Yes I think it's safe to say once a vaccine is in place the death rate will go down.

in all likelihood, you'll have a treatment protocol in place by the end of summer that makes this thing fairly manageable

something better and more reliable than HCQ

that's the key to unlocking this whole thing

testing to reduce spread and better therapeutics to reduce the severity

i don't think you're going to get a strong vaccine here

Proposition Joe said:

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Yes I think it's safe to say once a vaccine is in place the death rate will go down.

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That's assuming a vaccine is ever available for widespread use. We never got one for SARS or MERS. Mostly because we learned to live with them and desire to create to create a vaccine waned. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing again here.

flown-the-coop said:

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Pelayo said:

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It's safe to say it's much more deadly than the standard seasonal influenza. I'm predicting 0.6%, or 6x that of flu

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Will that hold if the drugs like HCQ and the IL-6 inhibitor ultimately prove to be as effective as some of the anecdotal observations appear?

In other words, once a vaccine is in place, treatment protocol in place, and treatment protocol for worst cases in place, what is the long-term death rate? That may be factored into your number, but was curious if so or if it would drive it even lower.

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That is too early to know but my sense is if the vaccine is not more effective than the influenza vaccine we will still be looking at a higher mortality rate than 0.1%, but maybe not by as much.

We didn't learn to live with them. Both of those diseases burned out completely (no cases) in the wild due to non pharmaceutical interventions. The interest in a vaccine waned because no one was getting infected anymore

Who was being passive aggressive?

pocketrockets06 said:

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We didn't learn to live with them. Both of those diseases burned out completely (no cases) in the wild due to non pharmaceutical interventions. The interest in a vaccine waned because no one was getting infected anymore

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This is true.

It became easy to recognize, and people that were exposed were quarantined.

The difference between SARS/MERS and Covid is the COVID stays in your system for a long time before you show any symptoms, and you are spreading the virus while you still feel healthy. SARS/MERS were not that way.

Once sick people stopped being around other people, these viruses died out.

Well, the OP mentioned politics and was being passive aggressive. That's fine. I think there has been a lot of posts reporting the good news about the trends and the reduction in case spread, hospitalizations, ICU visits, and deaths. I don't think the OP looked that hard for them, but that's also fine. Its true that I don't see a lot of thread titles exclaiming victory, but I think people were posting the positive updates inside some long running threads.

I truly don't know that those who have been most concerned about the virus - their own health or the health of those they care about - necessarily should be jumping around yet. The IHME models have had a huge reduction in the cases, hospital stays, and deaths predicted for the first wave or the virus. The models don't say when the sheltering will end or what life will be like after that. The models don't predict post sheltering virus spread in a second wave, or when a proven treatment of vaccine will be available. The model is not economic, so those that have lost their jobs and businesses don't know when they will return. Those with jobs today don't know how much longer that can last in the shutdown, there are very serious economic concerns the OP did not account for. We are all still stuck at home.

Someone posted the South Korean status as good news - their CFR is still unacceptably high to many, but can see how some would say its acceptable when compared to economic impact. If a country can prove the spread can be stopped, thats great.

I think we have a long way to go but everyone should be happy the social distancing stuff worked, I agree with the OP on that.

I think its hard for a lot of folks, and I would include myself, to separate emotions on politics and emotions on the virus and its social, health and economic impacts when they enter into these discussions.

Folks should both consider this when they create threads and in responding and others should equally consider this when they respond to a post they think may be pushing or crossing a line.

AggieOO said:

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Freeze Frame said:

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AggieOO said:

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Freeze Frame said:

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New York is going to start to re-open next month, just wait. Stay apart, wear masks and compromised stay home.

"How few people have been infected?" Nobody knows how many have been infected but I'd guarantee it's many multiples of 400k.

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have you ever been to NYC? This isn't possible without people staying home.

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I lived there for 5 years. Obviously 6 feet isn't doable but people don't have to be on top of everyone else. Cuomo knows NY state was already bankrupt...he didn't want to shut down in the first place. If the decrease is sustained he'll reopen but in stages and won't announce until late April to get people to stay home now.

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Take the ACE from 59th street to West 4th during rush hour and let me know how that works out for you.

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Ride your bike.

Edited to add: Sorry that was a bit snarky. My point is if you listen to these infectious disease doctors NYC wouldn't open until there is a proven vaccine. Nobody is going to wait that that long, including the Governor of NY, to re-open. I suspect the reduced employment, compromised working from home, lessons from telework, etc. will cause the city to be slower for awhile and help to keep the number of people down.

UTExan said:

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Good news.

Distancing= viable virus falling to ground in droplets and dying before it can reach another human host and propagate.

I would keep this going until the end of May and insure recovery of the country's economy by avoiding a resurgence of the pandemic.

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When did we go from flatten the curve to "save everyone"?

Duncan Idaho said:

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Yes. Everyone is aware that social distancing is working and is dramatically effecting the models.

That in no way means that this is close to over with or that everything can return to normal by the end of april

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Social distancing was supposed to be in the models already.

brownbrick said:

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I think large parts of the country should open back up by end of April. Having been in NYC...it is hosed. When they open back up this thing will start spreading again.

But NYC is not the USA and shouldn't be how the rest of the USA runs. Places that have hospitals mostly empty should be easing restrictions now so more people get the virus and we have a chance at herd immunity.

The issue isnt CFR it is when will hospitals be overrun. Where I live hospital nurses and staff are being furloughed, it is BS. The entire economy shouldn't be shut down where I live over 20-40 cases 3 of which are hospitalized.

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Excellent points! We need to reach herd immunity as fast as possible without overloading the hostpitals but we all can't be homeLess waiting for a damnn vaccine or treatments that are months away. That's not ok for me.

Freeze Frame said:

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AggieOO said:

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Freeze Frame said:

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AggieOO said:

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Freeze Frame said:

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New York is going to start to re-open next month, just wait. Stay apart, wear masks and compromised stay home.

"How few people have been infected?" Nobody knows how many have been infected but I'd guarantee it's many multiples of 400k.

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have you ever been to NYC? This isn't possible without people staying home.

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I lived there for 5 years. Obviously 6 feet isn't doable but people don't have to be on top of everyone else. Cuomo knows NY state was already bankrupt...he didn't want to shut down in the first place. If the decrease is sustained he'll reopen but in stages and won't announce until late April to get people to stay home now.

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Take the ACE from 59th street to West 4th during rush hour and let me know how that works out for you.

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Ride your bike.

Edited to add: Sorry that was a bit snarky. My point is if you listen to these infectious disease doctors NYC wouldn't open until there is a proven vaccine. Nobody is going to wait that that long, including the Governor of NY, to re-open. I suspect the reduced employment, compromised working from home, lessons from telework, etc. will cause the city to be slower for awhile and help to keep the number of people down.

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For two of they years I lived up there, I lived at 137th and 7th. Probably about 25% of the time, i'd ride out to the WSH and take my bike in to work at the Chelsea Market building. Once you get south of the Intrepid, keeping 6 feet from someone would be virtually impossible. Before that, I rode in from Brooklyn sometimes instead of taking the L. Similar story once you get to the Williamsburg Bridge.

FYI - i'm being serious, but taking this very "lighthearted." Not trying to be a dick or argue. Just discussing.

Add in the fact that if weuse Ben Carson's and rush Limbaugh's number of 98% recover that I saw this morning we will have 1-4 million deaths (360mm x 60% infected x 2% don't recover).

It will take years for the country to recover from the PTSD and survivors guilt that will haunt this country.

No one will be going to games, restaurants theaters, Walmart, anything for a long time if we hit those numbers.

Look at the impact polio had on attendance to public pools and lakes.

https://www.historyofvaccines.org/content/blog/polio-and-swimming-pools-historical-connections

I could not disagree more.

Covid barely even affects kids.

Herd immunity I think is about 80%. If we get there there is no "second wave" people will be immune.

That's what herd immunity means.

Also we cant all go on poverty row waiting for a vaccine. Lets be realistic here.

DTP02 said:

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El Hombre Mas Guapo said:

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cone said:

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good news

social distancing works
hospitals didn't get overrun in most cities
bought time for mobilization efforts

bad news

our younger cohort is much more likely to die than projections from other countries
our testing capacity isn't close to what you need for surveillance
total infected as part of the local population is likely low single digits, will need to be 10x that at least for herd immunity

first mile of the marathon is behind us

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Just haven't heard much cheer - I'd say the three points you made above outweigh the negatives you listed below.

Who needs to test everyone when the hospitals didn't get overrun? Who needs heard immunity (and I think your estimate is grossly understated) when the death rate is half that of the seasonal flu?

Why can't we focus on the positives you listed - which are huge accomplishments vs three weeks ago when we were told we had to pick tens of thousands of Americans to die...

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You understand that the actions we've taken to achieve these results are untenable as a longterm plan, right?

I'm relieved that the actions are working, but I also assumed they would and all it's really accomplished is buying time. Our ability to successfully use that time to put things in place to allow a loosening of restrictions in the near future is where the first victory lies. And we won't know whether we've used that time well enough until we actually loosen restrictions and can keep infection spread to a reasonable level without having to go on another 6-week lockdown.

Ultimate victory will come from a widespread effective treatment and/or vaccination.

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Thank you. Hopefully, he finally gets it. Doubt it though.

Ultimate victory is herd immunity, a vaccine, or a very effective treatment.

DadHammer said:

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Ultimate victory is herd immunity, a vaccine, or a very effective treatment.

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Herd immunity is a resolution. Herd immunity is not, itself, what I could consider "victory."

Actually, albeit to a lesser extent, I would say "vaccines" and "very effective treatment" aren't necessarily "victory", either. I'm not meaning to sound dramatic, but whether they're a victory depends on what happens before they're achieved. And for whom they're a victory remains to be seen.

DadHammer said:

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I could not disagree more.

Covid barely even affects kids.

Herd immunity I think is about 80%. If we get there there is no "second wave" people will be immune.

That's what herd immunity means.

Also we cant all go on poverty row waiting for a vaccine. Lets be realistic here.

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You do realize how many people die on the way to 80%?

The best course to return to normal is the Korean or Taiwan model.

Rapid and prolific testing, force mask compliance, promote WFH/discourage going into offices, track movement and forcibly and immediately quarantine any that test positive.

I don't believe that movement tracking will happen here or that it should but the others should absolutely be put in place.

If it takes herd immunity to end this, all of those things you want to come back like sports, theaters, large restaurants, festivals, will take years.

Talk to people that survived the depression and see how many habits they still have from that time.

cone said:

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treatment , testing and time is what all guns should be aimed at

herd immunity would be disastrous

slow it down as much as possible and let technology and industry go nuts

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Fify. You need testing to be able to quell hot spots in order to buy time.

I don't see any reason to think we'll have the testing capacity required to do real sentinel surveillance

That seems pure wishcasting to me at this point

IMHO - you go for all three at the same time as fast as you can. I left out antibody testing so those people can go back to work right now.

We cant stay at home waiting for 100% solutions that is not smart or realistic.

With 30% unemployment the chaos and deaths would dwarf covid deaths.

If you want to quarantine yourself go ahead. The rest of us have the right to restart our lives but be smart about it at the same time.

The old, sick, most at risk, and anyone that doesn't want to work, should stay home and away from us who want to work.

Duncan Idaho said:

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Add in the fact that if weuse Ben Carson's and rush Limbaugh's number of 98% recover that I saw this morning we will have 1-4 million deaths (360mm x 60% infected x 2% don't recover).

It will take years for the country to recover from the PTSD and survivors guilt that will haunt this country.

No one will be going to games, restaurants theaters, Walmart, anything for a long time if we hit those numbers.

Look at the impact polio had on attendance to public pools and lakes.

https://www.historyofvaccines.org/content/blog/polio-and-swimming-pools-historical-connections

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What time period is this "1-4 million deaths"? You sound like you're talking about 100% of the country getting it at some point, so how long does that take?

Also, I gotta think the elderly are going to be doing things ALOT differently going forward, and nursing homes have already drastically changed the way they operate. Going to be very tough for them to get exposed, thank goodness.