jokershady said:

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fist Star Wars movie

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jokershady said:

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Less than a month away from the fist Star Wars movie to be released in 7 years and the following films are beating Mandalorian and Grogu in both awareness and interest….

The Advil Wears Prada 2
Mortal Kombat 2
Scary Movie 6 (comes out ~ 2 weeks later)
Toy Story 5 (comes out ~ 4 weeks later)

Yeeeeeeeesh……thinking the projections I've been seeing are becoming more and more precise…..

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A thought that I've seen posted and I think has some validity is that the 22nd is the start of a holiday weekend, there are no other kids/family movies opening that weekend, and there are no other big openings the week before or after. In other words, while presales are indicating a low opening the big question is will walk-ups from families looking to get out of the house be strong enough to save it?

Disney has to desperately be hoping so right now.

I have no idea if one source is more valid than the other, but BoxOfficePro suddenly revised its Mando/Grogu weekend projection up significantly from $71 m to $90-$100m, not including the Memorial Day Monday. Seems a bit unbelievable so late in the game, but would definitely help the franchise if true.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-star-wars-the-mandalorian-and-grogu-blasts-off-to-potential-100m-opening/

There's no world where Mando hits $100M opening weekend.

Or should I say, no galaxy.

great scott....these typos and auto-corrections are happening too much...

that was dang hilarious though!

So it's been an interesting start for the domestic box office so far for the start of 2026! And a somewhat good interesting one!

For starters, I'm doing this to look at 1 main thing…and that is how theaters are performing and is the domestic box office actually showing the potential for growth for 2026. For this I do not care if a movie was profitable or not…it's only about theater monies growth.

And to keep things even, I'm only going to look at "in year releases" and "in season releases." Honestly there's not much difference between the in year/in season and calendar date releases but I kinda like seeing how films contribute towards the season or year they were actually released in without the benefit of carryover….meaning for this, all the money from Avatar stayed in 2025 since that's when it was released….

WINTER
Winter is the first day after New Year's week or weekend through the Thursday before the first Friday in March

2025 gross: $707,149,277
2026 gross: $765,304,045 (growth of 8.2%)

2025 top film: Capt America 4 / $200,500,001
2026 top film: Scream 7 / $121,928,451

2025 movie average: $8,418,443 / 84 films released
2026 movie average: $8,229,075 / 93 films released

So Winter had a pretty good start considering the top film of the season was 80 million below the top film for 2025 and yet the season still showed 8.2% growth YOY. Yes it helps that there were more films released than the prior season, but considering the difference between the number 1 grossing films it's still impressive. Also take a look at the top 5 from each season:

2026:
Scream 7 = 121.9 m
GOAT = 103.3 m
Wuthering Heights = 84 m
Send Help = 64.7 m
Iron Lung = 40.8 m (pretty cool for Markiplier)

2025:
Cap 4 = 200.5 m
Dog Man = 97.8 m
One of Them Days = 50 m
Paddington in Peru = 45.8 m
The Monkey = 39.7 m

Other than the #1 movie for Winter, all the top films for 2026 beat the top films for 2025. Pretty awesome.

Here's the big problem…..This kinda means nothing. Yes this Winter was a great improvement over 2025 but it's like throwing a chair off the Titanic…this season is ALWAYS the lowest in terms of domestic box office as all the other seasons are expected to do anywhere from 1-4 billion….but it's a start….

Another problem….When you compare this to the prior 5 years BEFORE covid…this is still way under for what was happening domestically….to average everything out and compare it to now, here you go:

2026 winter box office: 765.3 m
2015 2019 avg: 1.176 b

2026 winter film avg: 8.2 m
2015 2019 avg: 11.8 m

2026 winter # films released: 93
2015 2019 avg: 100

So we've mostly caught up (at least for this year with this season) on the number of films released prior to Covid, but we're still not even close with matching the old Winter box office. It'll be interesting to see how much growth there is in Spring.

And then……Summer…….(in-season box office for summer posted back to back years of losses…this is an important year for the summer)

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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There's no world where Mando hits $100M opening weekend.

Or should I say, no galaxy.

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agreed. I read the article and it gives no reason why all of a sudden this film should be tracking to make 20-30 million higher than recent predictions….

Insane positive momentum for theatrical. 4 year labor deals, every studio with strong windows, full robust release schedule, @AmazonMGMStudio starting to roll and @ParamountPics gearing up. Even @netflix now in the full wide release theatrical business!! What a turnaround. pic.twitter.com/wo6wKaAgcx

— EmpireCity Box Office (@EmpireCityBO) May 3, 2026

Theatrical is absolutely ripping this weekend locally, domestically and especially globally. @michaelmovie going to possibly finish even higher than estimates and #TheDevilWearsPrada2 with a massive $233m WW opening. This is only the start. 2026 going to blast past $10b+. pic.twitter.com/Z29NDf9Ne6

— EmpireCity Box Office (@EmpireCityBO) May 3, 2026

I saw somewhere that Disney is expecting Mando to open worse than Solo.

Season 3 and Boba Fett really effed this whole thing up, didn't they? (Ive seen neither)

Sure seems like it's gonna be a hell of a summer at the BO.

rhutton125 said:

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I saw somewhere that Disney is expecting Mando to open worse than Solo.

Season 3 and Boba Fett really effed this whole thing up, didn't they? (Ive seen neither)

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Solo weekend only did 84.4 million
Including Memorial Day it did 103 million
That was in 2018

Not adjusting for inflation depending on where you read man-grok is expecting to do somewhere around the same….but adjust for inflation it would be worse than Solo's performance if they match dollar to dollar….

Personally I think it performs a little under Solo just going by dollar comparisons….

“You cannot quote me a single line from Aquaman” is one of the funniest things anyone has ever said https://t.co/xAsnR9pGms

— oscar (@_onthewayjay) May 17, 2026

$AMC WSJ just dropped a piece on the theatrical recovery: ‘IMAX Has a Front-Row Seat to the Box Office Recovery’. Studios are shifting back to big-screen releases, with premium formats like IMAX driving the payoff.
Key highlights from the article:
• Hollywood is refocusing on… https://t.co/iV3iL9veCd

— Ruth Milena Machado (@milenamachado71) May 17, 2026

Quote:

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$AMC WSJ just dropped a piece on the theatrical recovery: 'IMAX Has a Front-Row Seat to the Box Office Recovery'. Studios are shifting back to big-screen releases, with premium formats like IMAX driving the payoff.
Key highlights from the article:
- Hollywood is refocusing on theatrical distribution after years of streaming-first.
- Premium large-format (PLF) screens (especially IMAX) are key they punch well above their weight, capturing an outsized share of opening weekends for blockbusters.
- IMAX (only ~1% of screens) is seeing record demand; filmmakers are booking premium slots far in advance.
- This 'premiumization' trend treats theaters as a high-end experience consumers deem worth leaving the couch for.
For AMC shareholders, this is bullish. AMC Theatres dominates premium screens as seen below:
- Largest IMAX operator in the U.S. with ~225 IMAX screens (and expanding via deals to add 12 new + upgrade 68 more to IMAX with Laser, targeting the world's largest IMAX with Laser circuit at ~180+). http://alphaspread.com
- Also leads with 181 Dolby Cinema, 47 PRIME, 168+ XL, thousands of Laser-equipped screens, plus ScreenX/4DX. No other operator has more premium large formats (PLF). http://finance.yahoo.com
Premium formats are a huge revenue driver for AMC:
- In recent openings (e.g., Michael), PLF screens delivered ~48% of opening weekend revenues despite being <10% of total screens. http://finance.yahoo.com
- They command higher ticket prices, fill first, and boost per-patron spending. This helped AMC post strong Q1 2026 results: $1.045B revenue (+21% YoY), best Q1 Adjusted EBITDA since 2019. http://stocktitan.net
AMC A-List benefits (great for driving frequent visits and loyalty):
- Up to 4 movies per week with no blackout dates.
- Free online reservations (skip lines), size upgrades on popcorn/drinks, and strong integration with Stubs rewards.
- Premium formats (IMAX, Dolby, etc.) allowed perfect for the big-screen experience WSJ is highlighting.
- Tiered pricing makes it accessible; heavy users save big vs. single tickets. http://amctheatres.com
The theatrical experience is seeing rebound, largely driven by better content offerings and consumers perceiving value in the Premium Large Formats the and AMC's premium (PLF) leadership positions it perfectly to capture more of the upside.

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Quote:

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~48% of opening weekend revenues despite being <10% of total screens.

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Now all the debate regarding Disney and doomsday losing imax screens makes a bit more sense….

With the domestic overperformances of OBSESSION ($32M) and MICHAEL ($27.1M), this year’s Memorial Day weekend grossed ~$222M — $30M above what was expected just weeks ago.

And with SPIDER-MAN and AVENGERS (the biggest movies of the year) still to come, 2026 is tracking to be the… pic.twitter.com/7RqwK93GGo

— Global Box Office (@GlobalBoxOffice) May 26, 2026

If everyone thinks the box office is crazy right now, wait until this weekend is over and then wait until you see where @toystory 5 might be headed for @Pixar and @Disney on a crazy double holiday weekend in a few weeks. The 2026 box office run is only starting.... pic.twitter.com/1N1IMDuINi

— EmpireCity Box Office (@EmpireCityBO) May 28, 2026

EXCLUSIVE: Disney/Pixar’s ‘Toy Story 5’ is bound to have a friend with moviegoers.

Three-week tracking for the Andrew Standon and McKenna Harris co-directed animated feature is at $150M, which if those numbers stick will be a record opening for the franchise ahead of ‘Toy Story… pic.twitter.com/0mU6zm6oOh

— Deadline (@DEADLINE) May 28, 2026

things are starting off a lot better than 2025 that's for sure...

but the summer will be the most telling and we've barely started...last years performance for the summer was 3.45 billion (in-season releases) which is more than the performance for this years winter and spring combined, which is normal and expected...

just saying we've got to get through the WHOLE summer of 2026 before we will actually have a decent idea of how the 2026 box office will fair up...

on paper, this summer release schedule should definitely do higher than 3.45 billion...if it were to do under that would be 3 consecutive summers in a row with a drop and that would REALLY not be good....but if it could top 2023 (the year of barbinheimer) of 4 billion that would be pretty incredible to see....but to do that going to need really strong performances from: spiderman & toy story 5 along with some extra hits from disclosure day, minions, and the odyssey...

remaining top summer films (tell me if im missing some or aiming high on some)

MAY
backrooms - should be decent opening at least

JUNE
scary movie - scream 7 was a surprise so this could be too...but parady movies haven't had the best nostalgia...

masters of the universe - it should at least do better than ManGrok and if good have some legs too

disclosure day - should be this years oppenheimer or better

toy story 5 - man this one has me wondering...it'll do well don't get me wrong...but the 4th one wasn't a slam dunk like 1, 2, or 3 regarding fan reception so curious if it'll do around 415 million like 4 did....or if it'll be less

supergirl - lol...this'll dud

JULY
minions & monsters - likely to do quite well

moana - hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....honestly i have no idea...not gonna bomb but i dont know if we should be expecting lilo and stitch either...

the odyssey - maybe i should go read the thread to see how this film will do.....nah.....nevermind....let's just say 50% chance it makes a billion dollars worldwide and 50% chance it makes not a billion dollars worldwide...

spiderman BND - everyone loves friendly neighborhood spooder-man

AUGUST
paw patrol dino movie - is this really big with kids? hard to measure on something this "G" rated for me...

the end of oak street - could be an awesome surprise...

personally at this point id be SHOCKED (like really shocked) if summer of 2026 posted another drop in domestic box office...so the goal shouldn't be to top last year i think that's already done....the question is can it top 2023...so here are the top 10 summer films from 2023 and their domestic box office....can it be done?

1. barbie: 636m
2. across the spiderverse: 381m
3. guardians galaxy 3: 359m
4. oppenheimer: 330m
5. little mermaid: 298m
6. sound of freedom: 184m
7. dial of destiny: 174m
8. MI: dead reconing 1: 172m
9. transformers rise of beasts: 157m
10. elemental: 154m

I am no hollywood expert by any means, but IMO no way does it get close to 2023. I just don't see the movies you listed for this summer rivaling that 2023 summer list in viewer interest.

IMAX and LION have been good stocks to own lately. Like the above post from TCTTS... movies are killing it and the revenue is showing!

Summer 2013 box office was $4,754,082,341, the highest of all time.

Summer 2023 box office was $4,039,647,939, the highest since 2019/ the pandemic.

Summer 2026 box office is currently at $850,095,271, through four weekends, with 14 weekends left to go.

So, the question is, is there at least $3,189,552,668 (the current different between summer 2023 and summer 2026) worth of box office left this year between the juggernauts...

- Toy Story 5
- Minions & Monsters
- The Odyssey
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day

... the likely-to-could-be hits...

- Backrooms
- Scary Movie
- Disclosure Day
- Supergirl
- Evil Dead Burn
- Moana
- The End of Oak Street
- Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie

... and everything else?

Personally, at this rate, I don't see how summer 2026 doesn't beat summer 2023. Hell, summer 2026 even has a shot - albeit a long one - at beating summer 2013. I'm not at all saying that will happen, but the fact that it's technically even in the cards is insane.

I mean, we're looking at potentially FOUR more $1B grossers in that first tier. Do I think they'll all hit $1B? Probably not. Two or three probably fall short and settle in that $700-800M range. But if, say, two or three *do* do more than $1B each, it could come close to evening out.

Then you look at that next tier and you're telling me there's not another $800M or so there collectively, if not far more?

Along with all the other titles releasing, this is going to be a MASSIVE summer any way you slice it.

TCTTS said:

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Summer 2013 box office was $4,754,082,341, the highest of all time.

Summer 2023 box office was $4,039,647,939, the highest since 2019/ the pandemic.

Summer 2026 box office is currently at $850,095,271, through four weekends, with 14 weekends left to go.

So, the question is, is there at least $3,189,552,668 (the current different between summer 2023 and summer 2026) worth of box office left this year between the juggernauts...

- Toy Story 5
- Minions & Monsters
- The Odyssey
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day

... the likely-to-could-be hits...

- Backrooms
- Scary Movie
- Disclosure Day
- Supergirl
- Evil Dead Burn
- Moana
- The End of Oak Street
- Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie

... and everything else?

Personally, at this rate, I don't see how summer 2026 doesn't beat summer 2023. Hell, summer 2026 even has a shot - albeit a long one - at beating summer 2013. I'm not at all saying that will happen, but the fact that it's technically even in the cards is insane.

I mean, we're looking at potentially FOUR more $1B grossers in that first tier. Do I think they'll all hit $1B? Probably not. Two or three probably fall short and settle in that $700-800M range. But if, say, two or three *do* do more than $1B each, it could come close to evening out.

Then you look at that next tier and you're telling me there's not another $800M or so there collectively, if not far more?

Along with all the other titles releasing, this is going to be a MASSIVE summer any way you slice it.

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It's definitely in play to surpass 2023 but I don't think it's as sure a thing just yet.

For starters, the 1B marks your referencing I'm sure are global numbers, not domestic.

Let's assume for those top 4 you listed we get 1.6B total for domestic BO...that might look like:

- Toy Story 5 - 400m
- Minions & Monsters - 400m
- The Odyssey - 300m
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day - 500m

And I'm being conservative...I do expect the domestic total amongst those 4 films be higher...so let's say those 4 total a domestic BO between 1.6Band 1.8B (I do feel 1.8B is a hard ceiling for those 4).

Using your numbers (which is Calendar release) that leaves an additional ~ 1.4B to 1.6B remaining for all the other summer films to make up. Definitely possible. But I also expect Supergirl to be a dud. The End of Oak Street while could be interesting is at the tail end of Summer. And Scary Movie could be a one hit-weekend wonder like Scream 7 and have no legs.

Oddly enough, I think the big determining factor in this is going to be Moana...if that is good enough with audiences to even come remotely close to what happened with Lilo & Stitch then I think 2023 will get crushed by 2026...

But if all other films perform as expected and Moana's a domestic turd then I think it'll come up 100 - 200 million short of 2023.

So we'll see. It'll be fun to watch and analyze to see how it all goes. Honestly though I'm just happy theaters are doing better so far.

***** You're right. I did global not domestic. Brain fart.

You might be completely right, I'm just a normal 50 yr old with no special insight into movie box office. But IMO....

* Supergirl will disappoint (likely everyone's opinion at this point).
* Backrooms will do good for a low-budget horror but is still only projected to do $40-50 mil opening weekend and will of course drop from there.
* The last Evil Dead movie did $147mil global, which is good for an Evil Dead movie, but not helping all that much towards breaking $4billion for the summer.
* I don't think The Odyssey breaks $700-800 mil, still very very good, yes. But I do think that the version he's portraying will result in a "quick" dropoff - the Nolan-philes will see it the openimg weekend and likely a second time, but the average person won't insist on seeing it in the theater.
* I don't think The End of Oak Street does gangbusters. In fact I think it relatively disappoints.
* Toy Story - I gotta think that even the diehard Toy Story fans are thinking at this point, "Really? REALLY? You're gonna sell us the same story AGAIN!? I'll just wait until it hits Disney+."

Toy Story 5 is going to do Inside Out 2 numbers, likely breaking $600 million.

And to get the BO up, there doesn't have to be a bunch of $400-$500 movies. In fact 2013 had 1 movie over $400 millon, then 1 more over $300 million, then a bunch of movies from $100 - $300 million. And thats the ticket. And I think this summer is set up pretty good to have several movies at or above $150-$200 million, Supergirl being one of them. But even movies like The Invitation and Young George Washington can hit and lift the overall numbers. Will it break 2013? Probably not, but I think there is a chance when I look at that slate vs the slate this summer.

In other news...ManGrok could only stay in 1st place at the box office for 5 days....

Obsession took #1 for Wednesday with $5.6m and ManGrok dropped to #2 with 4.2m.

Holy crap Disney! I mean....holy crap!!!!

Obsession is in less than 2/3 of the theaters as ManGrok...it's in its 2nd week...its got a budget of under 1 million...and it's beating the first Star Wars film in 7 years....

Shame! Shame! Shame!



Actually it is kinda hilarious at this point but still....

Domestically the last Toy Story did less than $500mil in the U.S. and Canada, but you're saying this one will do $600mil?

Just curious why do you call it ManGrok?

Cause I'm not typing that whole friggin title and i constantly misspell / mistype words anyway

jokershady said:

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Cause I'm not typing that whole friggin title and i constantly misspell / mistype words anyway

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Oh, I thought it was some sort of political commentary.

This one looks better than 4 and just has a different vibe. I think if it's good it will make Pixar sequel money, which Incredibles 2 and Inside Out 2 showed us.

Exactly. The third one was so perfect that the fourth one felt unnecessary/like overkill. But now it's kind of the opposite. Plus, this one has more of a "legacy sequel" vibe (in a good way), the iPad villain/toy is such a great idea, etc. Not to mention, as quoted above, its opening weekend is tracking higher than any opening weekend in the entire franchise. It's going to be huge.

Gotcha. I'll take your word for it. Honestly, I haven't even checked out the trailer.