Fight against COVID going better than planned

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El Hombre Mas Guapo
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In reply to cone • 12:41p, 4/9/20
AG
cone said:
good news

social distancing works
hospitals didn't get overrun in most cities
bought time for mobilization efforts

bad news

our younger cohort is much more likely to die than projections from other countries
our testing capacity isn't close to what you need for surveillance
total infected as part of the local population is likely low single digits, will need to be 10x that at least for herd immunity

first mile of the marathon is behind us


Just haven't heard much cheer - I'd say the three points you made above outweigh the negatives you listed below.

Who needs to test everyone when the hospitals didn't get overrun? Who needs heard immunity (and I think your estimate is grossly understated) when the death rate is half that of the seasonal flu?

Why can't we focus on the positives you listed - which are huge accomplishments vs three weeks ago when we were told we had to pick tens of thousands of Americans to die...
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El Hombre Mas Guapo
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 12:44p, 4/9/20
AG
Proposition Joe said:
Duncan Idaho said:
I don't understand what you are wanting to see?

I think most people could see it from the OP. It's relatively easy to see which posters have come in with an agenda and which actually want discussion.


And what exactly would you say you added to the discussion Joe? Flagged.

Don't try to derail the thread. Thx
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agforlife97
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In reply to ETFan • 12:45p, 4/9/20
AG
ETFan said:
agforlife97 said:
cone said:
that CFR is really not good news fwiw
0.04% mortality rate for all cases means it's half as deadly as seasonal flu. Not really sure why people think CFR is so relevant.


It's nearly 2%.

Edit, sorry for redundancy, thread is moving quickly .
Again I did mess that up my bad. But CFR is not the real mortality rate. Nobody seems to be getting that. We don't know the denominator (actual number of cases), and chances are the true death rate is pretty low. I don't understand why countries that have large numbers of tests available aren't taking random samples of the general population in order to estimate the true denominator. I mean we as a nation can do this daily for political polls.
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cone
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In reply to El Hombre Mas Guapo • 12:46p, 4/9/20
AG
Quote:
Who needs to test everyone when the hospitals didn't get overrun?


you need surveillance testing to open up the economy

so you can avoid the hospital overload while having a semblance of economic activity

I just think you don't realize how few people have been infected so far, thankfully
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agforlife97
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In reply to cone • 12:47p, 4/9/20
AG
cone said:
Quote:
Who needs to test everyone when the hospitals didn't get overrun?


you need surveillance testing to open up the economy

so you can avoid the hospital overload while having a semblance of economic activity

I just think you don't realize how few people have been infected so far, thankfully
We may be about to bankrupt the hospital system in the entire US, since most of them are totally empty right now.
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cone
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In reply to agforlife97 • 12:49p, 4/9/20
AG
yes this whole thing sucks
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ETFan
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In reply to agforlife97 • 12:49p, 4/9/20
agforlife97 said:
cone said:
Quote:
Who needs to test everyone when the hospitals didn't get overrun?


you need surveillance testing to open up the economy

so you can avoid the hospital overload while having a semblance of economic activity

I just think you don't realize how few people have been infected so far, thankfully
We may be about to bankrupt the hospital system in the entire US, since most of them are totally empty right now.
Yep, that's why we need the testing.
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Dr.HeadCase
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12:50p, 4/9/20
AG
Why should we be 'cheery'? Thousands of people are still dying every day and will continue to do so for a while even with these extreme measures. How about relieved but still concerned? Is that enough for you? The war is far from over.
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TheAngelFlight
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In reply to El Hombre Mas Guapo • 12:50p, 4/9/20
El Hombre Mas Guapo said:
Proposition Joe said:
Duncan Idaho said:
I don't understand what you are wanting to see?

I think most people could see it from the OP. It's relatively easy to see which posters have come in with an agenda and which actually want discussion.
And what exactly would you say you added to the discussion Joe? Flagged.

Don't try to derail the thread. Thx
You start a troll thread, you get push back. That's the way life works.
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El Hombre Mas Guapo
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In reply to cone • 12:51p, 4/9/20
AG
cone said:
yes this whole thing sucks


Agreed but I was thinking the infected rate was way higher. Did I miss something?

I agree we need to see who has it ASAP w random testing regimens.
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El Hombre Mas Guapo
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In reply to Dr.HeadCase • 12:56p, 4/9/20
AG
Dr.HeadCase said:
Why should we be 'cheery'? Thousands of people are still dying every day and will continue to do so for a while even with these extreme measures. How about relieved but still concerned? Is that enough for you? The war is far from over.



Sorry, totally forgot about all the shaming that happened when people cheered on VE day because the Pacific theater was 'far from over'

I'm just trying to understand why we can't have some positive hype also?

Good news! Country isn't going to collapse because of the virus. My grandparents probably won't die from this.

You people are being ridiculous.

When can we celebrate? When 0 people die in the US? What about the people in other countries? Hold your applause until 0 deaths globally? Until we find a vaccine?

You tell me when it's okay to acknowledge the positives.
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cone
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In reply to El Hombre Mas Guapo • 1:00p, 4/9/20
AG
it could be higher, but right now we're at about 0.15% of the population confirmed

say the true number is ten times that amount. so we're still 5% of the way to a herd immunity, at the low end of the herd immunity estimate

and this thing is grinding up working age people in our cohort, so we seem to have much more susceptibility to death in our herd
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LEJ
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1:07p, 4/9/20
It's ok (and necessary) to have a positive outlook for the future based on current info.
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DTP02
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In reply to El Hombre Mas Guapo • 1:11p, 4/9/20
AG
El Hombre Mas Guapo said:
cone said:
good news

social distancing works
hospitals didn't get overrun in most cities
bought time for mobilization efforts

bad news

our younger cohort is much more likely to die than projections from other countries
our testing capacity isn't close to what you need for surveillance
total infected as part of the local population is likely low single digits, will need to be 10x that at least for herd immunity

first mile of the marathon is behind us


Just haven't heard much cheer - I'd say the three points you made above outweigh the negatives you listed below.

Who needs to test everyone when the hospitals didn't get overrun? Who needs heard immunity (and I think your estimate is grossly understated) when the death rate is half that of the seasonal flu?

Why can't we focus on the positives you listed - which are huge accomplishments vs three weeks ago when we were told we had to pick tens of thousands of Americans to die...


You understand that the actions we've taken to achieve these results are untenable as a longterm plan, right?

I'm relieved that the actions are working, but I also assumed they would and all it's really accomplished is buying time. Our ability to successfully use that time to put things in place to allow a loosening of restrictions in the near future is where the first victory lies. And we won't know whether we've used that time well enough until we actually loosen restrictions and can keep infection spread to a reasonable level without having to go on another 6-week lockdown.

Ultimate victory will come from a widespread effective treatment and/or vaccination.
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CT75
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1:13p, 4/9/20
AG
OP....if the truth be told (and some will probably consider this political but it's closer to reality) we won't start celebrating much until the MSM tells us we can. Sad but true.
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SmackDaddy
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1:14p, 4/9/20
AG
New York is going to start to re-open next month, just wait. Stay apart, wear masks and compromised stay home.

"How few people have been infected?" Nobody knows how many have been infected but I'd guarantee it's many multiples of 400k.
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PJYoung
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In reply to El Hombre Mas Guapo • 1:15p, 4/9/20
AG
El Hombre Mas Guapo said:
cone said:
good news

social distancing works
hospitals didn't get overrun in most cities
bought time for mobilization efforts

bad news

our younger cohort is much more likely to die than projections from other countries
our testing capacity isn't close to what you need for surveillance
total infected as part of the local population is likely low single digits, will need to be 10x that at least for herd immunity

first mile of the marathon is behind us


Just haven't heard much cheer - I'd say the three points you made above outweigh the negatives you listed below.

Who needs to test everyone when the hospitals didn't get overrun? Who needs heard immunity (and I think your estimate is grossly understated) when the death rate is half that of the seasonal flu?

Why can't we focus on the positives you listed - which are huge accomplishments vs three weeks ago when we were told we had to pick tens of thousands of Americans to die...

I've seen a marked change on here as the outlook has drastically improved for the United States.

Today I was excited to hear Bill Gates talk about the very real possibilities of the antibody treatments to be a game changer since they will be out quickly and then felt a little bit depressed when he said 4-6 months. He personally thinks we will be mostly shutdown thru May. Which again, is not what I wanted to hear. At all. Dealing with the next stage as we slowly open back up will be tricky but so far things have gone quite well for us totally botching the initial testing/containment phase.

Personally for me I will consider this thing on the way to over if we can watch college football this fall. I have no idea how realistic that is at present but it feels like a long shot.

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AggieOO
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In reply to SmackDaddy • 1:16p, 4/9/20
Freeze Frame said:
New York is going to start to re-open next month, just wait. Stay apart, wear masks and compromised stay home.

"How few people have been infected?" Nobody knows how many have been infected but I'd guarantee it's many multiples of 400k.
have you ever been to NYC? This isn't possible without people staying home.
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ClickClack
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1:16p, 4/9/20
AG
This board thrives on this stuff. No shock here. Of course, I think that was the point of the OP.

I would think this board would be more balanced but in typical texags (internet?) fashion, groupthink has to dominate each board, and this one has swayed the way of being overzealous and hyper. And if you don't agree, you're not welcome here. No dissenting opinions allowed.
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tysker
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In reply to AggieOO • 1:28p, 4/9/20
AG
AggieOO said:
Freeze Frame said:
New York is going to start to re-open next month, just wait. Stay apart, wear masks and compromised stay home.

"How few people have been infected?" Nobody knows how many have been infected but I'd guarantee it's many multiples of 400k.
have you ever been to NYC? This isn't possible without people staying home.
Ya it would require lots of waiting for elevators. Which then results in large bunches of people...
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SmackDaddy
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In reply to AggieOO • 1:30p, 4/9/20
AG
AggieOO said:
Freeze Frame said:
New York is going to start to re-open next month, just wait. Stay apart, wear masks and compromised stay home.

"How few people have been infected?" Nobody knows how many have been infected but I'd guarantee it's many multiples of 400k.
have you ever been to NYC? This isn't possible without people staying home.


I lived there for 5 years. Obviously 6 feet isn't doable but people don't have to be on top of everyone else. Cuomo knows NY state was already bankrupt...he didn't want to shut down in the first place. If the decrease is sustained he'll reopen but in stages and won't announce until late April to get people to stay home now.
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pocketrockets06
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In reply to agforlife97 • 1:31p, 4/9/20
AG
South Korea has tested a high percentage of their population and has a robust tracing and tracking system. They also have a healthy population. They know the denominator and it puts their CFR at a little less than 2%. That's still really bad compared to any of the diseases Americans have dealt with since roughly 1918. Relieved that the first wave of deaths will be lower than many projected but we should still be concerned for the potential for it to explode.

This thread explains it in a relatively non technical way.



Basically pandemics don't have a middle ground because of the logistic curve that they grow by. You either end up with a small percentage of the population infected with strong interventions or you lose control and it explodes through the whole population. So far we seem to be on the low end of that (good) - it remains to be seen if we can walk that tightrope until we get a vaccine or we lose control and herd immunity stops transmission (very bad at a 2% CFR).
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AggieOO
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In reply to tysker • 1:33p, 4/9/20
tysker said:
AggieOO said:
Freeze Frame said:
New York is going to start to re-open next month, just wait. Stay apart, wear masks and compromised stay home.

"How few people have been infected?" Nobody knows how many have been infected but I'd guarantee it's many multiples of 400k.
have you ever been to NYC? This isn't possible without people staying home.
Ya it would require lots of waiting for elevators. Which then results in large bunches of people...
that's just one, small example.

I rode the subway to work (and most other places) for 7 years. The subway cars are never empty unless its 3 am, the air conditioner in the car is out, or there's a homeless guy masturbating. And even in the last example, it probably only clears out about a 1/4 of the car.

Just walking down the street in midtown would be impossible to stay 6 feet from others. Hell, it'd be hard in a lot of other areas, and not just in manhattan.

Staying away from people in NYC is not feasible if the city is even partially opened.
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AggieOO
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In reply to SmackDaddy • 1:36p, 4/9/20
Freeze Frame said:
AggieOO said:
Freeze Frame said:
New York is going to start to re-open next month, just wait. Stay apart, wear masks and compromised stay home.

"How few people have been infected?" Nobody knows how many have been infected but I'd guarantee it's many multiples of 400k.
have you ever been to NYC? This isn't possible without people staying home.


I lived there for 5 years. Obviously 6 feet isn't doable but people don't have to be on top of everyone else. Cuomo knows NY state was already bankrupt...he didn't want to shut down in the first place. If the decrease is sustained he'll reopen but in stages and won't announce until late April to get people to stay home now.
Take the ACE from 59th street to West 4th during rush hour and let me know how that works out for you.
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El Hombre Mas Guapo
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In reply to DTP02 • 1:43p, 4/9/20
AG
DTP02 said:
El Hombre Mas Guapo said:
cone said:
good news

social distancing works
hospitals didn't get overrun in most cities
bought time for mobilization efforts

bad news

our younger cohort is much more likely to die than projections from other countries
our testing capacity isn't close to what you need for surveillance
total infected as part of the local population is likely low single digits, will need to be 10x that at least for herd immunity

first mile of the marathon is behind us


Just haven't heard much cheer - I'd say the three points you made above outweigh the negatives you listed below.

Who needs to test everyone when the hospitals didn't get overrun? Who needs heard immunity (and I think your estimate is grossly understated) when the death rate is half that of the seasonal flu?

Why can't we focus on the positives you listed - which are huge accomplishments vs three weeks ago when we were told we had to pick tens of thousands of Americans to die...


You understand that the actions we've taken to achieve these results are untenable as a longterm plan, right?

I'm relieved that the actions are working, but I also assumed they would and all it's really accomplished is buying time. Our ability to successfully use that time to put things in place to allow a loosening of restrictions in the near future is where the first victory lies. And we won't know whether we've used that time well enough until we actually loosen restrictions and can keep infection spread to a reasonable level without having to go on another 6-week lockdown.

Ultimate victory will come from a widespread effective treatment and/or vaccination.


I agree - and I think the first victory is withstanding the initial wave without mass hysteria or the breakdown of the American medical system.

I'm only popin one bottle but I have a whole case over here to go through as we get there.
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tysker
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In reply to AggieOO • 1:44p, 4/9/20
AG
Quote:
And even in the last example, it probably only clears out about a 1/4 of the car.
That's only because you step onto the relatively empty car thinking this is my lucky day before you realize everyone is covering their nose and understand the mistake you've made. And before you can exit, the doors close and you're stuck but at least you might get a seat. Then you do the 'sitting vs. smell' calculations to the next stop while checking how crowded the next car is... Sometimes the suffering is worth a seat.. Ya been there done that
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Big Al 1992
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1:45p, 4/9/20
AG
It's gonna depends on what "open up" means. You're still going to need to hold off travel to and from China, Italy, India, Central America. Lots of hot spots with little to no testing. And unfortunately what is going on in Ecuador is deflating for all of us wanting heat and humid climates to kill this thing off.
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Pelayo
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In reply to agforlife97 • 1:46p, 4/9/20
AG
agforlife97 said:
ETFan said:
agforlife97 said:
cone said:
that CFR is really not good news fwiw
0.04% mortality rate for all cases means it's half as deadly as seasonal flu. Not really sure why people think CFR is so relevant.


It's nearly 2%.

Edit, sorry for redundancy, thread is moving quickly .
Again I did mess that up my bad. But CFR is not the real mortality rate. Nobody seems to be getting that. We don't know the denominator (actual number of cases), and chances are the true death rate is pretty low. I don't understand why countries that have large numbers of tests available aren't taking random samples of the general population in order to estimate the true denominator. I mean we as a nation can do this daily for political polls.
It's safe to say it's much more deadly than the standard seasonal influenza. I'm predicting 0.6%, or 6x that of flu
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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tysker
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In reply to AggieOO • 1:49p, 4/9/20
AG
Quote:
Just walking down the street in midtown would be impossible to stay 6 feet from others. Hell, it'd be hard in a lot of other areas, and not just in manhattan.

Staying away from people in NYC is not feasible if the city is even partially opened.
Some grocery stores in TX have markers at the registers to designate 6 ft. If NYC used those separation markers the lines could span the length of the entire bodegas or deli. Social distancing is impractical there.
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TXAggie2011
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1:52p, 4/9/20
AG
Quote:
Again I did mess that up my bad. But CFR is not the real mortality rate. Nobody seems to be getting that. We don't know the denominator (actual number of cases), and chances are the true death rate is pretty low. I don't understand why countries that have large numbers of tests available aren't taking random samples of the general population in order to estimate the true denominator. I mean we as a nation can do this daily for political polls.
(1) Everyone knows the calculated CFR is higher than reality. There's debate about how much higher, but everyone "gets that."

(2) They're almost certainly not going to start random samples of any significant size while they're still struggling to timely test those who might have the virus, and struggling to timely test healthcare workers and others with high exposure risk.

We can take daily political polls because we have more than enough phones in this country.
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agforlife97
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In reply to Pelayo • 1:53p, 4/9/20
AG
Pelayo said:
agforlife97 said:
ETFan said:
agforlife97 said:
cone said:
that CFR is really not good news fwiw
0.04% mortality rate for all cases means it's half as deadly as seasonal flu. Not really sure why people think CFR is so relevant.


It's nearly 2%.

Edit, sorry for redundancy, thread is moving quickly .
Again I did mess that up my bad. But CFR is not the real mortality rate. Nobody seems to be getting that. We don't know the denominator (actual number of cases), and chances are the true death rate is pretty low. I don't understand why countries that have large numbers of tests available aren't taking random samples of the general population in order to estimate the true denominator. I mean we as a nation can do this daily for political polls.
It's safe to say it's much more deadly than the standard seasonal influenza. I'm predicting 0.6%, or 6x that of flu
I'm don't think it's safe to say that at all. There's no data at all on the true number of cases.
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AggieOO
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In reply to tysker • 2:02p, 4/9/20
tysker said:
Quote:
And even in the last example, it probably only clears out about a 1/4 of the car.
That's only because you step onto the relatively empty car thinking this is my lucky day before you realize everyone is covering their nose and understand the mistake you've made. And before you can exit, the doors close and you're stuck but at least you might get a seat. Then you do the 'sitting vs. smell' calculations to the next stop while checking how crowded the next car is... Sometimes the suffering is worth a seat.. Ya been there done that
i award you Eleventy internet points!
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Harrison Wells
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In reply to Dr.HeadCase • 2:14p, 4/9/20
AG
Dr.HeadCase said:
Nice (not) subtle attempt to accuse people of cheering on the virus. Take it to forum 16.

They can't help themselves. It's sad, really.
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Dad
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In reply to Dr.HeadCase • 2:28p, 4/9/20
AG
Dr.HeadCase said:
Why should we be 'cheery'? Thousands of people are still dying every day and will continue to do so for a while even with these extreme measures. How about relieved but still concerned? Is that enough for you? The war is far from over.

How do you feel about the 8,000 plus people that were dying per day in this country before the corona virus?

Death is a part of life. I try not to think about it all the time but it is around us constantly. I don't know the percentages but some of those thousand plus people that are dying of CV would have been dying of something else this year.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to Pelayo • 2:39p, 4/9/20
AG
Pelayo said:

It's safe to say it's much more deadly than the standard seasonal influenza. I'm predicting 0.6%, or 6x that of flu
Will that hold if the drugs like HCQ and the IL-6 inhibitor ultimately prove to be as effective as some of the anecdotal observations appear?

In other words, once a vaccine is in place, treatment protocol in place, and treatment protocol for worst cases in place, what is the long-term death rate? That may be factored into your number, but was curious if so or if it would drive it even lower.
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