still struggling to see how we explode in cases in a month if we are locked down now? How will cases spread unless folks aren't following the orders?
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Dr.HeadCase
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In reply to Drip99 • 7:23a, 4/2/20
AG
JesusQuintana said:
Newoldarmy said:
I think it follows this course everywhere and this projection takes into account the stay at home measures.

I live in a central Texas county where we've had a case here and there for a couple of weeks with pretty good adherence to the restrictions.

By this time next week we are projected to have about 35 cases then jump to 50 or 60 after another week. Then, a huge jump up with a lot of infections on scales other places under restrictions have seen. Apparently, it's going to be transmitted to some degree unless absolutely everyone stays home completely.

I'm hoping we'll do a lot better than the projections based on having a lot more spread out, rural lifestyle.



I'm still struggling to see how we explode in cases in a month if we are locked down now? How will cases spread unless folks aren't following the orders?


Cause folks aren't following the orders
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m-walker
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In reply to Drip99 • 7:25a, 4/2/20
AG
Not completely locked down. The government was considerate enough not to bankrupt all industries. There are still plenty of people going out for work.
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Old Buffalo
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In reply to Drip99 • 7:28a, 4/2/20
AG
I agree, that model does seem off. It also says we needed 121k beds yesterday (60% hospitalization rate) and 20k ventilators (10% serious rate).

None of those numbers have been achieved yet.
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beerad12man
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In reply to Dr.HeadCase • 7:39a, 4/2/20
AG
Dr.HeadCase said:
JesusQuintana said:
Newoldarmy said:
I think it follows this course everywhere and this projection takes into account the stay at home measures.

I live in a central Texas county where we've had a case here and there for a couple of weeks with pretty good adherence to the restrictions.

By this time next week we are projected to have about 35 cases then jump to 50 or 60 after another week. Then, a huge jump up with a lot of infections on scales other places under restrictions have seen. Apparently, it's going to be transmitted to some degree unless absolutely everyone stays home completely.

I'm hoping we'll do a lot better than the projections based on having a lot more spread out, rural lifestyle.



I'm still struggling to see how we explode in cases in a month if we are locked down now? How will cases spread unless folks aren't following the orders?


Cause folks aren't following the orders
Eh, maybe part of it, but we can't shut down the world 100% no matter what the situation is. We still have to have Drs/nurses exposed, food industry exposed, infrastructure to deliver those industries, etc.
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Rocky Rider
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7:43a, 4/2/20
AG
I believe the confidence band around the line gives upper/lower bounding based on success/failure of social distancing, resource availability, etc.
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Swan Song
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7:45a, 4/2/20
AG
Had an employee yesterday go to a free clinic in Houston yesterday for a CV test and they told her she would get the results in 2-3 Weeks.
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HouAggie2007
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8:10a, 4/2/20
I am curious as well if this is a case where the model might not be completely accurate. It shows that we don't have a state wide stay at home order but I believe most major cities do, so I think we might be getting negativity impacted for that in the modeling
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JB99
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In reply to HouAggie2007 • 8:11a, 4/2/20
AG
HouAggie2007 said:
I am curious as well if this is a case where the model might not be completely accurate. It shows that we don't have a state wide stay at home order but I believe most major cities do, so I think we might be getting negativity impacted for that in the modeling
Agreed. Most Counties have issued orders already. Same is true for Florida
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buda91
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8:13a, 4/2/20
AG
I've been tracking Texas deaths since it topped 10 on 25Mar. The cumulative death number over the past 9 days is on a exponential path a little above the line of doubling-every-3-days.

Here's the data, pulled about 8am each day from coronainusa.com. For some reason the Harris county data has been odd the last couple of days, and I can't tell if it's properly included.

Cumulative deaths 25Mar to 2Apr
12
17
23
24
26
32
57
60
69

I hope this slows soon (but it hasn't in other previous locales). At this rate Texas will have 1000 deaths by April 15 and around 10,000 deaths by the end of this month. So I hope it starts bending soon, but we could be in for a rough month in Texas.
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fightingfarmer09
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8:17a, 4/2/20
Live in a rural county. Many of our cases are imported from folks that came back home because colleges and businesses closed and those people came back home to our county.

Been really proud of our county and the neighboring county. We get a detailed report through the local radio on how they traced the transmission and they are then testing folks preemptively if they came into contact with someone found to be infected.

We have several positives with no symptoms, but they have been officially tested.
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Buck Compton
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In reply to buda91 • 8:18a, 4/2/20
AG
buda91 said:
I've been tracking Texas deaths since it topped 10 on 25Mar. The cumulative death number over the past 9 days is on a exponential path a little above the line of doubling-every-3-days.

Here's the data, pulled about 8am each day from coronainusa.com. For some reason the Harris county data has been odd the last couple of days, and I can't tell if it's properly included.

Cumulative deaths 25Mar to 2Apr
12
17
23
24
26
32
57
60
69

I hope this slows soon (but it hasn't in other previous locales). At this rate Texas will have 1000 deaths by April 15 and around 10,000 deaths by the end of this month. So I hope it starts bending soon, but we could be in for a rough month in Texas.
Please tell me what model you used that extrapolated that to 10,000 deaths?

Net new deaths every day:
5
6
1
2
6
5
3
9
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buda91
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In reply to Buck Compton • 8:23a, 4/2/20
AG
Buck Compton said:
buda91 said:
I've been tracking Texas deaths since it topped 10 on 25Mar. The cumulative death number over the past 9 days is on a exponential path a little above the line of doubling-every-3-days.


Here's the data, pulled about 8am each day from coronainusa.com. For some reason the Harris county data has been odd the last couple of days, and I can't tell if it's properly included.

Cumulative deaths 25Mar to 2Apr
12
17
23
24
26
32
57
60
69

I hope this slows soon (but it hasn't in other previous locales). At this rate Texas will have 1000 deaths by April 15 and around 10,000 deaths by the end of this month. So I hope it starts bending soon, but we could be in for a rough month in Texas.
Please tell me what model you used that extrapolated that to 10,000 deaths?

Net new deaths every day:
5
6
1
2
6
5
3
9


I have it charted on official Luddite graph-paper and the current line is basically doubling every 3 days. I think you missed the day it jumped from 32 to 57. I agree that jump looks odd, but it did per my source shown above. Except for that day, the curve is a lot flatter.

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Buck Compton
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In reply to buda91 • 8:31a, 4/2/20
AG
Yeah, I completely grossed over that, but that screams bad data (not necessarily that data point, just in general), not exponential jump
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TRADUCTOR
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In reply to JB99 • 9:18a, 4/2/20
JB99 said:
Has anyone seen any models showing predictions for Texas?

Do we know when it's supposed to peak? How many deaths per day at the peak?

What's the estimated range for deaths and over what time period?

Are there estimates for infections and hospitalizations as well?


They will show mainly a risk problem for the >70yo
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Teddy Perkins
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In reply to JB99 • 10:04a, 4/2/20
AG
JB99 said:
Has anyone seen any models showing predictions for Texas?

Do we know when it's supposed to peak? How many deaths per day at the peak?

What's the estimated range for deaths and over what time period?

Are there estimates for infections and hospitalizations as well?
Resource from Rice that tracks the number of people tested across the state, current hospital bed utilization rate and the numbers of staffed beds and intensive care beds in Texas hospitals.

https://www.coronavirusintexas.org/
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MTVs Celebrity Deathmatch
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10:16a, 4/2/20
AG
I can speak for central texas. Hospital systems here are expecting the surge to start in 10 to 18 days. The hospitals are fearful of what could be coming. Hopefully, we are all social distancing enough to not let those fears come true
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TRADUCTOR
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In reply to MTVs Celebrity Deathmatch • 10:43a, 4/2/20
cityagboy said:
I can speak for central texas. Hospital systems here are expecting the surge to start in 10 to 18 days. The hospitals are fearful of what could be coming. Hopefully, we are all social distancing enough to not let those fears come true


Hospitals not fearful joker.
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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11:16a, 4/2/20
AG
I don't understand the listed parameters. It says "stay at home order" not implemented and non-essential services closed not implemented. I thought we had stay at home across most of the state, at least all the major cities and we have a lot of non essential businesses shut down.
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Pasquale Liucci
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In reply to Tony Franklins Other Shoe • 11:20a, 4/2/20
AG
I think the deal is that it's not an official state wide edict but has been implemented by municipalities. No blanket order = not accounted for in model
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aginlakeway
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11:24a, 4/2/20
AG
This thread title would have led to MUCH different posts a month ago ...
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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In reply to Pasquale Liucci • 11:28a, 4/2/20
AG
So does it not take in to account that say 40-60% of the state is essentially doing it? Just wondering.
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Buck Compton
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In reply to Tony Franklins Other Shoe • 11:33a, 4/2/20
AG
Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:
So does it not take in to account that say 40-60% of the state is essentially doing it? Just wondering.
No, it doesn't. It's oversimplified. It's even more than 60%, too. Look at the major population of Texas, it's all under essential business only, stay at home orders. It's probably 80+% of our population
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nai06
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In reply to Buck Compton • 12:52p, 4/2/20
AG
Buck Compton said:
Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:
So does it not take in to account that say 40-60% of the state is essentially doing it? Just wondering.
No, it doesn't. It's oversimplified. It's even more than 60%, too. Look at the major population of Texas, it's all under essential business only, stay at home orders. It's probably 80+% of our population
Right but have you looked at the list of essential businesses and activities?

Tons of places are still open and people are going to them. Drive by any Home Depot or Lowes and that parking lots are packed. Even car dealerships are open. Its pretty easy to justify something as an essential business and very few places are going to get challenged if they aren't.


That doesn't even cover the essential activities. You're movements aren't restricted as long as you stay 6ft away from someone.


It doesn't matter that 80% of the population is under shelter in place/stay at home orders if the majority of those people are ignoring it.
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MASAXET
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In reply to Buck Compton • 1:40p, 4/2/20
AG
Buck Compton said:
Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:
So does it not take in to account that say 40-60% of the state is essentially doing it? Just wondering.
No, it doesn't. It's oversimplified. It's even more than 60%, too. Look at the major population of Texas, it's all under essential business only, stay at home orders. It's probably 80+% of our population
I don't think that's accurate. The website gives the info re: state parameters, but the actual models are based upon the assumption of social distancing measures in effect universally. At least that's how I have heard the doctors form IHME explain it during interviews. I believe it's also why this is plastered across the top:

Quote:
COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020
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buda91
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1:53p, 4/2/20
AG
First case in my county today. Lee County (Giddings)
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JeepWaveEarl
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2:39p, 4/2/20
AG
Models group I found https://www.facebook.com/groups/158015618707622/
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