That chart is most definitely starting to skew upward for the most recent data.
Record Number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Texas
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Last: 5 yr ago by Pasquale Liucci
Same data, different treatments, different messages. Always check the axis scale. 
It all comes back to deaths right? If infections and hospitalization are going up, but deaths are flat then things are going well.
If deaths are going up then things are going poorly.
If deaths are going up then things are going poorly.
well the percent of people being hospitalized generally indicates the number of eventual deaths
unless the treatments have gotten much better
it would be really useful to see demographics of the recently hospitalized
unless the treatments have gotten much better
it would be really useful to see demographics of the recently hospitalized
Probably not what you're looking for if you just want local info, but the only consistent reporting I've really seen is out of the CDC: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html
COVID-related Hospitalizations:
Using their data sets you can derive the intermediate groups.
COVID-related Hospitalizations:
Using their data sets you can derive the intermediate groups.
Is this all hospitalizations or just COVID?
Great question. To expand on this, are people going to the hospital for something else, get tested automatically, asymptomatic for COVID but there for a different reason (broken arm, appendicitis, kidney stones, etc.), and since they've now tested positive, they're now counted as a COVID patient?Lester Freamon said:
Is this all hospitalizations or just COVID?
cone said:
well the percent of people being hospitalized generally indicates the number of eventual deaths
unless the treatments have gotten much better
it would be really useful to see demographics of the recently hospitalized
I expect the treatments to get better.
Hopefully we are moving past the throw **** at the wall and see if it sticks phase, to some better regimen.
Opening the state produced a spike. Another will appear soon from the protests. These are expected and were predicted by the experts. Our only tool for mitigation until we have a vaccine is distancing and wearing masks. Not a pleasant thought but lives are still to be saved until a vaccine is produced and delivered.
I don't think these protests were predicted by experts weeks ago when they started opening things up
peachbasket said:
Opening the state produced a spike. Another will appear soon from the protests. These are expected and were predicted by the experts. Our only tool for mitigation until we have a vaccine is distancing and wearing masks. Not a pleasant thought but lives are still to be saved until a vaccine is produced and delivered.
The "experts" also predicted "spikes" (people keep using that word - a moderate increase in positives is not a "spike") in other locations that have opened, and none occurred.
For example, Georgia.
Again, unless your testing volumes and standards are held constant, you cannot compare metrics over time.
Sorry if people can not see a trend. My conclusion is that we did flatten the curve, but the current trend is not flat or downward.
I'm glad we did not overwhelm our medical resources, unlike NYC. Look at the Covid death rate per confirmed cases for NY and Texas, 6% vs. 3%. Maybe NY didn't test enough people vs. Texas, but I would think not. Could be other factors. One Texas medical expert stated the death rate difference was due to NY medical being overwhelmed. You can believe him or not, or draw your own conclusion.
We don't have to worry today, there are plenty of beds and ICU beds. Many hospitals have a ICU surge plan to add more if needed. However, if the trend continues in 5 weeks or so, I might start tracking ICU usage.
I'm glad we did not overwhelm our medical resources, unlike NYC. Look at the Covid death rate per confirmed cases for NY and Texas, 6% vs. 3%. Maybe NY didn't test enough people vs. Texas, but I would think not. Could be other factors. One Texas medical expert stated the death rate difference was due to NY medical being overwhelmed. You can believe him or not, or draw your own conclusion.
We don't have to worry today, there are plenty of beds and ICU beds. Many hospitals have a ICU surge plan to add more if needed. However, if the trend continues in 5 weeks or so, I might start tracking ICU usage.
My understanding from the CDC website is it is just COVID related, but to be clear the data are pretty hard to come by.
Could not find the data for admits per day nor discharges per day. Where on the txdshs site does it have both of these?Keegan99 said:
What we're seeing is not a massive rise is new admits, but a lack of discharges.
Perhaps hospitals have modified their discharge policies? Incentives to keep patients longer?
The number of hospitalizations in Texas is extremely low on a per capita basis. We peaked around 1,600 hospitalizations in Virginia with a third of the population of Texas. So once Texas gets to 4,800 hospitalizations you will be where Virginia was at our peak. And we didn't even come close to running out of beds, ICUs or ventilators at our peak. I think the worst we got was 25% of beds in use, 75% available.
I feel pretty good in saying Texas will not run out of hospital beds at any given point. Individual hospitals...remains to be seen. The rural ones worry me somewhat.
Only 2 questions that are relevant:
1) What is the % utilization of ICU beds?
2) What is the exponent of the exponential growth curve that you are seeing?
If these are both in green territory, why would any other question matter?
1) What is the % utilization of ICU beds?
2) What is the exponent of the exponential growth curve that you are seeing?
If these are both in green territory, why would any other question matter?
BusterAg said:
Only 2 questions that are relevant:
1) What is the % utilization of ICU beds?
2) What is the exponent of the exponential growth curve that you are seeing?
If these are both in green territory, why would any other question matter?
Another factor to the growth is what are they actually going to the hospital for, and then getting tested because they test everyone who goes, regardless of why they're there in the first place.
Net definitely doesn't equal new... I'd offer that it's the opposite from what Keegan suggested, because there's compelling evidence that new hospitalizations are increasing, so that would mean discharges are happening faster if the net is relatively neutral.Dazed and Confused said:Could not find the data for admits per day nor discharges per day. Where on the txdshs site does it have both of these?Keegan99 said:
What we're seeing is not a massive rise is new admits, but a lack of discharges.
Perhaps hospitals have modified their discharge policies? Incentives to keep patients longer?
Texas Medical Center has some of the best info, and it's my go-to because my work uses their 7-day average as a metric for when we have to return to the office (we're not close to meeting the threshold, and as the charts show, we're moving in the wrong direction).
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-daily-new-covid-19-hospitalizations/
TMC also has ICU numbers:
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-covid-19-icu-occupancy-trend/
Rubble said:BusterAg said:
Only 2 questions that are relevant:
1) What is the % utilization of ICU beds?
2) What is the exponent of the exponential growth curve that you are seeing?
Need more data points (more weeks of data) to see if and what is the exponential growth. Right now with few data points it is linear.
If these are both in green territory, why would any other question matter?
Another factor to the growth is what are they actually going to the hospital for, and then getting tested because they test everyone who goes, regardless of why they're there in the first place.
Again, the purpose was to point out that this COVID-19 deal is not a thing of the past. The trends are pretty damn clear in an upward direction. My friend who is a resident and has been at 4 hospitals in the past week said we are clearly in the "2nd wave" of cases. The data proves we are in a 2nd wave of cases. And while this is clearly not a serious threat today, this is a very contagious virus and what we are doing is accelerating the spread. Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator of what is happening, so if we see this trend continue for a few weeks we will have a very real problem.
Apathy is not a solution to the problem. It's here whether you like it or not. A likely best case scenario at this point might be a slowly rising hospitalization count over the summer with the real threat of a sudden explosion in the Fall. Alternatively, the huge spike in cases may only be weeks away. We have to be thinking about that possibility now. Hopefully this encourages people who have relaxed their opinions on social distancing and or mask wearing to take it seriously - the virus is likely more prevelant in Texas today than it has ever been.
Apathy is not a solution to the problem. It's here whether you like it or not. A likely best case scenario at this point might be a slowly rising hospitalization count over the summer with the real threat of a sudden explosion in the Fall. Alternatively, the huge spike in cases may only be weeks away. We have to be thinking about that possibility now. Hopefully this encourages people who have relaxed their opinions on social distancing and or mask wearing to take it seriously - the virus is likely more prevelant in Texas today than it has ever been.
It's pretty clear hospitalizations are up in Texas. It's also clear that the level of hospitalizations is still well below our capacity and we are a long ways away from being labeled a hot spot.
The biggest concern for the former is that there is probably no will to change behaviors to turnaround the trend going forward. In fact, we are probably going the other direction with more relaxation of behavior. Therefore, if we keep increasing for the next 2 months, it could potentially turn into a bad situation. However, I would think that our behavior would eventually adjust. The rate of increase is still slow enough that we are probably months away from stessing our medical system.
I do think that the weather helps, but the weather doesn't prevent infections indoors, where a lot of people in Texas and Arizona spend their time in the summer.
For Houston TMC
Hospitalizations trending up since beginning of Phase 2:
But, still well below hospital capacity:
Nate Silver made a great point about how our infections peaking in Texas cannot be compared to NY. In NY's peak, there was something like 10% of all people having active infections. In Texas, it's fractions of 1%.
I also think he made a great point about how early restriction loosening on relatively small/safe areas may give people a false sense of comfort when there is no corresponding rise in cases/deaths. That may cause people to make larger changes and trigger more contagious behavior that gets us back on an exponential growth path. I don't think we are there YET in Texas, but it is something to be aware of and thoughtful of.
The biggest concern for the former is that there is probably no will to change behaviors to turnaround the trend going forward. In fact, we are probably going the other direction with more relaxation of behavior. Therefore, if we keep increasing for the next 2 months, it could potentially turn into a bad situation. However, I would think that our behavior would eventually adjust. The rate of increase is still slow enough that we are probably months away from stessing our medical system.
I do think that the weather helps, but the weather doesn't prevent infections indoors, where a lot of people in Texas and Arizona spend their time in the summer.
For Houston TMC
Hospitalizations trending up since beginning of Phase 2:
But, still well below hospital capacity:
Nate Silver made a great point about how our infections peaking in Texas cannot be compared to NY. In NY's peak, there was something like 10% of all people having active infections. In Texas, it's fractions of 1%.
I also think he made a great point about how early restriction loosening on relatively small/safe areas may give people a false sense of comfort when there is no corresponding rise in cases/deaths. That may cause people to make larger changes and trigger more contagious behavior that gets us back on an exponential growth path. I don't think we are there YET in Texas, but it is something to be aware of and thoughtful of.
Texans are doing it wrong if they are spending a lot of time indoors in the summer. Get on the course in the morning. Go to the lake in the afternoon. Don't waste this away.
Geez. Coworker's kid's daycare just opened back up the week before last. Teacher tested positive today and they're shutting back down for 14 days.
I think the ICU capacity is an important metric, but people are taking that metric as true capacity and tolerance to treat COVID. I seriously doubt there is swing line capacity to suddenly have doctors, nurses, treatment drugs, and medical equipment ramp up as quickly as makeshift ICU beds.
So generally people that end up hospitalized are "higher risk" (some combo of age/health/weight/pre existing conditions etc) right?
Like - If 100 college kids get this Vs. 100 nursing home residents - the latter will have light years higher hospitalizations.
That being the case - seems like it would make since to focus on getting higher risk people to stay home/continue living like we did in March and April ..... and the remainder of us (unless you live with someone who is high risk) can take moderate precautions but more or less keep getting back to normal life.
We should look at any negative trends and say - how do we further protect residents in nursing homes and encourage higher risk people to take precautions? Those folks make up...90%? Of people that end up in hospital for this? It makes 0 since to lump all of society into the same group and pretend that we are all equally at risk (and to blame!) to end up in the hospital if we get covid.
Like - If 100 college kids get this Vs. 100 nursing home residents - the latter will have light years higher hospitalizations.
That being the case - seems like it would make since to focus on getting higher risk people to stay home/continue living like we did in March and April ..... and the remainder of us (unless you live with someone who is high risk) can take moderate precautions but more or less keep getting back to normal life.
We should look at any negative trends and say - how do we further protect residents in nursing homes and encourage higher risk people to take precautions? Those folks make up...90%? Of people that end up in hospital for this? It makes 0 since to lump all of society into the same group and pretend that we are all equally at risk (and to blame!) to end up in the hospital if we get covid.
SoupNazi2001 said:Gordo14 said:
Again, the purpose was to point out that this COVID-19 deal is not a thing of the past. The trends are pretty damn clear in an upward direction. My friend who is a resident and has been at 4 hospitals in the past week said we are clearly in the "2nd wave" of cases. The data proves we are in a 2nd wave of cases. And while this is clearly not a serious threat today, this is a very contagious virus and what we are doing is accelerating the spread. Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator of what is happening, so if we see this trend continue for a few weeks we will have a very real problem.
Apathy is not a solution to the problem. It's here whether you like it or not. A likely best case scenario at this point might be a slowly rising hospitalization count over the summer with the real threat of a sudden explosion in the Fall. Alternatively, the huge spike in cases may only be weeks away. We have to be thinking about that possibility now. Hopefully this encourages people who have relaxed their opinions on social distancing and or mask wearing to take it seriously - the virus is likely more prevelant in Texas today than it has ever been.
No hasn't changed my mind one bit. I will still do what I want and not wear a mask but thanks.
Well then you are accepting that it's millions of decisions like yours that could decide whether or not college football can logistically happen in the fall. While college athletes likely will be ok if they get, sick the more prevelant this is in society they harder it will be to hold sponsored events with or without fans. And this holds true for all things "normal" - including a sustainable and healthy economic recovery. But you're welcome to not wear a mask. Just know the consequences extend beyond you and probably into things that you care about even if you want to believe it's as simple as locking the elderly in nuclear bunkers.
SoupNazi2001 said:Gordo14 said:SoupNazi2001 said:Gordo14 said:
Again, the purpose was to point out that this COVID-19 deal is not a thing of the past. The trends are pretty damn clear in an upward direction. My friend who is a resident and has been at 4 hospitals in the past week said we are clearly in the "2nd wave" of cases. The data proves we are in a 2nd wave of cases. And while this is clearly not a serious threat today, this is a very contagious virus and what we are doing is accelerating the spread. Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator of what is happening, so if we see this trend continue for a few weeks we will have a very real problem.
Apathy is not a solution to the problem. It's here whether you like it or not. A likely best case scenario at this point might be a slowly rising hospitalization count over the summer with the real threat of a sudden explosion in the Fall. Alternatively, the huge spike in cases may only be weeks away. We have to be thinking about that possibility now. Hopefully this encourages people who have relaxed their opinions on social distancing and or mask wearing to take it seriously - the virus is likely more prevelant in Texas today than it has ever been.
No hasn't changed my mind one bit. I will still do what I want and not wear a mask but thanks.
Well then you are accepting that it's millions of decisions like yours that could decide whether or not college football can logistically happen in the fall. While college athletes likely will be ok if they get, sick the more prevelant this is in society they harder it will be to hold sponsored events with or without fans. And this holds true for all things "normal" - including a sustainable and healthy economic recovery. But you're welcome to not wear a mask. Just know the consequences extend beyond you and probably into things that you care about even if you want to believe it's as simple as locking the elderly in nuclear bunkers.
If people can protest in mass then they can certainly attend sporting events. Don't go if you are worried about it.
Yep, because whether you want to go or not decides whether these things happen. Or whether you think the economy should ignore cases going up or not will decide whether the economy takes another hit. You're completely missing the point. Many of these things aren't up to you or even any one person in particular.
We have 28,634 hospital beds available and 2,260 ICU beds available. One key line was left out flatten the curve to prevent hospitals from overcrowding. Texas has been flat as a pancake hospitals are laying off employees because nobody are in them. We are at 10% capacity or under. We have plenty of room for more than a slight uptick. Goal has been achieved move on. Please see link belowDazed and Confused said:
Sorry if people can not see a trend. My conclusion is that we did flatten the curve, but the current trend is not flat or downward.
I'm glad we did not overwhelm our medical resources, unlike NYC. Look at the Covid death rate per confirmed cases for NY and Texas, 6% vs. 3%. Maybe NY didn't test enough people vs. Texas, but I would think not. Could be other factors. One Texas medical expert stated the death rate difference was due to NY medical being overwhelmed. You can believe him or not, or draw your own conclusion.
We don't have to worry today, there are plenty of beds and ICU beds. Many hospitals have a ICU surge plan to add more if needed. However, if the trend continues in 5 weeks or so, I might start tracking ICU usage.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas
billydean05 said:We have 28,634 hospital beds available and 2,260 ICU beds available. One key line was left out flatten the curve to prevent hospitals from overcrowding. Texas has been flat as a pancake hospitals are laying off employees because nobody are in them. We are at 10% capacity or under. We have plenty of room for more than a slight uptick. Goal has been achieved move on. Please see link belowDazed and Confused said:
Sorry if people can not see a trend. My conclusion is that we did flatten the curve, but the current trend is not flat or downward.
I'm glad we did not overwhelm our medical resources, unlike NYC. Look at the Covid death rate per confirmed cases for NY and Texas, 6% vs. 3%. Maybe NY didn't test enough people vs. Texas, but I would think not. Could be other factors. One Texas medical expert stated the death rate difference was due to NY medical being overwhelmed. You can believe him or not, or draw your own conclusion.
We don't have to worry today, there are plenty of beds and ICU beds. Many hospitals have a ICU surge plan to add more if needed. However, if the trend continues in 5 weeks or so, I might start tracking ICU usage.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas
Sure, but that's a very backwards looking perspective on something that needs proactive action to prevent. If we get to 25% of that capacity people need to be nervous and thinking about taking serious action. If we aren't we'll blow by that capacity before you even acknowledge we have a problem with another 2 weeks of people showing up at hospitals.
who in the world thought COVID-19 would just stay flat or steadily decline as we moved back into normal life? This is not surprising, nor a reason for panic. Remain vigilant, do what you can to stay safe and move on.
Texas will not run out of hospital capacity.
That said, a hospital with tons of capacity in Gaines County is little help to a burdened one in Brownsville.
That said, a hospital with tons of capacity in Gaines County is little help to a burdened one in Brownsville.
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