So from April 14 to April 15 is biggest one-day death jump?
Models for Texas
20,915 Views |
88 Replies |
Last: 5 yr ago by DTP02
Player To Be Named Later
Joined:
Sep 22, 2003
Posts:
23,250
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
How do we factor in that most have believed this test produces up to a 30% false negative? If that is actually the case, then we aren't running 10% positive or even close to it.
covid accounts for 375 of the 59,195 deaths in Texas so far in 2020
Son of a....Gap said:
covid accounts for 375 of the 59,195 deaths in Texas so far in 2020
Better add another month of lockdown
I wanna hit some folks over the head with that stat. Got a link to it?Gap said:
covid accounts for 375 of the 59,195 deaths in Texas so far in 2020
Both will constantly update:TxFoundry said:I wanna hit some folks over the head with that stat. Got a link to it?Gap said:
covid accounts for 375 of the 59,195 deaths in Texas so far in 2020
now it is 393 of 59,229
covid deaths - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
total Texas deaths - https://www.indexmundi.com/clocks/indicator/deaths/united-states
They were tested over two weeks ago and had symptoms for about a week before that.
My BIL lost taste for 4 days and that's all he had. My wife and I both had coughs for about two weeks along with headaches and very mild fevers for the first week. I have definitely had a rougher time with the flu. I am by no means trying to minimize this virus, just providing our examples.
Understood. Just trying to collect some points of reference since there has been a large emphasis on the "mild" cases being mild in the clinical sense - aka you feel like you are on your deathbed from fever and aches but don't require hospitalization
I would definitely say our symptoms were more annoying than anything. I did have one day of feeling like I needed to throw up most of the day but just couldn't. The hacking cough was the worst part. My wife had a day very early on where she was extremely tired. By my standards pretty mild all in all. Definitely didn't have issues breathing or heavy feeling on our chest.
I guess since NY is doing better, they see no reason to update the data. Last update 4/13.Fitch said:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
You can change the selection to Texas or other states or the US overall. This is the model the federal task force has mentioned on TV a few times now. It is revised daily with actuals, so it does shift around.
Currently looking at a peak in early May, with +/- 150 deaths a day. Total fatalities for the state are projected around 6,100 Texans.
They update it every 2-3 days.
tamc93
Joined:
Jul 25, 2013
Posts:
5,137
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Gap said:
covid accounts for 375 of the 59,195 deaths in Texas so far in 2020
Taking this seriously has worked! Good job Texas. Now we can work on (carefully) starting people back to work so we don't ruin what we've got going.
Why didn't you want to be tested like they were, at least to know with 100% certainty "you had it" and you can move on and not be worried for future issues?jpistolero02 said:
My BIL lost taste for 4 days and that's all he had. My wife and I both had coughs for about two weeks along with headaches and very mild fevers for the first week. I have definitely had a rougher time with the flu. I am by no means trying to minimize this virus, just providing our examples.
GPS data has some serious flaws for rural America. Works great for urban Americans who basically go from traveling all over to go to lunch/dinner/work/entertainment to stay at home get everything delivered.PJYoung said:
Now consider your typical farmer/rancher that lives miles outside of a small town with a small grocery store. They aren't getting food delivered and are still having to go into town for the groceries. Before COVID19, they would drive 30 minutes into town, make a few stops, grab lunch at the local diner, and the grab their groceries and head home. Now, they drive 30 min into town and grab their groceries and head home. No real change in their travel pattern even with increased social distancing. And what happens if they have to make a more frequent trips to the store because the store was out of something that day, or the store is limiting how much of an item you can purchase.
I don't have a better solution, just pointing out some potential issues with a model based on GPS data. It will be interesting to see if the UT group updates their model like the IHME folks did bringing the peak date drastically forward.
I guess looking back I probably should have because maybe I could have helped by donating plasma. At the time they weren't really talking about that. At this point, I will need to wait for some sort of antibody test.
Their predictions, which assumed current social distancing, are now less than 1,000. These BS models drove hysterical overreactions.Fitch said:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
You can change the selection to Texas or other states or the US overall. This is the model the federal task force has mentioned on TV a few times now. It is revised daily with actuals, so it does shift around.
Currently looking at a peak in early May, with +/- 150 deaths a day. Total fatalities for the state are projected around 6,100 Texans.
NicosMachine said:Their predictions, which assumed current social distancing, are now less than 1,000. These BS models drove hysterical overreactions.Fitch said:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
You can change the selection to Texas or other states or the US overall. This is the model the federal task force has mentioned on TV a few times now. It is revised daily with actuals, so it does shift around.
Currently looking at a peak in early May, with +/- 150 deaths a day. Total fatalities for the state are projected around 6,100 Texans.
The models have definitely driven overreactions. The inability of healthcare and political leaders to anticipate which areas and populations were especially vulnerable and move quickly and strongly to protect, and the inability of those same people to differentiate which areas and populations were not nearly as risk and apply a different standard of response, has caused some huge missteps. I'm looking particularly at NY officials' inexorably slow reactions and the subsequent overreactions in many places to what's going on in NY.
But those models now also will work to make people under react to the threat upon loosening. We are going to change the game when we loosen things back up and the models are going to cause overconfidence going into that loosening.
Featured Stories
See All
44:52
15h ago
3.7k
The Loochador Podcast: Spring practice starts on Friday
by Billy Liucci
McMillan's vision comes to fruition with NCAA Tournament inclusion
by Olin Buchanan
Baseball Thoughts: Different questions pop up during Norman trip
by Ryan Brauninger
Five in Five: Offseason intel as spring ball begins
by Billy Liucci
Former A&M wideout Christian Kirk signs with San Francisco
by Richard Zane