The_Fox said:

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JesusQuintana said:

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agsalaska said:

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AggieJosh2002 said:

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There is zero chance things will be the same in 6 weeks ... we won't be back to normal (i.e. kids may not be back to school until 2021), but I believe most businesses will be open (in the modified format that allows for some distancing).

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Why would Elementary school kids not be back in school in August?

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Have you visited ur kid at lunch or viewed first hand an elementary school lunch room? It's a disaster on about a million different levels. If one kid has it they will all have it then the parents will have it, etc. Not saying school should remain closed or not, but it's about the furthest thing from sanitary or social distancing as it gets. This would certainly prove theory on everybody is eventually gonna get it.

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What is the virus fatality risk to elementary aged children and elementary aged children's parent? About the same as being struck by lightning?

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I have no idea. I was just pointing out that if our elected leadership continues on this path of social distancing measures, etc. then one could see why they might be hesitant to open schools.

JesusQuintana said:

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The_Fox said:

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JesusQuintana said:

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agsalaska said:

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AggieJosh2002 said:

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There is zero chance things will be the same in 6 weeks ... we won't be back to normal (i.e. kids may not be back to school until 2021), but I believe most businesses will be open (in the modified format that allows for some distancing).

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Why would Elementary school kids not be back in school in August?

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Have you visited ur kid at lunch or viewed first hand an elementary school lunch room? It's a disaster on about a million different levels. If one kid has it they will all have it then the parents will have it, etc. Not saying school should remain closed or not, but it's about the furthest thing from sanitary or social distancing as it gets. This would certainly prove theory on everybody is eventually gonna get it.

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What is the virus fatality risk to elementary aged children and elementary aged children's parent? About the same as being struck by lightning?

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I have no idea. I was just pointing out that if our elected leadership continues on this path of social distancing measures, etc. then one could see why they might be hesitant to open schools.

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And would that make sense considering the risk to the elementary aged population and their parents?

The_Fox said:

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JesusQuintana said:

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The_Fox said:

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JesusQuintana said:

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agsalaska said:

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AggieJosh2002 said:

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There is zero chance things will be the same in 6 weeks ... we won't be back to normal (i.e. kids may not be back to school until 2021), but I believe most businesses will be open (in the modified format that allows for some distancing).

---

Why would Elementary school kids not be back in school in August?

---

Have you visited ur kid at lunch or viewed first hand an elementary school lunch room? It's a disaster on about a million different levels. If one kid has it they will all have it then the parents will have it, etc. Not saying school should remain closed or not, but it's about the furthest thing from sanitary or social distancing as it gets. This would certainly prove theory on everybody is eventually gonna get it.

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What is the virus fatality risk to elementary aged children and elementary aged children's parent? About the same as being struck by lightning?

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I have no idea. I was just pointing out that if our elected leadership continues on this path of social distancing measures, etc. then one could see why they might be hesitant to open schools.

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And would that make sense considering the risk to the elementary aged population and their parents?

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Whether it makes sense or not to me has zero bearing on anything. I don't make the rules, I just follow them. I have 2 kids in public school and my wife teaches preschool. Hope they are all back but don't u think we have somewhat passed the point of making sense with some of these guidelines? My initial reply was why one could see based on the current state of things, that they might keep the school closed....did not say it makes sense....not much does anymore.

JesusQuintana said:

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The_Fox said:

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JesusQuintana said:

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The_Fox said:

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JesusQuintana said:

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agsalaska said:

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AggieJosh2002 said:

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There is zero chance things will be the same in 6 weeks ... we won't be back to normal (i.e. kids may not be back to school until 2021), but I believe most businesses will be open (in the modified format that allows for some distancing).

---

Why would Elementary school kids not be back in school in August?

---

Have you visited ur kid at lunch or viewed first hand an elementary school lunch room? It's a disaster on about a million different levels. If one kid has it they will all have it then the parents will have it, etc. Not saying school should remain closed or not, but it's about the furthest thing from sanitary or social distancing as it gets. This would certainly prove theory on everybody is eventually gonna get it.

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What is the virus fatality risk to elementary aged children and elementary aged children's parent? About the same as being struck by lightning?

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I have no idea. I was just pointing out that if our elected leadership continues on this path of social distancing measures, etc. then one could see why they might be hesitant to open schools.

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And would that make sense considering the risk to the elementary aged population and their parents?

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Whether it makes sense or not to me has zero bearing on anything. I don't make the rules, I just follow them. I have 2 kids in public school and my wife teaches preschool. Hope they are all back but don't u think we have somewhat passed the point of making sense with some of these guidelines? My initial reply was why one could see based on the current state of things, that they might keep the school closed....did not say it makes sense....not much does anymore.

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I certainly agree with that. I have two elementary aged kids too. Mine are in private school that is closed until at least August. This is getting beyond stupid.

JesusQuintana said:

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The_Fox said:

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JesusQuintana said:

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The_Fox said:

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JesusQuintana said:

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agsalaska said:

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AggieJosh2002 said:

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There is zero chance things will be the same in 6 weeks ... we won't be back to normal (i.e. kids may not be back to school until 2021), but I believe most businesses will be open (in the modified format that allows for some distancing).

---

Why would Elementary school kids not be back in school in August?

---

Have you visited ur kid at lunch or viewed first hand an elementary school lunch room? It's a disaster on about a million different levels. If one kid has it they will all have it then the parents will have it, etc. Not saying school should remain closed or not, but it's about the furthest thing from sanitary or social distancing as it gets. This would certainly prove theory on everybody is eventually gonna get it.

---

What is the virus fatality risk to elementary aged children and elementary aged children's parent? About the same as being struck by lightning?

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I have no idea. I was just pointing out that if our elected leadership continues on this path of social distancing measures, etc. then one could see why they might be hesitant to open schools.

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And would that make sense considering the risk to the elementary aged population and their parents?

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Whether it makes sense or not to me has zero bearing on anything. I don't make the rules, I just follow them. I have 2 kids in public school and my wife teaches preschool. Hope they are all back but don't u think we have somewhat passed the point of making sense with some of these guidelines? My initial reply was why one could see based on the current state of things, that they might keep the school closed....did not say it makes sense....not much does anymore.

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Yea I get it. I wouldnt put it past them too.

I often argue what I think is going to happen instead of what I think should happen as well.

But eventually the kids have to all get it. If they dont then this problem is never going away.

It seems like the Houston area is close to being able to handle the peak case load of the moderate mitigation outcome, which is probably scenarios B and C from the Imperial College study.

Quote:

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We considered the likely scale of four potential scenarios:
A) An unmitigated epidemic a scenario in which no action is taken.
B) Mitigation including population-level social distancing we assessed the maximum reduction in
the final scale of the epidemic that can be achieved through a uniform reduction in the rate at
which individuals contact one another, short of complete suppression.
C) Mitigation including enhanced social distancing of the elderly as (B) but with individuals aged 70
years old and above reducing their social contact rates by 60%.
D) Suppression we explore different epidemiological triggers (deaths per 100,000 population) for
the implementation of wide-scale intensive social distancing (modelled as a 75% reduction in interpersonal contact rates) with the aim to rapidly suppress transmission and minimise near-term cases and deaths. For these scenarios we do not produce final size estimates but illustrate their impact in representative settings.

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The_Fox said:

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JesusQuintana said:

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agsalaska said:

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AggieJosh2002 said:

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There is zero chance things will be the same in 6 weeks ... we won't be back to normal (i.e. kids may not be back to school until 2021), but I believe most businesses will be open (in the modified format that allows for some distancing).

---

Why would Elementary school kids not be back in school in August?

---

Have you visited ur kid at lunch or viewed first hand an elementary school lunch room? It's a disaster on about a million different levels. If one kid has it they will all have it then the parents will have it, etc. Not saying school should remain closed or not, but it's about the furthest thing from sanitary or social distancing as it gets. This would certainly prove theory on everybody is eventually gonna get it.

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What is the virus fatality risk to elementary aged children and elementary aged children's parent? About the same as being struck by lightning?

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I think we can all agree that elementary aged children are going to be just fine.

Here's the conundrum.... say a child has 2 parents that are high risk due to health conditions, etc. That child is almost absolutely going to get exposed and bring it home to their parents. So do those parents keep their kid home from school? Will those kids get punished for not being present at school? Is there a way to have school open and also teach remotely do children whose parents are at high risk or who have another high risk family member in their household (a grandparent that lives with them)?

This is why the "Well, the high risk crowd should just hide at home" logic just isn't that simple. Or do we just tell folks in that situation "Good luck, you're in the minority here, hope you pull through this"?

That's why they need to go to summer covid camp and get it there.

Player To Be Named Later said:

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The_Fox said:

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JesusQuintana said:

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agsalaska said:

---

AggieJosh2002 said:

---

There is zero chance things will be the same in 6 weeks ... we won't be back to normal (i.e. kids may not be back to school until 2021), but I believe most businesses will be open (in the modified format that allows for some distancing).

---

Why would Elementary school kids not be back in school in August?

---

Have you visited ur kid at lunch or viewed first hand an elementary school lunch room? It's a disaster on about a million different levels. If one kid has it they will all have it then the parents will have it, etc. Not saying school should remain closed or not, but it's about the furthest thing from sanitary or social distancing as it gets. This would certainly prove theory on everybody is eventually gonna get it.

---

What is the virus fatality risk to elementary aged children and elementary aged children's parent? About the same as being struck by lightning?

---

I think we can all agree that elementary aged children are going to be just fine.

Here's the conundrum.... say a child has 2 parents that are high risk due to health conditions, etc. That child is almost absolutely going to get exposed and bring it home to their parents. So do those parents keep their kid home from school? Will those kids get punished for not being present at school? Is there a way to have school open and also teach remotely do children whose parents are at high risk or who have another high risk family member in their household (a grandparent that lives with them)?

This is why the "Well, the high risk crowd should just hide at home" logic just isn't that simple. Or do we just tell folks in that situation "Good luck, you're in the minority here, hope you pull through this"?

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They are free to make the decision to home school them.

To your second paragraph, I understand this really sucks for the high risk crowd. This thing sucks. Real bad. Pandemics suck. And the Chinese should be punished severly. But society has to move on.

I won't necessarily disagree. But it's going to be real enlightening probably. I don't think we've really started seeing what this thing can do to us yet. If things break out bad with people free to be idiots, we'll find out pretty quickly just what kind of stomach our society has for pain.

Player To Be Named Later said:

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The_Fox said:

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JesusQuintana said:

---

agsalaska said:

---

AggieJosh2002 said:

---

There is zero chance things will be the same in 6 weeks ... we won't be back to normal (i.e. kids may not be back to school until 2021), but I believe most businesses will be open (in the modified format that allows for some distancing).

---

Why would Elementary school kids not be back in school in August?

---

Have you visited ur kid at lunch or viewed first hand an elementary school lunch room? It's a disaster on about a million different levels. If one kid has it they will all have it then the parents will have it, etc. Not saying school should remain closed or not, but it's about the furthest thing from sanitary or social distancing as it gets. This would certainly prove theory on everybody is eventually gonna get it.

---

What is the virus fatality risk to elementary aged children and elementary aged children's parent? About the same as being struck by lightning?

---

I think we can all agree that elementary aged children are going to be just fine.

Here's the conundrum.... say a child has 2 parents that are high risk due to health conditions, etc. That child is almost absolutely going to get exposed and bring it home to their parents. So do those parents keep their kid home from school? Will those kids get punished for not being present at school? Is there a way to have school open and also teach remotely do children whose parents are at high risk or who have another high risk family member in their household (a grandparent that lives with them)?

This is why the "Well, the high risk crowd should just hide at home" logic just isn't that simple. Or do we just tell folks in that situation "Good luck, you're in the minority here, hope you pull through this"?

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School aged children are overwhelmingly going to have parents under 50. The number of high-risk parents will be only a few percent, at most. We cannot base school wide decisions on 2% of the population. That would be extremely short-sighted and idiotic. Most parents work and school has to be in session. (My wife stays home so it is irrelevant for my family, but we are the extreme minority in this country.)

The exceptions to the rule are going to have to take exceptional measures. Or put another way, the perfect cannot be the enemy of the good.

Player To Be Named Later said:

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I won't necessarily disagree. But it's going to be real enlightening probably. I don't think we've really started seeing what this thing can do to us yet. If things break out bad with people free to be idiots, we'll find out pretty quickly just what kind of stomach our society has for pain.

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Oh I agree. One of the things that I think is pretty ridiculous in this whole thing is the 'just the flu' argument. Remember last week there was a thread where most people thought it wouldnt kill 60k. Really?

I agree that 'we havent seen anything yet' is a real possibility. It would not surprise me if it killed millions before we got it under control. It also wouldnt surprise me if it mutated into something less dangerous and we figure out how to treat it, keeping the death toll in the low six figures.

Neither should have much impact, at least at a state or a ntional level, on how we go about our daily lives.

That's why if I was a business owner I'd be really hoping for a measured and cautious re-opening rather than full bore, balls to the wall, let's just be bad asses and carry on like normal.

My personal opinion is a strong 2nd wave would really put the screws to many businesses. Free market will shut them down harder than the govt will if that happens. And if we lose consumer confidence after opening things up all the way, it'll be really hard to pull most people with a modicum of intelligence back in.

And yeah, my prayer is that this thing doesn't follow what the Spanish Flu did. It wasn't "that bad" the first time compared to the 2nd wave. That 2nd wave was a real MFer.

Player To Be Named Later said:

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That's why if I was a business owner I'd be really hoping for a measured and cautious re-opening rather than full bore, balls to the wall, let's just be bad asses and carry on like normal.

My personal opinion is a strong 2nd wave would really put the screws to many businesses. Free market will shut them down harder than the govt will if that happens. And if we lose consumer confidence after opening things up all the way, it'll be really hard to pull most people with a modicum of intelligence back in.

And yeah, my prayer is that this thing doesn't follow what the Spanish Flu did. It wasn't "that bad" the first time compared to the 2nd wave. That 2nd wave was a real MFer.

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All of that is entirely possible. I just want the individual businesses and the market to be the ones deciding, not the government.

Can't really argue with that line of thought. I've voted Libertarian more often than not lately (I know, I know.... go figure).

I generally don't give 2 ****s these days what people do if it doesnt affect me. If I knew for a fact that people rushing out and being idiots wouldn't cause some problems to the rest of society then I'd REALLY be 100% down with wishing them well on their way out. Trust me, this really isn't an easy dilemma for me..... I'm NOT a fan of big government. I just want to ride out the rest of my career, move to my 10 acres or so, and wish the rest of the world good luck.

And yes, I know we can't save people from themselves. I just wish I had a little bit of faith left in people to do what's smart when we open up. But that faith got destroyed years ago.

Agreed.

Player To Be Named Later said:

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Can't really argue with that line of thought. I've voted Libertarian more often than not lately (I know, I know.... go figure).

I generally don't give 2 ****s these days what people do if it doesnt affect me. If I knew for a fact that people rushing out and being idiots wouldn't cause some problems to the rest of society then I'd REALLY be 100% down with wishing them well on their way out. Trust me, this really isn't an easy dilemma for me..... I'm NOT a fan of big government. I just want to ride out the rest of my career, move to my 10 acres or so, and wish the rest of the world good luck.

And yes, I know we can't save people from themselves. I just wish I had a little bit of faith left in people to do what's smart when we open up. But that faith got destroyed years ago.

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You and I both know they will not. I knew this as fact prior to finishing FTO phase. People are idiots. I also learned that when seconds count, the police will be there in minutes. You have to look out for yourself. The government will not be there when the chips are down.

That was a difficult lesson for 22-year-old me. I used to be an idealist. I can sill here Sgt. Garza laughing at me and saying, "Fox, you're not going to make a difference, this is just a good, secure job. Grow up!"

The_Fox said:

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You and I both know they will not. I knew this as fact prior to finishing FTO phase. People are idiots. I also learned that when seconds count, the police will be there in minutes. You have to look out for yourself. The government will not be there when the chips are down.

That was a difficult lesson for 22-year-old me. I used to be an idealist. I can sill here Sgt. Garza laughing at me and saying, "Fox, you're not going to make a difference, this is just a good, secure job. Grow up!"

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And that' what scares me. Our society is soft and not as smart as we used to be. I'm fairly confident we'd lose WWII if it started tomorrow.

And agreed..... I live out in the unincorporated county now, and I wouldn't even bother calling 911 until after I dealt with things myself.

And no, Mr. Defense Attorney, that's not an admission of pre-meditation

Player To Be Named Later said:

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The_Fox said:

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You and I both know they will not. I knew this as fact prior to finishing FTO phase. People are idiots. I also learned that when seconds count, the police will be there in minutes. You have to look out for yourself. The government will not be there when the chips are down.

That was a difficult lesson for 22-year-old me. I used to be an idealist. I can sill here Sgt. Garza laughing at me and saying, "Fox, you're not going to make a difference, this is just a good, secure job. Grow up!"

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And that' what scares me. Our society is soft and not as smart as we used to be. I'm fairly confident we'd lose WWII if it started tomorrow.

And agreed..... I live out in the unincorporated county now, and I wouldn't even bother calling 911 until after I dealt with things myself.

And no, Mr. Defense Attorney, that's not an admission of pre-meditation

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I'm also a contract attorney for TMPA and represent officers in their use of force and critical incidents. Cops are 20% of my clients.

BTW, no ill will on my part to most defense attorneys. "Most" of them are just doing a job that needs done. Of course, like anything else, roughly 5% gives the rest a crap name.

Most of the defense attorneys I ran across in my time in DWI unit were pretty decent folks. Only 1 or 2 of them were the real *****s. But in our county, those guys are the ones who usually pissed off the jury anyway.

Player To Be Named Later said:

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I won't necessarily disagree. But it's going to be real enlightening probably. I don't think we've really started seeing what this thing can do to us yet. If things break out bad with people free to be idiots, we'll find out pretty quickly just what kind of stomach our society has for pain.

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You seem to have a habit of looking down at people. It seems like it brings you joy to do so.

How does that work out for you in real life?

Just curious.

Aggie said:

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Doug Ross said:

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Young people are still dying....young people are still developing ARDS. That is what scares me the most. I understand the economic downfall, but we can't open things up yet.

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Then when?
6 moths ?
8 months?
A year when a vaccine is readily available?

The numbers alone do not support keeping everything shut down... and for people under 50 they for sure don't support the shut down

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Hold up what would really really help is if we would get accurate numbers of hospitalizations due to covid and accurate numbers of deaths due to covid.

Right now people who die unrelated to covid are being classified as covid deaths so states and counties and hospitals can get extra $$

Some states are adjusting numbers up and some are adjusting numbers down.

We have health officials saying to be liberal on classification of death.


We have an increase number of strokes being classified as covid deaths.

So can we really trust these outliers of twenty somethings deaths being classified as covid??? The answer is no. Last year young people died of all sorts of reasons, this year if there is a death officials blame it on covid.


If we could actually get accurate numbers, have the media actually report facts , the public wouldn't be so freaked out. We would have a return to normal.


In addition- if all government officials were also furloughed while their state is on lockdown, we would have a tidal wave of support to reopen

The thing is this seems to be pretty much how causes of deaths are categorized. Look up flu deaths and you'll see that it's "flu and flu related deaths".

I'd be interested to hear a medical professional opinion on that, but the way these are categorized doesn't seem to be out of the ordinary from what I understand. I don't know how much of what we're hearing is just deaths being categorized like they always are vs an actual attempt to fabricate results.

Carnwellag2 said:

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Aggie said:

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Doug Ross said:

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Young people are still dying....young people are still developing ARDS. That is what scares me the most. I understand the economic downfall, but we can't open things up yet.

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Then when?
6 moths ?
8 months?
A year when a vaccine is readily available?

The numbers alone do not support keeping everything shut down... and for people under 50 they for sure don't support the shut down

---

Hold up what would really really help is if we would get accurate numbers of hospitalizations due to covid and accurate numbers of deaths due to covid.

Right now people who die unrelated to covid are being classified as covid deaths so states and counties and hospitals can get extra $$

Some states are adjusting numbers up and some are adjusting numbers down.

We have health officials saying to be liberal on classification of death.


We have an increase number of strokes being classified as covid deaths.

So can we really trust these outliers of twenty somethings deaths being classified as covid??? The answer is no. Last year young people died of all sorts of reasons, this year if there is a death officials blame it on covid.


If we could actually get accurate numbers, have the media actually report facts , the public wouldn't be so freaked out. We would have a return to normal.


In addition- if all government officials were also furloughed while their state is on lockdown, we would have a tidal wave of support to reopen

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I think the number of deaths angle is way overplayed. I have read a lot of that too but it all seems like a stretch. I dont think the number of people being counted who shouldn't be is statistically significant.

In addition to the study in LA county stating that we have 50times as many cases as we thought or the study in NYC that 21% of the population has antibodies. Every study that has been done since antibody testing has become available is showing that far more people have had this virus than we thought by 25 to 50 times. Not just some studies,,,all of them.