doom and gloom from A&M researcher

13,405 Views | 107 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by Pinata Man
JDCAG (NOT Colin)
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In reply to HowdyTexasAggies • 10:58a, 4/16/20
AG
OlSarge92 said:
We will never recover from the stimulus package, that is a fact, our national debt just continues to spiral out of control with buffoons (Reps and Dems) spending us into neverland.


Start at late January and give me your plan.

It's easy as hell to second guess, especially considering the "alternative plan" is all hypothetical (i.e. you get to assume if we had just gone about life as normal, that the death toll wouldn't have risen at all)...

Either way though, let's hear your suggestion on how things should have been handled starting with the first known case arriving in January...

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tysker
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In reply to PJYoung • 11:00a, 4/16/20
AG
PJYoung said:
OlSarge92 said:
We will never recover from the stimulus package, that is a fact, our national debt just continues to spiral out of control with buffoons (Reps and Dems) spending us into neverland.

Did we ever recover from the Spanish Flu? or the Great Depression? Ever is a long time.
Did Joe Exotic financially recover from his employee getting an arm ripped off?
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cone
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In reply to PJYoung • 11:00a, 4/16/20
AG
latest death rate I saw in NYC was 0.7% 18-44

>80% of those had underlying conditions
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HowdyTexasAggies
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In reply to JDCAG (NOT Colin) • 11:01a, 4/16/20
AG
JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:
OlSarge92 said:
We will never recover from the stimulus package, that is a fact, our national debt just continues to spiral out of control with buffoons (Reps and Dems) spending us into neverland.


Start at late January and give me your plan.

It's easy as hell to second guess, especially considering the "alternative plan" is all hypothetical (i.e. you get to assume if we had just gone about life as normal, that the death toll wouldn't have risen at all)...

Either way though, let's hear your suggestion on how things should have been handled starting with the first known case arriving in January...


It doesn't matter what plan I provide, unless it matches what the "doctor gods" are preaching, you will argu it down.
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JDCAG (NOT Colin)
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In reply to HowdyTexasAggies • 11:01a, 4/16/20
AG
Nice escape plan.

I promise not to address it one way or the other.

Let's hear it.
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Texaggie7nine
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In reply to JDCAG (NOT Colin) • 11:02a, 4/16/20
JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:
OlSarge92 said:
We will never recover from the stimulus package, that is a fact, our national debt just continues to spiral out of control with buffoons (Reps and Dems) spending us into neverland.


Start at late January and give me your plan.

It's easy as hell to second guess, especially considering the "alternative plan" is all hypothetical (i.e. you get to assume if we had just gone about life as normal, that the death toll wouldn't have risen at all)...

Either way though, let's hear your suggestion on how things should have been handled starting with the first known case arriving in January...

I'm going to guess something along the lines of "lock up meemaw and pawpaw and everyone else nut up and don't be a bunch of *****'s"
7nine
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HowdyTexasAggies
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In reply to JDCAG (NOT Colin) • 11:02a, 4/16/20
AG
whatever, this will be an endless argument, and pointless
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JDCAG (NOT Colin)
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In reply to HowdyTexasAggies • 11:03a, 4/16/20
AG
OlSarge92 said:
whatever, this will be an endless argument, and pointless


So you can bash everything that has taken place, but flatly refuse to suggest any alternative?

Seriously?
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HowdyTexasAggies
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In reply to JDCAG (NOT Colin) • 11:05a, 4/16/20
AG
JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:
OlSarge92 said:
whatever, this will be an endless argument, and pointless


So you can bash everything that has taken place, but flatly refuse to suggest any alternative?

Seriously?
yes, seriously, I have no interest in having that discussion with you or whatever buddy you have to pile on, sorry to disappoint you.

you have no interest in evaluating any alternative views, so why bother
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TxAG#2011
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11:07a, 4/16/20
Open the economy bros are going to be real confused when we open the economy and half the population still won't leave their house
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cavscout96
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In reply to ETFan • 11:07a, 4/16/20
AG
ETFan said:
J. Walter Weatherman said:
Ludicrous suggestion, and as is the pattern, by someone who will never have to worry about missing a paycheck due to a shutdown.
"we need to find ways we can adapt society and strike a balance between the health of the nation and our economy ." Is ludicrous? What?
We don't adapt our society. We persevere. If Churchill would have "adapted" the whole island would be speaking German.
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ETFan
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In reply to cavscout96 • 11:09a, 4/16/20
cavscout96 said:
ETFan said:
J. Walter Weatherman said:
Ludicrous suggestion, and as is the pattern, by someone who will never have to worry about missing a paycheck due to a shutdown.
"we need to find ways we can adapt society and strike a balance between the health of the nation and our economy ." Is ludicrous? What?
We don't adapt our society. We persevere. If Churchill would have "adapted" the whole island would be speaking German.
Ok. We're discussing a virus.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to cavscout96 • 11:11a, 4/16/20
cavscout96 said:
ETFan said:
J. Walter Weatherman said:
Ludicrous suggestion, and as is the pattern, by someone who will never have to worry about missing a paycheck due to a shutdown.
"we need to find ways we can adapt society and strike a balance between the health of the nation and our economy ." Is ludicrous? What?
We don't adapt our society. We persevere. If Churchill would have "adapted" the whole island would be speaking German.


You don't think England "adapted" during the Battle of Britain?

Yes they preserved but they sure as **** adapted to the new reality.
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tysker
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In reply to TxAG#2011 • 11:14a, 4/16/20
AG
TxAG#2011 said:
Open the economy bros are going to be real confused when we open the economy and half the population still won't leave their house
And that's their choice. From lots of anecdotal reports, people are already going around everywhere putting others at risk. Even though all indications tell us cases are decreasing.
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Big Al 1992
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11:17a, 4/16/20
AG
When folks say over 80% that died had comorbidities can't that be said about folks that die from heart failure, pneumonia, cancer, stroke - that 80% of those folks had some type of comorbidity also? So would Covid19 be acting similar?
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MasterAggie
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11:19a, 4/16/20
AG
It can't be just open it all up. It can't be complete lockdown. It has to be somewhere in the middle. People will continue to get sick and die either way. But just swinging the doors wide open isn't a viable solution.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to Big Al 1992 • 11:24a, 4/16/20
Nevermind that 40% of the US adult population has just a single of the many comorbitities.... obesity.

Add in the rest of the 50+ year olds, the diabetics, those with Heath and lung diseases, compromised immune systems, etc etc etc and there aren't a whole lot of people left that don't have a comorbitity.

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tysker
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In reply to MasterAggie • 11:31a, 4/16/20
AG
If things are wide open, half the population will stay at home scared or so I was just told. So how is that going to be much different than we have now with all these people breaking social distancing norms, using parks and playgrounds, not wearing masks, licking toilet seats, not washing their hands for a full 20 seconds and insisting on using ERs as their primary care.
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California Ag 90
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12:51p, 4/16/20
AG
a few points to consider:

- 'workers will be too scared to go back to work' is argued often, but not backed up by current facts. factories across industries that are 'essential', as well as 'essential businesses', that have remained open have had relatively low levels of worker absenteeism. the notion that folks will stay home who need to work to make ends meet is not supported by current behavior in the midst of this crisis. some will stay home out of fear, but the vast majority will return to work.

- waiting for a vaccine sounds reasonable but is a tremendous leap of faith in technology. we've had coronaviruses (rhinoviruses) causing common colds for, well, forever. the financial incentives to invent a vaccine against rhinoviruses are off the charts - a company would print money if they 'cured the common cold', yet we don't have one. there are indications of optimism that a COVID 19 vaccine is possible, but it is by no means certain. better than 50/50? ok. better than 80%? i doubt it.

We're from North California, and South Alabam
and little towns all around this land...
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fig96
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In reply to California Ag 90 • 12:58p, 4/16/20
AG
If we're completely honest none of this is backed up by current facts, we're simply in an unprecedented situation with way too little data.

What happens when things do or don't open back up is anyone's guess.
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littledude
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In reply to California Ag 90 • 12:59p, 4/16/20
AG
I think there are a couple of things to consider to your points

1) people aren't scared to go to work or out and about now but would it be different if every city looked like New York? I don't know. And I don't know if everywhere would actually be that bad. It's just with considering.

2) rhinovirus is an enterovirus and not a coronavirus. Your point is correct though that a vaccine isn't certain.
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Keller6Ag91
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 1:00p, 4/16/20
AG
Duncan Idaho said:
OlSarge92 said:
I recommend you read some alternative views, millions will not die, the current stats do not support this.


With out a vaccine or aggressive testing,tracking and isolation, this ends with herd immunity. That happens at 60-70% infected. At a 1% death rate, that means millions dead.


You realize we lost almost 10K Texans to the Flu in 2018 WITH a "vaccine". I bet we don't get to that number in all of 2020 on COVID (although the continued liberal assignment of COVID to deaths may get us close).
Gig'Em and God Bless,

JB'91
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Keller6Ag91
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 1:01p, 4/16/20
AG
Duncan Idaho said:
Nevermind that 40% of the US adult population has just a single of the many comorbitities.... obesity.

Add in the rest of the 50+ year olds, the diabetics, those with Heath and lung diseases, compromised immune systems, etc etc etc and there aren't a whole lot of people left that don't have a comorbitity.



Time for all of us to pay attention to our health - me included. Puts new emphasis on "survival of the fittest".
Gig'Em and God Bless,

JB'91
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California Ag 90
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In reply to littledude • 1:13p, 4/16/20
AG
littledude said:


2) rhinovirus is an enterovirus and not a coronavirus. Your point is correct though that a vaccine isn't certain.
i'm seriously confused. maybe i'm mixing common cold with rhinovirus.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html

always thought rhinoviruses caused colds.

EDIT to add i agree 100% about the difference if everyplace looked like NYC, although grocery stores in NYC have been well staffed through this, which is kind of surprising.
We're from North California, and South Alabam
and little towns all around this land...
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littledude
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In reply to California Ag 90 • 1:19p, 4/16/20
AG
"Common cold" is caused by a number of different viruses. Rhinovirus is the most common one but coronavirus causes the cold also.
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California Ag 90
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In reply to littledude • 1:20p, 4/16/20
AG
littledude said:
"Common cold" is caused by a number of different viruses. Rhinovirus is the most common one but coronavirus causes the cold also.
helpful. thanks!
We're from North California, and South Alabam
and little towns all around this land...
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fig96
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In reply to Keller6Ag91 • 1:26p, 4/16/20
AG
Keller6Ag91 said:
Duncan Idaho said:
OlSarge92 said:
I recommend you read some alternative views, millions will not die, the current stats do not support this.


With out a vaccine or aggressive testing,tracking and isolation, this ends with herd immunity. That happens at 60-70% infected. At a 1% death rate, that means millions dead.


You realize we lost almost 10K Texans to the Flu in 2018 WITH a "vaccine". I bet we don't get to that number in all of 2020 on COVID (although the continued liberal assignment of COVID to deaths may get us close).
While we did that was unusually high, typical flu deaths in the US range from around 10,000 to an unusual high of 80,000 deaths in 2018 when we had that high. And a relevant note is those are deaths due to flu or flu complications (which might be something to consider with your "liberal assignment"). But the bigger picture is that's out of tens of millions of cases across the US, an estimated 39,000,000 to 56,000,000 last year.

Now imagine that without a vaccine.

(Side note: I've wondered but never been able to find data on how many flu deaths occur in people that were or weren't vaccinated.)
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PJYoung
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2:25p, 4/16/20
AG
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cavscout96
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In reply to ETFan • 2:41p, 4/16/20
AG
ETFan said:
cavscout96 said:
ETFan said:
J. Walter Weatherman said:
Ludicrous suggestion, and as is the pattern, by someone who will never have to worry about missing a paycheck due to a shutdown.
"we need to find ways we can adapt society and strike a balance between the health of the nation and our economy ." Is ludicrous? What?
We don't adapt our society. We persevere. If Churchill would have "adapted" the whole island would be speaking German.
Ok. We're discussing a virus.


We're discussing society
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cavscout96
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 2:45p, 4/16/20
AG
Duncan Idaho said:
cavscout96 said:
ETFan said:
J. Walter Weatherman said:
Ludicrous suggestion, and as is the pattern, by someone who will never have to worry about missing a paycheck due to a shutdown.
"we need to find ways we can adapt society and strike a balance between the health of the nation and our economy ." Is ludicrous? What?
We don't adapt our society. We persevere. If Churchill would have "adapted" the whole island would be speaking German.


You don't think England "adapted" during the Battle of Britain?

Yes they preserved but they sure as **** adapted to the new reality.


How did their society change?

Aside from black out shades at night, and gals giving up their silk stockings for parachutes.

The Brits remained staunchly British. They temporarily adapted SOME of their behavior. They did not go into hiding or change their whole society.
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Texaggie7nine
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In reply to cavscout96 • 2:56p, 4/16/20
Pretty sure when those bomb sirens went off, they adapted and got their asses into shelter.
7nine
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cavscout96
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3:00p, 4/16/20
AG
Sure. Then the went on with the rest of their business afterward.
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Cassius
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 3:02p, 4/16/20
Duncan Idaho said:
Larry Lajitas said:
Duncan Idaho said:
What's the saying? Facts don't care about your feelings.

We are in for a long haul.
Like the poster above said it will be anarchy before that happens. Humans, especially Americans citizens, are not going to stay isolated for that long. At a minimum people are going to start having house parties and meetups. Theres no way social distancing lasts another full month.


I agree people are selfish and idiots. We will try to open to early, people will die by the thousands this summer and it will scare The **** out of everyone. The fall/winter lockdown will make this week like child's play.

Without testing, tracking, isolation or an effective treatment or vaccine 100,000s if not millions of people will die before this is over.


It's gonna happen regardless. You obviously don't understand that. The faster it happens, the better. Burning the economy down is just an unnecessary side effect.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to Keller6Ag91 • 3:35p, 4/16/20
Keller6Ag91 said:
Duncan Idaho said:
OlSarge92 said:
I recommend you read some alternative views, millions will not die, the current stats do not support this.


With out a vaccine or aggressive testing,tracking and isolation, this ends with herd immunity. That happens at 60-70% infected. At a 1% death rate, that means millions dead.


You realize we lost almost 10K Texans to the Flu in 2018 WITH a "vaccine". I bet we don't get to that number in all of 2020 on COVID (although the continued liberal assignment of COVID to deaths may get us close).

I don't think saying well the flu killed 10k people with a vaccine supports your point like you think it does

You realize that based on the data we have this is 5-6x more deadly than the flu and we don't have a vaccine and it has a longer asymptomatic infectious period and has a higher R0.

All that points to a **** ton more dead unless we take steps like we have and put testing/contact tracing and quarantining in place.
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Texan_Aggie
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 3:52p, 4/16/20
AG
Yes, obviously if everyone stayed home and we contact traced effectively, this would be the best path forward from a lives perspective. But this approach has obvious costs, most notably the economy and people sustaining jobs.

This will come down to a cost benefit analysis. Yes, we will lose lives, but at what cost to the greater population are we willing to do so. It is morbid to say we are okay with more people dying so that others can work, but it likely will happen that way.
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