with comparisons to different years going on figured it'd be interesting just to look at year over year with 2024 -> 2025 since there was a lot of talk regarding this....

the following is only domestic numbers...too difficult at least on the site i use to look at international the same way they don't add it up for some reason....

for calendar gross earnings YTD
2025: $6,052,719,609
2024: $5,858,987,728

currently up 3.3% YTD

for in year release earnings YTD
2025: $5,556,107,770
2024: $5,659,127,647

currently down -1.8% YTD

you can break this down another way as well.....

total calendar gross w/ movie releases and avg per movie
2025: $6,056,671,741 / 473 releases / $12,804,802 avg per movie
2024: $8,571,249,443 / 677 releases / $12,660,634 avg per movie

avg per movie up 1.1%

total in year release gross w/ movie releases and avg per movie
2025: $5,556,107,770 / 389 releases / $14,283,053 avg per movie
2024: $8,610,925,704 / 574 releases / $15,001,612 avg per movie

avg per movie down -4.8%

so which do you use??? in year release or calendar gross? truthfully this is really only super impactful if there's a major release that happens towards the end of the year (we'll get to that for this year) and the difference the two for 2024 gross domestic revenues is only 0.46% so not very impactful one way or the other for 2024....

what's interesting is to look at the top 10 films for 2024 and what their average domestic revenue was....the top 10 films for that year were:

inside out 2 653m
D&W 637m
wicked 433m
moana 2 404m
despicable me 4 361m
beetlejuice beetlejuice 294m
dune pt 2 282m
twisters 268m
godzilla kong 196
kung panda 4 194

that gives us a rough estimated (but pretty close) average of 372.2 million for your top 10 films of 2024

so let's compare that to what's came out so far for 2025 and it's average top 10:

minecraft 424m
lilo & stitch 424m
superman 353m
jurrasic world 339m
sinners 279m
fan 4 270m
training dragon 263m
cap america 4 200m
mission impossible retcon 197m
thunderbolts 190m

that gives us a rough estimated (but pretty close) average of 293.9 million for your top 10 films of 2024

so what remaining potential heavy hitters remain on the release schedule for 2025 that could crack the top 10 for 2025? to me it would appear to be:

tron: ares October 10th...domestic tron legacy did 172 million back in 2010 so i wouldn't count on it

Wicked 2 November 21st...one of the top films for 2024 and should be a top 3 film for 2025 but will be competing with Zootopia 2 the following weekend...

Zootopia 2 November 26th...original did 341 million so this will definitely crack top 10 and likely take the #3 or #4 spot for 2025....not sure if it'll beat it's original earnings or not (original came out 9 years ago...)

avatar fire 'n ash December 19th...original did 785m domestic and sequel did 684m domestic...so even if it does another 100 million less than the sequel it should still take the #1 spot for 2025...but there's a BIG BUT on this one and seems like a lot of the remaining of 2025 is riding on this release...

with avatar getting released on December 19th....depending on what method you use to determine domestic gross revenue for the year ("calendar gross" or "in year release") it'll likely affect if you count 2025 as a win over 2024.....

also (and yes i counted) there's approximately 150 movies still waiting to be released for 2025...but that includes even the small films and re-releases as well and according to this site for sources:

https://www.firstshowing.net/schedule2025/#sep

so with 150 movies remaining let's go back to the data i listed with the per movie average and assume that per movie will not change for the remainder of 2025....when you add up the additional 150 movies remaining that gives us approximately....

APPROX FINAL total calendar gross w/ movie releases and avg per movie
2025: $7,977,391,646 / 623 releases / $12,804,802 avg per movie
2024: $8,571,249,443 / 677 releases / $12,660,634 avg per movie

APPROX FINAL total in year release gross w/ movie releases and avg per movie
2025: $7,698,565,567 / 539 releases / $14,283,053 avg per movie
2024: $8,610,925,704 / 574 releases / $15,001,612 avg per movie

conclusion....

game is only just starting the 3rd quarter...still plenty of time left...but it would seem the 2025 year is not on track to surpass 2024. it's safe to assume there's going to be films remaining for this year that will surprise and do better than expected....also i wouldn't be surprised if the website i used to count remaining film releases don't have all the information and there's potentially more coming but it should be including all MAJOR theatrical releases which will be the big money makers...

but by my estimates, i'd expect 2025 in both categories to perform higher than the numbers i listed just above this as the approximate finish for 2025, with both getting over 8 billion....but i do not expect 2025 to surpass 2024 for domestic box office revenue....








or i could be a complete knucklehead which is also possible....imma go eat now.....

If you pulled out Inside Out 2 and Deadpool Wolverine, which are absolutely outliers, you'd see a little different story.

Inside Out 2 was one of the very few animated movies that adults with no kids went to see. Deadpool Wolverine had ridiculous repeat business that I'd still bet against today. Those are anomalies that don't happen most years.

By the time you put Zootopia 2, Wicked 2, and Avatar in, (the last 2 I think will be south of their previous installments but north of $350M), it's going to look very similar to 2023 or 2024.

20ag07 said:

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If you pulled out Inside Out 2 and Deadpool Wolverine, which are absolutely outliers, you'd see a little different story.

Inside Out 2 was one of the very few animated movies that adults with no kids went to see. Deadpool Wolverine had ridiculous repeat business that I'd still bet against today. Those are anomalies that don't happen most years.

By the time you put Zootopia 2, Wicked 2, and Avatar in, (the last 2 I think will be south of their previous installments but north of $350M), it's going to look very similar to 2023 or 2024.

---

whats the purpose of removing inside out 2 and deadpool 3? that would make 2024 appear even worse....

every year there's a few films that make big bucks.....money wise there's nothing special about inside out 2 or deadpool 3 to remove them from statistics.....

2023 had barbie (636 million) and super mario bros (574 million)
2022 had top gun maverick (718 million)
2021/2020 covid so skip those
2019 had engame (858 million) and lion king (543 million)
2018 had black panther (700 million), infinity war (679 million), and incredibles 2 (609 million)

there's always a few each year that kick butt and likely 2025 has a few still coming....

and still taking all that into account it just appears that while it could be close 2025 just isn't going to quick reach 2024....

but we'll see...it's pretty much riding on 3 movies which isn't good but those are also promising box office return films as it appears....

Because the "overall" or "average" number that is skewed by an anomaly doesn't matter. You can't predict when a movie is gonna soar to anything past $400M.

Nobody had Barbie doing that, Super Mario Bros doing that, Maverick doing that, etc.

When you look at and say "well we didn't hit last year's numbers by $200M on $8B, because we didn't have that one anomaly", you shrug your shoulders and say OK.

Tom Cruise saved 2023. Then bombed 2024 and 2025.

You have to take the couple of anomalies out, and then look at the rest. And you're answer becomes "that's largely on par."

whelp you're welcome to bust out some math to to back up some predictions yourself....

imma stand by what i posted that the total gross domestic for 2025 for either yearly and calendar gross will be over 8 billion but will be less than 2024.

I am not an anime guy and had never even heard of demon slayer but I'm here to see long walk and the place is jam packed with multiple sold out showings.

Guess this thing is popular.

As expected, #DemonSlayerInfinityCastle opens $70m+ this weekend. https://t.co/0uUS1ftx89

— EmpireCity Box Office (@EmpireCityBO) September 13, 2025

What is happening at the box office is exactly what we have been saying for years. When the volume returns and there are no more covid or streaming or strike related delays, you will see normalcy return. $150m weekend with a wide diverse slate the second week of September. pic.twitter.com/hSv5M0UrQo

— EmpireCity Box Office (@EmpireCityBO) September 13, 2025

Saw this today. Really enjoyed it.

Not an anime guy, but my sister is, so I binged the show in prep for today.

I might be an anime guy now.

Nothing on that list seems like it could be a surprise except The Smashing Machine. If that movie is as good as Dwayne's performance in the trailers hints at that could be a nice surprise word-of-mouth movie kinda like Puss and Boots 2 was….itll be interesting to see…

Wicked 2 will most likely beat the originals box office run I'm guessing.

Tron Ares ain't gonna do much.

Agreed on all accounts.

And yeah, Tron: Ares somehow comes out next week, yet there is next to no hype. On one hand I guess that's not surprising considering the Jared Leto factor (and the random cast all around), but I still didn't expect it to feel this dead.

These things are so worthless.

It tries to tell me Now You See Me 3 has the "most interest" in November?

Clearly whoever they called to "gauge interest" was limited.

(And I like Now You See Me, and will see the 3rd one.)

But if Wicked 2 doesn't do 4x more than Now You See Me 3…whoever "gauged interest" should be fired.

If you try to tell me that Now You See Me 3 opens to more than $20M, and Wicked 2 opens to less than $80M…

Never doubt JC.

BOX OFFICE: #Zootopia2 issss a hit w/ an estimated $156M 5-day opening (domestic) and $556M (globally)..
- That’s the biggest global opening of 2025.
- That’s the 2nd biggest Thanksgiving holiday haul (domestic) behind only Moana 2.
- In total for all films, it’s the 3rd biggest… pic.twitter.com/8AGYUID7wM

— Erik Davis (@ErikDavis) November 30, 2025

‘ZOOTOPIA 2’ has opened with $556M worldwide

The film has made cinema history as the 4th biggest global opening of all time

Read our review: https://t.co/mEILIdoyKU pic.twitter.com/ppGUMYCQBu

— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) November 30, 2025