Elko should keep gambling in Vegas in ways that increase A&M's odds

Every year, millions of visitors go to Las Vegas, intent on gambling.

The hope here is that Texas A&M football coach Mike Elko will, too.

That’s not to imply Elko should be seen doubling down at the blackjack tables or trying to get six the “hard way” next week when A&M arrives to face USC in the Las Vegas Bowl.

On second thought, maybe it does. Too often for A&M, getting six the “hard way” means scoring a touchdown rather than two field goals.

Presumably, that’s why Elko has opted to “go for it” on fourth down so frequently. It’s a gamble which hasn’t paid off enough for the Aggies.

Elko has attempted 17 fourth-down conversions. The Aggies have converted just seven times. That’s a 41.2 percent success rate. That’s bad.

But the rate was even worse in the last three SEC games vs. South Carolina, Auburn and Texas. The Aggies converted just 25 percent (2-of-8) on fourth. That’s resulted in three losses — and A&M landing in Vegas instead of the College Football Playoff.

Twice, the Aggies tried to convert fourth-and-1 from their own 34-yard line vs. South Carolina. Both times, they failed.

“It was fourth-and-half-a-yard for both of them that we went for,” Elko said then. “We’re going to do that. That’s something we’re going to do. We haven’t really been in that situation before. We have to be able to get half a yard.”

But the Aggies couldn’t.

Twice against Texas, they were stopped when needing a yard or less to convert on fourth down. All four times, the Aggies opted for inside runs — once with Marcel Reed on a quarterback sneak and three times with Amari Daniels on an inside run.

Elko should learn his lesson. And that lesson is to gamble like Dan Campbell.

As you saw last Thursday, Campbell — the beloved Aggie who coaches the Detroit Lions — opted to go for it on fourth down five times in a 34-31 victory over Green Bay.

Twice, the Lions converted 2-yard passes on fourth down for touchdowns. A quarterback sneak on fourth-and-1 at midfield extended a drive for a touchdown. A fourth-down run by David Montgomery set up a game-winning field goal with no time remaining.

Campbell gambled. But he took calculated risks and looked for advantageous matchups. The Lions capitalized on running back Jahmyr Gibbs’ superior athleticism to beat a linebacker on an angle route for an easy touchdown.

Another touchdown pass went to seldom-used receiver Tim Patrick.

On the clinching run, Montgomery ran behind right tackle Penei Sewell — arguably the Lions’ best offensive lineman — and tight ends Shane Zylstra and Sam LaPorta, who was brought in motion.

The point is that Detroit was only predictable in that Campbell would go for it on fourth down. The play-calling wasn’t predictable.

Elko has said that for A&M to get to championship level, the Aggies must be able to get a yard when needed most.

But that doesn’t have to be with a predictable inside run.

Try Terry Bussey on a jet sweep. Maybe run Rueben Owens from the Wildcat. Give the football to a 300-pound lineman. Throw high to 6-foot-6 receiver Noah Thomas. Use motion. Make the defense guess what play is coming.

Elko should stay aggressive. He should gamble in Las Vegas. Just find ways to increase the odds in A&M’s favor.

Then, getting six maybe won’t be so hard.