Sunday estimates are out and have Avatar 2 at $36.5 million for Sunday after a gross of $44.5 million on Saturday.

That's $134 million weekend for the big boy which already has it 13th for the year (sorry Buzz)
The Numbers has it as making $300 million internationally over the weekend, but individual country totals don't seem to reflect that. I think it just doesn't have the full country by country breakdown available yet. .

So, let's talk some further numbers.

• It's the 32nd-biggest sequel weekend ever. #1 is Avengers Endgame.
• It's 40th for biggest opening weekend overall, right behind The Batman, and the actual numbers might push it ahead once we get to Monday or Tuesday.
• It's the seventh largest weekend of any kind for December, everything ahead of it is Star Wars stuff or No Way Home.

It should get pretty high up the list of three-day Christmas holiday gross which is defined as any movie that was out on a weekend where Christmas was either Friday, Saturday or Sunday. The leader on that board is The Force Awakens with a staggering $149 million - no other movie has ever cracked $100m for those three days ; No Way Home is second with $84.5 million and the original Avatar is third with $75.6 million back in 2009.

Black Panther 2 made $5.4 million in Avatar's wake. It's up to 31st all time now, passing Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom today. It's a little less than $3 million behind the Lion King for 30th, and should have enough business through this holiday week to climb up to around 27th.

Here's some good benchmarks for Way of Water going forward.

Monday:
Maverick: $33.8, -7.8% (Memorial Day)
Avatar: $16.3, -33.8%
Wakanda Forever: $11.1M, -72.8%

Second weekend:
Maverick: $90M, -29%
Avatar: $75M, -1.8%
Wakanda Forever: $66M, -63%

Third weekend:
Avatar: $68M, -9.4%
Maverick: $51M, -42%

I think tomorrow's report of today's numbers will be an important early sign of the legs on Way of Water.

Based on the numbers above, I would think it needs to be doing somewhere in the $18-23M range.

Comparing it to Wakanda Forever is selling Avatar way short. Wakanda Forever is at least $30-$40 million below the low point of what it was expected to make based on its opening weekend.

Avatar 2 needs to be compared solely to Top 10 movies of all time based on its lead in, sequel status, and pedigree. Anything that falls short of the top 10 domestic is a disappointment for it.

It's just there to be the low bar, and nothing beyond the second weekend. Thought it would be a good reference for how it compares to the typical front-loaded MCU movie.

I'm surprised that many people are still going to Black Panther, it's been out for a while now. I figure anyone who had interest in seeing it would have by now.

TXAG 05 said:

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I'm surprised that many people are still going to Black Panther, it's been out for a while now. I figure anyone who had interest in seeing it would have by now.

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Repeat business drove BP 1 and will probably is doing the same thing here. It appears to be one of the more emotionally powerful of the Marvel oferings.

Found a pretty interesting list of movies that made more money in their second weekend than in their first weekend in wide release since were talking about Avatar and Avatar 2's longer range hauls.

Percentage wise, the biggest is the 1994 version of LIttle Women which made $2.4 million
on its opening weekend and $6.77 million the second week.

Others include, in the format of first weekend / second weekend in terms of largest percentage increase:

Grumpy Old Men: $3.8m / $7.5m
War Horse: $7.5m / $14.4m
A Christmas Story $2.07m/$3.93m
Out of Africa: $3.6m/$6.5m
The Greatest Showman $8.8m/$15.5m

That isn't all of them. Others include Scream, The Little Mermaid, Kindergarten Cop, and Galaxy Quest.

The biggest of them in terms of money made, is the remake of Jumanji from a few years back.
It made $36.1m its first weekend and $50m its second.

Titanic also pulled off this fear, going from $28.6m to $35.5m.
Sing went from $35.2m to $42.9m
Night at the Museum from $30.4m to $30.8m
Mary Poppins Returns $25.5m to $28.3m
The Blind Side $34.1m to $40.1m
Castaway $28.8m to $30.9m

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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I think tomorrow's report of today's numbers will be an important early sign of the legs on Way of Water.

Based on the numbers above, I would think it needs to be doing somewhere in the $18-23M range.

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$16M Monday, not particularly great.

Travel day/ many schools are still in session til midweek?

Avatar 1 made $16.3m on its first Monday, which was 12/21/09, after making $77 million on the weekend, That was about a 33% drop from Sunday to Monday.

Sunday to Monday for the sequel is about a 55% drop.

Some contemporaries:
The Force Awakens dropped 33.8% on its first Monday in December, also the 21st.
Titanic dropped 40% on its first Monday in December, the 22nd
The Last Jedi is more in line with Avatar 2, it dropped 58% on its first Monday in December.
The Rise of Skywalker, dropped 27% on its first Monday, December 23rd. That's probably a bit of an outlier because it was a day where lots more people would be off.

sburg2007 said:

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Travel day/ many schools are still in session til midweek?

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Could be a contributor. I thought most were already off though.

Certainly not panic time for Disney/Cameron quite yet though. Gotta hold strong this week and definitely through weekend 2.

The thing that Avatar 2 is fighting is the generation of young people are not experiencing this sort of digital technology for the first time. They see it in most video games they play. And while this is certainly superior to those offerings, it's not something they can interact with, it's 2 hrs and 40 minutes of just sitting. I think that might be a factor in a smaller box office.

Another good point.

I mean video games were already huge in 2009, but you compare the graphics at that time (Wii/PS3) vs now, and it's night and day.

I think the main issue for that generation though, is the fact that it has to win them over for the first time. Anyone under the age of about 18 has only ever seen that movie on TV, if at all, so this story has to pull in a lot of kids/teens who've likely never even seen the first.

But that said, it seems like most people are really enjoying it, so I think whatever the box office is for Way of Water, is has the potential to really grab hold of that generation even more with the upcoming sequels.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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I think tomorrow's report of today's numbers will be an important early sign of the legs on Way of Water.

Based on the numbers above, I would think it needs to be doing somewhere in the $18-23M range.

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$16M Monday, not particularly great.

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I think this is weird timing this year. Christmas I bet will be huge for this movie.

$16.2 million is the official Monday estimate from the Numbers, moving Avatar 2 to $150 million over 4 days.

It's the 46th largest domestic Monday of all time. The Monday record is Black Panther on President's Day 2018 with a stunning $40.15 million.

It's tied for 27th for fastest to $150 million (4 days). It's trailing Maverick by about $10 million in that category, but Maverick opened on Memorial Day weekend.

$150 million domestic in 4 days is on par with Breaking Dawn 2, Deadpool, and PIrates of the Caribbean Part 3.

Original Avatar took 8 days to reach $150 million, but from 12/25-1/1 it made $148 million more.

From Indie Wire

Shares in AMC dropped 8.26 percent on Monday, when Cinemark sunk 10.30 percent (CNK has rallied back a few points in after-hours trading). IMAX closed the first trading day after the "Avatar 2" opening weekend down 5.76 percent. Disney, the studio behind "Avatar: The Way of Water," declined 4.77 percent to hit a low point not seen since 2014.

$497M globally after Monday, meaning it'll be crossing half a billion today.

This probably passes the billion dollar mark by the end of next weekend, if not early next week.

The Porkchop Express said:

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From Indie Wire

Shares in AMC dropped 8.26 percent on Monday, when Cinemark sunk 10.30 percent (CNK has rallied back a few points in after-hours trading). IMAX closed the first trading day after the "Avatar 2" opening weekend down 5.76 percent. Disney, the studio behind "Avatar: The Way of Water," declined 4.77 percent to hit a low point not seen since 2014.

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Beyond Covid, Theatre chains also have to look in the mirror because they refused to enforce no text and talking. Except the drafthouse I guess. It's cheaper and a better experience watching at home now

Either it doesn't have the legs of original Avatar or this is the case and it's still too far from Christmas and people are still working.

$17M+ Tuesday, an $1M increase from Monday.

For comparison on the same day:
Avatar - $16M
Maverick - $15.8M
Morbius - $2.7M

Personally, my kids aren't out of school until today. One is home sick with the flu. Then it will be a packed rest of the week with wrapping up shopping and get togethers. We all want to see it but it won't be until after Christmas that we'll have time.

You have failed as a father when you're putting illnesses and family gatherings above going to see a movie.

I let my kids stay up until midnight on a school night to go see Frozen 2 early. And arranged for costumes for the two of them to be Ana and Elsa, with my self as Kristoff (wife refused to participate). And stayed in character as Kristoff at the ticket window and the snackbar and throughout the movie.

Here's something kind of amazing - Way of Water was JC's first ever $100M+ opening.

It's a Wonderful Life was re-released last Friday and made a salty $734,000 on its first day. almost twice what Black Adam made that day.

$18.3 million on Tuesday for Way of Water gets it to $168.57 million in 5 days. It has done the impossible, catching and passing Black Adam. It's the 24th best Tuesday in domestic history, a bit ahead of Avatar's 2nd Tuesday (Dec 29, 2009) of $18,290,268. The all-time leader is Spider-Man: Far From Home with $39,255,628 on July 2, 2019.

All time Tuesday in December is The Force Awakens with $37,361,729 on December 22, 2015.

$168 million in 5 days puts the sequel 35th for best 5-day opening gross, just ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy and just behind Spider-Man 3 (yikes). Endgame made $427 million in 5 days in 2019.

Among 2022 releasees, the 5-day leaders are:

1. Dr Strange: $213.6 million
2. Wakanda Forever: $205.1 million
3. Maverick: $176.3 million
4. Jurassic World: $172.5 million
5. Love and Thunder: $170.0 million
6. The Way of Water: $168.6 million
7. The Batman: $155.6 million
8. Minions 2: $140.6 million

Quote:

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$18.3 million on Tuesday for Way of Water gets it to $168.57 million in 5 days. It has done the impossible, catching and passing Black Adam.

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$168M also puts it just ahead of Morbius' global cume.

Way of the Water went backwards a bit on Wednesday, making $14.3 million to reach $182.94 million for its 6-day gross. Some of that drop-off was probably due to Puss in Boots: The Last Wish opening in 4,093 theaters, with a pretty solid built-in audience given that the character was introduced 20 years ago and families with kids are a lot more apt for this movie than 3+ hours of Avatar.

The impending winter storm probably will have lighter numbers this week as well.

Avatar 2 is now 9th at the box for 2022, with Sonic the Hedgehog dead to rights at #8 with $190 million. It's up to 263rd all time, right behind the Simpsons Movie and Ocean's 11.

It was the 57th biggest Wednesday at the box office, right behind a $14.4 from Harry Potter 7.1. I'm fairly embarrassed to report that the top 2 Wednesdays ever are Twilight: Eclipse and Transformers 2.

BP2 numbers for Wednesday aren't out yet.

Thru Tuesday, Avatar had made $387 million foreign, which is already 9th on the year.

$609M global with the big holiday weekend coming up.

It'll be interesting to see how Xmas Eve affects the Saturday box office. Sunday and Monday should be huge though.

Also, already passed Thor L&T's international cume of $417M. After Ragnarok, that one really disappointed I would say.

Avatar had about a 1% increase at its box office from Wednesday to Thursday to grossing $14.5 million to reach $197,549,646 in its first 7 days at the box office.

Should be super interesting to see the yin-yang of the bad weather vs basically everyone alive being off work on Friday-Monday

Puss in Boots 2 made $2.9 million on Thursday, dropping off only 9% from its opening of $3.2 million. Expect those numbers to rise the 23rd-26th as well.

The Whitney Houston biopic I Wanna Dance with Somebody made just $730,000 in its preview day at 3,093 theaters with performances starting at 2 p.m.

Wakanda Forever was just shy of $1 million on Thursday with $906,000, also a 1% gain from Wednesday. It has reached $422.6 million, and has surpassed the original Lion King for 30th all time on the domestic list. It will be up to 27th by the end of the holiday weekend as there are a few more movies bunched together between $423m and $426m.

Avatar 2's haul was the 40th best of all time on a non-opening Thursday, just ahead of the $14.466 million that Mavericks hauled in on its first Thursday. The all-time leader on a non-opening Thursday is The Rise of Skywalker on December 26, 2019 with $30.586 million. I have recently become aware that some people did not enjoy this film.

Avatar 2 will cross $200 million on its 8th day which will tie it for the 32nd-fastest trek there with 12 other films. The original Avatar took 10 days to get there. Titanic took 25 days.

At $197 million and change, Avatar 2 is now up to 232nd all time, just ahead of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, but falling short of Happy Feet.

That sucks, hope the first 45 minutes is entertaining. Must be if you're going again.

First 45 minutes were great. I feel like we were just at a MAJOR plot point so I'd like to see what happens.

The 3D is amazing. I expect the plot to be pretty standard (like the first one) but the spectacle is worth the price of admission (at least when the power stays on)

The winter storm is apparently putting a huge damper on Fri/Sat grosses.

Deadline:
20th Century/Disney's Avatar: The Way of Water is pacing 37% ahead of yesterday's revised $14.6M for a $20M Friday, which will put it on track for $83M 4-day, -45% from the pic's first 4 days. Hopefully, the sequel will hit $90M at 4,202 theaters, if business shifts. That will put the pic's 11-day box office at $280.7M.

Avatar 2 made $19.5 million on Friday to reach $217.2 million in 8 days. It rocketed into the top 200 all-time at #189, just short of Alvin and the Chipmunks at #188.

It's day-over-day boost was +33.3% from Thursday. IT is now #8 on the year in domestic box office and has a climb to reach Thor 4 at #7 at $343 million.

The original Avatar made $23.1 million on its 8th day, which was Christmas 2009. It was actually not the #1 movie that day because Sherlock Holmes had just come out and beat it by about $1.6 million. Original Avatar was at $160 million through eight days, but had a monstrous second weekend - about $75 million in 3 days over Christmas.

The $19.5 million was the 60th biggest non-opening Friday in domestic history. The record is $49.3 million set by The Force Awakens on Christmas Day 2015.

Avatar is up to $681 million worldwide through 8 days. That's 8th for the year. 68% of its box office is foreign so far.

Puss in Boots impressed again with $3.8 million. It's made $9.9 million in three days and should do a lot of family business Saturday-Monday, including my family.

Whitney Houston's biopic opened with $2.73 million for Thurs/Friday

Wakanda Forever made another $1 million on Friday to surpass Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest for 29th all time. That's pretty rare air when you get right down to it. The top 30 is comprised of:

• 6 Star Wars movies
• 4 Avenger movies
• 2 Lion Kings (original and 2019 remake)
• 2 Dark Knight movies
• 2 Black Panther movies

Everything else is 1 part of a series or a film that has no sequel/prequel -
No Way Home, Avatar, Maverick, Jurassic World, Incredible 2, Beauty and the Beast, Finding dory, Frozen 2, Shrek 2, ET, Toy Story 4, Captain Marvel, Catching Fire, Dead Man's Chest