Agreed

bay fan said:

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I suspect it will be when the vaccine is widely available. That is not the case right now. With any luck we will be in a better position within 6 months, so my guess is summer

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Agree with 6 months. Maybe 6-9 months. The key is getting the vaccine as wide spread as possible. That will significantly decrease the number of positives and allow many to start seeing the end of the need for them. The fact is, a lot of people are still very nervous about getting the virus. Is what it is. Some will not feel comfortable for a while on an individual level. Others already don't wear them.

I watched a woman across from me at the gas station get out of her car, fill her tank fully masked and just extremely uncomfortable touching everything then return to her car when finished and bath her hands in hand sanitizer thoroughly. Then proceed to drive off, alone, masked up. She is nervous about this, and I get it. My neighbors are a couple where the husband works for a medical tech company and he isn't that nervous, but his wife is, in his words, obsessed about it. She makes them mask in the car after getting groceries incase the bags have the virus on them and it possibly could float around in the car while they drive. She comes home each night to complain about people coming into her office or just walking around not masked. She was always a bit of a germaphobe and he gives her the grace and just follows along to keep her comfortable. I respect that about him, as my patience would be a lot thinner as she isn't following the science of this but instead the fear porn media. It's not my business and she is extremely sweet and nice and we all love her. I don't blame her. The media has been extremely irresponsible during all of this. Our new neighbors across the street seem to leave all of there deliveries outside their door for days even though they are home and even come out and go inside leaving packages there. Maybe they just don't care but I wouldn't leave those out fearing someone may steal them. Some of these are larger packages but not to large that they couldn't easily be brought in but large enough that they might be easily noticed by thieves looking for an opportunity. ANd there can be 2-3 sitting out there for a period of time. Our theory is that they are worried that the packages will have the virus on them and are afraid of picking it up off the surface. Yet the CDC has already stated that their initial warnings about how long the virus lives on surfaces were incorrect and that it does relatively quickly on surfaces plus it is hard to get infected that way. Point of all of this is that individuals will still continue precautions for some time I think. One doesn't normally go from that level to no mask after just a couple of shots.

On a state or county level, what I see happening is red states start dropping the mandates first with "strong" encouragement to continue masking on your own a while longer or while experts state we should. That way they can step back cleanly from a political perspective and still show support for masking. Blue states will just take longer. A lot of those states still have much more strict lock down mandates across the board, with even schools still closed. I seriously doubt they go from a lockdown environment to fully open with no masks in one step. I could see some states taking as long as 12 more months, and even think there will be some that argue that given how masking and social distancing has probably helped limit the flu cases significantly, we should keep the mandates at least through flu season. Doubt that will stick though. I think even the most ardent mask mandate supporters will be ready to burn these things.

masks will be the last thing to go

i fully expect HISD to require masks for in-person next fall

Dad said:

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I've had both doses of the vaccine but will keep wearing one until there are unused doses of the vaccine without an arm to go in. The moment that happens I am done with masks and will purposely not wear one anywhere unless asked. If everyone does that the stores and other businesses will just stop enforcing it and masks will be done. My guess is that time is coming by June.

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Here in Collin County most stores don't enforce the mandate. I am sure other areas of the state are the opposite, but here, my friends who don't mask tell me no one really bothers them. I think most retail stores would just rather avoid the drama of trying to enforce the mandate and it's honestly above most of these workers' paygrade. So here the transition will very easy and smooth. Austin might be another story. The city and many of my Austin friends are much more invested in the mandate. I see this taking longer in those communities. I do think that once the state drops their mandate, the counties will not be aloud to enforce their own, as I thought the Governor stated that any state level trumps the county and city level. So if the state declares there is no need to mask, a county cannot override that. I could be VERY wrong on this though.

cone said:

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if you think vaccinations and low hospitalizations are sufficient to break the spell, well i wish i agreed with you

we've changed the rules of polite society and allowable risk. the draw back/down from that will take a while.

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Yes, I do think they will be, at least from a policy level, There will likely be no need to much longer(already isn't but I digress). Some businesses might still keep it regardless. Many people will individually. But no longer state/county required.

My HOPE is that all restrictions here in most counties of Texas are all but gone around May-August depending on how large the cities are. The smaller county/cities, maybe on the earlier end. Houston/DFW/Austin areas maybe on the later end. At the very least I sincerely hope we don't muzzle children again this fall.

Numbers will likely be awfully low by then and should be all that matter from a political standpoint.

Probably fair to say that the more pro-mask you are, the more likely you are to get the vax whenever you possibly can. Like, is there even one person who is pro-mask but doesn't want the vaccine?

That being the case.....If the goal is to get the highest % of people possible to get the vax ASAP - probably would be a good policy idea for a governor/mayor to state "the mask mandate will fully go away once we hit __% vax".

I know that our "experts'" heads would explode at the thought of such a sales pitch.....but it would deliver results much better than the current plan of lecturing from the podium

I have already heard of talk of still requiring young children to mask and distance for school in the fall because kids won't be vaccinated yet.

AggieSarah01 said:

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I have already heard of talk of still requiring young children to mask and distance for school in the fall because kids won't be vaccinated yet.

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this is what i'm talking about

and there's going to be a push to get kids vaccinated and there's going to be significant blowback since kids don't get very sick and getting them vax'd under a EUA is kinda crazy

but that will be a sticking point

masks have become a form of polite signaling. not sure how we retreat from that until after next winter (i'm thinking that the crisis will largely abate by summer, but we're going to be kept on tenterhooks in the run up and through next winter to see if the vaccinations work under a seasonal stress test and we avoid a significant wave).

I predict that they will find that if you are vaccinated, you won't be able to spread the virus very well and your risk is very small at catching it. As such, masks won't be needed by school aged children or even college aged/early to mid 20's as their at minimal to no risk from the virus as a whole. But I can see them still enforcing ISD masking policies for a time. There will always be that group of fear mongering parents that demand "safety" fpr their children. Granted, I could also see that by the spring semester, many of those polices will be gone as well. But I am preparing myself to be at school wearing a needless mask in a year.

beerad12man said:

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AggieSarah01 said:

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I have already heard of talk of still requiring young children to mask and distance for school in the fall because kids won't be vaccinated yet.

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Kids getting the virus is better for their immunity long term than a vaccine. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I firmly believe that. They honestly shouldn't be getting the vaccine at all if we were going off science.

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Agree. After this pandemic wanes and the risks are minimalized, anyone trying to keep masks b/c it reduces the odds of the flu etc, and I fully expect this to happen in certain places, will be forgetting the fact that it's good for kiddos to get sick. We cannot bubble kids as that would be the worst thing we could do to their immune system. But the issue is that the media has created such a scared environment regarding all of this that I do see some parents trying to push for masks in bad flu seasons and at other times when a virus pops up. My little 5 year old's best friend at day care still goes, but his mom has texted my wife recently to suggest the boys facetime soon. I was surprised but they do not go out still. Granted, they very well may have a reason I am unaware of. But it seems like they are just scared of the virus. So it's been interesting. We go out, go pretty much everywhere and are not really limited in any way. Even considering going to the Round Rock College tourney to watch the Ags later this month as a return trip to Austin. Granted, I also got and spread Covid to my family. So one could say, see, there you go. But the flip side of that is we have had the virus and have immunity at least for 3 months if not more most likely. So we are now probably going to be out and about even more. Our kids do not mask. We do. We don't mind them getting ill as it is good for them to be out and getting germs. That is how their immune systems develop. The fact that a lot of parents still do not realize this is crazy...

the current line is that every additional infection brings up more mutant strains and more chance for vaccine escape

Which is still covered by the vaccine.

Again, the big, ultra liberal cities and even some msm will continue to push for it. Some businesses/compaines might, too. But most areas, including where I am at, will likely be ridding them a lot soon.

Quote:

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When cases and deaths fall off a cliff, people are just going to quietly stop wearing them.

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Yeah, it will be a reaction to on the margin data. Any sort of "18-24 Months" prediction seems silly given we have not been able to predict anything about this pandemic with any degree of accuracy beyond a few weeks.

I think it depends on the individual. Some might not feel comfortable ever going without the mask... personally I'm done with wearing them outside of my job (and I'm not happy about that especially considering I work alone in my own lab for the most part).

Predicting that vaccine availability accelerates meaningfully over the next 8 weeks. Around the beginning of April, mask compliance starts a dramatic drop and by June is ignored by a significant majority.

I think it is more likely at some point in late spring or early summer that they encourage at-risk groups to continue to mask up and maybe even encourage the public at large to mask up but remove the mandates, especially for those who are vaccinated. That goes for fed, state, and local.