Yes
Pandemic over by April?
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Last: 4 yr ago by buffalo chip
I honestly do not know. If we are, it's time. Now, if there is a chance that we can still fill hospitals back up than maybe not, but that point that hospitals should be safe regardless of any uptick in positive cases is coming if not already here. Once enough people are vaccinated along with those who have had it, the hospitals will be safe. Keeping things limited at that point is, well, pointless.harge57 said:I agree, but are we not already past this point?Capitol Ag said:
It all comes down to the question of how we as a society will define what "over" means. As we approach this point, the debate will soon begin to rage, I have no doubt. Is over when the hospitals are no longer overwhelmed? Is over when there is very little chance of catching the virus. Is the main thing we are supposed to be concerned about the potential is "saving 1 life" that could die if we spread the virus even if hospitals are fine? The virus will still be around. There will be people who can catch it who didn't get the vaccine.
My views: It should only be about the hospitals. Once we know they cannot be overwhelmed, than it all opens and all mandates cease.
But we know others will disagree.
We passed this point on April 21, 2020. That is the day Harris County demobilized its temporary hospital. That action has spoken louder than the words of any politician.harge57 said:I agree, but are we not already past this point?Capitol Ag said:
It all comes down to the question of how we as a society will define what "over" means. As we approach this point, the debate will soon begin to rage, I have no doubt. Is over when the hospitals are no longer overwhelmed? Is over when there is very little chance of catching the virus. Is the main thing we are supposed to be concerned about the potential is "saving 1 life" that could die if we spread the virus even if hospitals are fine? The virus will still be around. There will be people who can catch it who didn't get the vaccine.
My views: It should only be about the hospitals. Once we know they cannot be overwhelmed, than it all opens and all mandates cease.
But we know others will disagree.
#CertifiedSIP
love it!Bruce Almighty said:AggieOO said:its almost like this is a new thing that no one on earth has seen before with new data coming in all the time.Bruce Almighty said:Aggie95 said:
Faucci said today, 2022 before any normalcy, so I'll go with May of 2021
He's moved this date around so much now, it's hard to take him seriously anymore.
nah, can't be that.
It kinda proves my point, doesn't it?
Looks like cases have flattened out. Hopefully this is just a blip and not a sign that another spike is coming form the new variants.
With high percentages of nursing home and really old people vaccinated we shouldn't see another spike in deaths in either case. But case numbers are still the thing most tied to restrictions, so they need to keep falling.
With high percentages of nursing home and really old people vaccinated we shouldn't see another spike in deaths in either case. But case numbers are still the thing most tied to restrictions, so they need to keep falling.
How could a drop in cases be a sign that a spike is coming?
amercer said:
Looks like cases have flattened out. Hopefully this is just a blip and not a sign that another spike is coming form the new variants.
With high percentages of nursing home and really old people vaccinated we shouldn't see another spike in deaths in either case. But case numbers are still the thing most tied to restrictions, so they need to keep falling.
23 states have dropped 10% or more in the past week
GAC06 said:
How could a drop in cases be a sign that a spike is coming?
Cases have stopped dropping.
Sorry if that was unclear.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20210224&instance_id=27471&nl=the-morning®i_id=121922527&segment_id=52302&te=1&user_id=64338002fc175daffe9fc689cbbc747e
amercer said:GAC06 said:
How could a drop in cases be a sign that a spike is coming?
Cases have stopped dropping.
Sorry if that was unclear.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20210224&instance_id=27471&nl=the-morning®i_id=121922527&segment_id=52302&te=1&user_id=64338002fc175daffe9fc689cbbc747e
I suspect part of this is related to a reporting/testing delay imposed by the nasty weather last week.
Could be. Two or three weeks data is a lot better than one week.
According to one medical researcher, the term "herd immunity" really doesn't apply to human populations. It comes from veterinary science for herds of animals on farms that are kept isolated from other herds so that there is little or no intermixing. That doesn't happen much with humans. Instead of having an isolated herd of maybe 100 or 200 people, we end up with a global "herd" of billions of people.
I think that the researcher was the one who said that the only way to achieve something like herd immunity among humans on any disease is by the pretty much universal use of vaccine. Look at measles, for example. Without a measles vaccine, measles would be endemic throughout the country.
I think that the researcher was the one who said that the only way to achieve something like herd immunity among humans on any disease is by the pretty much universal use of vaccine. Look at measles, for example. Without a measles vaccine, measles would be endemic throughout the country.
Why did my response to this get deleted? It was a fair retort.AggieOO said:its almost like this is a new thing that no one on earth has seen before with new data coming in all the time.Bruce Almighty said:Aggie95 said:
Faucci said today, 2022 before any normalcy, so I'll go with May of 2021
He's moved this date around so much now, it's hard to take him seriously anymore.
nah, can't be that.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
So good. Can this guy be in charge next go-around?
Was going to post this as well. I echo TC's thoughts. Put ZDogg in charge next time.ttuhscaggie said:
The number 1 thought I had from day 1, that stil holds true to this day: Limiting and/or closing of outdoor activities was absolute insanity. He covers that perfectly.
Exactly. Plus the entire approach of what we can't do instead of focusing on what we can. Even Fauci this past week was focusing on masking after vaccination, what needs to stay closed and how we still need to stay home. And the best part? Many states already have opened theaters, indoor dining etc. The very things he seemed to think are all closed. He needs to acknowledge the fact that they are not closed everywhere and how we can also live in a world where, once vaccinated, we can socialize and get out of the house. The "stay home and don't socialize" message just did not work. And honestly, it added to a surge from the holidays b/c everyone just took it underground.beerad12man said:
The number 1 thought I had from day 1, that stil holds true to this day: Limiting and/or closing of outdoor activities was absolute insanity. He covers hat perfectly.
It was refreshing to learn that you were allowed to remove your masks in your seats outside at the Round Rock Tournament. B/c masks won't help outside and are completely unnecessary.
Finally, ZDogg's idea that healthcare doesn't want to acknowledge how effective the vaccine is b/c they like having the authority and ability to be listened to. If the pandemic ends "too soon" what will they do now? So true. And he isn't trying to say that it's malicious. It's just human nature. People drop everything to listen to what you say. The moment this is declared 'over", people won't listen anymore. And further, the message of masking can turn to the flu or colds. B/c, even if you are vaccinated from the flu, you "might" still be a carrier. "What then if you cross paths with at risk individuals?" they are already asking in some circles. It's insanity.
Totally agree. Public policy surrounding covid-19 has been a complete disaster that failed to acknowledge human nature and needs.beerad12man said:
The number 1 thought I had from day 1, that stil holds true to this day: Limiting and/or closing of outdoor activities was absolute insanity. He covers that perfectly.
His comparison to safe sex education was spot on. World leaders have been advocating an abstinence approach to covid-19 which isn't realistic, especially when there isn't even a moral code or stigma to avoid socializing (vs. sex). Instead public policy was to create a stigma surrounding socializing equivalent to sex, which is even worse.
No instances of spread outdoors, even at super bowl celebrations or in sports leagues. Yet people still wear masks alone outside in the sun on the opposite side of the street, only to take them off when they get to a restaurant with 25% dining indoors. Why do they do that? Because of public policy.
Public health is one part science, one part politics, and one part psychology. Putting aside the fact that some European soccer matches were identified as super spreader events, you can't possibly hope to get people not to have their friends over to their houses if you are saying that packed stadiums and music festivals are ok. And small groups meeting/being indoors have probably driven 99% of the spread.
Anyone who wants friends over to their house isn't making that decision based on whether sporting events are happening.
Socializing is such an important part of human health. One could even argue that risk of deaths from covid is nullified by the risks of loneliness like depression, suicide, etc. And the need to insinuate those who do gather are selfish and insensitive only makes matters so much worse. I do not suggest one purposefully spread the virus but it really is not the responsibility of the individual to "limit the spread" if they don't even know that they are sick. Heck, even if they have a scratchy throat. In the end, some in society put the burden of spread on individuals unfairly like never before. To think that this strategy would work is foolhardy at best. At worst, it actually created an atmosphere where people began to dare others to try to tell them to stop socializing and start masking. It's human nature. If your greatest sin in life is that you attended parties and visited homes of your friends and family, went on vacations and attended events, well, rest easy. You are no monster. Just a regular human being.beerad12man said:
Anyone who wants friends over to their house isn't making that decision based on whether sporting events are happening.
The pandemic is over in north America.
Some people will still die of covid-19 related complications, especially where vaccine distribution is poor (NY/Cali/Michigan), but it's no longer a pandemic by any tangible definition.
Some people will still die of covid-19 related complications, especially where vaccine distribution is poor (NY/Cali/Michigan), but it's no longer a pandemic by any tangible definition.
amercer said:
Public health is one part science, one part politics, and one part psychology. Putting aside the fact that some European soccer matches were identified as super spreader events, you can't possibly hope to get people not to have their friends over to their houses if you are saying that packed stadiums and music festivals are ok. And small groups meeting/being indoors have probably driven 99% of the spread.
But the point is if you are truthful with people and tell them what they can do instead of trying to "ban" Thanksgiving or Christmas, you'd get a lot more people following that advice. Instead, saying don't see loved ones drives more people to do the opposite of what you intended, and keep quite about it.
That's the point.
Beat40 said:amercer said:
Public health is one part science, one part politics, and one part psychology. Putting aside the fact that some European soccer matches were identified as super spreader events, you can't possibly hope to get people not to have their friends over to their houses if you are saying that packed stadiums and music festivals are ok. And small groups meeting/being indoors have probably driven 99% of the spread.
But the point is if you are truthful with people and tell them what they can do instead of trying to "ban" Thanksgiving or Christmas, you'd get a lot more people following that advice.
So I'm going to disagree with you on that one. If we have learned one thing at all in the last year it's that people don't follow advice on what to do. This includes the people who were most in favor of the restrictions as well. People don't understand science, or statistics, or risk.
The problem is that people (even ones who aren't super compliant themselves) want someone to do "something". That's just human nature. So the reality is that politicians will always do "something" whether it's helpful or not.
beerad12man said:
Anyone who wants friends over to their house isn't making that decision based on whether sporting events are happening.
Oh yeah it's a really scary virus. It's so bad that you can have 50,000 people at the bears game but I can't have ten people over to watch it in my basement????
I think we're close and I think we should live our lives as normal as we can, but this is wrong. There is a pretty clear definition of a pandemic and we're still in it. One should be able to acknowledge that and realize that much of what we're doing is stupid.nortex97 said:
The pandemic is over in north America.
Some people will still die of covid-19 related complications, especially where vaccine distribution is poor (NY/Cali/Michigan), but it's no longer a pandemic by any tangible definition.
I'm just saying there isn't a single person I know who bases their decision off of that. Maybe it's because my cirlce is the same? I don't know, but I haven't witnessed anyone who thinks that way. Most who are doing it, are doing it regardless of what is happening in other public settings.
Especially after a year. Those that want to have company, came around to doing so months ago. I'm talking memorial day weekend and really haven't looked back.
long before any sporting events were back. Long before any mass gatherings were seen(other than maybe some riots)
Especially after a year. Those that want to have company, came around to doing so months ago. I'm talking memorial day weekend and really haven't looked back.
long before any sporting events were back. Long before any mass gatherings were seen(other than maybe some riots)
That's simply not right. Historically, pandemic has meant global, and also a rate of growth. The Wuhan Flu has if anything weakened significantly over the past 90 days, and has not impacted many regions much (such as SE Asia and Africa). Covid deaths/cases in the USA are not growing, and are not universal now to the population.ORAggieFan said:I think we're close and I think we should live our lives as normal as we can, but this is wrong. There is a pretty clear definition of a pandemic and we're still in it. One should be able to acknowledge that and realize that much of what we're doing is stupid.nortex97 said:
The pandemic is over in north America.
Some people will still die of covid-19 related complications, especially where vaccine distribution is poor (NY/Cali/Michigan), but it's no longer a pandemic by any tangible definition.
The pandemic phase in north America is largely over as our most vulnerable populations have attained vaccination status and/or will in the next 30 days concomitant with the annual end of ILI season (coronaviruses are included in this seasonal event).
Agreed that much of what 'we' are doing is stupid, however.
I "ripped" my band aid off last April. In May, we took the kiddos on day trips around TX. By June we were flying to NC to the beach for a week. July through August Were out and about and never looked back. Or neighbors started to gather in May. We never wore masks. outside at first but we all have young kids so things moved inside fast.beerad12man said:
I'm just saying there isn't a single person I know who bases their decision off of that. Maybe it's because my cirlce is the same? I don't know, but I haven't witnessed anyone who thinks that way. Most who are doing it, are doing it regardless of what is happening in other public settings.
Especially after a year. Those that want to have company, came around to doing so months ago. I'm talking memorial day weekend and really haven't looked back.
long before any sporting events were back. Long before any mass gatherings were seen(other than maybe some riots)
We were talking about this this morning at work. Once the band aid is ripped off, people become much more comfortable with gathering. Granted, some never had a band aid to begin with. But for many, by now, they are way past the baby steps regarding getting out and about during this pandemic. I've been to sporting events, movie theaters and all kinds of social events. I mask in most cases but let's be real. The masks do come off over time too. Even amongst the biggest mask supporters.
One fact remains though. Almost every thing we did was with our children in mind. It's one thing for a person to tell others to "just stay home" when they do not have little ones. But kids NEED to be out doing things. Not to sound crass or insensitive but their being able to get out and visit new places, play with friends and just "be kids" is worth all other consequences it could produce regarding the virus. Kids need playgrounds, interaction, open schools, vacations and all of it. I feel zero guilt about the things I have chosen to do. I hope no one suffered b/c of it but I wouldn't change a thing I've done either.
According to the Bloomberg vaccine tracker, every one of those states has more efficiently distributed the vaccine than the state of Texas (materially).nortex97 said:
The pandemic is over in north America.
Some people will still die of covid-19 related complications, especially where vaccine distribution is poor (NY/Cali/Michigan), but it's no longer a pandemic by any tangible definition.
&, only Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands have a lower percentage distribution than Texas (a couple of states are close to, but none are behind, Texas)...
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