nai06 said:

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Buck Compton said:

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Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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So does it not take in to account that say 40-60% of the state is essentially doing it? Just wondering.

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No, it doesn't. It's oversimplified. It's even more than 60%, too. Look at the major population of Texas, it's all under essential business only, stay at home orders. It's probably 80+% of our population

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Right but have you looked at the list of essential businesses and activities?

Tons of places are still open and people are going to them. Drive by any Home Depot or Lowes and that parking lots are packed. Even car dealerships are open. Its pretty easy to justify something as an essential business and very few places are going to get challenged if they aren't.


That doesn't even cover the essential activities. You're movements aren't restricted as long as you stay 6ft away from someone.


It doesn't matter that 80% of the population is under shelter in place/stay at home orders if the majority of those people are ignoring it.

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Maybe different areas would look differently but every place I go, which is very few the last three weeks, looks like a ghost town. I was in Costco earlier this week and have never seen fewer people in a Costco.

God Bless You!!!

Ditto in Montgomery County. I'd estimate 70% of the storefronts are open. Jmo, people have a false sense of security because the reported rates are relatively low in Texas when it's really that our curve started later and also we have not done the testing quantity that some other places have done until the last several days. Our projected peak for state deaths isn't until May 6 according to one model I saw. By comparison Louisiana peak is projected on April 9.

Feel like we should get some Texas Theta pics in here to cover the "models", and also the people responsible for the coming **** storm.

Cumulative deaths in Texas still continuing to follow the Doubling-every-3-days line:

Cumulative deaths 24mar to 3apr
12
17
23
24
26
32
57
60
69
97
115

Fitch said:

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https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

You can change the selection to Texas or other states or the US overall. This is the model the federal task force has mentioned on TV a few times now. It is revised daily with actuals, so it does shift around.

Currently looking at a peak in early May, with +/- 150 deaths a day. Total fatalities for the state are projected around 6,100 Texans.

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That is the University of Washington research database. I have followed them and the good news is that peak demand on the health care system has actually been advanced by a few days and the state data looks good in those areas where the preventive protocols are being followed. Actually better now than a week ago, so there is hope. Mask usage in public venues could make this a lot better.

Cumulative deaths in Texas is maybe dipping below the Doubling-every-3-days line. But we're still following the basic US trend towards 10,000 Texas deaths in the next 2-3 weeks. I hope the trend line continues to dip. I'm encouraged that our number of new Texas cases seems to be slowing.

Cumulative deaths 24mar to 6apr
per coronainUSA.com
Cum(daily)
12
17 (5)
23 (6)
24 (1)
26 (2)
32 (6)
57 (25)
60 (3)
69 (9)
97 (28)
115 (18)
133 (18)
152 (19)
164 (12)

Old Buffalo said:

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buda91 said:

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Cumulative deaths in Texas is maybe dipping below the Doubling-every-3-days line. But we're still following the basic US trend towards 10,000 Texas deaths in the next 2-3 weeks.

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Nothing supports 10,000. Right now we're trending from 2.5 to 4 days.

NYC isn't even to 5,000 deaths yet.

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Not sure about NYC but New York as a state is over 5,500 deaths.

But it does appear that social distancing is starting to work and slow this thing down.

nai06 said:

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I suppose thats true.


Im in DFW and it really seems like certain places are packed. Freeways have less traffic, but lots of people are still out and about.

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The problem is that it's really impossible to quantify the % of those that are or are not going out and whether the reason is "essential" or not as there's no real way to test this. We all see people out. But it depends on what you see and how you interpret it. So there's an issue of confirmation bias here. For instance, yesterday I saw 2 boys playing together in our neighborhood. Not at all 6 feet apart. Obviously their parents are not taking this seriously. But, then one must consider a few things we don't know. Are they brothers? Live under the same roof? And just b/c people are at Home Depot and Lowe's doesn't mean they still aren't practicing social distancing. Are they wearing masks? And these are essential businesses. What if they had something that needs to be fixed in their homes. Our door lock finally broke so my wife pick up a new lock at Home Depot. Kinda need functioning door locks. Now that everyone is home, normal household things that typically don't get a lot of use break due to overuse. Toilets for instance. Those are essential too.

So maybe people are right and Americans are just not staying confined enough. Or maybe we start to look for things that confirms our bias about that. It's a very interesting question.

Flattening for several days in a row now. Good news. And it's been a week since the last doubling of confirmed cases so the next week or so looks better too. (I have this charted, but only on Luddite graph paper, and I'm too old and lazy to upload a picture of the graph)

Cumulative Texas deaths 24mar to 8apr
per coronainUSA.com
Cum(daily)
12
17 (5)
23 (6)
24 (1)
26 (2)
32 (6)
57 (25)
60 (3)
69 (9)
97 (28)
115 (18)
133 (18)
152 (19)
164 (12)
187 (23)
204 (17)

buda91 said:

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Flattening for several days in a row now. Good news. And it's been a week since the last doubling of confirmed cases so the next week or so looks better too. (I have this charted, but only on Luddite graph paper, and I'm too old and lazy to upload a picture of the graph)

Cumulative Texas deaths 24mar to 8apr
per coronainUSA.com
Cum(daily)
12
17 (5)
23 (6)
24 (1)
26 (2)
32 (6)
57 (25)
60 (3)
69 (9)
97 (28)
115 (18)
133 (18)
152 (19)
164 (12)
187 (23)
204 (17)

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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

cle96 said:

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Had an employee yesterday go to a free clinic in Houston yesterday for a CV test and they told her she would get the results in 2-3 Weeks.

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Will they bury her with the results?

cle96 said:

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Had an employee yesterday go to a free clinic in Houston yesterday for a CV test and they told her she would get the results in 2-3 Weeks.

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How serious are her symptoms?

Still flattening. Generally positive news several days. Still, people dying, so that's not good for them or family or friends. (I have this charted, but only on Luddite graph paper, and I'm too old and lazy to upload a picture of the graph)

Cumulative Texas deaths 24mar to 12apr
per coronainUSA.com
Cum(daily)
24mar: 12
17 (5)
23 (6)
24 (1)
26 (2)
32 (6)
57 (25)
31mar: 60 (3)
1apr: 69 (9)
97 (28)
115 (18)
133 (18)
152 (19)
164 (12)
187 (23)
8apr: 204 (17)
243 (39)
259 (16)
285 (26)
307 (22)

My source showed a big spike in Texas deaths today. 81 deaths today. Anyone else seeing that? Any explanations? Hopefully just an outlier day. There was also a big spike in new cases (about 15,000 to about 18,000).

buda91 said:

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My source showed a big spike in Texas deaths today. 81 deaths today. Anyone else seeing that? Any explanations? Hopefully just an outlier day. There was also a big spike in new cases (about 15,000 to about 18,000).

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Haven't most people been saying for awhile that we were 2 to 3 weeks away from a peak in Texas? Maybe we are just approaching that peak.

buda91 said:

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My source showed a big spike in Texas deaths today. 81 deaths today. Anyone else seeing that? Any explanations? Hopefully just an outlier day. There was also a big spike in new cases (about 15,000 to about 18,000).

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I'm questioning your source and those numbers. For yesterday Texas reported 736 new cases and 50 deaths (our worst day yet).

The tally I'm seeing for today currently is +94/+5. Texas only has 15k postiive cases (48th in testing per capita, baby!) 15k-18k new cases would double that.

Edit: maybe you're saying 3k new cases to bring us to 18k. That'd still be a pretty significant spike and I'd wonder what happened with the tests backlog to allow that to happen.

Player To Be Named Later said:

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Seems to me we all have heard how damn hard it was for people to get tested. Maybe that's changed, but I doubt it.

For the most part, people were basically being told "good luck, stay home unless you're dying, then you can come to the hospital"

Let's not pretend we were doing a great job of testing.

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I don't have enough information to know if we are or are not doing a good job. So I'm not pretending to know anything.

I know 5 people in Austin area in the last week who got texted away from hospital. Results next morning. All negative.

We don't know what all these mean. Other than the deaths. Death occurs with or without tests.

aginlakeway said:

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Player To Be Named Later said:

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Mordred said:

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buda91 said:

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My source showed a big spike in Texas deaths today. 81 deaths today. Anyone else seeing that? Any explanations? Hopefully just an outlier day. There was also a big spike in new cases (about 15,000 to about 18,000).

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Texas only has 15k postiive cases (48th in testing per capita, baby!)

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I hope that when Abbott comes out with his proposed re-opening plans that he doesn't try to give ourselves credit for having low cases. Any claim about that number sure rings hollow when considering our testing.

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How do you know that our testing isn't low because fewer people think they need to get tested?

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I think a number of people fall in the "why bother getting tested if they can't do anything for me?

If I was getting sick, I wouldn't bother going to get tested. If I am not below 93% o2 Sat why risk going on to get tested?

Best case I'm negative but now I am worried that I picked something up going to get tested. Worse case, I am told to go home and wait it out until I have to go on to the icu.

I live in Austin and my wife and brother in law both had no issues getting tested. They both tested positive. I am 95% certain I had it as well and did not get tested by my own choice. It wasn't going to change anything for me as we were all lucky and had mild symptoms. My doctor offered to test me but preferred I just stay at home since I was doing well.

jpistolero02 said:

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I live in Austin and my wife and brother in law both had no issues getting tested. They both tested positive. I am 95% certain I had it as well and did not get tested by my own choice. It wasn't going to change anything for me as we were all lucky and had mild symptoms. My doctor offered to test me but preferred I just stay at home since I was doing well.

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When was that? My wife couldn't get a test 3 weeks ago despite having some of the symptoms (good thing too since I'm convinced she didn't need one).

How mild were yalls symptoms? Is that mild in the clinical sense or in the layperson sense?

So we have been running at 11% positive for the past week. Steady.

2 weeks ago we were at 10% positive.