J&J 72% effective for US Variant

7,905 Views | 47 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by nortex97
bay fan
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HotardAg07 said:

Immubiology professor from Yale:


Now that's good messaging.....something we've lacked and would make me feel better about pulling in and being told today you're getting the J&J vaccine! Thanks for sharing.
Aust Ag
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hoosierAG said:

We have let perfect become the enemy of good. There is no 100% guarantee in anything in life. How did we get here as a society?

That we have these vaccines already (supply/distribution bugs notwithstanding) is a miracle. That all of them are so good and robust, as posts show above (and better than any flu vaccine) is even more amazing. But the picking them apart for whatever reason, and the media infatuation with doing so instead of promoting is killing it and bringing more despair.

We are our own worst enemy.
I think there are underlying reasons why people are "picking them apart". I have a few friends who are absolutely loving working from home, and dread the day they are called back. And they also talk down the vaccine.

I think they want this to drag out as long as possible. Oh, and don't forget, when you turn on the local news, how many of the media are broadcasting from home?
Dad
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This J&J vaccine sounds awesome if they can produce and distribute it much faster. If everyone that wants a shot can get one then the pandemic is over once those shots are in full effect. The people that are able to get one at that point but don't want the vaccine would know the risks and live (or die) with the consequences if it doesn't work out.
Aust Ag
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Well said.
Aust Ag
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They said on the news it will be out by the EOM.
nortex97
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Dad said:

This J&J vaccine sounds awesome if they can produce and distribute it much faster. If everyone that wants a shot can get one then the pandemic is over once those shots are in full effect. The people that are able to get one at that point but don't want the vaccine would know the risks and live (or die) with the consequences if it doesn't work out.
The only thing is that (a) the pandemic has been over since early summer by any ordinary metric previously used, and (b) the case-demic at present has led to folks who only will change policies like masks etc. once it has been completely eradicated.

I am not in any way saying the J/J vaccine is bad/I wish it didn't happen, I just don't think vaccine prevalence will change the government/public policies as you indicate.
The Big12Ag
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nortex97 said:

Dad said:

This J&J vaccine sounds awesome if they can produce and distribute it much faster. If everyone that wants a shot can get one then the pandemic is over once those shots are in full effect. The people that are able to get one at that point but don't want the vaccine would know the risks and live (or die) with the consequences if it doesn't work out.
The only thing is that (a) the pandemic has been over since early summer by any ordinary metric previously used, and (b) the case-demic at present has led to folks who only will change policies like masks etc. once it has been completely eradicated.


I'd recommend you look up:

1) Definition of the word pandemic
2) History of respiratory pandemics over last 100-150 years
3) Average duration of those past pandemics
nortex97
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The Big12Ag said:

nortex97 said:

Dad said:

This J&J vaccine sounds awesome if they can produce and distribute it much faster. If everyone that wants a shot can get one then the pandemic is over once those shots are in full effect. The people that are able to get one at that point but don't want the vaccine would know the risks and live (or die) with the consequences if it doesn't work out.
The only thing is that (a) the pandemic has been over since early summer by any ordinary metric previously used, and (b) the case-demic at present has led to folks who only will change policies like masks etc. once it has been completely eradicated.


I'd recommend you look up:

1) Definition of the word pandemic
2) History of respiratory pandemics over last 100-150 years
3) Average duration of those past pandemics
I'd recommend you condescend a little less.

This board shouldn't be about tit for tat battles of links etc.

The China virus pandemic is and has been over, it is not a matter of debate now, regardless of your tone/emotions.
AgsMyDude
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nortex97 said:

The Big12Ag said:

nortex97 said:

Dad said:

This J&J vaccine sounds awesome if they can produce and distribute it much faster. If everyone that wants a shot can get one then the pandemic is over once those shots are in full effect. The people that are able to get one at that point but don't want the vaccine would know the risks and live (or die) with the consequences if it doesn't work out.
The only thing is that (a) the pandemic has been over since early summer by any ordinary metric previously used, and (b) the case-demic at present has led to folks who only will change policies like masks etc. once it has been completely eradicated.


I'd recommend you look up:

1) Definition of the word pandemic
2) History of respiratory pandemics over last 100-150 years
3) Average duration of those past pandemics
I'd recommend you condescend a little less.

This board shouldn't be about tit for tat battles of links etc.

The China virus pandemic is and has been over, it is not a matter of debate now, regardless of your tone/emotions.

Would you mind expanding on exactly the criteria of a pandmic that covid no longer meets as of "early summer"?
The Big12Ag
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nortex97 said:

The Big12Ag said:

nortex97 said:

Dad said:

This J&J vaccine sounds awesome if they can produce and distribute it much faster. If everyone that wants a shot can get one then the pandemic is over once those shots are in full effect. The people that are able to get one at that point but don't want the vaccine would know the risks and live (or die) with the consequences if it doesn't work out.
The only thing is that (a) the pandemic has been over since early summer by any ordinary metric previously used, and (b) the case-demic at present has led to folks who only will change policies like masks etc. once it has been completely eradicated.


I'd recommend you look up:

1) Definition of the word pandemic
2) History of respiratory pandemics over last 100-150 years
3) Average duration of those past pandemics
I'd recommend you condescend a little less.

This board shouldn't be about tit for tat battles of links etc.

The China virus pandemic is and has been over, it is not a matter of debate now, regardless of your tone/emotions.
We can agree that the definition of a pandemic is not a matter up for debate regardless of personal opinions or desires to change the definition.

When the regulatory boards and experts who apply the definition state we are still in the pandemic phase of this novel virus, and it is consistent with past pandemic guidance and durations, then to me it seems a little condescending for a lay person to come in and say "WRONG, ended 8 months ago". Just depends on how you look at it I guess.
nortex97
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AgsMyDude said:

nortex97 said:

The Big12Ag said:

nortex97 said:

Dad said:

This J&J vaccine sounds awesome if they can produce and distribute it much faster. If everyone that wants a shot can get one then the pandemic is over once those shots are in full effect. The people that are able to get one at that point but don't want the vaccine would know the risks and live (or die) with the consequences if it doesn't work out.
The only thing is that (a) the pandemic has been over since early summer by any ordinary metric previously used, and (b) the case-demic at present has led to folks who only will change policies like masks etc. once it has been completely eradicated.


I'd recommend you look up:

1) Definition of the word pandemic
2) History of respiratory pandemics over last 100-150 years
3) Average duration of those past pandemics
I'd recommend you condescend a little less.

This board shouldn't be about tit for tat battles of links etc.

The China virus pandemic is and has been over, it is not a matter of debate now, regardless of your tone/emotions.

Would you mind expanding on exactly the criteria of a pandmic that covid no longer meets as of "early summer"?
Sure. It was not a global threat to the general human population as of this summer. It's never threatened, substantially, much of African and southern hemisphere populations (including India/China), and in general impacts only a limited subset of people in certain latitudes (without prior immunity and because it is a seasonal illness/virus as all coronaviruses are). It now and has been an endemic virus for some time in the northern hemisphere, and a threat there to at risk populations (elderly/immunocompromised without the vaccines) only at this time, really.


Quote:

A pandemic refers to a global epidemic one that has spread over several countries or continents affecting a large number of people. Dr. Pritish Tosh adds, "In epidemiologic terms, an outbreak refers to a number of cases that exceeds what would be expected. A pandemic is when there is an outbreak that affects most of the world. We use the term endemic when there is an infection within a geographic location that is existing perpetually."

The case loads, and various metrics tracking it are wildly inaccurate now thanks to over use of PCR testing. Compare, just for example, to how H1N1 panic/definitions were handled and classified, or the spanish flu.

It's absolutely no longer a pandemic, globally,and hasn't been for some time (even if you want to pick on 'early summer'). I think there's a lot of regional/racial bigotry in the desire to define this as an ongoing global pandemic, frankly (not a personal accusation, obviously).
The Big12Ag
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nortex97 said:

AgsMyDude said:

nortex97 said:

The Big12Ag said:

nortex97 said:

Dad said:

This J&J vaccine sounds awesome if they can produce and distribute it much faster. If everyone that wants a shot can get one then the pandemic is over once those shots are in full effect. The people that are able to get one at that point but don't want the vaccine would know the risks and live (or die) with the consequences if it doesn't work out.
The only thing is that (a) the pandemic has been over since early summer by any ordinary metric previously used, and (b) the case-demic at present has led to folks who only will change policies like masks etc. once it has been completely eradicated.


I'd recommend you look up:

1) Definition of the word pandemic
2) History of respiratory pandemics over last 100-150 years
3) Average duration of those past pandemics
I'd recommend you condescend a little less.

This board shouldn't be about tit for tat battles of links etc.

The China virus pandemic is and has been over, it is not a matter of debate now, regardless of your tone/emotions.

Would you mind expanding on exactly the criteria of a pandmic that covid no longer meets as of "early summer"?
Sure. It was not a global threat to the general human population as of this summer. It's never threatened, substantially, much of African and southern hemisphere populations (including India/China), and in general impacts only a limited subset of people in certain latitudes (without prior immunity and because it is a seasonal illness/virus as all coronaviruses are). It now and has been an endemic virus for some time in the northern hemisphere, and a threat there to at risk populations (elderly/immunocompromised without the vaccines) only at this time, really.


Quote:

A pandemic refers to a global epidemic one that has spread over several countries or continents affecting a large number of people. Dr. Pritish Tosh adds, "In epidemiologic terms, an outbreak refers to a number of cases that exceeds what would be expected. A pandemic is when there is an outbreak that affects most of the world. We use the term endemic when there is an infection within a geographic location that is existing perpetually."

The case loads, and various metrics tracking it are wildly inaccurate now thanks to over use of PCR testing. Compare, just for example, to how H1N1 panic/definitions were handled and classified, or the spanish flu.

It's absolutely no longer a pandemic, globally,and hasn't been for some time (even if you want to pick on 'early summer'). I think there's a lot of regional/racial bigotry in the desire to define this as an ongoing global pandemic, frankly (not a personal accusation, obviously).
Although you said this shouldn't be a battle of links before later supplying three links in the post above, I still want to thank you for providing them. The links you shared showed how the H1N1 pandemic ran for 14 months despite having far few cases and deaths than Covid 19 and despite also not impacting every country in identical ways.

Thanks for also added the definition of pandemic. Let's pick out some key sections for discussion:

1) one that has spread over several countries or continents: You can find continental impact here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_by_country_and_territory#By_continent
2) affecting a large number of people : The World Health Organization, who makes the pandemic declarations as noted in the H1N1 links you shared, still defines Covid 19 as a pandemic and has stats (which show the bulk of cases on all continents occurred after the summer) here: https://covid19.who.int/
3) an outbreak refers to a number of cases that exceeds what would be expected : a novel virus leads to pandemic declarations because NO cases were expected. It's new.
4) affects most of the world : As seen in prior links, it has impacted every continent and bulk of cases on each continent occurred after the summer if not very recently. When it comes to developing nations, their health systems and vastly younger population will limit both ability to identify confirmed cases but also limit mortality if the disease is impacting older people disproportionately.


One note about something you wrote; "much of African and southern hemisphere populations (including India/China)" - India, China, and the bulk of Africa are in the northern hemisphere.
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nortex97
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JJMt said:

Quote:

It's never threatened, substantially, much of African and southern hemisphere populations (including India/China),
How can you say that?

India is #2 in the world right now in no. of positive cases, and Brazil is #3. Brazil is #2 in terms of total deaths and India is #4.

China we don't know because no one trusts the data out of China.

And my guess is that although India and Brazil aren't likely intentionally lying, their data gathering systems are probably suspect, and the numbers are likely worse than what they're reporting.

Because I understand statistics. India isn't even at 8K per million right now. It's relatively trivial given her population. Brazil is in flu season in much of the country but the rate there isn't what we had here at all, nor is it rising.

Our president and his son/brother trusts China so I will not choose to add politicization to this board. They're doing great, by all metrics.
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