https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2020/04/22/santa-clara-county-death-data-shows-20-increase-in-march-suggesting-more-coronavirus-victims-than-previously-known/

Perhaps if the virus had turned up in a nursing home in Santa Clara the paths would have appeared more similar. Aside for the nursing home, both States have fairly similarly over achieved from early projections.

That would explain early fatalities, but it does not explain case counts.

We won't get to root of this but case counts is impossible to really know since testing was and is still quite difficult in many places.

That would make more sense.

But the lack of a massive number of confirmed cases once testing was in place is a head scratcher.

k2aggie07 said:

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4 days incubation, hospitalization is common on day 10 of symptoms. So 17 days from incubation to death could be reasonable. The other question is did this person die with COVID19 or from it?

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I agree, 17 days is reasonable. I'm just saying that's with a Jan20 infection date, which is when I'm assuming this persons' earliest date is considered to use the term "late Jan." Each day after Jan 20 that person is infected, the incubation to death timeline shrinks. So, if this person was infected on Jan 25, the incubation to death period shrinks to 12 days. At that point, is that timeline still reasonable and within typical time frames? Maybe so, I honestly don't know.

I agree with your second question. It's an important one as well. Huge difference.

Keegan99 said:

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I'm glad they are doing this. It must have raised some similar questions to him or those around him. At any rate, it will be good to have closer to a certain answer.

Again, I don't think the virus was here in November or December, but it's better to investigate than follow a logic path when the question is on the table. It could possibly have an impact on decision making.

Sure, but there's multiple questions you have to answer to even get to that one.

doesn't diminish the matzo ball

just more work for the scientists

Infection_Ag11 said:

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I'm not sure what the uproar about this discovery is. It changes nothing about previously described timelines, it only poses the question why didn't we see an earlier spike in cases in the region IF this case represented community spread.

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Doc, I'm going to be honest, I don't know the average number of days from date of infection to death. Can you please educate me? I'm genuinely asking.

The dude has said they've genome mapped the virus back to late Jan early Feb. I don't know what the earliest date that means. I'm just saying that with a Jan20 infection date, which is when I'm assuming this persons' earliest date is considered to use the term "late Jan." Each day after Jan 20 that person is infected, the incubation to death timeline shrinks. So, if this person was infected on Jan 25, the incubation to death period shrinks to 12 days. At that point, is that timeline still reasonable and within typical time frames?

K2 makes a good point that another question is did these people die with COVID or because of COVID. That's a huge distinction.

This discovery is about 23 days ahead of the first death we have on record. All this discovery does for me is make me ask the question: are we certain the discovery of these deaths does not change the timeline? If the answer is no, we need to actually investigate instead of following a logic path to make it fit with an already known timeline. I think Governor Newsome answered my question as no and is doing an investigation.

I personally don't believe the virus was here in November or December, but this news does make ask a couple of questions. Call it professional skepticism.

Yep. Very curious what the Wuhan connection is.

That show is terrible.

something is up

what the hell happened in NYC

is it just mass transit and multi-generational living?

cone said:

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something is up

what the hell happened in NYC

is it just mass transit and multi-generational living?

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It is a worthy question to answer. We might not ever know.

I just personally don't think that is the only question that arises from this discovery.

100%

Do we know the average time from infection to death at this moment?

The only info I've been able to find so far is what we generally know - 4-5 day incubation period, 7-10 days before it becomes severe (if it does), 3-6 weeks to recover.

Is there information out there on the average time from infection to death? I think I'm just not searching properly.

slacker00 said:

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The thread title says December ,not Jan/Feb.

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Yet the comments clearly refute those months as well. Gotta read beyond the headline.

cone said:

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something is up

what the hell happened in NYC

is it just mass transit and multi-generational living?

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https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/cuomo-coronavirus-nursing-home-policy-proves-tragic-goodwin/

Cuomo has been forcing nursing homes to admit and readmit patients who tested positive. That can't help.

Quote:

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Mullin had another complaint, too that the media never asked the governor about an order mandating that nursing homes admit and readmit patients who tested positive for the coronavirus, despite the extraordinary number of deaths among the elderly.

That drought ended Monday when The Post's Bernadette Hogan asked about the policy at Cuomo's daily briefing. His answer was stunning.

"That's a good question. I don't know," the governor said.

He turned to Howard Zucker, the state health commissioner, who confirmed the policy, saying "if you are positive, you should be admitted back to a nursing home. The necessary precautions will be taken to protect the other residents there."

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Infection_Ag11 said:

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I'm not sure what the uproar about this discovery is. It changes nothing about previously described timelines, it only poses the question why didn't we see an earlier spike in cases in the region IF this case represented community spread.

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Because cases only are known if people become symptomatic and then become tested. Did the common person even know what the symptoms were in January (except for dry cough, high fever and not being able to smell, I'm not sure I still do). Can't there be community spread and the effects/symptoms be so weak that it goes almost unnoticed? Or maybe it gets spread (superspread?) within a generally healthy community and eventually kills itself off.

Most of the clusters we see are in closed systems (high viral loads) of unhealthy people (nursing homes and hospitals). It seems sensible that a cluster of healthy, active carriers may get exposed and infected in microdoses or smaller viral loads that allow the immune system catch up and fight before symptoms are known.



The NYC experience may actually be traced back to cultural differences in the Jewish and Italian neighborhoods. I dont want to make cultural assumptions but from my very anecdotal experience, there's a lot more anti-vaxx sentiment in NYC than you may believe especially given that its common to greet people with hugs, kisses, handshakes and even common to touch others when talking and trying to get a point across




edit to add Santa Clara is one of Cali's healthier counties :
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/20/this-bay-area-county-was-just-ranked-the-healthiest-in-california/

Quote:

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The study from health care startup Voro ranked the healthiest counties across the U.S. and California by analyzing a range of variables, including life expectancy, smoking, obesity, and activity rates, access to exercise and medical care, insurance coverage, and air pollution. The results: San Francisco was the healthiest county in the state and healthier than 98% of all U.S. counties. Marin County ranked second in California, Santa Cruz was fourth, just ahead of San Mateo (5) and Alameda Counties (7). Santa Clara County ranked number 10, just ahead of Contra Costa County at 11

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Could the virus had hit SF county and spread but because SF and NoCA is so damn healthy, no one even noticed?

NY Times LINK

Quote:

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Ms. Dowd, whose case was confirmed this week, worked at a company that had offices around the world, including in Wuhan, China

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Quote:

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A longtime friend said that on Feb. 2, Ms. Dowd had complained of flulike symptoms. Four days later, he said, she was working from home, still feeling under the weather. Her daughter came home and found her collapsed at the breakfast bar in her kitchen

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Not all of the puzzle pieces around this case but a few.

Quote:

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that allow the immune system catch up and fight before symptoms are known.

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you just don't notice you have pneumonia

asymptomatic doesn't necessarily mean your immune system fought it off without impact

Then you're not counted as a case and even though you've been part of community spread. The underlying argument is that it seems segments of communities are infected but are showing little to no symptoms (you see this within households even). When people say we would have seen cases, they mean hospitalizations. Well, maybe not if the spread occurred in a healthy community and viral loads were low, right? Especially early on when the general population didn't know what symptoms to be aware of.

Officials now suggesting December introduction and circulation?

Evidently the February 6th death was due to community spread, which makes a mid January introduction a very, very tight window.