amercer said:
Unfortunately Sweden is nowhere near heard immunity. I like their response because they tried to be pragmatic and follow the science. However it's been far from an unmitigated success. They have a far higher death rate than their neighbors.
The other thing that usually gets ignored is that the Swedes did put a lot of restrictions in place. They social distanced, they banned large gatherings, and closed schools for kids 16 and up.
Most importantly though, they don't seem to be operating from any sort of ideological extreme. If they decide next weeks that they need to mandate masks and close pubs they will do it and the people will comply.
It will be a decade before we know if Sweden or New Zealand or neither is the right approach. But if people in the US would focus on trying the most likely successful approaches instead of picking a ideological outcome and working backwards to a strategy, we'd be much better off.
How long were their schools closed; I saw a Reuters report from July 15 indicating they didn't close schools during the pandemic, and their health agency said schools did not spur pandemic spread. In June CNN was there showing essentially large gatherings at pubs/restaurants as usual. I think their 'total deaths' like ours are inflated when analyzed as 'contributing' vs. 'primary' factor.
Their
total deaths for the year are normal, basically, and almost no covid deaths under 70.
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But a Twitter researcher who goes by the name El Gato Malo (The Bad Cat) did a thread that's essential reading for anyone who wants to understand whether Sweden made the right choice.
It turns out their COVID numbers are incredibly good even independently of the fact that they seem to be avoiding the recent spike in cases that lockdown nations are experiencing.
Moreover, there are differences in the criteria for counting COVID-19 deaths which cast a very different light on some of the comparisons being made.
To start by considering Sweden's numbers in isolation, their COVID fatalities were almost entirely restricted to the elderly. 88% were over 70 and 75% were in nursing homes or elder care. Only 4.5% of fatalities were under 60.
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sweden had almost no deaths among the young
88% were over 70 years old and 75% in nursing homes or elder care.
even if lockdown had been 100% effective in stopping every death under 60, that would have been 4.5% of deaths.
so give it a rest guys. pic.twitter.com/zFIHqi3nPl
el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 21, 2020
Sweden had less than 500 reported COVID fatalities under 70, just 12% of the total.
Again it's questionable if flattening the curve, to the extent it works, just causes more deaths net, among the most at risk population. Finally, as to herd immunity I think this is something that is not yet fully known, but they/we are probably a lot closer than many believe.
