Yes. Everyone is aware that social distancing is working and is dramatically effecting the models.

That in no way means that this is close to over with or that everything can return to normal by the end of april

Good news.

Distancing= viable virus falling to ground in droplets and dying before it can reach another human host and propagate.

I would keep this going until the end of May and insure recovery of the country's economy by avoiding a resurgence of the pandemic.

Very pleased. But social distancing isn't the long-term solution.

Plan to reopen the economy needs to be well thought-out to keep the numbers at a manageable level. We know we aren't going to eliminate this thing. Just give healthcare workers enough PPE and let's get the testing better, both antibody and acute. Still need to figure out a manageable treatment protocol for people with symptoms so they don't need to go to the hospital.

Any excitment I might have about how well this is going is tempered by my fear of that the "see the fact that this wasn't so bad (because we took such drastic actions) shows that the drastic actions we took weren't needed, so every rush back to work/church/restaurants/schools" win and the bodies start piling up in June/August

Very positive new data coming out of South Korea.

Duncan Idaho said:

---

Any excitment I might have about how well this is going is tempered by my fear of that the "see the fact that this wasn't so bad (because we took such drastic actions) shows that the drastic actions we took weren't needed, so every rush back to work/church/restaurants/schools" win and the bodies start piling up in June/August

---

Let's keep all the shelters-in-place going for at least 6 more months. 30% unemployment and a likely depression are just fine. It's just money, right?

UTExan said:

---

Good news.

Distancing= viable virus falling to ground in droplets and dying before it can reach another human host and propagate.

I would keep this going until the end of May and insure recovery of the country's economy by avoiding a resurgence of the pandemic.

---

I'm with you through the end of April. I just can't see a reason why or national support for this shutdown through May.

My parents were super worried - they post on and read these forums daily. They updated their will and were sure I had a copy... they're planning on not attending our wedding next week in person. They taken this as serious as anyone I know.

Even they are ready for this thing open up with these new projections. I mean we all know they're not going to risk coming in low so I'd say that these are probably still on the high end.

Duncan Idaho said:

---

Any excitment I might have about how well this is going is tempered by my fear of that the "see the fact that this wasn't so bad (because we took such drastic actions) shows that the drastic actions we took weren't needed, so every rush back to work/church/restaurants/schools" win and the bodies start piling up in June/August

---

The fear you have is exactly what would happen if we let loose without restrictions. The reality is we are going to be living under a restricted lifestyle until we develop a cure or reach herd immunity. I don't believe the reality has set in for many Americans.

All this talk about "opening the economy" will not mean much when a lot of people will still be afraid to leave their homes.

I agree you have to love the numbers.

Just wish those things were the headline and not buried behind all the hype.

AggieAuditor said:

---

Duncan Idaho said:

---

Any excitment I might have about how well this is going is tempered by my fear of that the "see the fact that this wasn't so bad (because we took such drastic actions) shows that the drastic actions we took weren't needed, so every rush back to work/church/restaurants/schools" win and the bodies start piling up in June/August

---

Let's keep all the shelters-in-place going for at least 6 more months. 30% unemployment and a likely depression are just fine. It's just money, right?

---

Or let's slowly and methodically open the economy in line with testing, tracking, face masks and enforced quarantine for identified carriers.

74OA said:

---

Here you go.........

---

Thanks - know that thread but I mean it's got like 300 replies in a month. Not exactly a bunch of high fiving like I would expect.


I mean how many hundreds of thumbs up do we get on the premium forum (behind a pay wall) when we get a 4 star out of state recruit.

We're literally talking about hundreds of thousands of people not project to die.

El Hombre Mas Guapo said:

---

Duncan Idaho said:

---

Yes. Everyone is aware that social distancing is working and is dramatically effecting the models.

That in no way means that this is close to over with or that everything can return to normal by the end of april

---

I'm not an expert here, but I was pretty sure that they included social distancing guideline assumptions in these projections originally.

But not trying to point fingers on this thread.


I'm just wondering where the party is at because it's apparent now that this isn't the Black death we were afraid of.

---

The shelter in place restrictions are working, which is clearly much better than them not working.

But it's been accomplished at tremendous cost, and the concern is clearly how do we strike the balance between returning to some semblance of normalcy and keeping the contagion from spreading into a wildfire in future waves. This isn't a one time thing; all we've done at this point is survive the initial onslaught.

We have to use this next several weeks to have every community put a testing and tracing regimen in place which will hopefully allow the community to keep the infection rate at a simmer instead of a rolling boil. If we can establish a treatment protocol that would allows us to reduce the severity of infection then we would really have something to be excited about.

You seem to be thinking we should be spiking to football, while the best we can realistically hope for by May 1 is to have established an uneasy truce with the virus that could erupt at any minute.

Duncan Idaho said:

---

AggieAuditor said:

---

Duncan Idaho said:

---

Any excitment I might have about how well this is going is tempered by my fear of that the "see the fact that this wasn't so bad (because we took such drastic actions) shows that the drastic actions we took weren't needed, so every rush back to work/church/restaurants/schools" win and the bodies start piling up in June/August

---

Let's keep all the shelters-in-place going for at least 6 more months. 30% unemployment and a likely depression are just fine. It's just money, right?

---

Or let's slowly and methodically open the economy in line with testing, tracking, face masks and enforced quarantine for identified carriers.

---

That's the right way to look at it I think. But I think we need to start that process on a county by county basis (not sure how to encourage this) in May.

For instance, hospitals that are empty can start having those necessary 'elective' surgeries at hospitals that are empty or have low risk of an upcoming surge. No need to start laying off medical staff etc over the next few months because we lock it down for another 6 mos.

I don't understand what you are wanting to see?

Yes people are happy that the worse case/highest boundary of the projected deaths haven't come to fruition.

That is a long way from " a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero,"

A shift in the overton window on this thing isn't cause for champagne and fireworks.

0 deaths
Just a the flu
Just a bad flu
At least 200,000 people aren't dying.

Duncan Idaho said:

---

I don't understand what you are wanting to see?

Yes people are happy that the worse case/highest boundary of the projected deaths haven't come to fruition.

That is a long way from " a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero,"

A shift in the overton window on this thing isn't cause for champagne and fireworks.

0 deaths
Just a the flu
Just a bad flu
At least 200,000 people aren't dying.

---

I mean if the current projections hold true, it will in effect, be a bad flu... That's not need for fireworks and champagne then idk what to tell you.

I'll have yours if you don't want to participate.

El Hombre Mas Guapo said:

---

Duncan Idaho said:

---

I don't understand what you are wanting to see?

Yes people are happy that the worse case/highest boundary of the projected deaths haven't come to fruition.

That is a long way from " a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero,"

A shift in the overton window on this thing isn't cause for champagne and fireworks.

0 deaths
Just a the flu
Just a bad flu
At least 200,000 people aren't dying.

---

I mean if the current projections hold true, it will in effect, be a bad flu... That's not need for fireworks and champagne then idk what to tell you.

I'll have yours if you don't want to participate.

---

The current projections are based on people not being idiots and continuing to socially distance themselves after being told it is ok to go back to work.

I have been pretty consistent in my belief that we will get off too easy on this wave and be overwhelmed in the second wave soley because large cities and dense states acted promptly.

A look at the 1918 flu if you will

https://conceptdraw.com/a399c4/p1/preview/640/pict--line-chart-1918-spanish-flu-waves

Proposition Joe said:

---

Duncan Idaho said:

---

I don't understand what you are wanting to see?

---

I think most people could see it from the OP. It's relatively easy to see which posters have come in with an agenda and which actually want discussion.

---

You are right

that CFR is really not good news fwiw

Nice (not) subtle attempt to accuse people of cheering on the virus. Take it to forum 16.

Duncan Idaho said:

---

El Hombre Mas Guapo said:

---

Duncan Idaho said:

---

I don't understand what you are wanting to see?

Yes people are happy that the worse case/highest boundary of the projected deaths haven't come to fruition.

That is a long way from " a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero,"

A shift in the overton window on this thing isn't cause for champagne and fireworks.

0 deaths
Just a the flu
Just a bad flu
At least 200,000 people aren't dying.

---

I mean if the current projections hold true, it will in effect, be a bad flu... That's not need for fireworks and champagne then idk what to tell you.

I'll have yours if you don't want to participate.

---

The current projections are based on people not being idiots and continuing to socially distance themselves after being told it is ok to go back to work.

I have been pretty consistent in my belief that we will get off too easy on this wave and be overwhelmed in the second wave soley because large cities and dense states acted promptly.

A look at the 1918 flu if you will

https://conceptdraw.com/a399c4/p1/preview/640/pict--line-chart-1918-spanish-flu-waves

---

Where in any of my posts did I say I want people to act like idiots?

Our current social distancing guidelines allow everyone in the neighborhood to go to the grocery store every day and only recently said to add a mask. Why can't the same people go to their offices, jobsites, or what have you while obviously adhering to those guidelines (wearing mask, 6 foot distancing, no hand shaking, hand washing, staying home if sick or immunization compromised.

Ive seen that 1918 graph - we also didn't know what a virus was in 1918.

I'm trying to have a serious discussion about why we aren't celebrating the good news of TODAY. Is your position we can't do that because of 1918?

I didn't know it was a bad thing to celebrate the successes we've made so far.

good news

social distancing works
hospitals didn't get overrun in most cities
bought time for mobilization efforts

bad news

our younger cohort is much more likely to die than projections from other countries
our testing capacity isn't close to what you need for surveillance
total infected as part of the local population is likely low single digits, will need to be 10x that at least for herd immunity

first mile of the marathon is behind us

Dr.HeadCase said:

---

Nice (not) subtle attempt to accuse people of cheering on the virus. Take it to forum 16.

---

I'm sorry I thought this was America. Can we not celebrate the successes of our professionals in lowering the projected impact of COVID (on this forum)?

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

Duncan Idaho said:

---

I don't understand what you are wanting to see?

Yes people are happy that the worse case/highest boundary of the projected deaths haven't come to fruition.

That is a long way from " a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero,"

A shift in the overton window on this thing isn't cause for champagne and fireworks.

0 deaths
Just a the flu
Just a bad flu
At least 200,000 people aren't dying.

---

I disagree completely. Original projections were over 2 million dead in the US and now we're looking at a worst case in the 200k-ish range. That's friggin great. People are responding and doing the right thing, if reluctantly.

if you do massive surveillance like the Korean's then CFR almost can be considered IFR

IFR is very relevant

antibody test is the true dataset, but Korea's surveillance is close if you don't think they had a bunch of false negatives