Player To Be Named Later said:

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A lot of people are clinging the flawed study out of Stanford that suggests we have upwards of 50x as many cases than we know about.

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Ok even if that study is true...that puts us at 1.1 million out of 29 million currently infected or with antibodies. If the vaccine is 18 months away, that means we will start averaging 1.5 million cases a month or there will be some heavy spikes. That doesn't seem realistic and if it is, we have some very hard times ahead.

Fact is, both extreme sides are probably about to be really unhappy because neither is going to get their way. We will re-open things in a measured way, hopefully while keeping an eye on things and being willing to change course if necessary.

That's gonna piss off a lot of people on the opposite extremes, but the moderate majority in the State/Country knows that's very likely the best course.

iluvpoker said:

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I don't understand the moderators on this site. This site has so much potential to be better than it is.

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Ain't that the truth

agsalaska said:

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JesusQuintana said:

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CT75 said:

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agsalaska said:

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slacker00 said:

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It is a fair question of what happens next and/or what should we expect. The initial shutdowns were sold as "flattening the curve" but in reality we survived without reaching critical mass at most hospitals quite easily. Instead we have used the extra time to learn since no one really knew how bad it was going to be.

Unfortunately, to me it looks like our options are varying levels of full steam ahead or shelter in place. I don't think we have the stomach or the organization to do an extended shelter in place. That leaves us to proceed along a course of most everyone eventually getting infected, unless we make some medical breakthroughs to prevent that and/or reduce the outcome of infection.

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This was ALWAYS the path we were going to have to take.

The problem is that message was somehow lost for too many people. buried by the MSM who unfortunately influences the minds of many sheep.

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So the path forward is that everybody will get it eventually? By eventually I assume you mean in the next 12-18 months prior to a vaccine? We have 23k positive cases in Texas and 29 million people. I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around 20+ million in Texas getting infected over the next 12-18 months.

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You should get your head around it because that was always what was going to happen. Its unfortunate so many people were lead to believe something else.

Also, you know as well as the rest of us that there are far more than 23k cases in Texas. That number is not even close. And 12-18 months for a vaccine? Good luck on that.

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IF what you're saying is correct, then a lot of the free market is going to enact most of the same recent govt policies on their own. And instead of *****ing about the gov't, people are going to be trying to shame the people who aren't out spending their money.

Right now I'd be nervous as a business owner either way. If the open it all up crowd gets their way, we're probably looking at outbreaks that would screw my business either way. A business owner should really be hoping for a cautious re-opening. A full on, back to normal, likely won't be any more sustainable than a shut down.

Player To Be Named Later said:

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IF what you're saying is correct, then a lot of the free market is going to enact most of the same recent govt policies on their own. And instead of *****ing about the gov't, people are going to be trying to shame the people who aren't out spending their money.

Right now I'd be nervous as a business owner either way. If the open it all up crowd gets their way, we're probably looking at outbreaks that would screw my business either way. A business owner should really be hoping for a cautious re-opening. A full on, back to normal, likely won't be any more sustainable than a shut down.

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There are going to be outbreaks. And more outbreaks, and then some more outbreaks, and finally, some more outbreaks.

To your point, businesses are going to have to figure out how to make money during all of this, and I have little doubt that your first sentence is correct.

The businesses that will come out of this thing in the best position are the ones that adjust, just like in every other major event.

The businesses that will fail will be the stubborn ass businesses that refuse to change. Many people may scoff at businesses that require masks, etc.... but those will be the ones that more people will be likely to show up to.

Places like movie theaters are going to really have to get creative. Because they won't make enough money off the "screw this virus, I'm going to the movies anyway!" crowd to do that well.

Player To Be Named Later said:

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The businesses that will come out of this thing in the best position are the ones that adjust, just like in every other major event.

The businesses that will fail will be the stubborn ass businesses that refuse to change. Many people may scoff at businesses that require masks, etc.... but those will be the ones that more people will be likely to show up to.

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Not mine. I just need open. "Customers" will be required to show up, masks or nor masks.

So if everyone is going to get it, why aren't we being smart about how and when? This is like going to war. Take all volunteers and draft the young and healthy's to go to infection camps. Like summer camp for the kids. Get it and then get back out in the world. Aside from the ethics doesn't this get us on our feet faster and in a more controlled manner?

Everybody clamoring for the open it up 100% and everyone at all the rallies should volunteer to go to those camps. Practice what they preach ya know

slacker00 said:

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So if everyone is going to get it, why aren't we being smart about how and when? This is like going to war. Take all volunteers and draft the young and healthy's to go to infection camps. Like summer camp for the kids. Get it and then get back out in the world. Aside from the ethics doesn't this get us on our feet faster and in a more controlled manner?

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You mean like a Chicken Pox party?

Thats how I got the Chicken Pox. There were six of us kids in a hotel room in San Antonio. Probably 1985.


In fact, this disease is more like the chicken pox than the flu. Harmless to kids but very dangerous for some adults. You get it and then are, for the most part, immune to it.

The_Fox said:

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Player To Be Named Later said:

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Everybody clamoring for the open it up 100% and everyone at all the rallies should volunteer to go to those camps. Practice what they preach ya know

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I would go tomorrow. There is zero doubt I will ultimately get this if I have not already.

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Yep. There's nothing to fear for the vast majority of the population.

agsalaska said:

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You mean like a Chicken Pox party?

Thats how I got the Chicken Pox. There were six of us kids in a hotel room in San Antonio. Probably 1985.


In fact, this disease is more like the chicken pox than the flu. Harmless to kids but very dangerous for some adults. You get it and then are, for the most part, immune to it.

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Sort of except you don't go home to ride out the illness, instead you stay at a quarantine center and are observed by doctors. No more wondering if or how you got it. You know and the doctors know.

The_Fox said:

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Player To Be Named Later said:

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Everybody clamoring for the open it up 100% and everyone at all the rallies should volunteer to go to those camps. Practice what they preach ya know

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I would go tomorrow. There is zero doubt I will ultimately get this if I have not already.

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Maybe practice some basic hygiene then.

SirLurksALot said:

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The_Fox said:

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Player To Be Named Later said:

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Everybody clamoring for the open it up 100% and everyone at all the rallies should volunteer to go to those camps. Practice what they preach ya know

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I would go tomorrow. There is zero doubt I will ultimately get this if I have not already.

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Yep. There's nothing to fear for the vast majority of the population.

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I don't disagree with you but what is the vast majority? In my household alone, I have myself with afib, 14 year old daughter with chronic lung disease from prematurity, a 74 year old mother n law with asthma and another daughter and wife with no existing conditions. In my extended family many of the households have at least one person that would be considered higher risk (severe asthma, age + obesity, smoker, etc). I assume many here and everywhere in this country know plenty of friends and family that are in the same situation. This has nothing to do with when to open or living in fear, etc. and more to do with interest on how the next year with play out. Flattening the curve was a pointless exercise if we are expecting 20+ million Texans to get infected in the next 1-2 years.

JesusQuintana said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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The_Fox said:

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Player To Be Named Later said:

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Everybody clamoring for the open it up 100% and everyone at all the rallies should volunteer to go to those camps. Practice what they preach ya know

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I would go tomorrow. There is zero doubt I will ultimately get this if I have not already.

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Yep. There's nothing to fear for the vast majority of the population.

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I don't disagree with you but what is the vast majority? In my household alone, I have myself with afib, 14 year old daughter with chronic lung disease from prematurity, a 74 year old mother n law with asthma and another daughter and wife with no existing conditions. In my extended family many of the households have at least one person that would be considered higher risk (severe asthma, age + obesity, smoker, etc). I assume many here and everywhere in this country know plenty of friends and family that are in the same situation. This has nothing to do with when to open or living in fear, etc. and more to do with interest on how the next year with play out. Flattening the curve was a pointless exercise if we are expecting 20+ million Texans to get infected in the next 1-2 years.

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Flattening the curve was about preventing hospitals from over crowding and buying time. Not stoping the spread of the disease.

In the worst case scenario 2 million deaths were modeled. That is 0.6% of the country. For arguments sake let's assume another 2 million have serious lasting effects from the virus. That mean 98.8% of people will have minor or no impacts.

As for people you know well, let's assume that each of those 4 million each have 10 different people that have intimate relationship with them. That would mean that Approximately 88% of people won't even have a relationship with someone negatively affected. This is all assuming the worst case scenario. The reality is that most will be fine, even those with pre-existing conditions.

iluvpoker said:

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This thread is pointless. There is ZERO chance that things will be the same in 6-8 weeks as they are today. Hypothetical questions are fine if there is a reasonable chance of occurrence.

Example - you ask hypothetically what if we get stuck in phase 2 because the curve starts going back up. Now that's a discussion because it's possible.

But asking what if nothing changes for the next 6-8 weeks is a total waste because it's not possible. Things are going to change in the next 6-8 weeks. We all know things are going to change in the NEXT 6-8 DAYS in parts of this country.

I don't understand the moderators on this site. This site has so much potential to be better than it is.

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Well you're a rich poker playing, business owning, check cutting super genius. Open up a competing site with your superior intellect.

JesusQuintana said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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The_Fox said:

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Player To Be Named Later said:

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Everybody clamoring for the open it up 100% and everyone at all the rallies should volunteer to go to those camps. Practice what they preach ya know

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I would go tomorrow. There is zero doubt I will ultimately get this if I have not already.

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Yep. There's nothing to fear for the vast majority of the population.

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I don't disagree with you but what is the vast majority? In my household alone, I have myself with afib, 14 year old daughter with chronic lung disease from prematurity, a 74 year old mother n law with asthma and another daughter and wife with no existing conditions. In my extended family many of the households have at least one person that would be considered higher risk (severe asthma, age + obesity, smoker, etc). I assume many here and everywhere in this country know plenty of friends and family that are in the same situation. This has nothing to do with when to open or living in fear, etc. and more to do with interest on how the next year with play out. Flattening the curve was a pointless exercise if we are expecting 20+ million Texans to get infected in the next 1-2 years.

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Yes. This virus totally sucks. Everything about it sucks. And it especially sucks for our friends and neighbors and fellow Americans in compromised health situations.

I dont agree that flattening the curve was a pointless exercise. It bought us a lot of time to understand how to treat it and to prepare for it. Fortunately the only place that got out of hand was NYC. We are MUCH more prepared today than we were.

But it was never to prevent(though flattening the curve would prevent some). It was always to spread out infections. But the virus itself is what it is. It is going to behave like other viruses. They come. They go. They come. They go. We cannot government our way out of this.

It's been pretty clear, to me at least, since the beginning. We either develop a vaccine or herd immunity. That's how it is going to slow down. And of course we get better at treating it.

Nobody is really considering the possibility that there might not ever be an effective vaccine. I think the more important focus should be on therapeutics and treatment protocols

agsalaska said:

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JesusQuintana said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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The_Fox said:

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Player To Be Named Later said:

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Everybody clamoring for the open it up 100% and everyone at all the rallies should volunteer to go to those camps. Practice what they preach ya know

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I would go tomorrow. There is zero doubt I will ultimately get this if I have not already.

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Yep. There's nothing to fear for the vast majority of the population.

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I don't disagree with you but what is the vast majority? In my household alone, I have myself with afib, 14 year old daughter with chronic lung disease from prematurity, a 74 year old mother n law with asthma and another daughter and wife with no existing conditions. In my extended family many of the households have at least one person that would be considered higher risk (severe asthma, age + obesity, smoker, etc). I assume many here and everywhere in this country know plenty of friends and family that are in the same situation. This has nothing to do with when to open or living in fear, etc. and more to do with interest on how the next year with play out. Flattening the curve was a pointless exercise if we are expecting 20+ million Texans to get infected in the next 1-2 years.

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Yes. This virus totally sucks. Everything about it sucks. And it especially sucks for our friends and neighbors and fellow Americans in compromised health situations.

I dont agree that flattening the curve was a pointless exercise. It bought us a lot of time to understand how to treat it and to prepare for it. Fortunately the only place that got out of hand was NYC. We are MUCH more prepared today than we were.

But it was never to prevent(though flattening the curve would prevent some). It was always to spread out infections. But the virus itself is what it is. It is going to behave like other viruses. They come. They go. They come. They go. We cannot government our way out of this.

It's been pretty clear, to me at least, since the beginning. We either develop a vaccine or herd immunity. That's how it is going to slow down. And of course we get better at treating it.

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Yes, pointless was the wrong word. I meant to say that if millions upon millions of people get infected under the premise or "everybody will eventually get infected", then the curve really won't be flat and will continue on an upward trajectory especially if we get back to life as it it was before or as close as possible to that. For Texas, that would mean the worst is yet to come (but In the grand scheme of things it's not that bad for many). It will suck for healthcare workers though(:

JesusQuintana said:

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agsalaska said:

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JesusQuintana said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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The_Fox said:

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Player To Be Named Later said:

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Everybody clamoring for the open it up 100% and everyone at all the rallies should volunteer to go to those camps. Practice what they preach ya know

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I would go tomorrow. There is zero doubt I will ultimately get this if I have not already.

---

Yep. There's nothing to fear for the vast majority of the population.

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I don't disagree with you but what is the vast majority? In my household alone, I have myself with afib, 14 year old daughter with chronic lung disease from prematurity, a 74 year old mother n law with asthma and another daughter and wife with no existing conditions. In my extended family many of the households have at least one person that would be considered higher risk (severe asthma, age + obesity, smoker, etc). I assume many here and everywhere in this country know plenty of friends and family that are in the same situation. This has nothing to do with when to open or living in fear, etc. and more to do with interest on how the next year with play out. Flattening the curve was a pointless exercise if we are expecting 20+ million Texans to get infected in the next 1-2 years.

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Yes. This virus totally sucks. Everything about it sucks. And it especially sucks for our friends and neighbors and fellow Americans in compromised health situations.

I dont agree that flattening the curve was a pointless exercise. It bought us a lot of time to understand how to treat it and to prepare for it. Fortunately the only place that got out of hand was NYC. We are MUCH more prepared today than we were.

But it was never to prevent(though flattening the curve would prevent some). It was always to spread out infections. But the virus itself is what it is. It is going to behave like other viruses. They come. They go. They come. They go. We cannot government our way out of this.

It's been pretty clear, to me at least, since the beginning. We either develop a vaccine or herd immunity. That's how it is going to slow down. And of course we get better at treating it.

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Yes, pointless was the wrong word. I meant to say that if millions upon millions of people get infected under the premise or "everybody will eventually get infected", then the curve really won't be flat and will continue on an upward trajectory especially if we get back to life as it it was before or as close as possible to that. For Texas, that would mean the worst is yet to come (but In the grand scheme of things it's not that bad for many). It will suck for healthcare workers though(:

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Fair. I get what you are saying.

The worst is yet to come for infections, but maybe not deaths or disabilities. Depends on how effective we get at treating it and how we react if we get in a 'hospitals are overwhelmed' scenario. Or it could mutate into something not as dangerous.

But I have little doubt that we are only at the beginning of infections.

TxAG#2011 said:

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The_Fox said:

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Player To Be Named Later said:

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Everybody clamoring for the open it up 100% and everyone at all the rallies should volunteer to go to those camps. Practice what they preach ya know

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I would go tomorrow. There is zero doubt I will ultimately get this if I have not already.

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Maybe practice some basic hygiene then.

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My family has not left the house in 6 weeks and I use antibacterial wipes every time I touch anything and almost never touch my face.

However, I am a criminal defense attorney. I am in small rooms with dozens of prisoners for extended period of time several times a week when the court is open. Also, your client is constantly whispering to you when you are having a hearing. You can definitely smell their breathe. We exchange paperwork with prisoners constantly.

When we reopen, I will get it. Period. Might as well get this over with.

I'm glad I get to deal with those same people only for a short car ride for the most part, or out in fresh air.

Player To Be Named Later said:

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I'm glad I get to deal with those same people only for a short car ride for the most part, or out in fresh air.

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You're a cop? I would never have guessed. I spent over a decade in la w enforcement myself.

I generally don't go out of my way to mention it..... you know the drill.

But yeah, 18yrs.... all of it on the streets in patrol, minus 1 year on DWI unit.

Player To Be Named Later said:

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I generally don't go out of my way to mention it..... you know the drill.

But yeah, 18yrs.... all of it on the streets in patrol, minus 1 year on DWI unit.

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Be safe!

Thanks...... I'm officially in "counting the days" mode now. The big decision is 20 or 25......

There is zero chance things will be the same in 6 weeks ... we won't be back to normal (i.e. kids may not be back to school until 2021), but I believe most businesses will be open (in the modified format that allows for some distancing).

I just want the sad music commercials to go away.

agsalaska said:

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AggieJosh2002 said:

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There is zero chance things will be the same in 6 weeks ... we won't be back to normal (i.e. kids may not be back to school until 2021), but I believe most businesses will be open (in the modified format that allows for some distancing).

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Why would Elementary school kids not be back in school in August?

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Have you visited ur kid at lunch or viewed first hand an elementary school lunch room? It's a disaster on about a million different levels. If one kid has it they will all have it then the parents will have it, etc. Not saying school should remain closed or not, but it's about the furthest thing from sanitary or social distancing as it gets. This would certainly prove theory on everybody is eventually gonna get it.

JesusQuintana said:

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agsalaska said:

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AggieJosh2002 said:

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There is zero chance things will be the same in 6 weeks ... we won't be back to normal (i.e. kids may not be back to school until 2021), but I believe most businesses will be open (in the modified format that allows for some distancing).

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Why would Elementary school kids not be back in school in August?

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Have you visited ur kid at lunch or viewed first hand an elementary school lunch room? It's a disaster on about a million different levels. If one kid has it they will all have it then the parents will have it, etc. Not saying school should remain closed or not, but it's about the furthest thing from sanitary or social distancing as it gets. This would certainly prove theory on everybody is eventually gonna get it.

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What is the virus fatality risk to elementary aged children and elementary aged children's parent? About the same as being struck by lightning?