Oklahoma opens hair and nail salons today

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jebeka
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6:57a, 4/24/20
While that sounds good or bad the bottom line is these places are going under. They need to push customers through at a decent rate to make money. Obviously, cleaning and distancing will reduce volume. Fear if infection will reduce volume as well. Their business model doesn't work. Same for restaurants which open next week and bars in mid-May.

Ultimately, you see a mountain of business going out of business. There will still be demand for these services and the answer is much higher prices. Expect a 50% reduction in businesses. Yes, you will be able to go to a restaurant but expect a standard $15 meal cost $50. Same with hair. Supercuts will cut your hair for $50 vs $15. Bars will be the same. Essentially double the cost and expect to get kicked out pretty quickly. Their will be no tolerance for social fouls.

Of course at first there will be discounts but that won't last long.
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oglaw
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6:59a, 4/24/20
AG
$50 for a haircut at Supercuts? They might as well go ahead and close down.
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jebeka
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7:01a, 4/24/20
A hair place in Georgia said they would only do men's hair because it's quicker and it would be one customer per hour!
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$3 Sack of Groceries
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7:06a, 4/24/20
AG
You don't seem to have a very good grasp of economics and how the market works.
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jebeka
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7:09a, 4/24/20
So are you saying one hair cut an hour is a good business model?
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OKCAg2002
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7:43a, 4/24/20
AG
Innovation will be the result of this external pressure. You're correct. The "normal" business model of customers waiting for a haircut and then sitting in a chair for 15 minutes isn't going to fly. I suspect you see more in-home services for things like this in the future. I'm not sure how the price will compare between a $15 haircut at Supercuts and Supercuts at home. Obviously, it'll be more for the convenience factor. The market will determine that.
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Gramercy Riffs
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In reply to jebeka • 7:55a, 4/24/20
AG
Nm... I may be misinterpreting that post
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Keller6Ag91
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In reply to jebeka • 8:14a, 4/24/20
AG
Gig'Em and God Bless,

JB'91
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aginlakeway
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In reply to jebeka • 8:22a, 4/24/20
AG
jebeka said:
While that sounds good or bad the bottom line is these places are going under. They need to push customers through at a decent rate to make money. Obviously, cleaning and distancing will reduce volume. Fear if infection will reduce volume as well. Their business model doesn't work. Same for restaurants which open next week and bars in mid-May.

Ultimately, you see a mountain of business going out of business. There will still be demand for these services and the answer is much higher prices. Expect a 50% reduction in businesses. Yes, you will be able to go to a restaurant but expect a standard $15 meal cost $50. Same with hair. Supercuts will cut your hair for $50 vs $15. Bars will be the same. Essentially double the cost and expect to get kicked out pretty quickly. Their will be no tolerance for social fouls.

Of course at first there will be discounts but that won't last long.

Seriously? A $50 haircut at Supercuts? And a $15 meal will be $50?

When will this new pricing take effect?

Have any stock tips?
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Joe Exotic
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In reply to OKCAg2002 • 8:22a, 4/24/20
AG
Great Clips has an app where you can check in online for your haircut and wait in your car until it's your turn. I see this being more useful now.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to Joe Exotic • 8:26a, 4/24/20
AG
Joe Exotic said:
Great Clips has an app where you can check in online for your haircut and wait in your car until it's your turn. I see this being more useful now.

Agree. Less traffic inside will be common for a while.

It'll be interesting to see how restaurants handle this when they open. Fewer tables?
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KlinkerAg11
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In reply to aginlakeway • 8:30a, 4/24/20
AG
I would anticipate half capacity and a masked up staff.

I think it will be good for the consumer but will cause other issues for the worker in the short term.
(half capacity half staff)

IF these regulations stay you'll end up with more restaurants to fill the void, but i'm not sure if this will be a long term situation. I tend to think it won't be.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to KlinkerAg11 • 8:33a, 4/24/20
AG
KlinkerAg11 said:
I would anticipate half capacity and a masked up staff.

I think it will be good for the consumer but will cause other issues for the worker in the short term.
(half capacity half staff)

IF these regulations stay you'll end up with more restaurants to fill the void, but i'm not sure if this will be a long term situation. I tend to think it won't be.
Agree.

We have probably done more meals via delivery and to go orders in last month than we would have normally gone out to eat during that same time.

We've been trying to order from the same places we like to eat out at. They seem to be surviving. We've actually grown used to taking out ... it's easier in many ways. Less chips tho if you're taking out Mexican.
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TxAG#2011
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9:11a, 4/24/20
I don't see any scenario the bar life will come back soon. A bunch of drunk people crammed into a confined space just isn't realistic right now.
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jebeka
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9:13a, 4/24/20
Half capacity equals bankruptcy. If you operated at a government imposed half capacity you have to double your price on hair cuts. Businesses won't double the price because there it too much supply and not enough demand. They will go under.

Eventually you will have high vacancy rates which will depress lease rates. Then you can open a high end hair salon and cater to lower volume higher price customers. Large chains might be able to weather the storm but the local independent companies will fail. The same will occur in restaurants.

Think 1960's and 1970's. Families didn't go to restaurants. When they did there were half as many choices. Fast food will still be affordable they get most of their income through drive thru.

Darden restaurants will be open but expect higher prices. Once they drive the smaller restaurants out of business Olive Garden will raise prices. Darden can operate their chains at a loss for a few years but the local restaurants that compete with these companies can't. Strong franchise companies might subsidize their franchisees but weak franchise companies won't be able to subsidize their franchisees and the will go bankrupt. Again, once competition is removed prices will increase to the point that the lower occupancy rates can be made profitable. Eventually, small independent restaurants will be able to start over once leases come down and restaurants prices go up.

This will be very painful. I expect all our well capitalized banks will eventually be stressed as bankruptcies grow. We will come out of this but it will take years not months and there will be high unemployment for quite some time.
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annie88
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9:13a, 4/24/20
AG
Good for Oklahoma. Texas should too.
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crowman2010
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9:14a, 4/24/20
AG
Really glad to see the dumbest posts in this thread are not by people with Ag tags...
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normaleagle05
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9:14a, 4/24/20
AG
It's an amazing observational moment in human psychology watching how short our attention span is in regard to how short our attention span is. All of society is not going to cower in fear into the distant future to the point of fundamentally altering how we get a haircut.
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crowman2010
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In reply to jebeka • 9:17a, 4/24/20
AG
jebeka said:
Half capacity equals bankruptcy. If you operated at a government imposed half capacity you have to double your price on hair cuts. Businesses won't double the price because there it too much supply and not enough demand. They will go under.
So...you're saying if we half capacity...there's still going to be a surplus? That doesn't make much sense.
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TxAG#2011
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In reply to jebeka • 9:18a, 4/24/20
Leases are already down. You already have landlords giving rent deferment, reductions, abatement, etc. They know there is nobody else to occupy that space right now.
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Betoisafurry
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9:20a, 4/24/20
When have you ever been into a hair salon or barber shop and seen it packed? At most there is 2-3 people waiting and 3-4 employees working out of 15-20 chairs. What a terrible take.
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Harkrider 93
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In reply to jebeka • 9:23a, 4/24/20
AG
jebeka said:
While that sounds good or bad the bottom line is these places are going under. They need to push customers through at a decent rate to make money. Obviously, cleaning and distancing will reduce volume. Fear if infection will reduce volume as well. Their business model doesn't work. Same for restaurants which open next week and bars in mid-May.

Ultimately, you see a mountain of business going out of business. There will still be demand for these services and the answer is much higher prices. Expect a 50% reduction in businesses. Yes, you will be able to go to a restaurant but expect a standard $15 meal cost $50. Same with hair. Supercuts will cut your hair for $50 vs $15. Bars will be the same. Essentially double the cost and expect to get kicked out pretty quickly. Their will be no tolerance for social fouls.

Of course at first there will be discounts but that won't last long.
Just a minor detail.

You keep saying double, but take $15 to $50.

To me, this more than tripling tells me what you are really up to here.
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KlinkerAg11
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9:24a, 4/24/20
AG
No doubt half capacity will strain the business, I'll be curious how they will navigate.

I just anticipate it will lead to lower staff, probably less menu options, and more to go orders.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to Harkrider 93 • 9:25a, 4/24/20
AG
Harkrider 93 said:
jebeka said:
While that sounds good or bad the bottom line is these places are going under. They need to push customers through at a decent rate to make money. Obviously, cleaning and distancing will reduce volume. Fear if infection will reduce volume as well. Their business model doesn't work. Same for restaurants which open next week and bars in mid-May.

Ultimately, you see a mountain of business going out of business. There will still be demand for these services and the answer is much higher prices. Expect a 50% reduction in businesses. Yes, you will be able to go to a restaurant but expect a standard $15 meal cost $50. Same with hair. Supercuts will cut your hair for $50 vs $15. Bars will be the same. Essentially double the cost and expect to get kicked out pretty quickly. Their will be no tolerance for social fouls.

Of course at first there will be discounts but that won't last long.
Just a minor detail.

You keep saying double, but take $15 to $50.

To me, this more than tripling tell me what you are really up to here.
Yep. Supercuts ain't going from $15 to $50. Ridiculous.
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crowman2010
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In reply to Betoisafurry • 9:25a, 4/24/20
AG
Charlie Kelley said:
When have you ever been into a hair salon or barber shop and seen it packed? At most there is 2-3 people waiting and 3-4 employees working out of 15-20 chairs. What a terrible take.
THIS!
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YouBet
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9:26a, 4/24/20
AG
If this is true, I'm screwed. I will be paying somewhere in the neighborhood of $300 for my haircut.

Lol.
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Rosehill92
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9:27a, 4/24/20
AG
My wife owns a hair salon and as long as they eventually get that PPP loan that is supposedly coming and they are allowed to open in early May they will be fine. If it drags another month, then it is gonna hurt. They are fully booked for the 1st week of May already. Suburban women with gray roots aren't THAT scared of the virus!
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waitwhat?
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In reply to jebeka • 9:28a, 4/24/20
jebeka said:
Half capacity equals bankruptcy. If you operated at a government imposed half capacity you have to double your price on hair cuts. Businesses won't double the price because there it too much supply and not enough demand. They will go under.

Eventually you will have high vacancy rates which will depress lease rates. Then you can open a high end hair salon and cater to lower volume higher price customers. Large chains might be able to weather the storm but the local independent companies will fail. The same will occur in restaurants.

Think 1960's and 1970's. Families didn't go to restaurants. When they did there were half as many choices. Fast food will still be affordable they get most of their income through drive thru.

Darden restaurants will be open but expect higher prices. Once they drive the smaller restaurants out of business Olive Garden will raise prices. Darden can operate their chains at a loss for a few years but the local restaurants that compete with these companies can't. Strong franchise companies might subsidize their franchisees but weak franchise companies won't be able to subsidize their franchisees and the will go bankrupt. Again, once competition is removed prices will increase to the point that the lower occupancy rates can be made profitable. Eventually, small independent restaurants will be able to start over once leases come down and restaurants prices go up.

This will be very painful. I expect all our well capitalized banks will eventually be stressed as bankruptcies grow. We will come out of this but it will take years not months and there will be high unemployment for quite some time.
As demand decreases the business will take on less costs to meet demand. Like, the restaurant won't buy as much food and alcohol. They'll try to buy just enough to meet demand.

You're assuming they continue to have the same costs, and now have to increase prices to get to equilibrium. Supply/demand is a curve for a reason.

We'll see $50 meals at Olive Garden, but far in the future and as a result of inflation and the dollar losing value over time. In the short term, if OG can't survive without charging $50 for a plate of chicken alfredo, they won't survive at all.
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HotardAg07
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9:36a, 4/24/20
AG
If I were a professional hair cutter, I think i'd prefer to just go to people's houses and cut their hair outside in the drive way with my own temporary setup. wipe down everything between uses with disinfectant. I think that's the safest thing and i imagine there's a good market for it. You could get people to line up a bunch of appointments in a row. We used to do it pre-corona with my 3 kids because it was cheaper/easier that way. I've been cutting their hair myself lately.
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DadHammer
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In reply to Rosehill92 • 9:53a, 4/24/20
AG
Rosehill92 said:
My wife owns a hair salon and as long as they eventually get that PPP loan that is supposedly coming and they are allowed to open in early May they will be fine. If it drags another month, then it is gonna hurt. They are fully booked for the 1st week of May already. Suburban women with gray roots aren't THAT scared of the virus!

Those grey roots are scarier than covid.

That's funny.
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GAC06
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9:54a, 4/24/20
AG
When I get my hair cut, I call my barber and make an appointment. Then I go and there's maybe 5-6 people total in the room. I bet it will be the same price.

This thread makes my head hurt.
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PJYoung
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9:56a, 4/24/20
AG
I got a haircut at Sports Clips like a month ago a day before they were closed down by the county.

The staff all wore masks and there was a limit of 10 people inside.

I would imagine that will be standard for places like that until there's a vaccine.

I think you will see a marked difference over time between counties/states that require the public to wear masks and those who don't.
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fullback44
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10:07a, 4/24/20
AG
I need a hair cut, if I go 24 hrs without washing my hair it feels like it has grease in it, I guess that's because I usually wear my hair shorter and the long hair feels different... I cant wait to get a haircut
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jebeka
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11:07a, 4/24/20
My wife use to go to the nail salon. She's decided to eliminate it and let them grow out as opposed to having them removed. She cancelled her spa membership even though they offered her no payments for a few months. I use to go to a chiropractor maybe once a month or every other month. I don't see myself going unless it's an issue. I use to go to super cuts but my wife can cut it just fine.

Now, I am positive that she will get her hair done. She can't do it herself. She might cut back or just delay going. If everyone that goes twice per month decides to go once per month that equates to a reduction in business. Then you have guys that can get it done at home for free. My wife can cut my hair just as well as super cuts. She use to do it but it became easier to just swing in and get it done. Now I think I'd prefer to wait for her to cut it.

For most of the other elective services I suspect you will see a big drop off. Then you get government operating restrictions put on top. There is a nail salon on every corner. How many will make it? How many 50 seat restaurants can make it at 50% capacity during lunch and dinner. How many bars can make it with seats 6 feet apart?

Restaurants will likely have more demand than supply because of government restrictions. Some will be able to raise prices and survive but the ones that were barely marginal will go under.

If you owned 3 restaurants or nail salons or beauty salons and one did great business and the other 2 use to break even or turned a small profit. Now, you open back up and you find a 25% reduction in business. You now have 2 locations operating at a loss and you top location doing ok but can't cover the loses the other 2 locations are making. You can close those locations but you have lease obligations. If the lease obligations can be covered by your only operating location maybe you can get by. If not, then you are going under. Now, you might come out of bankruptcies with that one location but that's it. You have let go 2/3rds of your employees.
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Capitol Ag
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11:26a, 4/24/20
AG
One thing not accounted for in all of this is that all of this precautionary environment is temporary. Yes, very unfortunately there will be some businesses that fail. But the salon business model will go back to normal when all of this passes. Either with a vaccine/other medical ways to treat patients with covid, a herd immunity overall or with people just not giving a blank b/c they are tired of having to be so OCD all the time. But one way or the other all of this will eventually pass and you will be in restaurants within a foot or so of others and waiting for a haircut next to strangers and you won't even think about it anymore.

tl;dr version: the "old normal" will be normal again. The obvious question is when, but it is...

Inevitable

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