There will be no vaccine announced in that time frame. There will likely be the same anecdotal evidence of various meds having various levels of success. I understand the debate surrounding opening things up this week, but for those that are against it...what if? Do we keep things closed?
what if things are no different in 6-8 weeks?
8,498 Views |
93 Replies |
Last: 5 yr ago by Refman
There is no scenario other than mass chaos and thousands of triaged patients literally dying in the streets that justifies any shutdown in 6 weeks.
It is a fair question of what happens next and/or what should we expect. The initial shutdowns were sold as "flattening the curve" but in reality we survived without reaching critical mass at most hospitals quite easily. Instead we have used the extra time to learn since no one really knew how bad it was going to be.
Unfortunately, to me it looks like our options are varying levels of full steam ahead or shelter in place. I don't think we have the stomach or the organization to do an extended shelter in place. That leaves us to proceed along a course of most everyone eventually getting infected, unless we make some medical breakthroughs to prevent that and/or reduce the outcome of infection.
Unfortunately, to me it looks like our options are varying levels of full steam ahead or shelter in place. I don't think we have the stomach or the organization to do an extended shelter in place. That leaves us to proceed along a course of most everyone eventually getting infected, unless we make some medical breakthroughs to prevent that and/or reduce the outcome of infection.
If nothing is changed? Well, that's easy.
Hospitals will start to go out of business because of lack of pts that bring in revenue to keep them afloat. They are already furloughing nurses and doctors due to lack of census.
We will continue staying in our houses and letting the government tell us that we arent allowed to leave, violating our constitutional rights giving them subtle approval that this is OK or, at the minimum, that we will simply comply with it if the crisis is sufficiently hyped enough to make the response socially palatable.
More people will lose their jobs...and get overinflated unemployment checks for sitting on their asses and creating an artificial incentive for them to not go back to work.
Our economic recession will trudge toward being a great Global Depression and we will march slowly towards socialism. As a result of the aforementioned global recession, tens to hundred of millions globally will be plunged into poverty, several million of those into abject poverty; another hundred million will starve and perish in a famine of such magnitude the world has never before seen (outside of the Great Leap Forward, of course, cause, you know, irony). No fairy-fart charts required for this prediction.
And, as far as Texas is concerned... if our current rate holds....about 2000-4000 people will have died of this thing since mid-March.
And of course the most obvious...the virus still will not have magically vanished because we hid from it and will still be around. Spoiler alert: #SaferAtHome is not a vaccine, therapy, or prophylactic... it's ostrich-head-in-the-sand-type strategy.
We need to start taking calculated risks, protect the vulnerable, and get on with life.
Hospitals will start to go out of business because of lack of pts that bring in revenue to keep them afloat. They are already furloughing nurses and doctors due to lack of census.
We will continue staying in our houses and letting the government tell us that we arent allowed to leave, violating our constitutional rights giving them subtle approval that this is OK or, at the minimum, that we will simply comply with it if the crisis is sufficiently hyped enough to make the response socially palatable.
More people will lose their jobs...and get overinflated unemployment checks for sitting on their asses and creating an artificial incentive for them to not go back to work.
Our economic recession will trudge toward being a great Global Depression and we will march slowly towards socialism. As a result of the aforementioned global recession, tens to hundred of millions globally will be plunged into poverty, several million of those into abject poverty; another hundred million will starve and perish in a famine of such magnitude the world has never before seen (outside of the Great Leap Forward, of course, cause, you know, irony). No fairy-fart charts required for this prediction.
And, as far as Texas is concerned... if our current rate holds....about 2000-4000 people will have died of this thing since mid-March.
And of course the most obvious...the virus still will not have magically vanished because we hid from it and will still be around. Spoiler alert: #SaferAtHome is not a vaccine, therapy, or prophylactic... it's ostrich-head-in-the-sand-type strategy.
We need to start taking calculated risks, protect the vulnerable, and get on with life.
I am all for opening up in phases starting now but 11 days ago the United States had 25k dead from this thing. Now we are over 50k. The numbers will continue to be ugly and I don't see how we are staying under 100k dead before June.
I am guessing we will be bumping up against 250k dead before the year is out unless we have some kind of massive change like a proven therapeutic.
I am guessing we will be bumping up against 250k dead before the year is out unless we have some kind of massive change like a proven therapeutic.
PJYoung said:
I am all for opening up in phases starting now but 11 days ago the United States had 25k dead from this thing. Now we are over 50k. The numbers will continue to be ugly and I don't see how we are staying under 100k dead before June.
I am guessing we will be bumping up against 250k dead before the year is out unless we have some kind of massive change like a proven therapeutic.
And every day you stay locked down endangers the supply of every good and service you have become accustomed to...including non-covid medical.
No...this is not the flu. It is much worse. But there are worse things still and you need to know we are staring that in the face also.
There is no solution to be had here. None. Only trade-offs.
I think the debate about reopening, even a slow, phased in reopening includes a factor that has been mentioned by several govt officials at the Fed and state level but, in my observation, is rarely mentioned by the msm. The msm seems totally fixated on NYC and other densely populated areas, which really do NOT represent what is happening in most of the country.
That factor is that reopening can and should be done when hospitals and medical systems can MANAGE the number of cases that develop and we are not overwhelmed with new COVID-19 patients.
"Manage" doesn't mean there are no or very few new cases. It means those cases can be HANDLED, along with everyday normal hospital admissions not COVID-19 related.
NYC is a special case, obviously, but the Hospital Ship has left, emergency medical facilities were constructed but not used, etc. Same thing in Seattle - temporary hospitals were set up, were hardly used, and have now been taken down.
In OK the Governor had the Nat Guard survey sports arenas, convention centers, etc as possible sites for temporary medical facilities. Meanwhile our REAL hospitals never came close to reaching capacity and many, many hospital were basically ghost towns, since regular surgeries, etc, were cancelled. That's all changed now. Our state is doing elective surgeries starting today and hospital staff that was furloughed is coming back to work. I think our experience with empty hospitals is common in many, many other states.
Will we have more positive cases, hospitalizations, deaths? Of course we will. But we have the RESOURCES to handle that load. And IF things go south (they haven't yet in our state and most other states) plans can be quickly put in place to reinstitute some restrictions. Not all - I think we have learned which ones make sense and which don't.
The msm, and Fox as well, are fixated on NYC and a handful of other localized hot spots. All we hear about is NYC and the TV news shows are constantly covering Coumo and his hours long ***** sessions.
That factor is that reopening can and should be done when hospitals and medical systems can MANAGE the number of cases that develop and we are not overwhelmed with new COVID-19 patients.
"Manage" doesn't mean there are no or very few new cases. It means those cases can be HANDLED, along with everyday normal hospital admissions not COVID-19 related.
NYC is a special case, obviously, but the Hospital Ship has left, emergency medical facilities were constructed but not used, etc. Same thing in Seattle - temporary hospitals were set up, were hardly used, and have now been taken down.
In OK the Governor had the Nat Guard survey sports arenas, convention centers, etc as possible sites for temporary medical facilities. Meanwhile our REAL hospitals never came close to reaching capacity and many, many hospital were basically ghost towns, since regular surgeries, etc, were cancelled. That's all changed now. Our state is doing elective surgeries starting today and hospital staff that was furloughed is coming back to work. I think our experience with empty hospitals is common in many, many other states.
Will we have more positive cases, hospitalizations, deaths? Of course we will. But we have the RESOURCES to handle that load. And IF things go south (they haven't yet in our state and most other states) plans can be quickly put in place to reinstitute some restrictions. Not all - I think we have learned which ones make sense and which don't.
The msm, and Fox as well, are fixated on NYC and a handful of other localized hot spots. All we hear about is NYC and the TV news shows are constantly covering Coumo and his hours long ***** sessions.
The biggest disappointment is we are at the end of April and still do not have large-scale testing and tracing that would allow for reopening. One of the largest lockdown reasons was to adequately ramp up critical supplies such as PPE as well as testing which we were unprepared for. In the meantime we don't overload the hospital system. Six weeks later we've managed the first wave, have a better treatment protocol than when we've started and have handled some of the supply issues.
But testing has not really accelerated. That's a big reason we are still looking at a few more weeks of this.
But testing has not really accelerated. That's a big reason we are still looking at a few more weeks of this.
This was ALWAYS the path we were going to have to take.slacker00 said:
It is a fair question of what happens next and/or what should we expect. The initial shutdowns were sold as "flattening the curve" but in reality we survived without reaching critical mass at most hospitals quite easily. Instead we have used the extra time to learn since no one really knew how bad it was going to be.
Unfortunately, to me it looks like our options are varying levels of full steam ahead or shelter in place. I don't think we have the stomach or the organization to do an extended shelter in place. That leaves us to proceed along a course of most everyone eventually getting infected, unless we make some medical breakthroughs to prevent that and/or reduce the outcome of infection.
The problem is that message was somehow lost for too many people.
I don’t say this in a braggedocious way. But it’s true. I’ve been right about everything.
-Donald J Trump
-9/22/2025
-Donald J Trump
-9/22/2025
Quote:
But testing has not really accelerated. That's a big reason we are still looking at a few more weeks of this.
A few more weeks of shutting down? Seriously?
it will just just be June...and hotter
Agree with majority of responses and VERY glad to see the discussion.
Kicking the can down the road is not going to gain us anything at this point. Now we just need enough political leaders to have the testicular fortitude to stick their necks out and start admitting the reality of the situation.
Kicking the can down the road is not going to gain us anything at this point. Now we just need enough political leaders to have the testicular fortitude to stick their necks out and start admitting the reality of the situation.
2 more weeks.
We got notice today from the Texas Supreme Court that the Texas Courts are continuing the shutdown until June 1st. The Feds extended it to June 1st last week. All grand juries and speedy trial rights will stay suspended until at least June 1st.
I have a sneaky suspicion we are not anywhere close to wide open anytime soon.
I have a sneaky suspicion we are not anywhere close to wide open anytime soon.
Why do say that.... as the fda said today there are 60+ approved tests and we have excess capacity.Ranger222 said:
The biggest disappointment is we are at the end of April and still do not have large-scale testing and tracing that would allow for reopening. One of the largest lockdown reasons was to adequately ramp up critical supplies such as PPE as well as testing which we were unprepared for. In the meantime we don't overload the hospital system. Six weeks later we've managed the first wave, have a better treatment protocol than when we've started and have handled some of the supply issues.
But testing has not really accelerated. That's a big reason we are still looking at a few more weeks of this.
I know cnn wants you to believe them , but they are wrong
Participation trophies caused all of this
So if nothing changes in 6 weeks ?
Like .0007% of population of Texas got the virus
Many recovered with only mild symptoms
Very very few even required an overnight hospital stay
Death rate of .00002% of the population
I'll take my chances
If this continues for 6-8 more weeks you're gonna see much more problems than this virus could ever cause.
Like .0007% of population of Texas got the virus
Many recovered with only mild symptoms
Very very few even required an overnight hospital stay
Death rate of .00002% of the population
I'll take my chances
If this continues for 6-8 more weeks you're gonna see much more problems than this virus could ever cause.
PJYoung said:
I am all for opening up in phases starting now but 11 days ago the United States had 25k dead from this thing. Now we are over 50k. The numbers will continue to be ugly and I don't see how we are staying under 100k dead before June.
I am guessing we will be bumping up against 250k dead before the year is out unless we have some kind of massive change like a proven therapeutic.
And nearly half that total came from New York and New Jersey alone.
And yes some young and healthy people have died but that is the minority of the minority.
Overwhelming number of deaths extreme elderly, underlying conditions and many even already in hospice care.
But yeah let's shut down the whole country for another month and a half.
Brilliant
Young people are still dying....young people are still developing ARDS. That is what scares me the most. I understand the economic downfall, but we can't open things up yet.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Doug Ross said:
Young people are still dying....young people are still developing ARDS. That is what scares me the most. I understand the economic downfall, but we can't open things up yet.
Then when?
6 moths ?
8 months?
A year when a vaccine is readily available?
The numbers alone do not support keeping everything shut down... and for people under 50 they for sure don't support the shut down
Why are you basing your opinions on the outliers? For the vast majority that get infected it's not much different than any other respiratory virus.
You cant just keep it shut trying to avoid getting it. Most of us are eventually going to get it.Doug Ross said:
Young people are still dying....young people are still developing ARDS. That is what scares me the most. I understand the economic downfall, but we can't open things up yet.
I don’t say this in a braggedocious way. But it’s true. I’ve been right about everything.
-Donald J Trump
-9/22/2025
-Donald J Trump
-9/22/2025
What do you expect to change two months from now? It goes away? A treatment is developed?Doug Ross said:
Young people are still dying....young people are still developing ARDS. That is what scares me the most. I understand the economic downfall, but we can't open things up yet.
I agree with the argument on "hospital capacity is fine" however, it is based on the scenario of a lockdown.
Texas has been "locked down" for a month. Of course there was less spread.
The fear is that once I got back to the bowling alley and eat hot wings and drink beer, I'm going to infect everyone and the system DOES become overloaded, 3 months from now.
I think this has mostly come down to political positioning for voters. And some nefarious ones. If they allow the vote to be mailed in, socialist democrat will win because all of the worthless sit at homes will get paid to vote by the Blue.
People are worried about the elderly vote, because they vote! And they're the ones dying from this.
People worry about the economy because promising jobs and prosperity means votes.
It's coming down to "how do you value an American life?" Some people think it's invaluable for one to die from this disease. Others think, for every death of COVID there may be 3 deaths or stress related conditions, suicide, starvation, etc.
Texas has been "locked down" for a month. Of course there was less spread.
The fear is that once I got back to the bowling alley and eat hot wings and drink beer, I'm going to infect everyone and the system DOES become overloaded, 3 months from now.
I think this has mostly come down to political positioning for voters. And some nefarious ones. If they allow the vote to be mailed in, socialist democrat will win because all of the worthless sit at homes will get paid to vote by the Blue.
People are worried about the elderly vote, because they vote! And they're the ones dying from this.
People worry about the economy because promising jobs and prosperity means votes.
It's coming down to "how do you value an American life?" Some people think it's invaluable for one to die from this disease. Others think, for every death of COVID there may be 3 deaths or stress related conditions, suicide, starvation, etc.
This virus is here to stay. You can't hide in your house from this virus. It will be there tomorrow, next week, next month. It's already here period.
I will never understand this logic. We should open up already but safely. We will have the same number of deaths whether we open up today or two months from now.
We better open up today before there are no hospitals to help the sick because they went bankrupt with the rest of us.
I will never understand this logic. We should open up already but safely. We will have the same number of deaths whether we open up today or two months from now.
We better open up today before there are no hospitals to help the sick because they went bankrupt with the rest of us.
agsalaska said:This was ALWAYS the path we were going to have to take.slacker00 said:
It is a fair question of what happens next and/or what should we expect. The initial shutdowns were sold as "flattening the curve" but in reality we survived without reaching critical mass at most hospitals quite easily. Instead we have used the extra time to learn since no one really knew how bad it was going to be.
Unfortunately, to me it looks like our options are varying levels of full steam ahead or shelter in place. I don't think we have the stomach or the organization to do an extended shelter in place. That leaves us to proceed along a course of most everyone eventually getting infected, unless we make some medical breakthroughs to prevent that and/or reduce the outcome of infection.
The problem is that message wassomehow lost for too many people. buried by the MSM who unfortunately influences the minds of many sheep.
DadHammer said:
This virus is here to stay. You can't hide in your house from this virus. It will be there tomorrow, next week, next month. It's already here period.
I will never understand this logic. We should open up already but safely. We will have the same number of deaths whether we open up today or two months from now.
We better open up today before there are no hospitals to help the sick because they went bankrupt with the rest of us.
CT75 said:agsalaska said:This was ALWAYS the path we were going to have to take.slacker00 said:
It is a fair question of what happens next and/or what should we expect. The initial shutdowns were sold as "flattening the curve" but in reality we survived without reaching critical mass at most hospitals quite easily. Instead we have used the extra time to learn since no one really knew how bad it was going to be.
Unfortunately, to me it looks like our options are varying levels of full steam ahead or shelter in place. I don't think we have the stomach or the organization to do an extended shelter in place. That leaves us to proceed along a course of most everyone eventually getting infected, unless we make some medical breakthroughs to prevent that and/or reduce the outcome of infection.
The problem is that message wassomehow lost for too many people. buried by the MSM who unfortunately influences the minds of many sheep.
So the path forward is that everybody will get it eventually? By eventually I assume you mean in the next 12-18 months prior to a vaccine? We have 23k positive cases in Texas and 29 million people. I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around 20+ million in Texas getting infected over the next 12-18 months.
Player To Be Named Later
Joined:
Sep 22, 2003
Posts:
23,249
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
A lot of people are clinging the flawed study out of Stanford that suggests we have upwards of 50x as many cases than we know about.
So we which flawed study are we supposed to believe?Player To Be Named Later said:
A lot of people are clinging the flawed study out of Stanford that suggests we have upwards of 50x as many cases than we know about.
The tu one that in less than 24 hours said the peak was still coming in May for Texas, but the next day said it passed? Others? I have no faith in any of the "models"
The only "study" that has been accurate is that if we do not get back to work, the economic impact will be significant and the loss of life/opportunity will increase.
Player To Be Named Later
Joined:
Sep 22, 2003
Posts:
23,249
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Honestly, right now I'm not really buying many "studies". Pretty much every single study from every aspect so far has been greatly flawed.tamc93 said:So we which flawed study are we supposed to believe?Player To Be Named Later said:
A lot of people are clinging the flawed study out of Stanford that suggests we have upwards of 50x as many cases than we know about.
The tu one that in less than 24 hours said the peak was still coming in May for Texas, but the next day said it passed? Others? I have no faith in any of the "models"
The only "study" that has been accurate is that if we do not get back to work, the economic impact will be significant and the loss of life/opportunity will increase.
Agree. The only one I am still interested to see in the future is the net difference in non-accident related deaths - I doubt the news will ever publish that one.
Time to move forward.
Time to move forward.
Player To Be Named Later
Joined:
Sep 22, 2003
Posts:
23,249
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I do think we need to start working on plans to open things up. But I think just rushing to 100% "normalcy" overnight is a fool's errand.tamc93 said:
Agree. The only one I am still interested to see in the future is the net difference in non-accident related deaths - I doubt the news will ever publish that one.
Time to move forward.
This thread is pointless. There is ZERO chance that things will be the same in 6-8 weeks as they are today. Hypothetical questions are fine if there is a reasonable chance of occurrence.
Example - you ask hypothetically what if we get stuck in phase 2 because the curve starts going back up. Now that's a discussion because it's possible.
But asking what if nothing changes for the next 6-8 weeks is a total waste because it's not possible. Things are going to change in the next 6-8 weeks. We all know things are going to change in the NEXT 6-8 DAYS in parts of this country.
I don't understand the moderators on this site. This site has so much potential to be better than it is.
Example - you ask hypothetically what if we get stuck in phase 2 because the curve starts going back up. Now that's a discussion because it's possible.
But asking what if nothing changes for the next 6-8 weeks is a total waste because it's not possible. Things are going to change in the next 6-8 weeks. We all know things are going to change in the NEXT 6-8 DAYS in parts of this country.
I don't understand the moderators on this site. This site has so much potential to be better than it is.
Featured Stories
See All
Aggies hit four homers to even the series in Norman, 9-5
by Richard Zane
Perez drives in three in No. 16 A&M's SEC-opening win at No. 17 LSU
by Kayla Gaither
16:22
1d ago
4.0k
No. 22 Aggies fall to No. 9 Oklahoma on Friday night, 8-7
by Richard Zane
11:09
2d ago
9.4k
Troublesome C-minus showing gets A&M dominated by Oklahoma
by Olin Buchanan