So it is like the flu after all

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AggiePops
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10:05a, 4/26/20
You can use statistics to prove, or disprove, almost anything. He said about 0.1% of all New Yorkers were dying. Not 0.1% of those infected, but of everyone, including those who don't and never will have COVID. That number presumes that is the total number of deaths that will occur from the number of folks currently listed as having the disease. In other words, 100% recovery of all those currently alive who have it. Except he also said there appeared to be a 92% recovery rate.

Compared to the flu: he noted 20 to 60 thousand deaths each year from the flu. That's for a full year period. We're currently at about 54000 deaths from COVID in approximately three months. This is obviously far worse than the flu. Over all. It also is no big deal... for some.

To be sure, he does raise some good points and the initial overreaction, as he said himself, was reasonable based on the initial uncertainty. Now it's time to take a deep breath and use the info gathered to protect the Most vulnerable while loosening the restrictions as makes sense as the majority of Americans will either not catch it at all or will have few or no symptoms, even if they do have it. The danger is those who appear to be disease free but aren't passing it on to people who will have a far more adverse reaction.
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Gizzards
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10:56a, 4/26/20
AG
I haven't bothered to get a bright red cross next to my name on here, but I am a physician and feel we need to get society moving again in an intelligent manner. I think we went into isolation out of fear and lack of enough data to make measured decisions. We are now getting that data, so I don't fault the initial response. Now is the time to learn from that and make smart choices going forward. All that being said, this video is embarrassing for the physician trying to make his point. The business of extrapolating the percentage of positive test results on the entire population is as stupid as one can get. He of all physicians being in ER medicine should know that the vast majority of reported tests thus far have been on symptomatic patients. Even some symptomatic patients could not get tested. With unrestricted testing of anyone, the percentage positive will plummet, so the 39% positive rate in NY will drop like a rock. It is rather insulting to listen to him try to push this BS "science" on those in the room and those watching this video. Moreover, he continues to tout that he is only "following the science". He makes horrible arguments to advance the position he actually advocates. Sad thing is, he does not need to be this stupid. I want the same thing he does, which is to begin easing restrictions, but his manipulation of the statistics with his asinine "extrapolations" makes him lose all credibility. Listen to the reporters in the room, and you can see they doubt him (likely for different reasons). When people bring this type of BS on here, it is exactly why I and other physicians get frustrated. Moderators of TexAgs need to get a handle on this or shut the forum down. This is no different than a Facebook group at this time.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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In reply to Gizzards • 11:21a, 4/26/20
AG
Gizzards said:
I haven't bothered to get a bright red cross next to my name on here, but I am a physician and feel we need to get society moving again in an intelligent manner. I think we went into isolation out of fear and lack of enough data to make measured decisions. We are now getting that data, so I don't fault the initial response. Now is the time to learn from that and make smart choices going forward. All that being said, this video is embarrassing for the physician trying to make his point. The business of extrapolating the percentage of positive test results on the entire population is as stupid as one can get. He of all physicians being in ER medicine should know that the vast majority of reported tests thus far have been on symptomatic patients. Even some symptomatic patients could not get tested. With unrestricted testing of anyone, the percentage positive will plummet, so the 39% positive rate in NY will drop like a rock. It is rather insulting to listen to him try to push this BS "science" on those in the room and those watching this video. Moreover, he continues to tout that he is only "following the science". He makes horrible arguments to advance the position he actually advocates. Sad thing is, he does not need to be this stupid. I want the same thing he does, which is to begin easing restrictions, but his manipulation of the statistics with his asinine "extrapolations" makes him lose all credibility. Listen to the reporters in the room, and you can see they doubt him (likely for different reasons). When people bring this type of BS on here, it is exactly why I and other physicians get frustrated. Moderators of TexAgs need to get a handle on this or shut the forum down. This is no different than a Facebook group at this time.
Totally agree. I think he was using extrapolations to show things for two reasons. One he hoped it lets people who believe it is the flu it gives them confirmation bias. Two he thinks the general population is stupid and will fall for what he says. I think he knows you can't extrapolate positive tests to those that have been tested to the entire population. With that said, I think we have learned enough that we can start to open up smartly and not see some huge uptick in cases, but people should respect this virus because it is worse than the flu, and that is fairly obvious.
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murphyag
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11:45a, 4/26/20
AG
Since when do you guys listen to California liberals?

All kidding aside, I would have to question the impartiality of these doctors. They are business owners first. And all of the strip mall and street corner "Doc in a box" places are really hurting financially. Soccer moms are no longer bringing little Timmy in at the first sign of sniffles or a sore toe.
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02skiag
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12:31p, 4/26/20
AG
I agree that number wise, it's just like a flu, but with no vaccine. All those nursing homes residents and employees, I assume at least, are required to get flu vaccines every year. That's a very significant number of Covid infections and deaths right there.
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to hoosierAG • 12:44p, 4/26/20
hoosierAG said:
They just posted this thread over in forum 16 mocking how this board thinks they are meanies. Prepare for another onslaught of Meemaw and Coronabros crap now. Used to come to Texags for all my info, but it's now just as ruined as the rest of this political world ...only extremes exist and everyone must be squashed.

"A forum for scientific research and updates from actual health care workers with no political arguments or critiquing of people's level of concern?

Nah. I'm not a fan of that. Let's drown those voices out and make it another echo chamber for our side!"
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SirLurksALot
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 12:49p, 4/26/20
Nvm
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Dad
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In reply to 02skiag • 1:04p, 4/26/20
AG
02skiag said:
I agree that number wise, it's just like a flu, but with no vaccine. All those nursing homes residents and employees, I assume at least, are required to get flu vaccines every year. That's a very significant number of Covid infections and deaths right there.

I see it two ways... at the end of it all it will probably be between a 0.2% and 0.4% IFR which is very close to the 0.1% of the flu, but even 0.2% means it kills twice as many if the same number were infected... so maybe it's not that close. It is a lot closer to the 30 to 40 times more deadly than the flu that we were hearing in March but still not on the same level.
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PneumAg
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In reply to Fitch • 1:04p, 4/26/20
Fitch said:
The comment section reads like Forum 16.


So the comments all ended up being correct?
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to hoosierAG • 1:04p, 4/26/20
There's literally a poster in this very thread that is over there posting about how there's only 4 types of people you find on this forum.

But he's not one of them mind you... He's the only voice of reason!

Such a lack of self-awareness.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 1:07p, 4/26/20
Let it go. Even if you don't have/use the ignore function there are a lot of posters that just aren't worth the time to read.
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SirLurksALot
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 1:11p, 4/26/20
Proposition Joe said:
There's literally a poster in this very thread that is over there posting about how there's only 4 types of people you find on this forum.

But he's not one of them mind you... He's the only voice of reason!

Such a lack of self-awareness.


Lol are you trying to tattletale on another poster?

Grow up and don't take what anonymous people say on the internet so seriously.
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fig96
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In reply to SirLurksALot • 1:19p, 4/26/20
AG
SirLurksALot said:
Marcus Aurelius said:
It is not the flu. But dammit I am sick of it. Hence I have not been posting as much. The politics board has many sickening posters. I can't believe mods allow what some are posting there. Vilifying health care workers. As if we are seeking attention. Far from it for me.


While forum 16 is certainly a cesspool with it's fair share of conspiracy nuts and idiots, many of the comments posted in that thread are a natural backlash against the attention *horing that's been happening.

My job caries with it a higher probability of being shot at, in fact it's happened twice, yet I don't get on social media and post things like "I can't quarantine, I'm a nurse". I also don't go around suggesting that I'm risking my life just by showing up. Yes, healthcare workers carry a higher risks of contracting the virus. However, it's a virus that will likely kill less than 1% of those infected with the deaths skewed to the old and ill. If they're under 50 and healthy (as I'm sure the majority of healthcare workers are) then they probably have a higher risk of dying in a car crash on the way to work then dying of coronavirus.

That thread is also a blacklash against the sentiment that if you go out, or don't social distance then you hate healthcare workers and want to put them at risk. People are tired of not being able to live their lives and get angry when the risk to healthcare workers is overstated in order to shame them into submission.

Healthcare workers like any other profession shouldn't be vilified, but criticism in response to the attention seeking that SOME of them are doing is certainly appropriate.
Vilifying health care workers is wrong, but here's why there's lots of justification for it.

I just can't with some of y'all.
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HarleySpoon
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1:22p, 4/26/20
AG
Whether they are pro or con or open up or close up, or panicked or laid back.......a few doctors' opinions on any public forum should be relied on by readers as much as folks claiming to be experts on the real estate, outdoors, business and other forums.

Let the stuff be considered a potential data point in your own personal research and conclusions....then make your own personal decision and plan of action with what you know and update that often. I have a close personal friend that is an ER doctor in New Orleans. I don't post what he is telling me.....if I did, why should anyone establish their opinion based on his magnified experience? Why should they trust me? It's a public forum.

As for F16......if it bothers you, don't go there. The Old Rivalries forum bothers me, I don't think I've clicked on that thing in over four or five years. But, the Old Rivalries folks do their thing as they should. Let those folks do their thing and you do yours.
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fig96
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In reply to SirLurksALot • 1:39p, 4/26/20
AG
SirLurksALot said:
fig96 said:
SirLurksALot said:
Marcus Aurelius said:
It is not the flu. But dammit I am sick of it. Hence I have not been posting as much. The politics board has many sickening posters. I can't believe mods allow what some are posting there. Vilifying health care workers. As if we are seeking attention. Far from it for me.


While forum 16 is certainly a cesspool with it's fair share of conspiracy nuts and idiots, many of the comments posted in that thread are a natural backlash against the attention *horing that's been happening.

My job caries with it a higher probability of being shot at, in fact it's happened twice, yet I don't get on social media and post things like "I can't quarantine, I'm a nurse". I also don't go around suggesting that I'm risking my life just by showing up. Yes, healthcare workers carry a higher risks of contracting the virus. However, it's a virus that will likely kill less than 1% of those infected with the deaths skewed to the old and ill. If they're under 50 and healthy (as I'm sure the majority of healthcare workers are) then they probably have a higher risk of dying in a car crash on the way to work then dying of coronavirus.

That thread is also a blacklash against the sentiment that if you go out, or don't social distance then you hate healthcare workers and want to put them at risk. People are tired of not being able to live their lives and get angry when the risk to healthcare workers is overstated in order to shame them into submission.

Healthcare workers like any other profession shouldn't be vilified, but criticism in response to the attention seeking that SOME of them are doing is certainly appropriate.
Vilifying health care workers is wrong, but here's why there's lots of justification for it.

I just can't with some of y'all.

Criticism doesn't equal vilifying.
It doesn't. But when someone who's currently on the front lines says "It's wrong to vilify health care workers" it might be a better course of action to show a bit of compassion and/or just shut up instead of explaining to them why they're getting "criticized".
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johnnyblaze36
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 2:08p, 4/26/20
AG
Player To Be Named Later said:
johnnyblaze36 said:
Player To Be Named Later said:
Fitch said:
The comment section reads like Forum 16.


Kinda like what this forum has been turned into?

I can't be the only one who has noticed many of the physicians aren't chiming in much with their insight anymore. Sad, that was the best part of this board.
Or maybe there's another reason why they aren't chiming in so much and it's because of videos like the one in the OP, the studies coming out of Stanford and Miami, etc.

I'd probably logoff too if I was so far off about something.
So basically calling the physicians on here liars and saying they've only posted their insight into the disease process and how they are treating it as liars.

Like I said, this forum has become toxic and disgusting.
Nowhere did I call anybody a liar, bud. I simply stated that if I was so wrong about something I'd probably stop commenting on the topic. Nothing I said was toxic, however you do need to work on your reading comprehension skills.
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Redstone
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2:14p, 4/26/20
AG
There was a F16 thread about this thread but it got deleted.

There seems to be a lot of heat between the boards, which I'm really sorry to see as a poster to both.

Once the pandemic is over, I do hope we can come together despite differences - in a spirit of respectful, civil, and informed conversation. Conversations anchored by the science.
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Redstone
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2:17p, 4/26/20
AG
We should not call one another Coronabros, nor Karens.

We are the Aggies
The Aggies are we
We are from Texas AMC
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02skiag
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In reply to Dr.HeadCase • 2:43p, 4/26/20
AG
Dr.HeadCase said:
Player To Be Named Later said:
Marcus Aurelius said:
It is not the flu. But dammit I am sick of it. Hence I have not been posting as much. The politics board has many sickening posters. I can't believe mods allow what some are posting there. Vilifying health care workers. As if we are seeking attention. Far from it for me.
Sorry it's turned out that way in this forum. But I would hope that the majority of folks do not feel like that. Many of us really enjoyed your insight into the disease.

The way this forum has played out and lack of moderation will likely lead to me giving up my paid sub to this site. If this is how staff wants to see things, I'm done.


I've been very perplexed how they've moderated these discussions. For example, they locked a thread the other day about Trumps disinfectant comments but let threads about Bill Gates inventing the virus in a Chinese lab so that he can control people with vaccines go on unchecked. I will not be returning to this site much in the future, which is a shame because I used to enjoy it during football season. It has embarrassed me as a representation of A&M.


That's a bit over the top. We have such a large base of former students that you're going to have opinions covering every end of the spectrum. Go read the comment section from a Facebook article or a news site. This site is as about as good as it gets for online discussion.
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agdoc2001
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 2:47p, 4/26/20
AG
Player To Be Named Later said:
So basically calling the physicians on here liars and saying they've only posted their insight into the disease process and how they are treating it as liars.


In medicine we recognize that case studies are the lowest form of evidence we have available. To reply to another physician or even a patient with "Well, that isn't consistent with my own experiences" or "that's an interesting anecdote, but according to this study" is not calling that person a liar - it is simply mentioning the obvious, that their personal experiences are not the whole truth. A man of science should always be willing to accept new and better data.

If we are at the point where we fall into hysterics and cite personal attacks anytime we are questioned, then science is dead and we'll be better off if the virus wipes us out and gives an actual, rational species a shot at it.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Player To Be Named Later
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In reply to 02skiag • 2:48p, 4/26/20
AG
02skiag said:
Dr.HeadCase said:
Player To Be Named Later said:
Marcus Aurelius said:
It is not the flu. But dammit I am sick of it. Hence I have not been posting as much. The politics board has many sickening posters. I can't believe mods allow what some are posting there. Vilifying health care workers. As if we are seeking attention. Far from it for me.
Sorry it's turned out that way in this forum. But I would hope that the majority of folks do not feel like that. Many of us really enjoyed your insight into the disease.

The way this forum has played out and lack of moderation will likely lead to me giving up my paid sub to this site. If this is how staff wants to see things, I'm done.


I've been very perplexed how they've moderated these discussions. For example, they locked a thread the other day about Trumps disinfectant comments but let threads about Bill Gates inventing the virus in a Chinese lab so that he can control people with vaccines go on unchecked. I will not be returning to this site much in the future, which is a shame because I used to enjoy it during football season. It has embarrassed me as a representation of A&M.


That's a bit over the top. We have such a large base of former students that you're going to have opinions covering every end of the spectrum. Go read the comment section from a Facebook article or a news site. This site is as about as good as it gets for online discussion.

I think his point is more that the stickied thread at the top, written by Brandon himself, specifically mentions that a majority of the posts and behavior we're seeing an uptick on here will not be tolerated on this forum.

Yet here they all are and the forum is going to hell to the point the physicians fighting this thing don't really care to post their insights anymore....leaving this forum to just devolve into a shouting match between the 2 extremes. Those espousing the 2 extremes may enjoy that.... but the rest of folks do not.
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02skiag
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 3:01p, 4/26/20
AG
I stand by my post, over the top.
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hoosierAG
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3:03p, 4/26/20
AG
Yep, I'm about done too. Several of my posts questioning some of the forum 16 stuff have disappeared, on this thread and another, while so much others stuff remains. Unreal. The belittling of each other is ridiculous....and that's not just over the corona stuff...M&W board went off the cliff a while back too.

Got rid of all social media and it has made my life so much better, may be time for the same here. Just the way the world has gone.

And I'm not saying I'm right at all, just best to move on sometimes from a personal stand point.
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Player To Be Named Later
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In reply to hoosierAG • 3:07p, 4/26/20
AG
I haven't watched ANY form of news in close to a month and it made life so much better. This forum WAS a great place to get information from physicians who had great real world insight about the virus, minus the politics and fighting. That has changed and now it is predominantly a mud slinging fest and not an enjoyable place to be.

Agreed about M&W...... TexAgs is just mirroring society however.
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Capitol Ag
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In reply to AggiePops • 3:21p, 4/26/20
AG
AggiePops said:
To be sure, he does raise some good points and the initial overreaction, as he said himself, was reasonable based on the initial uncertainty. Now it's time to take a deep breath and use the info gathered to protect the Most vulnerable while loosening the restrictions as makes sense as the majority of Americans will either not catch it at all or will have few or no symptoms, even if they do have it. The danger is those who appear to be disease free but aren't passing it on to people who will have a far more adverse reaction.


Agree. And I did find it interesting the doctors bring up the quarantine of healthy people and how it unprecedented on this scale historically. I e always wondered why we did t just go all in on quarantining the most vulnerable and those already sick and leave the rest of us to do our thing.

On the flu comparison that seems to be such a trigger point to many, I think they make the point in that the current novel Corona virus isn't literally "the flu" but that the results are similar in terms of a lot infected and a very very few dying comparatively. Obviously a lot more than any of us want, but it is true that some years the flu itself gets very out of control. In terms of how to compare Covid-19 to other viruses, I guess it's like comparing a crocodile to a dinosaur. Both are reptiles and actually archosaurs, so they are close. A better comparison scientifically though would be birds to dinosaurs as birds are dinosaurs per current scientific agreement. So, with this (probably poor comparison) the virus isn't the influenza virus, but is a virus. A virus that results in very similar stats. A lot of infected, very small % of deaths. Worth staying shut down over? That's of course the debate currently.

For those wanting wanting to quit Texags over Forum 16, I just don't go there. It's terrible I agree. But I am more about Premium, Baseball, entertainment and the job board. Sometimes i visit other forums too. But Forum 16 is what it is. The rules are different there and are understood. Don't throw the baby out with the bath water. And I don't mind debate here. I want some b/c I WONT go to F-16 to debate opening or not. Here at least I can converse with real Docs and medical professionals about things. It's been very helpful plus I'd rather hear a dissenting opinion here from an actual doctor )like why we should open up, should etc.) or what holes this video may have vs a bunch of people just all on the same side. So don't leave. Your input is valued by me at least. I don't care if we disagree, as I honestly feel this issue isn't that simple and I want to understand things more in-depth than I currently do.
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Dr.HeadCase
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In reply to hoosierAG • 3:40p, 4/26/20
AG
Yep, my post was just deleted for unknown reasons yet others remain. I don't get it. At this point I'd argue the forum is doing more harm than good.
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agjacent
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In reply to Dr.HeadCase • 4:09p, 4/26/20
Same here. Mods shouldn't be anonymous.
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Aggie-Clausewitz
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In reply to Marcus Aurelius • 4:32p, 4/26/20
AG
Unfortunately, the mods allow quite a bit to go on in the Politics forum: anti-Semitism, absurd conspiracy theories, horrific comments about people with different political views, talk of overthrowing the government, etc. I'd advise you to stay far from that forum. Marcus Aurelius' stoic principles would also caution you against getting too worked up over the rhetoric from fools.
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HarleySpoon
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In reply to Aggie-Clausewitz • 4:57p, 4/26/20
AG
Aggie-Clausewitz said:
Unfortunately, the mods allow quite a bit to go on in the Politics forum: anti-Semitism, absurd conspiracy theories, horrific comments about people with different political views, talk of overthrowing the government, etc. I'd advise you to stay far from that forum. Marcus Aurelius' stoic principles would also caution you against getting too worked up over the rhetoric from fools.
Spot on......definitely don't go there if you are uncomfortable having your beliefs challenged.....that place is almost as bad as most universities used to be.
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Player To Be Named Later
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In reply to HarleySpoon • 5:10p, 4/26/20
AG
I think most can agree there's a difference between "challenging beliefs" and being straight up trashy to people. What if I told you that it's possible to exchange differing beliefs with other people without name calling and belittling?
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ElephantRider
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5:22p, 4/26/20
AG
This is the world we live in...the extremes on each end yell at each other sling mud, leaving the rest of us in the middle with nowhere to go.
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Player To Be Named Later
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5:29p, 4/26/20
AG
There have been several folks on here that I have been able to have differences of opinion with without either of us being disrespectful to each other. I would hope more college graduates from my University would be able to do that as well. I'd also hope they'd know to read the forum rules stickied at the top and follow them. But I digress...
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HarleySpoon
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 5:55p, 4/26/20
AG
Player To Be Named Later said:
I think most can agree there's a difference between "challenging beliefs" and being straight up trashy to people. What if I told you that it's possible to exchange differing beliefs with other people without name calling and belittling?
Help me out....seriously. If someone says something that you believe is clearly racist, is it okay to point out it is a racist comment? What about anti-Semitic? If they express these views on a political forum, would you consider okay to explain to them that their comments are racist and that if they truly believe what they say, that they are in your opinion a racist? Again, in a forum dedicated to politics. Is there a way to tell someone you think they are racist and not likely offend them? If someone politely told you that you are racist, would you likely be offended?
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Player To Be Named Later
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In reply to HarleySpoon • 5:59p, 4/26/20
AG
Of course I would. But I could probably pull it off without throwing f-bombs and such at them. I'd point out their racist tendencies and be done with them..... but that's me.
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Marcus Aurelius
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6:06p, 4/26/20
AG
What I dislike is the absolute dichotomy of opinions on here of the danger of this virus. On one side - the "Karens" as so affectionately termed on forum 16. Socially distanced quarantined to the max. Never go in public. Mask. Gloves. Fear. On the other side. It's a cold. No worse than the common flu. The economy is wrecked. Fauci is a fool. Health care workers are self-aggrandizing because they want to look like heroes.

The truth IMO? Somewhere in the middle.

It's time to start opening up the country safely. I'm hopeful for remdisivir and the other IL-6 inhibitors. Bummed about HCQ.

I will say as this thing plays out. It preys on the elderly frail. For sure. I saw some younger sick as crap folks in the beginning. Seems like most nursing home, dialysis, rehab patients now. Feel for those folks and those working at those places. Nightmare.
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