Record Number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Texas

29,824 Views | 210 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by Pasquale Liucci
Gordo14
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/texas-reports-a-record-high-number-of-hospitalized-coronavirus-patients-after-state-reopened-early.html

While obviously this is manageable now, and we don't have a shortage of resources today... This likely suggests that our current spread is not sustainable long term without overwhelming the healthcare system and a pretty clear indication that it is spreading again. It means we likely have more active infections today than we've ever had in Texas. Just think everybody should be aware and not take the situation as though it's old news.
PJYoung
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AG
Over 1,800.

RandyAg98
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Only 200 more total hospitalized in the entire state above the low point of the dip? I think that's manageable.
Rubble
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Numbers like this are only relevant if they give the age and health conditions of these people hospitalized. Otherwise, it's more fear mongering by the media.
Keegan99
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So we're back to "oh no we're going to overwhelm the healthcare system!!!"

Despite the healthcare system not being overwhelmed ANYWHERE in the US, not even in NYC.
aggiederelict
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You don't think the healthcare system was overwhelmed in NYC? My SIL is a doc in NYC and they were overwhelmed at their hospital in April.
cone
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did the javits center get used at all?
One Eyed Reveille
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They didnt even use those temp hospitals and medical ships, at least very little. And i dont think they ran out of ventilators either, did they? The doctors were overwhelmed though.
Knucklesammich
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individual hospitals were overwhelmed, the system as a whole was not over whelmed as evidenced by surge facilities not being used.

Was the system stressed? Absolutely. Was it a horrific scene in the hardest hit areas? Yes
Did hospitals/care cease to function? No


To me the scale of the graph makes it look way worse than it is. 300 more people were hospitalized in a state with tens of thousands of beds sitting empty.


We opened society back up...everything will spike. car crashes, injuries on construction sites, strep( I know its not lethal), covid, everything will spike. So either we live in a bubble or we get back to it in as responsible way as possible.

Keegan99
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At no point were patients being turned away. Tent hospitals saw only a handful of patients, if that. The USS Comfort Hospital Ship was effectively ornamental.
cone
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I hate to say this because the virus is still out there spreading in areas with previously low prevalence, so lots of wood to burn

but the public health response to the protests broke the back of meaningful stay at home measures. that's over. it's now just mask up, stay distant in public, and handle your own perceived level of risk. and field hospitals as needed.
KidDoc
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This is my opinion from 20 years as a physician here in Texas- not fact.


IMO the reason SOME hospitals were overwhelmed in NYC was the financial motivation of keeping these patients. Hospital executives do not want to transfer patients that are bringing in federal $$ so they were reluctant or even refused to ask for transfers.

The doctors would have loved to transfer I'm sure but I imagine they could not get authorization.

Cynical I know but I would not be at all surprised if this is the case of those few overburdened facilities.

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aggiederelict
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I guess we have different definitions of overwhelmed. When you have 400 admits to an ER in one night and are asking all doctors, despite their level of expertise, to become ER docs it feels like they are overwhelmed.

Patients died that would have lived under different circumstance because resources were stretched very thin.

Just because a hospital didn't shut down doesn't mean they weren't overwhelmed. Just because additional pop up hospitals weren't used doesn't mean they weren't overwhelmed.
Keegan99
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Also, I would need to check the stats on this, but I believe the ICU bed per capita figure in Texas is well above the figure in NYC.
Duncan Idaho
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And the pop up hospitals in central park were used.

https://abc7ny.com/central-park-field-hospitals-coronavirus-nyc-update/6145490/
aggiederelict
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From what I have seen this seems to be the case. We had lengthy discussions with my in laws in NYC about resources available. I was pleasantly surprised to see how well equipped Texas was compared to New York in terms of beds and equipment.
Keegan99
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/23/map-places-america-with-most-fewest-icu-beds/

Pretty significant disparity.
beerad12man
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Individual hospitals are overwhelmed each and every flu season.

We are going to be fine on the whole.
cone
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the NYC serology pointed to a 4% hospitalization rate across the full cohort

that's not what the hospital overwhelm predictions were based on, luckily
Knucklesammich
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The OP mentioned systems, you are talking about individual hospitals. Yes those hospitals were stressed, some beyond measure, but the system itself withstood the demand.

In looking at the DHS data on hospitalizations from 5/27 to 6/8 there is a roughly 300 person increase in hospitalizations of which ~200 were in the Houston area.

some areas are down, some are up.

I think the numbers will trend up, the point of this was never about eliminating the virus from society. We are not an island, people are going to co-mingle. Folks will get sick with this and a ton of other things.

Be measured and weigh your individual risk but life has to continue.

ttuhscaggie
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Stories I'm hearing from healthcare professionals who have returned from going to help in NYC during the worst of it sound completely horrifying tbh. Granted, sounds like a large part of that was do to the mismanagement of available healthcare resources by the brilliant leadership in the state of New York. Especially given the available capacity to triage the Covid positive patients in field hospitals like the ship that was deployed and never used, instead of letting them fester in close proximity to otherwise Covid negative patient populations. Nevertheless, I couldn't believe the stories I've heard from the nurses who were there. Hopefully you didn't need a pacemaker or some other urgent type of non Covid related care during that time period because if you were in Brooklyn you were totally F'ed
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tysker
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From the outside looking in, it seems that patients on long-term ventilator use, while hard on doctors, nurses and techs, is pretty good for the hospital's bottom line.
PJYoung
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The numbers have to trend up, considering how states are now opening up. This is an infectious virus, even with social distancing.

Having said that, we have to open up. We bought time to manufacture PPE and to figure out how to make covid less deadly. In a few weeks the media will finally accept that things are not going to be shut down again and we will just have to live with this virus until a vaccine is widely distributed, hopefully sometime in 2021.
cone
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biggest problem with this is it makes the case for opening schools harder
amercer
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PJYoung said:


In a few weeks the media will finally accept that things are not going to be shut down again and we will just have to live with this virus until a vaccine .


I'm a few weeks all the stories will be about how it's not safe for kids or teachers to go back to school, how you need to wear a mask in your office all day, and how sports shouldn't be played with fans until summer 2021.

I'm a pessimist, but the reality is that nothing has really changed since this started. So it's still easy to argue for shutdowns.
cone
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you can argue but I don't see how you're going to get compliance now
Joe Exotic
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amercer said:

PJYoung said:


In a few weeks the media will finally accept that things are not going to be shut down again and we will just have to live with this virus until a vaccine .


I'm a few weeks all the stories will be about how it's not safe for kids or teachers to go back to school, how you need to wear a mask in your office all day, and how sports shouldn't be played with fans until summer 2021.

I'm a pessimist, but the reality is that nothing has really changed since this started. So it's still easy to argue for shutdowns.


And those "stories" should be ignored too
amercer
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cone said:

you can argue but I don't see how you're going to get compliance now


When my HR department tells me to wear a mask, my school district doesn't let kids back in the building, and teams don't open their stadiums, there isn't really a compliance component to it.
beerad12man
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That will not happen other than the mask thing. people aren't going to go without work for longer
cone
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true

but none of those things are generally happening now and we've already got spiking spread

so yeah, whatever compliance is necessary is not going to be forthcoming. not after the abdication of authority.
Federale01
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Take this as anecdotal but from someone who watched their love one help set up a statewide hospital system's triage and response plan. My SO spent weeks...weeks.... working with a large team updating every thing needed to ensure seamless patient transfers within their hospital system. The capability simply was not there. Prior to this, it was a doctor at one hospital calling a doctor at another to see if they could take the patient who needed an extra-level of care the smaller hospital could not provide. There was no system wide entity tracking resources across the entire board. The best analogy I could come up with is the A&M system. If something happened at A&M in College Station, could we easily transfer records, students, teachers, supplies, within the A&M system as it is currently set up?

I have no doubt some systems were far more ahead of others, but many were not set up to act as a system-wide healthcare provider. They were a bunch of regional hospitals that were clobbered together and management at the system level did not track day to day patient activity. And that is even within the same system. There are multiple private hospital systems that definitely do not have the capability to share records, supplies, or other resources between each other.

NY and NO suffered because they were hit the hardest and were the first outside of the Seattle area, where we originally thought it was localized, for this to appear. While NY suffered, hospital systems every where were updating their plans and fixing the hurdles within their bureaucracy that prevented administrators from using the system to its fullest capacity. I have no doubt hospitals in NY fell victim to a system that very rarely needed to look at a response on a system wide level. The only thing we have had anywhere close to this has been mass casualty responses, but even those are more localized and short-lived. So this was really new territory for a lot of these systems.

While I only know about that one system specifically, my SO explained many systems in the region where taking the same steps because they lacked the ability to track and move folks easily.
TxAG#2011
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Looks like we've added over a hundred since yesterday

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/09/texas-reports-two-consecutive-days-of-record-coronavirus-hospitalizations-weeks-after-reopening.html
Keegan99
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What we're seeing is not a massive rise is new admits, but a lack of discharges.

Perhaps hospitals have modified their discharge policies? Incentives to keep patients longer?
Rubble
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So once again, media fear mongering leaving out important details of the data.
Marcus Aurelius
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Keegan99 said:



What we're seeing is not a massive rise is new admits, but a lack of discharges.

Perhaps hospitals have modified their discharge policies? Incentives to keep patients longer?
That is a huge problem. As I've posted about. The repeat swab pos pt from SNFs that can't go back. And the sickly ones that receive the drug cocktail and plasma, survive, but get stuck on vents etc. They would have died before the therapies that being implemented now.
 
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