The Porkchop Express said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Was looking up showtimes for Babylon today, and out of curiosity checked out the matinee showing of Way of Water in IMAX.

It's about 90% full and even more so than the very first showing I went to on opening day. That's pretty nuts.

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Looking up showtimes for Babylon is pretty nuts! Just walk up to the box office and say you want to see it. They'll dust off the reel and give you an empty theater.

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Yeah, but that's how Paul Reubens was busted watching Altman's The Player.

No surprise another re-up of Avatar's box office. It made $21.2 million Monday, not the previously announced $18.5 million.

That gets it to $446.157 million, and up to 24th all-tie ahead of Shrek 2. It is going to keep tearing through the rankings as there are many movies bunched between where it's at and 13th place all time, which is the newer version of The Lion King at $543.6 million. After that, the hill gets much steeper.

Avatar 2 is now 12th in total international box office at 956.9 million. Only 10 films have made more than $1 billion internationally, so Cameron will soon have 3 of those. The original Avatar is the only one to make more than $2 billion internationally. End game fell short at $1.939 billion international.

Avatar 2 is 13th all-time worldwide at $1.401 billion. It passed Age of Ultron yesterday. Frozen 2 is next at $1.444 billion and Maverick is at $1.487 billion. The current 10th-place worldwide movie is critically-acclaimed, Oscar-winning Furious 7, with $1.514 billion.

Domestically, Wakanda forever should pass Shrek 2 either Tuesday or Wednesday for 25th all time.

So for movies released in 2022, we've gotten Avatar 2 which will wind up somewhere in the top 5-10 domestically all time. Black Panther 2 which will probably get into the low 20s., Dr. Strange is 36th all-time domestic, Jurassic World 3 winds up 51st, Minions 2 is 54th, the Batman is 55th, and Thor 4 takes 65th. A pretty good comeback year from the extended remix of COVID.

also have to shout out the methodical excellent of Puss in Boots 2, which has made between $4.7 million and $6.7 million every day since Christmas. It made $9.9 million on its first three days (Dec 21-23). The Numbers cool graph about projected box based on the first few days had it projected between $24 million and $29 million for Day 13. Instead, it's up above $66 million.

Predictions for Way of Water are currently at $25-30M for its fourth weekend. (Which after how it's constantly been beating expectations, I would expect to finish on the higher end or beyond.)

If that holds it should have no problem holding off M3GAN for the #1 spot for a fourth straight weekend.

Some 4th weekend benchmarks:
Avatar: $50M (-26%)
Top Gun Maverick: $44.M (-14%)
Titanic: $28.7M (-14%)
Rogue One: $22M (-55%)

Titanic is probably the best comparison considering the Cameron legs and it matches the holiday timeframes with the break now over. (Pretty much every weekend record from here on out is held by either Avatar or Titanic and it's unlikely they'll ever be challenged.)

I think it'll settle in around $630M domestically, but if it continues to overperform it could easily pass Titanic to grab the #8 spot all-time. ($659M)

Globally, it's now ~$85M shy of surpassing Maverick as the #1 film of 2022, which will officially happen sometime this week.

Worldwide total is a little harder to predict, but I think $2M is not only possible but maybe even likely at this point. If it hits that, it should move past Force Awakens and Infinity War to grab the #4 all-time spot. (In which case James Cameron would own 3 of the top 4 spots on the all-time worldwide list.)

The downfall of Avatar 2 is coming on January 13, 2023.

The Porkchop Express said:

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The downfall of Avatar 2 is coming on January 13, 2023.

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I cannot open the video but is that when Megan is released? More teenage trash from blumhouse?

batchuser said:

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The Porkchop Express said:

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The downfall of Avatar 2 is coming on January 13, 2023.

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I cannot open the video but is that when Megan is released? More teenage trash from blumhouse?

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No it's a re-imagining of House Party that looks remarkably funny and has LeBron poking fun at himself.

I thought it would be dumb as hell but I laughed multiple times during the trailer.

Here's the non-red band. Definitely NSFW though.

House Party looks surprisingly fun.

As a bonus, #AvatarTheWayOfWater is projected to cross 500M domestic and 1.6B globally at the #BoxOffice on its 4th weekend, probably on SAT JAN 07, what would be 11 days before 2009 #Avatar reached both marks also on the same day, back in JAN 18, 2010. https://t.co/nnbbu9nc3x

— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) January 3, 2023

Obviously this is just a projection, could (and I believe it will) be earlier if #AvatarTheWayOfWater keeps besting NWH legs-wise globally as it has been doing, but could also take longer if it starts losing steam (what I don’t see happening but not impossible at #BoxOffice)
2/2

— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) January 3, 2023

Is Luiz Fernando your alter ego?

#AvatarTheWayOfWater crossed 1B overseas, 1.48B GLOBALLY,after strong 28.3M 3rd TUE overseas!
1.03B intl.cume!
Could beat #NoWayHome’s 1.1B overseas run on FRI already!
1.48B+ at Global #BoxOffice. #TopGunMaverick’s 1.49B falling TODAY as we talk.
Eyeing 2.2B-2.8B Global run.
1/2 pic.twitter.com/AHvTt1J0Hw

— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) January 4, 2023

For the record I think that 2.2-2.8 range is pretty optimistic. I think 2.1-2.5 is more reasonable.

Early reports for Tuesday have Avatar 2 at $10.4 million. Pretty incredible # considering it was the first day back to work/school for most people in the US. It's more than The Force Awakens made on a comparable day - Monday, January 4th, 2016. TFA made $8.02 million that day, although it was also already at $750 million domestic.

No other movie has released its earnings for Tuesday yet, but Avatar 2 has ascended to # 23 all-time domestic at $457 million, blowing past The Dark Knight Rises ($448m) and will pass both Age of Ultron and A New Hope on Wednesday.

Internationally, Avatar 2 is up to 9th all time, breaking the $1 billion mark at $1.025 billion.

Worldwide it is now 12th, passing Frozen 2, and is just $5 milion behind Maverick for 11th.

All-time Domestic Box office totals after 19 days (where Avatar 2 is right now)

The Force Awakens, 2015, $758.2m

Endgame, 2019, $734.2m

No Way Home, 2021, $627.4m

Titanic, 1997, $560.6m

Infinity War, 2018, $558.7m

Jurassic World, 2015, $514.4m

Black Panther. 2018, $512.7m

The Avengers, 2012, $468.2m

Way of Water, 2022, $457.3m

Maverick, 2022, $409.4m

Avatar, 2009, $367.5m

Today:

pic.twitter.com/3t7Dan2EZO

— Scullibundo (@SCULLIBUND0) January 4, 2023

Just read that Harry Potter has been moved out of the top 15 worldwide completely now that Way of Water has passed Deathly Hallows Pt 2.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Just read that Harry Potter has been moved out of the top 15 worldwide completely now that Way of Water has passed Deathly Hallows Pt 2.

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Do you not like Harry Potter?

I'm indifferent. I found it an interesting fact.

Was this the box office thread?

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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I'm indifferent. I found it an interesting fact.

Was this the box office thread?

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It just sounded funny. Like you had finally defeated Harry Potter.

I'll miss you on this thread when Avatar 2 leaves the theater in March 2049.

It was more me being surprised that that franchise is not in the top 15 now with like 8 movies.

I'm sorry your franchise got knocked out.

Well now im confused. Does it mean the franchise cumulative $?

And def not my franchise. Movies are a poor representatuon of the books.

Grabbed this from 4chan. Not my work but figured it was worth posting here.

What Avatar can do from here...

Hyper Bear Case - Rogue One dailies from here on out. This is extremely unlikely unless a brand new pandemic happens tomorrow as Rogue One fell off HARD post-holiday but I'm keeping it anyway for the memories :'). Currently this gets A2 to $542m DOM and $1.76B WW.

Bear Case - No Way Home (minus $200m) dailies from here on out. This comparison held well through days 9-14 but has been blown out the water since the weekend and I expect the gap to only widen from here on out, hence it being a bearish prediction. Currently if A2 were to track this it would get to $630m DOM and $2.04B WW.

Standard Case - Top Gun: Maverick dailies from here on out. It feels weird calling this the standard case, but I think most would agree that the 50:50 for A2 has now moved up to around TGMs domestic gross of $718m. A2 has built up a sizeable lead, but TGMs late legs are monstrous because of the summer holidays so it will be a bigger challenge than the previous two comps. If A2 were to keep the pace from now it would gross $767m DOM and $2.48B WW.

Bull Case - Avatar 1 dailies from here on out. Initially I had this down as the "hyper bull case" because matching A1s dailies seemed preposterous just a few days ago, however it has consistently grossed ~10% more than it for a while now and the trend doesn't seem to be slowing down after that $10.5m Tuesday. Still, grossing over $400m AFTER the holidays is going to be a monumental task. If A2 can keep the pace it would end its run with $850m DOM and $2.76B WW.

I think it falls somewhere between bear and standard but closer to standard. $700MM does seem pretty reasonable at this point. There is no competition in theaters right now.

I agree with that. But not quite sure if it gets to 700, I think it finishes somewhere in the 630-700 range.

#AvatarTheWayOfWater grossed 2.9M at #China’s #BoxOffice on 3rd THU, over 94k screenings, just a -22.7% drop from last THU.
The #Avatar sequel hits a 173.4M cume, with a shot at crossing 200M on SUN already if drops remain under -30% until SUN
$500k in pre-sales for 4th FRI pic.twitter.com/oZiNsq0iK7

— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) January 5, 2023

China

Apparently the only country it's been significantly underperforming in is Japan, due to a movie called Slam Dunk.

$7.25M 3rd WED DOM. $465M Cume. Expecting $40-42M 4th weekend. Will cross $500M on SAT.

$27M OS. $1052M Cume. Crossed $1.5B WW. #AvatarTheWayOfWater pic.twitter.com/NJEdG80xq8

— Jatinder (@meJat32) January 5, 2023

Would be the best non-holiday 3rd Wednesday, and ahead of Maverick, TFA, RO, and Avatar.

Avatar 1 get big numbers in Russia? Guessing that's a nogo for part 2.

James Cameron's Avatar: The Way of Water, as expected has exceeded $1.5B globally with Wednesday's figures included. The running total through yesterday is $1,516.5M, meaning that it has overtaken Top Gun: Maverick as the No. 1 worldwide release of 2022. What's more, it is now the No. 10 biggest movie ever globally.

The 20th Century Studios/Disney sci-fi epic has also in the past day crossed Furious 7 worldwide. Today, it will pass The Avengers to claim the No. 9 spot on the all-time global chart.

Down goes the family!

Slightly exceeded that 7.25M earlier number.

#AvatarTheWayOfWater  had a
7.4M biggest non-holiday 3rd WED ever (#7 overall) at US #BoxOffice.
A -63.7% drop from last WED holiday
vs #NoWayHome’s 4.4M, -78.4%#TopGunMaverick 6.6M, -47%#Avatar  6.9M, -62.6%
464.9M US cume.
All time Top20 TONIGHT!
Eyeing a 670M-870M US run
1/ pic.twitter.com/e6CHLw8gol

— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) January 5, 2023

This is nuts. From Reddit...

Quote:

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James Cameron's last 3 movies have outgrossed the DCEU combined.

So the combined gross of 11 DCEU movies: Man of Steel, BvS, Suicide Squad, WW, JL, Aquaman, Shazam, Birds of Prey, WW84, TSS and Black Adam = $5,828,004,249.

The combined gross of Titanic, Avatar and Avatar 2 through
wednesday = $6,641,065,178.

Now to be fair, Titanic and Avatar made good chunk of change from re-release and 2 of DCEU movies (WW84 and TSS) had day and date re-releases during bad periods of COVID and on the other hand A2 still hasn't completed its run yet.

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(Note to Porkchop: I like the DCEU.)

Official domestic #s for Wednesday are out. Avatar 2 made $7.5 million to rise up to #21 all-time, passing Age of Ultron and Star Wars at $464 million. Next on its kill list as we head into the weekend are The Phantom Menace ($474 million), Frozen 2 ($477 million), Finding Dory ($486m) and Beauty and the Beast ($504m).

Brian, I really don't want to see some weird reddit photoshop of Jake as a Navi Queen Elsa if at all possible.

Black Panther 2 surpassed Shrek for #25 all-time at $441.5 million. It remains fairly hilarious that outside of the Avengers themselves, the most successful pure Marvel movies to date are ones that seem panned by a large swathe of our Entertainment Board - BP1, BP2, and Captain Marvel.

Universal continues to look like a genius for putting Puss in Boots 2 out to compete with Avatar 2 for the families that take the kids to the movies and can't imagine them watching blue aliens for 3 hours. it made $2.28 million on Wednesday and is up to $72.6 million in 15 days.