Coronavirus in Israel: What do we know about the 143 hospitalized people?

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samurai_science
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8:26p, 7/21/21
https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-in-israel-what-do-we-know-about-the-143-hospitalized-people-674508


Some 143 Israelis were hospitalized with COVID-19 as of Wednesday at 12 p.m., according to the Health Ministry. Fifty-eight percent of them were vaccinated, 39% were not and 3% were partially vaccinated, meaning they had taken one dose or a full week had not passed since their second shot.
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samurai_science
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8:28p, 7/21/21
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israel-shifts-to-moderna-vaccine-as-minister-warns-delta-won-t-disappear-soon-1.10017431



Israel Shifts to Moderna Vaccine as Minister Warns Delta COVID 'Won't Disappear Soon'
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Another Doug
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In reply to samurai_science • 8:40p, 7/21/21
AG
samurai_texan said:
https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-in-israel-what-do-we-know-about-the-143-hospitalized-people-674508


Some 143 Israelis were hospitalized with COVID-19 as of Wednesday at 12 p.m., according to the Health Ministry. Fifty-eight percent of them were vaccinated, 39% were not and 3% were partially vaccinated, meaning they had taken one dose or a full week had not passed since their second shot.
There are 5x more vaccinated then unvaccinated in Isreal.

So according to your article
~40% of the cases come from the unvaccinated 15% of the population .
75% of the patients on a vent comes from the unvaccinated 15%


samurai_texan is a left wing pro-vaxxer comfirmed


I agree with samurai_texan, everyone go out and get the vaccine.

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Teslag
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8:44p, 7/21/21
AG
I don't think I'll ever understand people rooting for these vaccines to fail
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aggiemike02
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8:49p, 7/21/21
AG
Hey look. You're back again this evening!
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Aggie95
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9:18p, 7/21/21
AG
So about 143 people out of 8.7m are hospitalized? About 80 of those are vaccinated....omg, the horror.
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BadMoonRisin
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In reply to Aggie95 • 12:01a, 7/22/21
AG
Aggie95 said:
So about 143 people out of 8.7m are hospitalized? About 80 of those are vaccinated....omg, the horror.
Cmon, man. The percentages are so much more scary if you leave out the actual numbers.
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74OA
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4:17a, 7/22/21
AG
The Israel Health Ministry's data analysis has produced some new estimates about the effectiveness of Pfizer vaccines.
  • In protecting against infection, Pfizer vaccines are 95% effective for the alpha variant but only 64% effective for the delta variant.
  • In preventing symptomatic COVID-19 cases, Pfizer vaccines are 97% effective for the alpha variant but only 64% effective for the delta variant.
  • In preventing hospitalization and serious disease, Pfizer vaccines are 97.5% effective for the alpha variant and still 93% effective for the delta variant.

ISRAEL
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96ags
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In reply to Teslag • 7:17a, 7/22/21
AG
Salute The Marines said:
I don't think I'll ever understand people rooting for these vaccines to fail
Same way I feel about the crowd rooting for the virus to win.
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andrago94
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7:42a, 7/22/21
AG
I posted the links to the official data in the other Israel thread. If you assume all people in hospital are over 20 years old, you get 59% cases and 81% vaccinated. This calculates to the vaccine having an effectiveness of 66%. If you assume the total population vaccination rate of 57%, then the effectiveness of vaccine is 0%. All data indicates the Pfizer vaccine is failing.
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RafterAg223
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In reply to andrago94 • 8:54a, 7/22/21
AG
andrago94 said:
I posted the links to the official data in the other Israel thread. If you assume all people in hospital are over 20 years old, you get 59% cases and 81% vaccinated. This calculates to the vaccine having an effectiveness of 66%. If you assume the total population vaccination rate of 57%, then the effectiveness of vaccine is 0%. All data indicates the Pfizer vaccine is failing.


And many of their own scientists over there are very skeptical of this data and believe the sampling is flawed. This data flies in the face of very fresh data out of the UK.
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PJYoung
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9:03a, 7/22/21
AG
Israel covid data is a math trap.




Quote:
To make this point really obvious, look at the scenario where 100% of the population is vaccinated -- there will be way fewer hospitalizations, but 100% of those few hospitalizations will be vaccinated people. So you can't only look at the percentage.

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andrago94
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In reply to PJYoung • 9:29a, 7/22/21
AG
Yes, the calculation I am doing is the same done in the vaccine trials. It accounts for the number of people vaccinated and the number of cases. Weekly cases are in the thousands and hospitalizations are in the hundreds, so no limited data issues. The data is very clear, Pfizer vaccine has failed.
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Zobel
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In reply to andrago94 • 9:35a, 7/22/21
AG
There's a lot of variance by age cohort - you'd need population and percent vaccinated for each cohort to get a clear picture, I think.
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RafterAg223
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In reply to Zobel • 9:43a, 7/22/21
AG
The poster trying to scare everyone here and on the other thread has also definitively stated on past threads that COVID vaccines are directly responsible for killing people. I think these kinds of posts are irresponsible and really do nothing to help the current discussion.
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KingofHazor
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9:44a, 7/22/21
The best analogy I read on here that helps me understand the data is an analogy to seatbelts.

The overwhelming number of people who die or are injured in car wrecks are wearing seat belts. Does that prove that seatbelts don't work or that they actually contribute to death and injuries?

No, the statistics are due to two facts:

1. The overwhelming number of people in cars are wearing seat belts.
2. Seat belts are not 100% effective at preventing death or injuries.

A deeper dig into the data would show that a much higher percentage of people not wearing seatbelts are killed or injured in car wrecks than those wearing seatbelts.
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andrago94
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In reply to RafterAg223 • 10:23a, 7/22/21
AG
Posting the actual numbers from the government website is irresponsible?? But telling people that there is nothing to worry about when clearly the vaccines have failed is responsible??
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RafterAg223
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In reply to andrago94 • 10:24a, 7/22/21
AG
andrago94 said:
Posting the actual numbers from the government website is irresponsible?? But telling people that there is nothing to worry about when clearly the vaccines have failed is responsible??


Clearly??? According to who, you????
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andrago94
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In reply to KingofHazor • 10:26a, 7/22/21
AG
I your analogy, the current numbers in Israel are showing that car wrecks are killing the same proportion of people wearing seatbelts as not wearing seatbelts . A responsible response would be to understand why the seatbelts aren't working, not to claim they are despite the evidence.
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Zobel
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In reply to andrago94 • 10:27a, 7/22/21
AG
There are many confounding factors you're not considering. This isn't the same as the numbers from an RCT where there are follow-ups with all participants.
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andrago94
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In reply to RafterAg223 • 10:27a, 7/22/21
AG
I posted the data and used a standard calculation method used by everyone. It's not according to me, you can duplicate my results. This is what unbiased science is about, it's not about me.
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RafterAg223
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In reply to andrago94 • 10:50a, 7/22/21
AG
andrago94 said:
I posted the data and used a standard calculation method used by everyone. It's not according to me, you can duplicate my results. This is what unbiased science is about, it's not about me.
So why have top Israeli physicians and scientists come out to say late yesterday that looking at the data in the way you did can be very risky and lead to a highly skewed outcome? Even a senior physician at Tel Aviv's largest medical center is saying that the definition of severe illness has become very misleading. Another senior infectious disease doctor in Israel states that what is seen in their hospitals and elsewhere in no way squares with what you claim as bible, and that is a declaration of total vaccine failure.
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KingofHazor
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In reply to andrago94 • 10:55a, 7/22/21
Quote:
the current numbers in Israel are showing that car wrecks are killing the same proportion of people wearing seatbelts as not wearing seatbelts .
That's the crux of the issue. I'm not seeing that in the links to the data that you posted. Can you be more specific where those proportions are shown?
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Knucklesammich
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In reply to andrago94 • 11:09a, 7/22/21
andrago94 said:
I your analogy, the current numbers in Israel are showing that car wrecks are killing the same proportion of people wearing seatbelts as not wearing seatbelts . A responsible response would be to understand why the seatbelts aren't working, not to claim they are despite the evidence.


I think the better analogy is that people wearing seatbelts get into more wrecks than those not wearing seatbelts. Unfortunately more people die who aren't wearing seatbelts.

This so because the overwhelming number of drivers wear seatbelts. Seatbelts don't prevent wrecks they prevent deaths. I look at a vaccine as helping prevent infection but also significantly lowering risk of serious breakthrough disease.

Now we have seen multiple threads from docs who are seeing the same thing in their hospitals. Of course most of those docs have now been run off so we can't really ask them what they are seeing but that's another topic I suppose.
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andrago94
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In reply to RafterAg223 • 5:27p, 7/22/21
AG
Here is an article from Haaretz today. They included all ages and not just 20+. That adds 3,000,000 plus people who are only 4% vaccinated to the mix. Brings the effectiveness up to 40% against positive test. I get the same number when looking at the government data. They quoted numbers for a whole month. If you look at last two weeks, it's about 15% effective. I get same numbers on hospitalization as well when including the large young population, but we know the young rarely get very sick, so this makes the numbers look better. The message is starting to go mainstream.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israel-reports-effectiveness-of-covid-vaccine-against-infection-drops-to-40-percent-1.10021477

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Zobel
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In reply to andrago94 • 5:34p, 7/22/21
AG
Do you agree that these numbers are not directly comparable to an RCT with follow up to a controlled population? That there's an unknown element of ascertainment bias involved?
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RafterAg223
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In reply to andrago94 • 5:56p, 7/22/21
AG
andrago94 said:
Here is an article from Haaretz today. They included all ages and not just 20+. That adds 3,000,000 plus people who are only 4% vaccinated to the mix. Brings the effectiveness up to 40% against positive test. I get the same number when looking at the government data. They quoted numbers for a whole month. If you look at last two weeks, it's about 15% effective. I get same numbers on hospitalization as well when including the large young population, but we know the young rarely get very sick, so this makes the numbers look better. The message is starting to go mainstream.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israel-reports-effectiveness-of-covid-vaccine-against-infection-drops-to-40-percent-1.10021477

I already read the latest article from haaretz. They also admit the data is likely skewed due to the hotspot areas and cohorts that were sampled. Furthermore, the health ministry still maintains the vaccine is 90% effective at preventing serious illness and hospitalization. The vaccine is clearly so useless that the Israeli PM is still urging people to take it.
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7:43a, 7/23/21
Drip99
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In reply to [removed post] • 8:02a, 7/23/21
AG
SoupNazi2001 said:
"However, the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing severe coronavirus disease in Israel is currently estimated at 91.4 percent, and in preventing COVID-19 hospitalization,at 88 percent."

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planoaggie123
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In reply to Drip99 • 9:08a, 7/23/21
AG
JesusQuintana said:

"However, the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing severe coronavirus disease in Israel is currently estimated at 91.4 percent, and in preventing COVID-19 hospitalization,at 88 percent."


That is key and what we needed. Limit severe cases.

People will get it and will get sick. Stay home when sick. Go back when not. No need for "negative COVID test" once symptoms are done. No need to cancel games when someone gets sick / infected. Just have them go home if symptomatic much like you would want when someone has a cold.

We have made this WAAAAYYYYYYYYYY too complicated.
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Zobel
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2:05p, 7/23/21
AG
This paper is kind of interesting regarding Israel. Assuming we're about 4 months out of broad vaccination, and we're now at 40% efficacy, the graph in figure 1A suggests the Pfizer original efficacy vs delta was 60-70%.

With this recent paper showing a ~3-fold reduction in neutralization levels between alpha and delta for Pfizer, we can sort of gut check that using figure 1C. If Pfizer was originally 95% vs alpha, and has a 3-fold reduction with delta, that would suggest initial efficacy of around 80%.



Figure 3 shows something similar except has estimates for mild and severe. If original Pfizer efficacy vs delta was around 70-80% we'd still expect efficacy against severe infection at ~120 days to be around 90%, which is what we're seeing.




neat

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KingofHazor
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In reply to Zobel • 2:28p, 7/23/21
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andrago94
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In reply to Drip99 • 12:59a, 7/24/21
AG
I'm not sure where they are getting the 90% effective against hospitalization. Based on the government's own published data it's about 40% right now. Would be nice if all news organizations would publish the data and calculations when they quote a statistic.

If you go to the links I provided, you will see about 70% of admissions over the last month in the 20+ age group were vaccinated. The population in same age group is 81% vaccinated. Running the standard vaccine effectiveness calculation on those percentages results in an effectiveness of 40% against hospitalization.

I can understand that there is probably a strong bit of politics weighing on what they disclose with so many people having such a strong vested personal interest in the success of the vaccines, but at some point they are going to have to face reality.

Bennett's move today against the unvaccinated in Israel makes no sense. He should be focused on booster shots, especially amongst those over 60 who are the most vulnerable. The US should also be looking ahead knowing that we trailed Israel by about 2 months on vaccine rollout. Preparations should be in the works to roll out a booster program, again starting with those over 60.
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Drip99
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In reply to andrago94 • 7:46a, 7/24/21
AG
andrago94 said:
I'm not sure where they are getting the 90% effective against hospitalization. Based on the government's own published data it's about 40% right now. Would be nice if all news organizations would publish the data and calculations when they quote a statistic.

If you go to the links I provided, you will see about 70% of admissions over the last month in the 20+ age group were vaccinated. The population in same age group is 81% vaccinated. Running the standard vaccine effectiveness calculation on those percentages results in an effectiveness of 40% against hospitalization.

I can understand that there is probably a strong bit of politics weighing on what they disclose with so many people having such a strong vested personal interest in the success of the vaccines, but at some point they are going to have to face reality.

Bennett's move today against the unvaccinated in Israel makes no sense. He should be focused on booster shots, especially amongst those over 60 who are the most vulnerable. The US should also be looking ahead knowing that we trailed Israel by about 2 months on vaccine rollout. Preparations should be in the works to roll out a booster program, again starting with those over 60.


What is the total # of admissions over the last month? The numbers you provided suggested that 200 total people in a country of 9 million have been hospitalized over the last two weeks. ~150 of those were fully vaccinated and in the 20+ age group. 150 out 4-5 million (don't know the number) is a very small amount of folks experiencing serious illness. What is the makeup of this group (old age, comorbidities, etc)? How does this compare to hospitalizations over a bad flu season? There's a lot of info needed to come out to say the vaccine is just not working.
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94chem
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In reply to 96ags • 8:56a, 7/24/21
96ags said:
Salute The Marines said:
I don't think I'll ever understand people rooting for these vaccines to fail
Same way I feel about the crowd rooting for the virus to win.


Why did you repeat what he said?
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
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