I saw the priorty list first and certainly agree with those. It does not have a timetable on how long to get 1a and 1 b done. Anyone guess how long till they get to non priorty one people?
any informed gestimates on vaccine roll out?
10,171 Views |
97 Replies |
Last: 5 yr ago by CDub06
not an expert at all, but I would guess March at the earliest and June at the latest as for when "general population" will start receiving vaccines
Please tell me there's a special place in Heaven for Aggie fans! It's like we are living some sort of penance on Earth.
I think you'll be able to get it in Phase 2 because you're a teacher.
From what I've heard Phase 2 will include teachers and supply chain essential workers.
From what I've heard Phase 2 will include teachers and supply chain essential workers.
There is going to be a higher demand than supply for possibly years. This BS about needing proof to go places is silly for that reason. As well as the fact those that have had it should be at the bottom of the list.
How quickly we move through the phases will depend on 2 things. Vaccine supply and how many in each group wants to get it.
Pfizer said they have 50 million doses ready to go by the end of the year and Moderna has about that many as well. Both will start shipping within a day of getting all the approvals. Based on the expected timeline of the FDA and CDC meetings, Pfizer likely starts shipping the week of Dec 14. Moderna submitted on Monday so is a couple days behind. Since they are both 2 dose vaccines, 100 million doses is enough for about 50 million people. However, the doses are administered a month apart, so you could administer more than half counting on the deliveries in Jan to provide the second dose. Trump administration prepurchased 100 million doses from each with options for more. Given the plan by both companies to get production to 1 billion doses or more in 2021, which would mean they get close to 100 million doses per month by the end of the year.
If AZ and J&J and anyone else gets their vaccines approved, their doses will be added to the pile and can accelerate the progression through the phases.
The other side is demand, and after spending months saying the vaccine was rushed and won't be safe, the media will have to really push the vaccine safety to get people to want to take it. Mid summer, polling suggested 75% would take it, but that dropped to 50% more recently after the "Trump is rushing it" stories. If it holds at 50%, we could potentially vaccinate everyone who wants it with about 330 million doses.
Also, keep in mind we get a new president inaugurated Jan 20 and this could impact the timeline. Trump was very much America first and was doing things to ensure Americans get the vaccine quickly. For example, he didn't sign America onto the agreement to ensure all countries got vaccine "at the same time". Biden wants to distance us from America first and play nice with the rest of the world again. That could include slowing the rollout of vaccine in the US to share some of the supply with other countries.
Pfizer said they have 50 million doses ready to go by the end of the year and Moderna has about that many as well. Both will start shipping within a day of getting all the approvals. Based on the expected timeline of the FDA and CDC meetings, Pfizer likely starts shipping the week of Dec 14. Moderna submitted on Monday so is a couple days behind. Since they are both 2 dose vaccines, 100 million doses is enough for about 50 million people. However, the doses are administered a month apart, so you could administer more than half counting on the deliveries in Jan to provide the second dose. Trump administration prepurchased 100 million doses from each with options for more. Given the plan by both companies to get production to 1 billion doses or more in 2021, which would mean they get close to 100 million doses per month by the end of the year.
If AZ and J&J and anyone else gets their vaccines approved, their doses will be added to the pile and can accelerate the progression through the phases.
The other side is demand, and after spending months saying the vaccine was rushed and won't be safe, the media will have to really push the vaccine safety to get people to want to take it. Mid summer, polling suggested 75% would take it, but that dropped to 50% more recently after the "Trump is rushing it" stories. If it holds at 50%, we could potentially vaccinate everyone who wants it with about 330 million doses.
Also, keep in mind we get a new president inaugurated Jan 20 and this could impact the timeline. Trump was very much America first and was doing things to ensure Americans get the vaccine quickly. For example, he didn't sign America onto the agreement to ensure all countries got vaccine "at the same time". Biden wants to distance us from America first and play nice with the rest of the world again. That could include slowing the rollout of vaccine in the US to share some of the supply with other countries.
I don't think we need much more than 100 million people vaccinated. That is due to the young + already infected + refusal to get vaccinated will help alleviate some of the demand issues.
We should be able to get 100 million doses by mid to late next year. In theory, even as a small percentage gets vaccinated (monthly)....the virus will find fewer hosts and hopefully begin to die off and not mutate into something worse.
We should be able to get 100 million doses by mid to late next year. In theory, even as a small percentage gets vaccinated (monthly)....the virus will find fewer hosts and hopefully begin to die off and not mutate into something worse.
Please tell me there's a special place in Heaven for Aggie fans! It's like we are living some sort of penance on Earth.
those other countries can get the Russian or China vaccines.
Please tell me there's a special place in Heaven for Aggie fans! It's like we are living some sort of penance on Earth.
Player To Be Named Later
Joined:
Sep 22, 2003
Posts:
23,247
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Curious how the "Phases" will work. Will you need to show your physician proof that you meet one of the categories for Phase 1, 2, etc? That seems like a potential cluster. And what do we expect distribution points to be? Can't imagine they're just going to ship doses to every PCP, hoping they will only give them to patients in the 1st Phase group.
Be interesting to see how they handle it but I think they can get through it quicker than we think. I'd imagine a lot of kids are not going to be vaccinated and young people in general (I imagine we will not vaccinate our kids since they are at such low risk).
It will start in two weeks and be done by June.
Username checks out.
Why would someone that has had it get vaccinated?ORAggieFan said:
There is going to be a higher demand than supply for possibly years. This BS about needing proof to go places is silly for that reason. As well as the fact those that have had it should be at the bottom of the list.
It sounds like the goal is to have vaccination on demand to anyone who wants it by April. Between all of the vaccine candidates I think that would be a very real possibility, if not earlier. There may be four or five vaccines ready for use early next year. I think the vast majority of the vulnerable or people with exposure risk will have had the option to take it likely by end of February.
Because proof of vaccination is going to be needed for entry to places......The_Fox said:Why would someone that has had it get vaccinated?ORAggieFan said:
There is going to be a higher demand than supply for possibly years. This BS about needing proof to go places is silly for that reason. As well as the fact those that have had it should be at the bottom of the list.
Yeah. If I have it, I do not need a vaccination. I'll get an antibody test if requested, but will not take the vaccine.ORAggieFan said:Because proof of vaccination is going to be needed for entry to places......The_Fox said:Why would someone that has had it get vaccinated?ORAggieFan said:
There is going to be a higher demand than supply for possibly years. This BS about needing proof to go places is silly for that reason. As well as the fact those that have had it should be at the bottom of the list.
Need to kill this virus like smallpox and polio
Stories are circulating that priority after essential workers will be to underserved populations....
Are any from credible sources i.e. other than Forum 16?88planoAg said:
Stories are circulating that priority after essential workers will be to underserved populations....
Username checks out.
Given that the deaths and hospitalizations have disproportionately impacted those groups, this isn't a bad idea if you want to reduce stress on the healthcare system. although some will still complain about reverse discrimination...
It is all over the interwebs, and straight from the CDC. Slide show contains that language:I Am A Critic said:Are any from credible sources i.e. other than Forum 16?88planoAg said:
Stories are circulating that priority after essential workers will be to underserved populations....
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-08/COVID-08-Dooling.pdf
Problem is that community has a low trust of govt and vaccines so few are going to volunteer to get it. How long will they make the rest of the population wait?pocketrockets06 said:
Given that the deaths and hospitalizations have disproportionately impacted those groups, this isn't a bad idea if you want to reduce stress on the healthcare system. although some will still complain about reverse discrimination...
I Am A Critic said:Are any from credible sources i.e. other than Forum 16?88planoAg said:
Stories are circulating that priority after essential workers will be to underserved populations....
Yes. State of Texas released details of the distribution plan. There is emphasis on getting it to underserved populations. There was also a lot of effort to include minorities in the phase 3 testing. I believe Moderna paused recruitment at one point because they had too many Caucasian and not enough Black/Hispanic. Basically one of the companies that was recruiting volunteers dropped the ball.
88planoAg said:
Stories are circulating that priority after essential workers will be to underserved populations....
I think it will manifest more as an extra effort to get it to those underserved rather than refusing vaccine to others.
I think phase 2 and phase 3 will overlap.
A lot of underserved are also in the essential worker category.
Example would be the meat packing plants.
A lot of underserved are also in the essential worker category.
Example would be the meat packing plants.
Player To Be Named Later said:
Curious how the "Phases" will work. Will you need to show your physician proof that you meet one of the categories for Phase 1, 2, etc? That seems like a potential cluster. And what do we expect distribution points to be? Can't imagine they're just going to ship doses to every PCP, hoping they will only give them to patients in the 1st Phase group.
Phase 1 plan includes sending it to facilities where the phase 1 people are. Basically ship vaccine to hospitals for front line healthcare workers and old folks homes to get those people. Obviously some amount of send it to the PCPs for the other high risk there, although the little doc offices aren't going to have a -70 freezer to hold the Pfizer vaccine.
Any large clinic is likely to have controls in place to ensure vaccine goes to high risk patients. Little doc office where the single doc may have more ability to favor certain patients would likely have less vaccine.
At the end of the day, there will be some who get it that won't fit the criteria of phase 1.
I though it interesting that as I read it, workers at nursing homes are piority one.. and I agree, but I did not see that residents were priority one? I would think that is our most fragile group.
I think the idea is to protect them by vaccinating their caretakers.
Easy to control that in a nursing home setting.
What sucks is it still leaves them locked away.
Easy to control that in a nursing home setting.
What sucks is it still leaves them locked away.
Player To Be Named Later
Joined:
Sep 22, 2003
Posts:
23,247
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Makes sense. Just wondering how this is likely to work out. I'm in law enforcement with a couple of risk factors. Figured it is unlikely most PCPs will receive them early on. Our City has a City Employee Health Clinic, maybe they'll receive some doses for FD/PD.
Really hoping for access to the Moderna vaccine, as that sounds like the best of the 3 to me.
Really hoping for access to the Moderna vaccine, as that sounds like the best of the 3 to me.
They split old people across the first and second phase. First s old people with significant comorbidities, second is the healthier old people. I imagine most people in a nursing home might fall in the first group, but just being in a nursing home shouldn't move you to the front of the line over an old person with risk factors that lives with family.3rd Generation Ag said:
I though it interesting that as I read it, workers at nursing homes are piority one.. and I agree, but I did not see that residents were priority one? I would think that is our most fragile group.
BiochemAg97 said:They split old people across the first and second phase. First s old people with significant comorbidities, second is the healthier old people. I imagine most people in a nursing home might fall in the first group, but just being in a nursing home shouldn't move you to the front of the line over an old person with risk factors that lives with family.3rd Generation Ag said:
I though it interesting that as I read it, workers at nursing homes are piority one.. and I agree, but I did not see that residents were priority one? I would think that is our most fragile group.
I'd agree with that but depending on which vaccine, the cold chain might not.
Of course, your ability to get a vaccine might have a lot to do with you employer.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2020/11/24/ford-purchases-12-ultra-cold-freezers-store-covid-19-vaccine-doses/6407523002/
Expect big tech to do the same.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2020/11/24/ford-purchases-12-ultra-cold-freezers-store-covid-19-vaccine-doses/6407523002/
Expect big tech to do the same.
Play nice means America last.
By the way , I am pretty sure WE invested tax dollars heavily in the development of the vaccine.
Americans should absolutely be first in line. PERIOD.
By the way , I am pretty sure WE invested tax dollars heavily in the development of the vaccine.
Americans should absolutely be first in line. PERIOD.
The freezers aren't that hard to come by. You can't go to your local Home Depot/lowes to pick one up, but they are standard equipment in research labs handling biological material.Duncan Idaho said:
Of course, your ability to get a vaccine might have a lot to do with you employer.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2020/11/24/ford-purchases-12-ultra-cold-freezers-store-covid-19-vaccine-doses/6407523002/
Expect big tech to do the same.
Many employers have had flu vaccine programs for years. Mine has Walgreens come on site for a day and give flu vaccines. Except this year, no one is in the office. I don't really see this as any different.
However, being prepared doesn't necessarily mean Ford is going to get vaccine before it is widely available.
An employee at Texas Children's Hospital in Houston said their CEO sent out a mass email stating employees will be able to receive the vaccine starting next week.
Odd, FDA hasn't approved any of them and doesn't have the meeting to do that scheduled until mid Dec.Arin Jobe said:
An employee at Texas Children's Hospital in Houston said their CEO sent out a mass email stating employees will be able to receive the vaccine starting next week.
agree that is a bit strange....the timeline mentioned when Pfizer first asked for EAU was 3 weeks. I think they applied around the 20th, so that would put it mid December at the earliest.
Please tell me there's a special place in Heaven for Aggie fans! It's like we are living some sort of penance on Earth.
Featured Stories
See All
Cushing has constructed A&M's O-line through toughness and love
by Olin Buchanan
16:28
10h ago
1.4k
Aggie guard Rylan Griffen treating every game as 'win or go home'
by Luke Evangelist
16:13
16h ago
2.9k
13:19
12h ago
1.6k
15:06
11h ago
861
Catcher Bear Harrison remains impressed by A&M's depth
by Ryan Brauninger