Autopsies from a couple home deaths on Feb 6 and Feb 17 in Santa Clara County California revealed that tissue samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Confirmed by CDC today according to county press release.
https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/press-release-04-21-20-early.aspx

From the mention of strict testing criteria, I guess this indicates these may have been acquired via community spread?

As a reference, currently the CDC lists the first COVID deaths in the USA the week of Feb 29.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

That'd be supportive of a late-January introduction.

Also supportive of under-counted deaths.

Ag_of_08 said:

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I was assured that it was scientifically impossible for the virus to have been here in January, or to have been spreading....

Think that pretty effectively closes that idea off. That earliest death, if it had not come from travel(indicated above), would have had to have been here in January given known timelines.

I'm curious what the folks demanding that we absolutely know it could not have happened can justify this one?

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You were assured of no such thing. Stop trolling or at least try harder.

It fits the timeline of the first cases arriving/spreading in mid to late January.

BlackGoldAg2011 said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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I was assured that it was scientifically impossible for the virus to have been here in January, or to have been spreading....

Think that pretty effectively closes that idea off. That earliest death, if it had not come from travel(indicated above), would have had to have been here in January given known timelines.

I'm curious what the folks demanding that we absolutely know it could not have happened can justify this one?

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You were assured of no such thing. Stop trolling or at least try harder.

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He literally was, we all were. You must've missed the thread in question. I spent a few minutes trying to find it with no luck, hopefully someone else knows where its at.

The first known case in the US was diagnosed on January 21.

Moxley said:

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The first known case in the US was diagnosed on January 21.

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Right, but they were all believed to have been traced to a single point source and not community spread correct, through Washington?

I guess my point is more the assurance it was not spreading widely, community spread etc by mutation and genetic tracking. This would indicate either many more vectors in, or community spread down a very long coastline much earlier than believed.

This genetic mutation map?

Quote:

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Circulation in CA started in Jan or Feb 2020. 13/18

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The first genetics guy talking about this was sure there was larger undetected spread in Washington State in January. Very possible there was another introducer in California in January around the same time frame. Nothing about these deaths indicate earlier introduction, just unknown cases.

If true, this is interesting news. Doesn't dramatically change where we are today, but one interpretation might suggest this changes the going-in assumptions and adds to the data set on transmission rate.

This virus hit different parts of the country at different times. Washington was the first to notice, test and ID. But Washington =/= NYC

Don't get'chur panties in a wad as new data points to consider come out...

Here is a thread where I brought up my skepticism of the CDC claims.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3101132/replies/56206096#56206096

Posts can be found in the thread claiming my theory is impossible.

I think we would have seen larger increases in hospitalizations over that time frame if that were the case. I do find it strange that flooding of hospitals such as what happened in New York did not happen earlier given how long the virus was out there in China. More than likely I think we will discover the virus probably hit the west coast earlier but just it doesn't spread as well in areas where people aren't crammed together on public transport or in crowded markets/streets.

lda6339 said:

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BlackGoldAg2011 said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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I was assured that it was scientifically impossible for the virus to have been here in January, or to have been spreading....

Think that pretty effectively closes that idea off. That earliest death, if it had not come from travel(indicated above), would have had to have been here in January given known timelines.

I'm curious what the folks demanding that we absolutely know it could not have happened can justify this one?

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You were assured of no such thing. Stop trolling or at least try harder.

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He literally was, we all were. You must've missed the thread in question. I spent a few minutes trying to find it with no luck, hopefully someone else knows where its at.

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Absolutely true. I tossed an idea out there that my wife and kids had been sick with the virus much earlier than the official word suggested and Captain America Doctor was quick to tell me it was impossible and that I couldn't argue against genetics and that I could continue to believe my disinformation or I could pay attention to the facts. This doesn't prove anything or disprove anything except that people died as many as 3 weeks before everyone thought. I just wish people could give off their GD high horse and admit this thing's history and transmission are probably not going to be known for years or decades.

Moxley said:

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I think we would have seen larger increases in hospitalizations over that time frame if that were the case. I do find it strange that flooding of hospitals such as what happened in New York did not happen earlier given how long the virus was out there in China. More than likely I think we will discover the virus probably hit the west coast earlier but just it doesn't spread as well in areas where people aren't crammed together on public transport or in crowded markets/streets.

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This makes perfect sense.

Ag_of_08 said:

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BlackGoldAg2011 said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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I was assured that it was scientifically impossible for the virus to have been here in January, or to have been spreading....

Think that pretty effectively closes that idea off. That earliest death, if it had not come from travel(indicated above), would have had to have been here in January given known timelines.

I'm curious what the folks demanding that we absolutely know it could not have happened can justify this one?

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You were assured of no such thing. Stop trolling or at least try harder.

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Yes, I was actually. There is a genetic/mutation map being posted here over and over again, and anyone who suggested a January introduction and community spread is routinely told they're wrong, its impossible, etc.

Don't accuse me of trolling for asking a question about why a point that was hammered as settled was off that badly. These two deaths raise huge questions about the accuracy of modeling, response, threat etc.

I haven't trolled in this forum yet actually... what I post may not always be correct, but disagreement or skepticism is not trolling.

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well apologies if i misinterpreted your intent. Unless I am just missing it however, no one ever said it was "scientifically impossible for the virus to be here in January". I can say this because that very genome map being passed around as evidence specifically shows known cases arriving in mid-late January. The idea being refuted is that it was widespread far earlier. some of that probably gets lost in the wild back and forth between different ideas ranging across the entire spectrum, making it hard to have a solid discussion around distinct view points. This is maybe not true for everyone, but I think most would agree that if we had several known cases here in mid January, then in all likelihood, there were far more than a handful of infections in the country at that point. But that is not the same as saying it was already widespread at that point, to the level that we are fizzling out now due to herd immunity, which is the stance I've seen a couple of posters take. some of the posts have taken a dismissive tone, but I attribute that to the fact that the idea has been brought up so many times that it has gotten frustrating, and never with any more evidence than "i had flu like symptoms in November but tested negative for the flu" so the idea has started just getting dismissed out of hand with other conspiracy theories. this is the first actual evidence I have seen posted that would actually push the supported timeline earlier.

also, your post is a perfect example of why this line of thinking is being summarily dismissed. No one of any intelligence would have ever said "that it was scientifically impossible for the virus to have been here in January". so when you open your post that way, you are coming across as no better than the "well i had a negative flu test last October so this must have been made in a Chinese lab and intentionally weaponized because reasons" guy. not saying you personally are that guy, but this is a forum where all communication is in writing. your word choice is important

So this raises the question "Why didn't Santa Clara, and the SF Bay area, become a hot spot in the way Seattle did?"

One thought? Santa Clara is young. The median age of 33.9 is about 5 years less than than entire US, and 15 years younger than Italy.

COVID kills noticeably high numbers in the 70+ demographic. Until it gets into a cluster in that segment of society, it's more difficult to spot.

Seattle became a hot spot because it hit that nursing home. The west coast states aren't nearly as crowded as the east coast states

Just a thought to piggy back off of that.

Lets assume this did hit earlier than they say in some areas. Most young people probably figured it was a bad cold or flu. Heck, many might have thought it was just allergies or might not have even felt anything at all. Since most the population didn't know what was happening in January, my guess is that many of your average 30 somethings didn't go to the Dr just for what they thought was a cold or flu. And the few that did obviously weren't getting diagnosed with SARs-COV-2 since we weren't testing for it.

Viral load can also matter. The less dense populated areas aren't exposed to as much. So again, combined with younger/better immune systems, the amount of severe cases were minimal so nothing was being reported. The few that were, were likely shrugged off at the time as common colds or flu.

I'd bet money that my father in law had this virus right around February 15th to 20th, here in Texas. When this all shakes out, we're going to find it was widespread by that time and all the pseudoscientists here were wrong.

When was the first actual confirmed case in China? I have seen mid November and mid December. With direct flights from Wuhan to the west coast it is plausible it was here much earlier. I do not see why so many people are saying it is impossible it was not here earlier than February, investigations/research take time.

I know several Californians that think they had it in December and early January. With the antibody testing we will confirm if this is true or not. The sequencing models will grow and we will get a better understanding of the timeline.

dellgriffith said:

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Here is a thread where I brought up my skepticism of the CDC claims.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3101132/replies/56206096#56206096

Posts can be found in the thread claiming my theory is impossible.

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As most on here know, I agree with you. And I do not know why it generates such animosity.

Moxley said:

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The first known case in the US was diagnosed on January 21.

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In light of this fact, the trolls on this thread are really awful. They make no sense at all. I imagine its bleed over from the Politics board.

Furthermore, the counter arguments in the threads that they reference all talk about a January introduction based on gene mapping. Nothing has changed.

P.U.T.U said:

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When was the first actual confirmed case in China? I have seen mid November and mid December. With direct flights from Wuhan to the west coast it is plausible it was here much earlier. I do not see why so many people are saying it is impossible it was not here earlier than February, investigations/research take time.

I know several Californians that think they had it in December and early January. With the antibody testing we will confirm if this is true or not. The sequencing models will grow and we will get a better understanding of the timeline.

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again, literally no one is saying this.

I am quite sure several are saying that.