I really hope this guy is right.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

I think he's probably close to right. April might be too optimistic, and every optimistic prediction has been wrong so far. But it's absolutely the case that a significant percentage of the country has been infected. It's also the case that the professionals will be the last ones to say that it's over. But if cases and deaths go away, people will return to normal life.

Faucci said today, 2022 before any normalcy, so I'll go with May of 2021

I think Faucci is a good scientist and a good person, but he should have stopped with the daily interviews a long long time ago. The science doesn't move on a 24 hour news cycle, but he's asked to give a new opinion on something every day. As a scientist when you don't know the answer you are supposed to hedge, and then throw something really vague and conservative out there. At this point that's less than helpful.

Depends on your attitude, some people have been out and about for months and some people have the vaccine but feel more comfortable staying in personal quarantine until the government says its over.

Aggie95 said:

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Faucci said today, 2022 before any normalcy, so I'll go with May of 2021

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He's moved this date around so much now, it's hard to take him seriously anymore.

amercer said:

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Sounds like the media might be catching on:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/briefing/ted-cruz-texas-water-iran-nuclear.html

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I'm glad they are catching on, even if they are late.

I've said it from the beginning, if all leaders would have treated the American people as adults they would have garnered a lot more trust. Instead, they told some noble lies in the beginning, and it cost them.

Anyway, I hope the messaging from this point forward improves.

2 weeks after April

Closer to right than wrong, but declaring April as a line in the sand is reminiscent of "this will all be over by Easter".

Two or three months after vaccinations start for the general public and I think we'll largely be there for broad swaths of the country - so say June or July. The denser and bluer a municipality is the further out the goalpost will be...

Now how do I get on the WSJ editorial board?

Bruce Almighty said:

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Aggie95 said:

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Faucci said today, 2022 before any normalcy, so I'll go with May of 2021

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He's moved this date around so much now, it's hard to take him seriously anymore.

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its almost like this is a new thing that no one on earth has seen before with new data coming in all the time.

nah, can't be that.

AggieOO said:

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Bruce Almighty said:

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Aggie95 said:

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Faucci said today, 2022 before any normalcy, so I'll go with May of 2021

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He's moved this date around so much now, it's hard to take him seriously anymore.

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its almost like this is a new thing that no one on earth has seen before with new data coming in all the time.

nah, can't be that.

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It kinda proves my point, doesn't it?

guess it depends on what point you were making. If you were simply saying, you can't put any stock into dates b/c data is constantly changing, then yes. But the post came across as you can't take him seriously b/c he doesn't know what he's talking about.

Perhaps it was my misinterpretation.

AggieOO said:

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guess it depends on what point you were making. If you were simply saying, you can't put any stock into dates b/c data is constantly changing, then yes. But the post came across as you can't take him seriously b/c he doesn't know what he's talking about.

Perhaps it was my misinterpretation.

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I agree that you can't predict the date of anything, but Fauci has gone on record that he lied several times and has contradicted himself many times. No masks, N95 and surgical masks work, any mask material works, two or three masks might be better, there is no evidence that two masks are better, what about pantyhose with a mask.

I don't take anything he says seriously at this point.

Quote:

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Closer to right than wrong, but declaring April as a line in the sand is reminiscent of "this will all be over by Easter".

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Except that we have had almost a year's worth of immunity through spread and now also have a vaccine.

oragator said:

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He is a respected scientist, though not a virologist. Hope he is right, but I think he is missing a basic point of human behavior.
We are getting to relative herd immunity among those who are living a relative normal life and aren't scared of the virus. There is a big population that has severely curtailed their activities and have stayed healthy but are vulnerable, many of whom aren't in the early vaccination phases, and when they come out of their caves we are back to square one. And 70 percent is the low end estimate, I have seen it as high as 90. April seems optimistic unless we started mandating only one dose or don't inoculate those that have had it.

Hope he is right though.

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No.

WE are on square seven or eight, collectively.

THEY (the recluses you reference) are on square one.

oragator said:

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By square one I am say if there is an outbreak because we assume herd immunity too early, everything gets shut down again, even if the numbers aren't what they are now.
And according to the CDC, as of November, only 15 percent of Americans had been exposed, so even if that's doubled in the last few months, there's a large reservoir out there to still be hit.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/covid-2020-11-27/card/vNkshCuxwSGLw7zkSx4z

And yeah, maybe the CDC is wrong too, guess we will all see. I am not dogmatic on any POV with it, but his voice is a relative lone one, so those should not be dismissed but always be looked at more critically. And if he is right, then good news for all of us. I certainly want him to be, just seems overly optimistic.

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This is wrong. The November CDC estimates were far higher than that. They estimated 75-115 million people had been infected, with a best guess of 94mm IIRC

I think it's close to being over in Texas at least. Almost everyone you know will have gotten out by Sunday and stood in a line for groceries or went inside a packed restaurant. People that have been getting their groceries and food by Doordash, now they'll see in the next week or so that they didn't drop dead as feared.

Aust Ag said:

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I think it's close to being over in Texas at least. Almost everyone you know will have gotten out by Sunday and stood in a line for groceries or went inside a packed restaurant. People that have been getting their groceries and food by Doordash, now they'll see in the next week or so that they didn't drop dead as feared.

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You know it's possible to think that it's not a good idea to be a carrier of the virus especially around those close to you and also simultaneously not believe you'll drop dead. This reductio ad absurdum bull**** is pathetic, but it seems to be the only way half of you are capable of talking about the subject. Just a reminder we've had Texags posters die drom this disease.

However, yes the pandemic is likely over. The only thing that could change that is if a variation proves to bypass all immunity and still cause equally bad health outcomes. I have seen no evidence of that, so we should be in the clear by May/June. It will just end up costing 600,000+ American lives, terrible economic damage and thankfully we have a vaccine to make the situation end without a worse outcome. People should stop trying to minimize the significance of that.

Gordo14 said:

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Just a reminder we've had Texags posters die drom this disease.

It will just end up costing 600,000+ American lives, terrible economic damage and thankfully we have a vaccine to make the situation end without a worse outcome. People should stop trying to minimize the significance of that.

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You know what else people have died from on TexAgs? Car wrecks, surgery complications, suicide, heart disease, and cancer.

Over the course of the 600,000 you quoted, there will be another 3.5m deaths from other causes.

Now when do we get to burn these stupid face masks?

ReloadAg said:

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Now when do we get to burn these stupid face masks?

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Literally whenever you want. If you're waiting for the government to give you the green light then never.