1045 + 2666 = 3711AgE Doc said:
Of the total 712 that ultimately tested positive on the Diamond Princess,
The ship had 1,045 person Crew.
The ship had 2,666 passengers.
NASAg03 said:
Considering NY has 20%+ antibodies, and has been steady at 800 cases / day and 40 deaths / day since June 8, I'd say there's something to this theory.
AgE Doc said:
Spain is beginning to provide more evidence to prove this pandemic doesn't burn out on it's own at 10-20% Infectious Herd Immunity...
Spain sees resurgence in previously hard hit Barcelona, iCataluna province.
On the two hardest hit regions of Spain sees 5,700+ New Cases in Last Week as Barcelona lets down it's guard.
BOTTOM LINE To keep things moving in the right direction...
Wear a mask in public settings at all times when indoors.
Wear a mask in public settings when not able to physically distance from others outside.
Avoid large indoor gatherings.
Give schools the support they need to be able to follow CDC guidelines.
Goodbull_19 said:
If we don't have a 10-20% burnout and lockdowns only delay the inevitable, then in my mind what are we doing? What is the goal?
The rate of transmission may tip under 1 (burnout) due to a combination of things: some level of herd immunity, mask wearing, improved hygiene, social distancing, work from home, etc... It might be hard to tease out the exact burnout threshold with so many other mitigating factors effecting the overall Rt. Perhaps the 20% burnout number is indeed valid when these other mitigation factors are in place. I don't think we will be able to know the answer until a COVID-19 postmortem is performed in future years.Goodbull_19 said:
If we don't have a 10-20% burnout and lockdowns only delay the inevitable, then in my mind what are we doing? What is the goal?
that was likely the + test rate and the only people being tested were either syptomatic or had exposure and not representative of the underlying population. that being said the underlying population in the hard hit areas was likely in 20% rangeAggie95 said:
What was 57% in Madrid?
The population of Madrid is about 6 million...I don't think 3.5 million have/had Covid.
if the soceity is doing large scale mitigation strategies to keep rate of transmission under 1 then it is not burned out. We will never have a Covid Post Mortem that is belived by most Americansjeffdjohnson said:The rate of transmission may tip under 1 (burnout) due to a combination of things: some level of herd immunity, mask wearing, improved hygiene, social distancing, work from home, etc... It might be hard to tease out the exact burnout threshold with so many other mitigating factors effecting the overall Rt. Perhaps the 20% burnout number is indeed valid when these other mitigation factors are in place. I don't think we will be able to know the answer until a COVID-19 postmortem is performed in future years.Goodbull_19 said:
If we don't have a 10-20% burnout and lockdowns only delay the inevitable, then in my mind what are we doing? What is the goal?
the headline does not reflect the article. The headline implies different COVID versions, yet the article discusses different sets of symptoms, which could just be (and probably is) different individual reactions to the same virus.F2Aggie said:
Have not seen this discussed.
Thoughts on different strains of covid? Impact on the 10-20% HIT?
Are different strains hitting different parts of the country/world?
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/07/25/there-are-six-different-types-of-covid-19-researchers-say/
The goal for me would be to do the simple things (pick the low hanging fruit) to keep rate of transmission low while still keeping most of the economy open and the schools open. Masks at all time indoors when in public places. Mask when you can't physically distance outside. Avoid large indoor gatherings. Make hand sanitizer abundantly available in public settings.Goodbull_19 said:
If we don't have a 10-20% burnout and lockdowns only delay the inevitable, then in my mind what are we doing? What is the goal?
One of the main sources of the resurgence in Spain is the Cataluna Province which encompasses Barcelona. This area was one of the hardest hit areas of the country during their first wave, just barely trailing Madrid in cases per capita. Below are screen shots from the article I linked above, that you may not have been able to see without a subscription to the newspaper.flogmat said:
The reason why you'll see a county like Spain have a resurgence is that the original breakout was in one geographic area, and the new breakout is in another that hasn't yet gotten to that burnout threshold.
I think that article is saying that there are different 6 common symptom patterns that COVID-19 can cause. Not everyone infected with the same strain will experience the same exact symptoms for numerous reasons. Their have been some mutations that have happened with COVID-19, and some forms have been speculated to potentially be more contagious than others without necessarily being more or less virulent. However in any given community their will be a primary version of COVID-19 and it will be capable of producing any one of the six different symptom patterns.F2Aggie said:
Have not seen this discussed.
Thoughts on different strains of covid? Impact on the 10-20% HIT?
Are different strains hitting different parts of the country/world?
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/07/25/there-are-six-different-types-of-covid-19-researchers-say/
Aggie95 said:
What was 57% in Madrid?
The population of Madrid is about 6 million...I don't think 3.5 million have/had Covid.
Quote:
The results of the first nationwide population based epidemiological study of SARS-Cov-2 seroprevalence, conducted across Spain, reveal a national prevalence of only 5%, making global efforts to deliver herd immunity through natural infection both "unethical and unachievable," according to experts.
In a survey carried out between 27 April and 11 May and involving more than 61 000 participants in nearly 36 000 households, Marina Polln, professor at Spain's National Centre for Epidemiology in Madrid, with colleagues from the ENE-COVID study group, used two methods to detect anti-covid-19 antibodies: a point of care test and a laboratory immunoassay.1
Although they targeted IgG antibodies against different viral proteins, both tests yielded similar findings, with the point of care test detecting a 5.0% (95% confidence interval 4.7-5.4) nationwide seroprevalence and the immunoassay a 4.6% seroprevalence (95% CI 4.3-5.0).
"Despite the high impact of covid-19 in Spain, prevalence estimates remain low and are clearly insufficient to provide herd immunity," the paper's authors said. "This cannot be achieved without accepting the collateral damage of many deaths in the susceptible population and overburdening health systems. In this situation, social distance measures and efforts to identify and isolate new cases and their contacts are imperative for future epidemic control."
More importantly, if having 10 people in a room, the person might infect 7 of them, when people react and practice social distancing, you might have 3 people in the room and so the number that one person may infection are much lower.flogmat said:
I've read a few different articles that have highlighted burnout, and I think the confusion that people have on the idea is that they don't quite understand that the burnout only happens at a micro level across certain populations at a specific time.
The way it has been described to me is this: early on, when there are few infections, it can more easily spread. Think of it as having 10 people in a room at one time with one infection - that person might infect 7 others. Now, as time passes, and you have 10 people in a room, with 5 already infected, there are less available hosts and so the system slowly burns out. 20% seems like just an average, but I do think this makes sense in a given population.
The reason why you'll see a county like Spain have a resurgence is that the original breakout was in one geographic area, and the new breakout is in another that hasn't yet gotten to that burnout threshold.
More importantly, the shorter the immunity acquired from the disease, the harder it may be to ever achieve herd immunity as those who were once immune become susceptible once more.Sq 17 said:if the soceity is doing large scale mitigation strategies to keep rate of transmission under 1 then it is not burned out. We will never have a Covid Post Mortem that is belived by most Americansjeffdjohnson said:The rate of transmission may tip under 1 (burnout) due to a combination of things: some level of herd immunity, mask wearing, improved hygiene, social distancing, work from home, etc... It might be hard to tease out the exact burnout threshold with so many other mitigating factors effecting the overall Rt. Perhaps the 20% burnout number is indeed valid when these other mitigation factors are in place. I don't think we will be able to know the answer until a COVID-19 postmortem is performed in future years.Goodbull_19 said:
If we don't have a 10-20% burnout and lockdowns only delay the inevitable, then in my mind what are we doing? What is the goal?
Sq 17 said:
great news for the Florida Marlins 20% ( as of today 14 players and staff ) have caught the Covid so i guess the other members of the team are safe.
cone said:
that's not how it works but good to know you're having fun during a deadly pandemic
cone said:
does that mean the ceiling for age is now 80 (or maybe less)?
since this thing kills 1 in 6 out that age and older? no lasting immunity means it'll eventually get them all and the population decay will be very rapid.
